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Making the Go / No Go Decision on each daily commute

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Making the Go / No Go Decision on each daily commute

Old 01-30-13, 12:56 AM
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Bluish Green
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Making the Go / No Go Decision on each daily commute

Last night I made the wrong decision. I listened to the weather reports last night warning of severe p.m. thunderstorms and possible flash flooding, and I got a ride to work from my wife today. The result... I missed a perfectly good 60°F day in January in Illinois that I could have rode on summer tires for.

I thought I might ask you guys some questions about the Go or No Go decision.

1) Do you make the Go or No Go decision the night before or morning of? (or further out than that?)

2) Do you decide primarily based on weather forecasts, and if so, what are your "limits" or "decision zones"? Are you willing alter your leave time or stay at work late to wait out passing storm fronts if that's what it takes?

3) Are cumulative weekly leg fatigue or other issues significant in your decision?

4) How frequently do you regret the decision made, as I did today (in other words, what %age are you generally happy with your choice)?


I generally make a Go or No Go pick the night before and stick with it, since getting a ride changes everybody's morning schedules in the house. If I am having leg fatigue and need a day off, I will take one, and I am 95% happy with all of those decisions.

When it comes to weather, my luck is sour. I am changing my "limits" and "decision zone" as I go, but I am still probably unhappy with 60% of my No Go decisions, like today. Less than 10% of my Go decisions were bad, where it was a miserable or more dangerous commute (lightning, etc.) than expected. I guess perfection is not possible, so perhaps where I'm at is okay.

My weather factors in No Go decisions currently are:
- high headwinds (in E or W directions for me) (less of an issue on summer tires - studded tires and 20+ mph sustained headwinds give my hamstrings hell)
- severe t-storm or possible tornadic activity
- heavy snow

I don't have low or high temperature limits here in Springfield. Any day where any predicted temp is close to or below 32°F, I go with the bike with studded winter tires (now that I have 2 bikes)

None of the weather conditions are absolute No Go triggers (I am willing to wait out a passing front, etc.), and sometimes leg fatigue will tip the scales one way or the other. It's not always an easy choice.

Sorry for the long post... I hope to learn from other, more experienced commuters here.
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Old 01-30-13, 01:49 AM
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ice covering roads/cycle lanes = no go for me

otherwise, I go

the subway runs along my path, so i can always jump on should the weather turn for the worse
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Old 01-30-13, 02:47 AM
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I'd like to think that there is no decision to make. I go. Period. I've ridden in some nasty weather. I haven't regretted it in almost three years of daily commuting.

Yes, I have chickened out, and took a ride from friends. I have always regretted not riding those days.
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Old 01-30-13, 02:59 AM
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Weather? We don't stop for weather. I sold my motorcycle and car so all I have is bikes. Unless thete ade 70 mph winds out there I go. If its icy I leave earlier and ride slower.
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Old 01-30-13, 04:29 AM
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It's always a go for me, regardless of the weather, I am car-free... If there are extreme weather conditions then I prepare and bring extra clothing, take a different route.. I do whatever it takes and ride. We've had some crazy weather this January, it's been up and down, huge temp swings. Cold ,warm ,mild .Just yesterday we had lot's of black ice in the morning ,then temps went up to around 35F and heavy cold rain, I don't use waterproof rain gear... I got soaked but at least I was warm and it was a lot of fun.
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Old 01-30-13, 05:13 AM
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Be safe. Have fun. In that order.
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Old 01-30-13, 05:47 AM
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I always set myself to go on the bike and see what it's like in the morning. Like you I always regret when I take the bike. And like you I'll check for wind speed and direction and for icy or snowy pavement.
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Old 01-30-13, 05:54 AM
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I'm probably more like the OP in that there is a decision to be made. I'm not one to ride in the rain or when it is very cold, and just forget about snow and ice. It just isn't worth it to me.

