Will Electric Bikes Overtake Standard Bike Sales?
#226
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If I ever lost my mind this is what I'd get.
Aria E-Ultegra 2019
I'd have to change to Campy though.
#227
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I know I want an Electric Bike pretty bad. Being middle aged I'm not healthy as I used to be and quite frankly it a bit of a uphill battle for me. I just like the idea of being able to keep up with friends, and I think it would eventually get me in shape as I'd be spending more time traveling longer distances and your still moving.
#228
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I'm mystified by the anti electric bike sentiment in the US. E-bikes are embraced in Europe, as are bicycles in general.
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Nice
If I ever lost my mind this is what I'd get.
Aria E-Ultegra 2019
I'd have to change to Campy though.
#230
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False. These are direct observations based on dealing with bike shop owners and managers over the past 3 decades.
Now you're out of touch. See above.
And yet more and more shops are closing every year. They've been unsuccessful regardless of their efforts.
Neither here nor there. Off topic. What's the point?
When did I ever "blame" the bike industry for not inventing lithium batteries? You are putting words in my mouth.
This is just weird, off-topic rambling.
Again, rambling with no point or purpose.
Again, you are arguing with yourself. This is a pattern throughout your very long, rambling post.
The most widely sold bikes are hybrids, cruisers, and MTBs, mostly under 1000 or even 500 bucks. The "city bike" and "commuter bike" are emerging categories. Super record and Di2 are nowhere to be seen on the bikes that pass by my house every morning. That stuff would get stolen in a heartbeat. The prevailing trend is "whatever works, or something nice if you can afford it."
Without those things, the e-bike is a non-starter. With those things, it's a foregone conclusion. So the e-bike literally grew out of inventions driven by non-bike-related industries -- laptop computers, wind turbines, electric cars, etc.. It's a lucky accident, not something that the bike industry overlooked or dismissed.
There have been two areas where the technology needed to develop, and it might have been reasonable for the mainstream industry to wait before jumping on the bandwagon. First, the earliest e-bikes looked like contraptions that were hacked together from spare parts, with ungainly hub motors, wires all over the place, and cantankerous controls (according to e-cyclists whom I've spoken to). Newer designs seem to have settled on mid-drive, better integration of the motors and batteries in the frame, and controls that make bikes ride more like bikes. Second, the price of the batteries has been dropping steadily -- I've read 15% per year.
But will the e-bike save cycling? Not by itself. The reason is that physical effort is not the only obstacle to cycling. There's still climate, safety, and infrastructure. And while e-bikes alleviate the distance problem to some extent, there are still going to be distances that can't be covered on an e-bike by most people, so urban planning and public transportation have to fit into the mix.
#231
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Yes - Until governments crack down on them and start requiring a motorcycle license to ride them on public roads, and ban them from multi use paths. It will happen, just a matter of time.
(As they get more popular, more and more people will act the fool while riding them and end up in body bags, or injuring/killing pedstrians on MUPs, prompting the public to tell their legislatures to "DO SOMETHING," which will result in the motorcycle license requirement and prohibition on using MUPs)
(As they get more popular, more and more people will act the fool while riding them and end up in body bags, or injuring/killing pedstrians on MUPs, prompting the public to tell their legislatures to "DO SOMETHING," which will result in the motorcycle license requirement and prohibition on using MUPs)
Making some one with an e-bike have to buy a license is just another example of tax and spend b'crats money grab, and a loss of freedom!!!!!!
#232
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Making some one with an e-bike have to buy a license is just another example of tax and spend b'crats money grab, and a loss of freedom!!!!!!
#233
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Thread Starter
Just 35 pounds! Full carbon frame, 10 mm rear suspension, taillight integrated with the fender, powered by the battery. Center mounted battery. One of the lightest city style e-bikes, with a very competitive $4300 MSRP. Yes, this is the year of electric bikes.
Last edited by radroad; 12-14-18 at 04:50 PM.
#234
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People who are avid cyclists are not going to switch as long as they are healthy. The ebikes appeal to a different market: the infirm and wanna-be cyclists/commuters who want out of their cars and traffic but are too lazy/lack the desire to put in the effort of real cycling.
I beg to ****ing differ. (Excuse the profanity, but I feel strongly about this).
You never, ever know when your health may change. I've been an avid cyclist (some would say obsessed) for over a decade. Then my internal organs decided to try and kill me; they didn't, but I am not yet back to full cycling form, and I may never be. I do not look like someone with a chronic illness or a disability, but I have both.
I didn't want to go back to driving, but I couldn't continue commuting by bike, as it was just draining me too much (and it's not even a long distance, which made it doubly frustrating). And I never had any energy left for recreational rides.
