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Geraint Thomas to win the tour?

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Old 07-22-18, 05:43 PM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by patrickgm60
What's the TdF rule on that? It seems that team leaders borrow team mates' bikes in a crash, yet I recall a rider being sanctioned for this recently. What am I misremembering/confusing?
IIRC a while back, I don't remember who was involved or which race it was, a former teammate of a rider who was then on a different team gave his wheel to the former teammate. This is where it becomes an issue since you are not allowed to provide assistance to another team
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Old 07-22-18, 09:57 PM
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Originally Posted by TCR Rider
IIRC a while back, I don't remember who was involved or which race it was, a former teammate of a rider who was then on a different team gave his wheel to the former teammate. This is where it becomes an issue since you are not allowed to provide assistance to another team
Ah. Thanks; that's what I recalled, but forgot the other-team part. Likely not a rule that is often needed.
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Old 07-23-18, 07:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Caretaker
No, either of them having a mechanical would have to wait for the team/neutral car.
Except sometimes they are not nearby due to circumstances.
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Old 07-23-18, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
I'm not sure what anyone ASO or not could do on the Alpe. You'd need police interlocking arms to stop them. Which, on a 13.8km mountain means you'd need about 20,000 police thereabouts. Which, isn't realistic or attainable.

Lunatics will always get through...what the police should do is arrest anyone who lights up a road flare. That crap needs to stop.
I seem to remember there being more police in the Vuelta on the mountain stage endings. As soon as they see a jerk running with the cyclist they wrestle them out of the way. However, you can't stop everyone intent on causing problems.
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Old 07-23-18, 07:41 AM
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga
as for great britain to come from nowhere to being the biggest player in track and road cycling in the last decade says something. akin to the chinese
swimmers in the same time frame. not expecting it to end well. twere i the queen, i wouldn't be so hot to trot on knighting cyclists...
It's been rather more than the last decade. Following on from Chris Boardman's overwhelming win in the Barcelona Olympics, BC appointed his coach as, I think, Performance director and Sport England adopted the policy of placing the national Lottery money to sports' governing bodies on the basis of likely Olympic and World medals. The first fruits of this showed in the Australian Olympics, with Yvonne McGregor's bronze in the individual pursuit, Jason Queally's Gold in the Kilo and the bronze in the men's team pursuit. The increase in their budget allowed BC to set up a highly organised programme of rider development, testing, improved equipment, etc., and set up specific goals for each event. They concentrated on track, because performance is more easily measured against future requirements and riders were ruthlessly eliminated if their numbers didn't measure up.

At the same time, they set up their youth Go-Ride programme so that clubs (like my own) who met the standards required in coaching, child protection, etc. would receive regional support They greatly increased the number of youth races in all disciplines and were then able to pinpoint youngsters who could be sent to youth development groups. The results of this long-term, extremely well-funded setup was that about 80% of the riders in the Rio Olympics came from a Go-Ride background. My own (thoroughly amateur and unsponsored) club has produced national 'cross and mtb champions and sent on youngsters to sponsored teams who have won or placed in numerous events, on and off road and even, in one case, provided the basic road riding skills which helped to send one member of the Triathlon team to Rio. And we are one of several hundred Go-Ride clubs.

Compare this with the situation in the USA where, AFAIK there is no such organised programme and talent has to rise up almost accidently.

We also have a series of bi-annual regional coaches and volunteers workshops where the latest findings in club coaching and organisation are spread and large sums have been put into building purpose designed facilities such as closed road circuits, and mtb and bmx courses. At the same time, locally funded MTB centres have been developed in Wales, England and Scotland - I wonder if our multiple Downhill champions of both sexes have been connected with this? Naahh.

Naturally, all of this pales into insignificance compared with unproven suspicions of performance enhancing drug use, doesn't it?
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Old 07-23-18, 04:45 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by colombo357
Froome is in a low pressure situation. He can basically noodle his way to the podium at this point (relatively speaking).

Or, when Dumoulin attacks, Froome can chase down Dumoulin and counterattack. If GT is able to keep up, great. If not, Froome will be in yellow.

Froome will win the Stage 20 ITT.
Dumoulin would have to be the favorite for the ITT. But you are right that Dumoulin is the interesting player here. He has to attack on one of the Pyrenees mountain stages, as he knows he is unlikely to make up a minute and a half in the TT. Froome and GT will chase, and it won't be a matter of whom is riding from whom, but rather who has the legs.

It's going to be interesting.
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Old 07-24-18, 02:06 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by bikecrate
I seem to remember there being more police in the Vuelta on the mountain stage endings. As soon as they see a jerk running with the cyclist they wrestle them out of the way. However, you can't stop everyone intent on causing problems.
Police were more aggressive at the Vuelta … and there didn’t need to be 20,000 of the. Just enough to cover a 15-20 yards stretch—when someone gets too obstreperous, grab him and hustle him away. Issue 100 pair of those plastic ziploc handcuffs, and cuff wrists and ankles. Fans would get the word pretty quick.

