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Supply Chain Blues

Old 09-26-20, 09:52 AM
  #1  
Danhedonia
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Supply Chain Blues

Like many I find the bike shortage frustrating. What I do not understand is the duration - I "get" that spiking demand means fewer assembled bikes for sale, but why is it taking so long for things like parts to reach the market?

When will we see a more normal level of inventory of bike things?

What are the challenges mfrs. are facing?

Any/all insights most welcome.
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Old 09-26-20, 10:09 AM
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I have always bought Tires, tube's ,chains ahead of time when they are on Sale.
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Old 09-26-20, 10:20 AM
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what challenges...where have you been the last 6 months?
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Old 09-26-20, 10:37 AM
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There is no problems the world is fine. 200K deaths in the U.S. is just fake news.

On a more serious note...there has been a global pandemic that started late in 2019 and spread like wildfire throughout the world. It hasn't gone away through any sort of magic and unfortunately due to people deciding their own personal comfort is more important than doing their part to help lessen the spread of the pandemic it is getting worse.

Right now Covid is causing massive shortages throughout many different industries and because a lot of them are still out of the office or in some cases focusing production on more medical related goods we will say delays for a long time. Maybe once we get the global pandemic under control and have a reliable, safe and widely available vaccine, we can have more normal levels of production.

You can also take this opportunity to talk with a local or semi local builder to get your dream bike. A lot of U.S. builders are still out there and building bikes for us and some really nice stuff so it might be a good time to get that sweet new ride and support a small business.
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Old 09-26-20, 10:45 AM
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I've been in Albuquerque. My wife is a nurse, and I am a schoolteacher working for a Trumped Up school board who are "proud to be returning to school." (e.g., forced march to school building or lose your job, which has already resulted in positives).

Not sure why some feel there is a necessity for a lecture about the pandemic.

I'm looking for insight into how and why the pandemic has impacted the supply chain for bicycles for such a long time. There are other industries that have resumed production - or perhaps won't ever reappear.

If you have some insights into the how's and why's, please post them.
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Old 09-26-20, 10:48 AM
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Originally Posted by veganbikes

You can also take this opportunity to talk with a local or semi local builder to get your dream bike. A lot of U.S. builders are still out there and building bikes for us and some really nice stuff so it might be a good time to get that sweet new ride and support a small business.
The guy who built my Engin also owns a LBS. He just told my ex, who is having one built, that if it weren’t for the custom bike end of things, he’d be out of business because he cannot get bikes to sell.
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Old 09-26-20, 11:01 AM
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i love it, i have a few bikes so supply hasn't been a problem (other than size large summer gloves) and vehicle traffic is null. at the height of the panic i thoroughly enjoyed riding through downtown Washington DC in some sort of doomsday movie. just me and the capital police (god bless them)

my guess is that this years production is over and they are working on next year so supply is finite.
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Old 09-26-20, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by indyfabz
The guy who built my Engin also owns a LBS. He just told my ex, who is having one built, that if it weren’t for the custom bike end of things, he’d be out of business because he cannot get bikes to sell.
Yeah we are feeling the squeeze, luckily we were ordering like mad and still are and looking in unique places to get supply but we are starting to run lower and lower.


In terms of the OP, the lecture on the GLOBAL PANDEMIC is quite important as people just don't seem to understand what that is. We think magically the production just goes into full throttle because we are out of stuff and unfortunately that isn't the case. I know people are sick and tired of the pandemic, I certainly am but until we figure out the new normal we are going to see slow production. Especially until the U.S. gets their fecal matter in order and gets the pandemic under control and allows people who know what they are doing because they are knowledgeable medical professionals run the show and get everything in line a lot of countries don't want anything to do with the U.S. I don't blame them, I wouldn't want to be shipping goods and supporting a country who thinks the pandemic is a joke.
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Old 09-26-20, 11:51 AM
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On the topic of supply chain - I heard a piece on NPR the other day. It seems that port cities are - UNDERSTANDABLY - reluctant to let crews from cargo ships enter their cities, which they need to do to be replaced by a new crew at the end of their contract. Similarly, they're reluctant to have the new crews fly in to their airports and go through the city to crew the ships. Some crews have been on board for > a year. Here's a recent NYT piece about it.