My decision making goes something like this:

Wake up.
Look out the window. If it is wet or raining - Fughedabouddit
Check the weather.com forecast.
If it is to be a warm or nice day I ride.
If it is a nice morning and rain is expected later I check the % chance - if it says 40% I'll sometimes take the chance

Today it is supposed to be 60 with a 30% chance of rain. The only other decision I need to make is whether my bike and gear is ready, and at 6:54am as I write this it is not. This may be my best riding day this week though so I better get moving. 60 degrees in January in NYC, I think I'm going.

Ciao.

Oops. I didn't do step 2 above. It is dripping wet and foggy out there. Maybe not, I don't have fenders.

Last edited by zacster; 01-30-13 at 06:05 AM.
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Old 01-30-13, 06:09 AM
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weatherspark.com is the best weather ive used, its very detailed and reliable

i check that the night before to give me an idea and if its wet or rainy outside when i wake up im not going (i dont have rain gear yet)

otherwise some days im just not in the mood for the world yet or i had no sleep so i say screw it and drive

i regret it every time the weather changes or stays nice. today theres a forecast of high winds and flash flooding when id be leaving class tonight so im going to be driving, but if it stays ncie and foggy like it is now im gonna be mad
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Old 01-30-13, 06:16 AM
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1) Decision the night before.

2) Yes, it's the weather. In the winter months, I don't ride if it's raining, snowing, sleeting or when temp is below 20F (I worry about getting a flat at low temperature).

3) My commute is long so leg fatigue does play a role, especially if I also want to do things on the the weekend.

4) There are 365 days/year, missing a day isn't worth fretting over. If it's nicer outside than what the forecast had said, I'll go for a walk during lunch break.
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Old 01-30-13, 08:28 AM
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I'm going to ride a bike to work, except in three circumstances:
1. Icy or snowy roads. I'm a wimp, and one of half a dozen drivers (out of 150,000) around here who know how to drive through snow. Give me a ton of protection under those circumstances, please!

2. Thunderstorm or hail at time of ride.

3. I need the car for some reason.

Decision made at time of ride. If I take my wife's car, I'll adjust my schedule to hers to minimize disruption.

I've regretted about 80% of the "don't ride" decisons I've made based on the weather forecast.

Leg fatigue means I take another 5 minutes to get to work. 10% more time makes it into a recovery ride.

[Edited to add] I'm fortunate to be able to adjust my departure time from work to avoid t'storms.
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Old 01-30-13, 08:33 AM
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Ha! So today as it turned out the T-Storm and highwind are going to come later (in the evening) than as forecasted last night so I missed the ride. But the saving grace is there is a stream outage at work so it would have been a very very cold shower had I rode.
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Old 01-30-13, 08:47 AM
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This is an issue I deal with every day. My goal is to ride every day but not if the weather is risky. One of my main reasons for bike commuting is to maintain my health, and getting hit by a car or wrecking due to poor weather conditions doesn't make a lot of sense. You could easily miss weeks or months of riding if you get in an accident.

I generally make the call on whether to ride or not when I get up in the morning. If it is raining and the radar shows that it is likely to continue, I go back to sleep and drive that day. Likewise with rain, sleet or snow. I also drive if the weather is nice when I get up but forecasts are pretty certain about foul weather during my afternoon commute time. For example, it was warm and dry when I got up this morning, but I drove because forecasts called for high winds (40+ mph) this afternoon with possible severe thunderstorms. However, if it only raining lightly or forecasts call for a slight chance of rain (less than 50%), than I usually drive. One thing I have learned is that TV forecasts tend to exaggerate weather conditions, so they make it sound like even slight rainfalls are likely to be a deluge, and I take that into account as well. I also usually drive during extreme heat and humidity, when forecasts call for temps higher than 100 F, because my afternoon commute is generally during the hottest part of the day. Occasionally I will also miss riding on days when air quality is poor.