So I tried a pedal-assist e-bike, with trepidation, but within ten minutes I was sold. It still feels like riding a bike, all the parts I love; I still need to use my skills and my muscles. I can just do it for longer without exhausting myself and causing myself days of pain, and I can carry groceries and such home quite easily. Even if I were fully fit I would still consider an e-bike as my primary urban vehicle and I would encourage others to do so.
E-bikes are not for wanna-bes or lazy people; they're bikes, that are suited for specific purposes. Cut the judgement, thanks, it's not a good look.
#235
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Seems like radroad is making a lot of editorial comment on other opinions ... To what point? Seems like baiting to me, and kinda gets in the way of following this thread ...
Anyway, someone above said the industry has standardized on mid-drives. Not sure I agree with that.
I really wanted a Bafang H400 full-on solution for my build, but no one in the US or Canada seems to sell it ... Tq sensing and divided power input to the rear wheel with minimal wear and tear on the existing drive train. All good. So that's one vote for rear hub. I think it's big heavy cumbersome rear hubs that we are moving away from ...
And in northern Europe where it snows, there plenty of front hub motor users - why ? It gives them two wheel drive. Motor in PAS 1 mode in front and human power out back. Works quite well when your issue is actually commuting and not playing
I'm not convinced that the world will all be mid-drive ...
Anyway, someone above said the industry has standardized on mid-drives. Not sure I agree with that.
I really wanted a Bafang H400 full-on solution for my build, but no one in the US or Canada seems to sell it ... Tq sensing and divided power input to the rear wheel with minimal wear and tear on the existing drive train. All good. So that's one vote for rear hub. I think it's big heavy cumbersome rear hubs that we are moving away from ...
And in northern Europe where it snows, there plenty of front hub motor users - why ? It gives them two wheel drive. Motor in PAS 1 mode in front and human power out back. Works quite well when your issue is actually commuting and not playing
I'm not convinced that the world will all be mid-drive ...
#236
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Thread Starter
Fascinating interview with Chris Cocalis, founder of Pivot Cycles. I had the distinct pleasure of riding a pivot a few years back at an mtb festival and was absolutely shocked (no pun intended) at how dialed the bike was. I felt like if it had had just a tad more suspension travel it would've been just about perfect. Also shocking was the price: nearly $7K for Shimano six components! Not a shabby group, but dang, those bikes don't come cheap!
Anyway, in this interview, he says 70% of high end mtb sales are e-bikes in Europe. Pivot's entry into the emtb market, the Shuttle, was sold out for six months at the time of the interview (mid 2018). Cocalis says demand for emts's is significantly stronger in the US than in Europe, meaning high end mtb sales are taking off.
Cocalis thinks 35 emtb's are possible in the future. Doesn't say when. :-)
Also, the e-bike is a moped meme is just dumb. Mopeds weigh up to 300 lbs, run on gas, are very noisy, are far more powerful, and are typically operated with the throttle.
In comparison, e-bikes currently weigh on average, around 50 lbs, but some models are already weighing in as low as 25 lbs. The motors are relatively quiet, battery powered, and as I have pointed out before, none of the big 3 even make an e-bike with throttle anyway. That means you MUST pedal.
I do agree with Cocalis that 2019 is the year when e-bikes are actually starting to look like quality products. The quality is no longer embarrassing, as it certainly was as recently as 5 years ago. The big 3 and just about every other brand has embraced e-bikes, not out of any hatred of standard bicycles, but because practically speaking the demand is overwhelming.
Anyway, in this interview, he says 70% of high end mtb sales are e-bikes in Europe. Pivot's entry into the emtb market, the Shuttle, was sold out for six months at the time of the interview (mid 2018). Cocalis says demand for emts's is significantly stronger in the US than in Europe, meaning high end mtb sales are taking off.
Cocalis thinks 35 emtb's are possible in the future. Doesn't say when. :-)
Also, the e-bike is a moped meme is just dumb. Mopeds weigh up to 300 lbs, run on gas, are very noisy, are far more powerful, and are typically operated with the throttle.
In comparison, e-bikes currently weigh on average, around 50 lbs, but some models are already weighing in as low as 25 lbs. The motors are relatively quiet, battery powered, and as I have pointed out before, none of the big 3 even make an e-bike with throttle anyway. That means you MUST pedal.
I do agree with Cocalis that 2019 is the year when e-bikes are actually starting to look like quality products. The quality is no longer embarrassing, as it certainly was as recently as 5 years ago. The big 3 and just about every other brand has embraced e-bikes, not out of any hatred of standard bicycles, but because practically speaking the demand is overwhelming.