Also, apparently ports are not so happy about letting ships in to load and unload. AND there's a certain amount of "trade war" going on. Almost all of it is COVID related, and maybe could be fixed with a large investment of time and money and effort. Seems to me that it's a soluble logistics problem. For example, if a crew has been on a ship for >2 weeks with no physical contact with anyone, a simple COVID test for everyone should clear them, right?

Anyhow, the problem is real and it's only going to get worse if industries and governments don't get together and do something.
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Old 09-26-20, 12:29 PM
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so you are upset that you have to go back to work yet don't understand what's the hold up with your bike parts
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Old 09-26-20, 12:43 PM
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I just started working part time at my LBS because they were getting behind building new bikes to sell. I am working on 2021 models. Not sure what's going to happen when they sell through those. The supply has been filling back up, for example a batch of new cassettes came in for the first time this year. But there are still things like 26" tires that are in short supply and are being acquired through barter. In general, the more expensive a part is, the easier it is to get. That tells me the demand side is important to understanding the shortages.

I don't really understand how bike manufacturing works, even though I used to work for a bike manufacturer. But the increased demand from new or lapsed customers in combination with increased demand from existing customers makes for shortages. There were big shortages back in the early '70s bike boom, this is similar to that. A couple of years later it had died down and the suppliers had caught up.
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Old 09-26-20, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Danhedonia
Like many I find the bike shortage frustrating. What I do not understand is the duration - I "get" that spiking demand means fewer assembled bikes for sale, but why is it taking so long for things like parts to reach the market?

When will we see a more normal level of inventory of bike things?

What are the challenges mfrs. are facing?
Reduced staffing, at many companies.

Increased quarantine delays with postal carriers, including international ports and transfer/distribution facilities. Particularly as it's still uncertain how long this bug can last on surfaces and in certain situations.

Reduced productivity and capacity, due to impeded procedures and staffing efficiencies.

And the likelihood that many supply chains involve several links from originating source to the ultimate destination.

Add all that up, and you get a delay added to another delay elsewhere, added to lack of materials/components at another level, and so on.

Example -- I'm waiting to order certain parts from my local bike shop, for example. From a supplier overseas with its own supply chain woes. Facing international port/distribution delays due to COVID (out of "an abundance of caution"). Which needs to transfer modes once it reaches my own country. Delays of which have only increased the backlog of demand (at the shop level) for the items in question. Which means I might well not get the parts, even if they arrive soon on-shore.

A simpler example might be: The local eatery, which gets its supplies from various companies, and which gets its food ingredients from various sources, many (even most) of which will have delays themselves. Add to which, the COVID-related dictates from government, that as an eatery thou shalt not serve more than X number of people in Y space, yadda yadda yadda. Many shops have had to cut back on staff, increase costs of compliance (sanitizers, layout, precautionary barriers, etc). Easiest "go" of it is a local eatery I've seen, a hot dog shop with very little seating anyway, with only a couple of staff, and lots of space already between the customers in line and the staff cooking up stuff. So, all they had to do was post a few signs, acquire a few jugs of sanitizer, remove the seats, and allow only ~4-6 people inside at a time. They're doing a booming business, all things considered, with precious few added costs due to this mess.

I'm sure every business is a bit different, depending on the complexities of its chains of supply.

Got to wonder how the so-called "just-in-time" organizations are coping, given their supply chains are undoubtedly impacted to a degree. Makes it tough to keep a line rolling right along, when inventories tend to be thinner at such operations.

When will a "more normal" situation exist? When disruptions cease and smoother operations occur throughout the chain. Until then, there'll continue to be delays at various spots.

JMO

Last edited by Clyde1820; 09-27-20 at 03:17 AM. Reason: spelling
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Old 09-26-20, 01:30 PM
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We forgot to mention that the pandemic resulted in huge numbers of people here in the U.S. (and elsewhere I assume) having a lot of free time. EVERYBODY and their 3rd cousin was either buying a new bike OR taking bikes out of storage to get overhauled. As well, my LBS is on about 1/2 the amount of functional shop hours that were normal. It seems to me that upgrade parts are available while repair parts (tires, tubes, disc pads and rotors, chains, etc....) are in short supply.
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Old 09-26-20, 09:40 PM
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Yes, I'm upset about going back to work. Yes, I also would like to understand more about where bike parts are in all of this. Always fun to see apparently grown men build straw men on the internet to knock them down and congratulate themselves.