With all of the those caveats, it might seem that I rarely bike commute, but we have pretty nice weather most of the time in NC. I ride to work about 3- 4 days a week on average year-round, topping more than 5,000 miles last year. My commute is about 1 hour (15 miles) of riding each way, so I still rack up a lot of miles even during weeks when I miss days due to weather. That distance also means that my commute can be pretty miserable and/or dangerous on days when the weather is bad, so I pay close attention to the forecasts. We also get a lot of thunderstorms, which are very different than riding in light, drizzly rain.

One days when I decide to drive to weather forecasts, about half the time I end up regretting it because the forecasts were wrong. However, I'd rather be safe than sorry. My commute is 100% on city-suburban streets with no bike paths and heavy traffic in spots, and I personally don't feel safe riding in heavy rain, high winds, snow/ice on those sorts of roads.

Last edited by tarwheel; 01-30-13 at 08:51 AM.
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Old 01-30-13, 08:49 AM
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We don't have snow and ice to deal with, but if we were to stay in (not ride) when the weather radar shows green (40% chance of rain) we'd probably never get out to ride (read - there is almost always a 40-50% chance of rain here in summer). Green means go!

When the forcast is for strong storms (we gettum baaad) they usually come through quickly (done in an hour like what's coming in tonight). This is unlike times I remember in Michigan where it would rain for many days on end.

I usually decide to ride the night before and then reconfirm the morning of. Sometimes I just jump out of bed and decide. Usually end up riding 2-3 times per week.

The "morning of" decision is usually not based on the weather, but more on my being prepared fully or not. Once I launch it doesn't matter - I'm committed and will start to enjoy the peace and quiet of my morning commute (7.2 miles mostly on a MUP) within a few pedal strokes - after all - I'm on an "adventure!"
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Old 01-30-13, 08:52 AM
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For me, commuting is supposed to be fun and not a neccessity. So, I make the decision when I look out the window in the morning and listen to the local weather report. If it will rain hard, skip commuting. Light rain is ok. If there is significant snow on the roads, safety first and skip commuting. Ice is not a problem with the studs. Cold never stops me unless its -15degF or less then again, its not fun anymore and (I don't wanna go). My decision is made on the spot and I take the car or have my wife get ready to take me in to work if she needs the car that day. I loose alot of good commuting days due to working assignments out of town so I only get about 50% of the time anyway.
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Old 01-30-13, 09:04 AM
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My decision is based on a few things.

1. How tired/sore I am.
2. Does the fiances work schedule allow me use of her car. This is the big one, if I can't use her car, I'm biking period, regardless of any other reason.

Some times it means 5 days a week I bike, other times it means only once or twice. I always feel bad when I wimp out and take the car, but I really hate getting up early in the mornings so the allure of even an extra 15 minutes of sleep will often win out.

Weather almost never plays a factor. Although sub zero or 30's and rain will affect my decision.
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Old 01-30-13, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Bluish Green
Last night I made the wrong decision….I thought I might ask you guys some questions about the Go or No Go decision.

1) Do you make the Go or No Go decision the night before or morning of? (or further out than that?)

2) Do you decide primarily based on weather forecasts, and if so, what are your "limits" or "decision zones"? Are you willing alter your leave time or stay at work late to wait out passing storm fronts if that's what it takes?

3) Are cumulative weekly leg fatigue or other issues significant in your decision?

4) How frequently do you regret the decision made, as I did today (in other words, what %age are you generally happy with your choice)?...
My year-round 14 mile cycle commute one-way (taking the Commuter Train home with the bike) was curtailed last June due to an accident that kept me off work for three months, and destroyed my road bike. I have resumed commuting in November. So here is my planning process:

On the local cable system, Comcast in Boston, we a channel 245 called Weatherscan, with a continuous Doppler radar encompassing a wide area of Metropolitan Boston, and continuous data of various conditions, most notably wind speed and direction. My immediate decision to Go or No Go is made early that morning, initially to choose what to wear. I only use the ambient temperature, and disregard wind chill factor, since there is always a wind chill factor on the bike. I have a standardized system of layering based on the temperature.