Last edited by radroad; 12-18-18 at 03:12 AM.
#237
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Yeah, as long as they don't have throttle - I'm very cool with saying eBikes are just another bike.
But, as soon as you add a throttle, they are mopeds in Europe. Prolly be that way here soon ...
And that's OK. There will be a market for electric mopeds too.
Bultaco, for one, is really trying to fill that market
But, as soon as you add a throttle, they are mopeds in Europe. Prolly be that way here soon ...
And that's OK. There will be a market for electric mopeds too.
Bultaco, for one, is really trying to fill that market
#238
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Thread Starter
A lot of direct to consumer models have throttles, especially if they have hub motors. Two caveats: 1) throttles are always limited to 20 mph max, and 2) you can't rely on the throttle exclusively: your battery will drain very, very quickly. On flat terrain, you can drain a huge 1K amp hour battery in maybe 20-30 miles. Uphill, you might only get single digits.
Even then, simply adding a throttle doesn't make an e-bike a moped; there are just too many gross differences between e-bikes and mopeds to even entertain the notion that the comparison is even halfway plausible. E-bikes will become far lighter over the next few years and battery capacity will increase significantly as well. Pivot, Focus, Specialized and other smaller startups are pushing the tech envelope very hard. The transformation in the industry in 2019 alone took me by surprise. Seriously, what kind of weirdo thinks a 25 lb ebike which is visually indistinguishable from a standard bicycle and 300 lbs gas guzzling, noisy, smelly emissions spewing moped are one and the same?
As sales increase, R&D budgets will improve, resulting in better bikes and therefore stronger sales in a constant cycle (no pun intended). Previous gen. e-bikes have not been especially impressive, but there is just no turning back at this point. The technology is improving rapidly and demand is close to insatiable. Both direct to consumer brands as well as some boutiques like Pivot can't keep up with demand at all. Pre-orders, often taking many months to fulfill are the norm. Even some smaller startups are backed up on orders just a few months out of the gate.
Whether one loves, hates or ignores e-bikes, there is little question that they will take a place of leadership in the bicycling industry. Will e-bikes save the bicycling industry? No, it will take the industry to heights it has never seen.
Even then, simply adding a throttle doesn't make an e-bike a moped; there are just too many gross differences between e-bikes and mopeds to even entertain the notion that the comparison is even halfway plausible. E-bikes will become far lighter over the next few years and battery capacity will increase significantly as well. Pivot, Focus, Specialized and other smaller startups are pushing the tech envelope very hard. The transformation in the industry in 2019 alone took me by surprise. Seriously, what kind of weirdo thinks a 25 lb ebike which is visually indistinguishable from a standard bicycle and 300 lbs gas guzzling, noisy, smelly emissions spewing moped are one and the same?
As sales increase, R&D budgets will improve, resulting in better bikes and therefore stronger sales in a constant cycle (no pun intended). Previous gen. e-bikes have not been especially impressive, but there is just no turning back at this point. The technology is improving rapidly and demand is close to insatiable. Both direct to consumer brands as well as some boutiques like Pivot can't keep up with demand at all. Pre-orders, often taking many months to fulfill are the norm. Even some smaller startups are backed up on orders just a few months out of the gate.
Whether one loves, hates or ignores e-bikes, there is little question that they will take a place of leadership in the bicycling industry. Will e-bikes save the bicycling industry? No, it will take the industry to heights it has never seen.
#239
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It's not me being weird, the EU and their laws. Add a throttle and you are not an e-bike - their stance. I just happen to agree with it.
Since the discussion leading into these last posts was trending into the question of whether an eBike was/is just another bike, or not ... In my mind, an eBike is a PAS machine only. Add a throttle and you are not "just another bike" (one that requires pedaling to move), you are now fully motorized transportation ...
I've been riding motorcycles for over 50 years and never in my wildest nightmares met a "300 pound" moped. Not even close. Even 200 pounds would be pushing it for 99% of them. There are now a number of fat eBikes that are pushing 48 kilos, so things are not that different, weight wise.
And please introduce me to a 25 lb eBike with a range of over 7 feet, and the capability to mount a luggage rack (to actually haul something...).
There has to be a logical break-point between motor assist bicycling and motorized transport. How would you define the logical boundary? Presence or absence of throttle is an easy one for law enforcement. You are on a non-motorized trail and you get caught with a throttle bike - you get cited. No radar traps, no speed runs, nada.
Speed limits are much harder to judge and enforce, especially since we know that fit riders on slippery bikes can exceed them easily w/o any motors ... So It seems speed is the wrong focus. Assist levels, non-pedaling activity, and power ratings are much better places to take those actions.