Thanks, Clyde1820 genejockey , I'm curious as to how Amazon is shipping recently-made Chinese crap all over, yet there are the interruptions you cited. I do appreciate the insights.

I used to think bicycles were a niche market - somehow, I was convinced otherwise. Not Wiliers and Cervelos, perhaps, but I didn't think it would be tough to find basics. But it is. Are the facilities in Taiwan and elsewhere closed? The pawl factory in Bulgaria can't ship? I'd find it fascinating to know the details.
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Old 09-26-20, 10:07 PM
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This publication might give you some insights. I used to receive it while working in the industry and it seemed to be current and aware.

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/news?page=1
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Old 09-26-20, 10:22 PM
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I suspect all the factories mainly located in China are all shut down or running at a severely reduced capacity due to the beer virus.
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Old 09-27-20, 02:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Danhedonia

I'm looking for insight into how and why the pandemic has impacted the supply chain for bicycles for such a long time. There are other industries that have resumed production - or perhaps won't ever reappear.

If you have some insights into the how's and why's, please post them.
Because the borders are closed.

Because China isn't shipping out..

Here in Australia there are a lot of things we can't get now.

You do know that the pandemic is a global thing, not just in the US.
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Old 09-27-20, 03:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
Because the borders are closed.

Because China isn't shipping out.
Probably one of the greatest globally-impacting factor, right there.

I wonder what percentage of all bike components come from mainland China and Taiwan. I know that I've purchased a couple parts that shipped out of Taiwan, since this COVID thing started. Took several weeks beyond what I'd expected, though (from the tracking number's "delays" in-transit) much of that was clearly sitting in regional transfer/distribution points as they got quarantined along the way.
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Old 09-27-20, 03:25 AM
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New production is shipping now, I am not sure what isn't shipping. The interesting thing for me is some parts apparently are only made on a fairly rare basis. The cassettes I mentioned above were only in certain popular sizes, but Shimano 11-25 and 12-28 were not due in until December. Lots of stuff is due in December, not sure if that is a real date or a "sometime in the future, don't ask me now" date.

Bikes are on allocation, if a shop tries to order too many they get the order cut back by some measure of what is fair.
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Old 09-27-20, 09:08 AM
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I've ordered things this summer that were absolutely shipped out of mainland China (tools, clothing). These shipped in June, July and August. Conversely, it seems that Shimano has experienced a great disruption. SRAM not so much. I wish I knew more about that.


*****************
To those who keep asking about my level of awareness, and then scolding me, I have a question. Do you know who you are talking to? One of my friends runs an epidemiological virology lab (as in: he's the director, former Harvard Med School scientist) in Geneva. He did some of the first genetic sequencing on SARS-Cov-2 (what you call COVID); this is important because genetic markers denote degree of mutations as well as contagion patterns. I also posted about COVID in early January on my Facebook.because I knew the Chinese government had suppressed information, and a spread to that many people implied a genesis long before the claimed late Nov/early Dec date.
In fact, if you look at the implications of the genetic markers of patients 1 and 2 in Seattle (which I did, courtesy of my friend the virologist), it's disturbing: these two people did not know each other but almost certainly crossed paths randomly, somewhere. That meant what we now know: in plain language, this virus is incredibly contagious and persistent.
Finally, my wife is an RN and volunteered this summer for the Medical Reserve. They had reconfigured a Hilton downtown as a clinic for COVID positive people to be quarantined when they lacked their own ability to do so (e.g., homeless people).

Stop wasting time attacking me and projecting. If you find my question insensitive, say so: I can hear that. My world overlaps with the Navajo Nation; two of my coworkers have lost 8 and 5 family members, respectively. One of my close coworkers lost a parent.
I was sick in March and several doctors assured me that my negative test was a false-negative (I don't care, because I was terribly sick and am just grateful to still be here, albeit it has been very difficult to get a deep breath since March).

I'm aware that the supply chain is broken because of the pandemic - I am asking for details because I am a curious person. I don't know if the plants in Taiwan are closed due to the virus. I don't know if those plants supply 70, 90, or 99% of bikes and bike parts in the world. I was curious and wanted to know more about that situation.