Originally Posted by colombo357
Froome is in a low pressure situation. He can basically noodle his way to the podium at this point (relatively speaking).

Or, when Dumoulin attacks, Froome can chase down Dumoulin and counterattack. If GT is able to keep up, great. If not, Froome will be in yellow.

Froome will win the Stage 20 ITT.
This is sort of how I see it.

The Maillot Jaune is a huge pain. Young teams and riders think it is a big deal—but all it means s hours of media activities instead of recovery, and hours of defending for the team.

Chris Froome can go to his hotel room after every stage, while Geraint Thomas has thre or four hours of obligations. And Team Sky does the same work regardless of which one is third or fourth in the queue.

Froome only has to cover Dumouilin—and you can bet Sky will do the work for him. They have top for Thomas anyway, to preserve the GC lead. So Froome gets carried along, and whenever he feels good he can move—or he can wait until the time trial.

As soon as I saw Thomas win the yellow, I thought about how Sky and Froome are focused on winning overall—not anything else. Stage wins, team pride, air time for the sponsors … nada. All they care about is the top step in Pparis—and wearing yellow Before Stage 20 doesn’t help get you there.
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Old 07-25-18, 12:46 PM
  #33  
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Surprised looks like Thomas is gonna win unless Froome has an amazing time trial. Seeing Froome crack is nice. I wonder if all the boos he is getting is draining him. Looks like he won’t beat lance Armstrong’s record.
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Old 07-25-18, 12:49 PM
  #34  
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No spoiler alert needed for this post because I am only going to say "Yes."
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Old 07-25-18, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by MyTi
Looks like he won’t beat lance Armstrong’s record.
For podcasts?
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Old 07-25-18, 01:44 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by MyTi
Surprised looks like Thomas is gonna win unless Froome has an amazing time trial. Seeing Froome crack is nice. I wonder if all the boos he is getting is draining him. Looks like he won’t beat lance Armstrong’s record.
I dunno. Maybe in future years he won't double up with the Giro and will be fresher for the TdF. We can see here that he is beatable, but he's still going to be a major threat in coming years.

But assuming Thomas wins this year, what's the situation for next year? Does anybody know if Thomas has a multi-year contract with Sky? It's hard to see how Sky would run both of them again on the TdF. Thomas might go over to another team to compete (or for that matter, Froome), but why would either of them want to ride for another team when the support at Sky is second to none? And assuming Thomas wins this year, I can't imagine that they'd exile him to the Giro and not let him try again at the Tour next year?

It's not like the Wiggins/Froome situation where Wiggins clearly wanted out of road racing and bequeathed the future to Froome.
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Old 07-25-18, 02:00 PM
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If Froome makes a visible effort to work for Thomas in the final mountain stage, I think it'll actually make him a more popular rider.
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Old 07-25-18, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by MyTi
Surprised looks like Thomas is gonna win unless Froome has an amazing time trial. Seeing Froome crack is nice. I wonder if all the boos he is getting is draining him. Looks like he won’t beat lance Armstrong’s record.
I didn't realize Armstrong had any records?
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Old 07-25-18, 02:31 PM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by MinnMan
Dumoulin would have to be the favorite for the ITT. But you are right that Dumoulin is the interesting player here. He has to attack on one of the Pyrenees mountain stages, as he knows he is unlikely to make up a minute and a half in the TT. Froome and GT will chase, and it won't be a matter of whom is riding from whom, but rather who has the legs.

It's going to be interesting.
Even if Dumoulin does attack, it is unlikely he will be able to make up time. Both Sky riders would almost certainly have to be on a bad day to not be able to real him in, given the strength of the entire Sky team. The final mountain stage finishes downhill and Dumoulin doesn't appear to have any teammates who can help pace him in the mountains or help him maintain any advantage in the flats if he were to somehow gain an advantage. Unless Thomas has a bad day on the last mountain stage, he should win. Domoulin is the world TT champ, but Thomas is the British TT champ and I don't feel Dumoulin can make up that much time in the TT. If Domoulin doesn't have a bad day in the mountains, I think he will finish 2nd ahead of Froome.
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Old 07-25-18, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by CerveloJoe
Even if Dumoulin does attack, it is unlikely he will be able to make up time. Both Sky riders would almost certainly have to be on a bad day to not be able to real him in, given the strength of the entire Sky team. The final mountain stage finishes downhill and Dumoulin doesn't appear to have any teammates who can help pace him in the mountains or help him maintain any advantage in the flats if he were to somehow gain an advantage. Unless Thomas has a bad day on the last mountain stage, he should win. Domoulin is the world TT champ, but Thomas is the British TT champ and I don't feel Dumoulin can make up that much time in the TT. If Domoulin doesn't have a bad day in the mountains, I think he will finish 2nd ahead of Froome.
Yeah, you're right. If there was a day for Dumoulin to attack, it would have been today. Instead, Quintana attacked. But I was right that the real test was which of the two - Thomas or Froome - could answer the attack. Froome cracked, despite Bernal's efforts, and so Thomas is in the driver's seat.