Last edited by BrocLuno; 12-20-18 at 08:33 AM.
#240
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A lot of direct to consumer models have throttles, especially if they have hub motors. Two caveats: 1) throttles are always limited to 20 mph max, and 2) you can't rely on the throttle exclusively: your battery will drain very, very quickly. On flat terrain, you can drain a huge 1K amp hour battery in maybe 20-30 miles. Uphill, you might only get single digits.
Even then, simply adding a throttle doesn't make an e-bike a moped; there are just too many gross differences between e-bikes and mopeds to even entertain the notion that the comparison is even halfway plausible. E-bikes will become far lighter over the next few years and battery capacity will increase significantly as well. Pivot, Focus, Specialized and other smaller startups are pushing the tech envelope very hard. The transformation in the industry in 2019 alone took me by surprise. Seriously, what kind of weirdo thinks a 25 lb ebike which is visually indistinguishable from a standard bicycle and 300 lbs gas guzzling, noisy, smelly emissions spewing moped are one and the same?
As sales increase, R&D budgets will improve, resulting in better bikes and therefore stronger sales in a constant cycle (no pun intended). Previous gen. e-bikes have not been especially impressive, but there is just no turning back at this point. The technology is improving rapidly and demand is close to insatiable. Both direct to consumer brands as well as some boutiques like Pivot can't keep up with demand at all. Pre-orders, often taking many months to fulfill are the norm. Even some smaller startups are backed up on orders just a few months out of the gate.
Whether one loves, hates or ignores e-bikes, there is little question that they will take a place of leadership in the bicycling industry. Will e-bikes save the bicycling industry? No, it will take the industry to heights it has never seen.
Even then, simply adding a throttle doesn't make an e-bike a moped; there are just too many gross differences between e-bikes and mopeds to even entertain the notion that the comparison is even halfway plausible. E-bikes will become far lighter over the next few years and battery capacity will increase significantly as well. Pivot, Focus, Specialized and other smaller startups are pushing the tech envelope very hard. The transformation in the industry in 2019 alone took me by surprise. Seriously, what kind of weirdo thinks a 25 lb ebike which is visually indistinguishable from a standard bicycle and 300 lbs gas guzzling, noisy, smelly emissions spewing moped are one and the same?
As sales increase, R&D budgets will improve, resulting in better bikes and therefore stronger sales in a constant cycle (no pun intended). Previous gen. e-bikes have not been especially impressive, but there is just no turning back at this point. The technology is improving rapidly and demand is close to insatiable. Both direct to consumer brands as well as some boutiques like Pivot can't keep up with demand at all. Pre-orders, often taking many months to fulfill are the norm. Even some smaller startups are backed up on orders just a few months out of the gate.
Whether one loves, hates or ignores e-bikes, there is little question that they will take a place of leadership in the bicycling industry. Will e-bikes save the bicycling industry? No, it will take the industry to heights it has never seen.
Testing the throttle, the bike accelerated slowly and reached a peak speed of 15mph on the flats. Fat tires had 60lbs. I dont cruise with throttle only as it has only one speed.
I believe ebikes are the first major initiative to add to non-motorized bikes in the US sold by ebike and regular ongoing dealers. Though new to the US, they have been popular in Asia and Europe.
That is my experience so far with a hybrid throttle applied to a Tern eLink, the only one in existence.
#241
Senior Member
In the state of Pennsylvania, a motor-driven cycle is considered to be a moped if it has:
- Operable pedals.
- A motor that does not exceed 1.5 brake horsepower OR an electric battery-powered motor.
- A cylinder capacity which is no more than 50 cc.
- An automatic transmission.
- A maximum speed of no more than 25 mph.
A few years ago the PA leglsature passed a law to define e-bikes thusly:
"Pedalcycle with electric assist." A vehicle weighing not more than 100 pounds with two or three wheels more than 11 inches in diameter, manufactured or assembled with an electric motor system rated at not more than 750 watts and equipped with operable pedals and capable of a speed not more than 20 miles per hour on a level surface when powered by the motor source only. The term does not include a device specifically designed for use by persons with disabilities.
Also, as many others have mentioned, I've never heard of a moped weighing close to 300lbs. They're almost all between 100 and 200 lbs.
300lbs is full size motorcycle territory. A 2019 Honda CB300R is 313 lbs ready to ride with a full tank of fuel.
Last edited by General Geoff; 12-24-18 at 01:22 PM.
#242
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nobody but ebikers have posted for the last 11 posts. I think we are done here. Closing.