So I asked here, figuring some people would know more than I did. Genuine questions should never be dismissed, and presuming you know things you don't (like things about my knowledge base and level of concern) is intellectually poor practice.
You don't know how the virus has impacted Shimano's factories and/or contractors? Maybe someone does, and you might also learn if that person shows up and offers insight. Or maybe you think I'm an insensitive jerk for asking. But at least take the time to ask questions and learn before you grandstand.
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Old 09-27-20, 09:29 AM
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In late July I ordered a new recumbent bike, a Bacchetta Giro A20, from their home base in Florida. A week later they emailed me that they were having trouble finding parts for the 2x11 drive train and would I be interested in a 3x9 setup? Sure, OK, if it would speed up the process. Not long after, another message that a contact in Sweden located 2x11 bits in Europe which would be available in Florida in a week or two. OK, sounds alright. Later got a message that the Euro parts existed only on paper but that they should have 3x9 stuff in a few days for the build. At any rate, they got the bike built up as a 3x9 with gearing very similar to what I've been using on other bikes, and with a reasonable price reduction. Bike got shipped a month after order. Normal turnaround time for them is a week.

UPS Freight got the bike from St. Petersburg to Indianapolis in three days but then it sat in the terminal for 13 days before delivery to me in the Indy suburbs. A UPS customer service rep messaged me at some point that they were experiencing manpower shortages - not sure if he was referencing Indy or UPS Freight in general.
Happy to get the bike that I wanted in spite of Covid-19's impact on parts and shipping.
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Old 09-27-20, 10:10 PM
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I actually have knowledge of UPS - they simply can't staff. They're incredibly overwhelmed -we know people at the ABQ shipping center who say that the backup is epic.

My curiosity about the specifics may seem crummy or morbid but it remains. I feel like delays are easy to understand; and the spike in demand accounts for so much. But I also feel like machined metal products .... almost evaporated. And I know nothing about that world. Do ball bearings get made halfway around the world from where they're inserted into brackets? Is grease made in one part of China, and has to go through a 3rd party to get to Taiwan?

Are the plants in Taiwan closed because everyone there is staying home?

Does anyone know?
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Old 09-28-20, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Danhedonia
I actually have knowledge of UPS - they simply can't staff. They're incredibly overwhelmed -we know people at the ABQ shipping center who say that the backup is epic.

My curiosity about the specifics may seem crummy or morbid but it remains. I feel like delays are easy to understand; and the spike in demand accounts for so much. But I also feel like machined metal products .... almost evaporated. And I know nothing about that world. Do ball bearings get made halfway around the world from where they're inserted into brackets? Is grease made in one part of China, and has to go through a 3rd party to get to Taiwan?

Are the plants in Taiwan closed because everyone there is staying home?

Does anyone know?
why don't you make a few phone calls to them and let us know? I am sure they have phone service there.
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Old 09-28-20, 09:10 AM
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There is a quite a bit of misleading information contained in the posts in this thread. The OP's topic is broadly related "supply chain" which affects end item assemblers such as contract-built branded bikes. It is true that in order to ship completed bikes, one must have the complete set of necessary components, a finished frame, and the labor necessary to assemble/check and package the bike for shipment. Some component factories have been affected by the virus, although I have no first hand knowledge of this. Also, assembly and shipping labor may likely have been affected as well. Shipping never ceased from China (as far as my research has been able to tell), but rates slowed. The larger effect has been due to the unwillingness of some countries to accept shipments, delays in quarantine of shipping containers, and delays in inspections and customs approvals in recipient countries.

I have continued to receive parts steadily through this fall 2019 to spring 2020 outbreak, albeit at slowed rates. Plan your projects accordingly. For finished bicycles "ready to buy", you will have to wait. There are still alternatives through drop shippers and the like.

EDIT: Shipping from Japan has been stopped indefinitely.
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Old 09-28-20, 09:39 AM
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Lessee, people can't go partying like normal so get bikes and ride. More demand for bikes, both new and used, and manufacturing capacity is used up. Now people are riding and parts are wearing out. Parts don't magically appear out of thin air, they are manufactured; usually like the bikes themselves, in batches. Again, production capacity used up. So it's all a matter of increased use without a corresponding increase in manufacturing capacity. The real question is, why are some people surprised by this?
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