The downhill finish tomorrow could help Froome - he's a great descender - but I can't see him making up 2 minutes that way. maybe 20 seconds.
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Old 07-25-18, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan
Yeah, you're right. If there was a day for Dumoulin to attack, it would have been today. Instead, Quintana attacked. But I was right that the real test was which of the two - Thomas or Froome - could answer the attack. Froome cracked, despite Bernal's efforts, and so Thomas is in the driver's seat.

The downhill finish tomorrow could help Froome - he's a great descender - but I can't see him making up 2 minutes that way. maybe 20 seconds.
It certainly isn't over. As we know, a terrible day in the mountains can lose a rider minutes and no help from the team will be of any benefit ,unless the struggling rider holds onto the team car
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Old 07-25-18, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan
The downhill finish tomorrow could help Froome - he's a great descender - but I can't see him making up 2 minutes that way. maybe 20 seconds.
It's not tomorrow it's the day after tomorrow.
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Old 07-25-18, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by CerveloJoe
I didn't realize Armstrong had any records?
if he doesn’t then no one does unless there are those that think you can do the tour clean.

nice to see Quintana bounce back
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Old 07-25-18, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by MyTi


if he doesn’t then no one does unless there are those that think you can do the tour clean.

nice to see Quintana bounce back
That’s the million dollar question isn’t it?

I was happy to see Quintana have a good day also.
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Old 07-25-18, 04:05 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by CerveloJoe
It certainly isn't over. As we know, a terrible day in the mountains can lose a rider minutes and no help from the team will be of any benefit ,unless the struggling rider holds onto the team car
if Thomas cracks, Froome still cannot catch Dumoulin. if Dumoulin cracks, Froome still cannot catch Thomas.If all three crack ... boy howdy, i wish Dan Martin were further up the GC. Roglic could have the day of his life if the first three cannot sustain the effort after today.
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Old 07-25-18, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by MyTi


if he doesn’t then no one does unless there are those that think you can do the tour clean.
What's stopping anyone?
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Old 07-25-18, 05:32 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by Caretaker
What's stopping anyone?
Human nature I suppose...to win at all costs? Problem is even the slightest edge in this sport is such a huge advantage. Were talking about seconds. When Lance did it everyone was clearly doping that's why they can't even name a tour winner in his championship days. Any cycling legend is a question mark.

That said I still enjoy watching the sport and have accepted the way the sport is.
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Old 07-25-18, 08:03 PM
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Originally Posted by MyTi
Human nature I suppose...to win at all costs? Problem is even the slightest edge in this sport is such a huge advantage. Were talking about seconds. When Lance did it everyone was clearly doping that's why they can't even name a tour winner in his championship days. Any cycling legend is a question mark.

That said I still enjoy watching the sport and have accepted the way the sport is.
Yeah. It's hard to know what to believe. It's a shame really, but as you say, accept the possibilities, move on and enjoy the sport or stop watching. I guess I'm in agreement with you since I've chosen the former. It does make you wonder who really are the strongest riders in recent memory though. I've come to the conclusion the strongest will win under any circumstance, but that isn't necessarily true if the enhancements aren't the same and equal or the possibility that these things have greater or lesser effect on each individual.

Oh well, every sport seems to have similar hurdles.
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Old 07-25-18, 08:07 PM
  #49  
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People said at the Giro that Froome was done, then we had this superman effort at Stage 19

Giro d'Italia 2018: Stage 19 Results | Cyclingnews.com

Froome was dead and buried a week ago. Even after his victory on Monte Zoncolan and his solid stage 16 time trial, he started the day fourth overall, 3:22 down on Yates and 2:54 down on Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb). He now leads the race by 40 seconds from Dumoulin, with Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) third at 4:17, though the numbers don't begin to cover the half of it.
I do think Froome will work with Thomas because the outcry from the world would be deafening. But we'll see.
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Old 07-25-18, 08:35 PM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by gpsblake
People said at the Giro that Froome was done, then we had this superman effort at Stage 19

Giro d'Italia 2018: Stage 19 Results | Cyclingnews.com



I do think Froome will work with Thomas because the outcry from the world would be deafening. But we'll see.
From is in a difficult situation. He doesn't absolutely have to pull back time on Dumoulin before the TT, but I'm sure he'd like to. If Dumoulin has the legs on Friday, he will follow any aggressive move makes to protect his advantage. Even if Dumoulin is on a great day Friday, with the down hill finish, I just can't see him being able to pick up time. Sky is just too strong and the likelihood of Froome and Thomas having an off day is very remote imo. Froome really only has a chance to gain significant time on Dumoulin if Tom has a bad day himself. He's shown that he has the ability to at least stay in touch with the Sky train. We'll see. Hopefully we'll have a few surprises.
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