I also check Weatherscan the night before, to anticipate my plans for the ride. My impression has been that they are pretty accurate predicting fair weather, and predictions of foul weather to ride are variable, estimated at about 75% accurate. Since the Doppler is real time and covers a wide area, I often can decide that morning when there is a window of opportunity to ride; similar to Dwight Eisenhower’s decision to launch D-Day on June 6 during a break in the weather. My alternatives to cycling are to take the family car (provided they don't need it), or take our fairly convenience public transportation.

Previously, I had minimal meteorologic limits to ride. Over the years my low temperature limit gradually diminished from 20° F to 15, then none. My lowest temperature has been 0°F for the one hour and 10 minute ride. Otherwise I avoided drenching rain and/or lightning that I did not have time to wait out. From other posts on the subject, I suppose that a wind speed of over 40 mph might be risky, because variable gusts of wind might push me into traffic. I have never encountered that yet, without rain to put off the ride.

Otherwise, my most frequent deferral to ride is when I need to get a distance of several miles from point A to point B during the work day, and be presentable on arrival. Actually, I often ride my bike to point A anyways, and then rent a car to travel. However renting and returning is time-consuming, so I have more often retrenched to taking the family car. The second most frequent reason I did not ride, is when I work late the night before, and may get only about four hours sleep.

Prior to the accident though, the more crucial decision was not whether to ride, but which bike. I would only take out my pristine Bridgestone RB-1 if there was no chance of getting it wet and grimy, or if there was ice on the road. My beater bike is a Cannondale Mountain bike with fenders, and studded tires from December through mid-April so ice is no problem. In my mind I kept score: I win if I rode the appropriate bike for the weather, and lost when I rode the wrong one. I estimate I decided wrong less than that at most five times a month. Better to ride the mountain bike in good weather, then ride the Bridgestone when wet.

Since the accident, I now have only the Cannondale to ride. I am less amenable to riding in rain, and I had to make some adjustments for the temperature. I recently posted about that:

Originally Posted by Jim from Boston
…In previous years, I had winnowed my lower temperature limit eventually down to none at all, the lowest temperature encountered being 0° F. But then my commute was about 1 hour 10 minutes, and that was just about pushing the limit at single digits.

Since my injury, the commute takes longer, and I have been reluctant to further push the limit with the longer time it takes. My coldest ride so far is 18°. I decided to set my lower limit at 15°, so this past week I have hibernated. However, I have had to ruefully answer “No,” to that perennial question, “You didn't ride your bike today, did you?”.

So this morning, I decided that if the temperature is less than 15°, I’ll take the Providence-Stoughton line to the Route 128 station, and then it's a 4 mile ride to Norwood, and I can maintain my tough-guy road warrior image without mentioning the short cut. To the naysayers who give me a hard time about riding in those conditions, I refer to an excellent post to this thread on the Road Cycling Forum, “When does Hardcore become Stupid?”:

Originally Posted by StephenH
Hardcore becomes stupid when it becomes dangerous.

Hardcore becomes stupid when anything going wrong becomes a safety problem instead of an inconvenience....

Hardcore becomes stupid when minor errors in judgment become safety issues. You estimate how long it will take, what you need to wear, whether you'll need lights, etc. If you estimate wrong, do you get a chill? Or do you die?

Hardcore has clearly become completely stupid when you lose any fingers or toes to frostbite.

In each case, it's not just the weather that makes it hardcore or stupid, it's the degree of preparation and knowledge used in dealing with the weather.
Tomorrow’s predicted temperature for my commute is 14°.
Originally Posted by Bluish Green
…Sorry for the long post... I hope to learn from other, more experienced commuters here.
Likewise sorry for the long post, but it gives me a chance to reflect on my cycling lifestyle of about 40 years.
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Old 01-30-13, 09:10 AM
  #18  
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During the summer, my commute is a 40 minute ride plus at least a few minutes before and after to get the bike out and load it up and afterwards, to lock it up and unload it and then a shave and shower. In other words, it takes me ~80 minutes to commute, to be at my desk at 7:30am and therefore, I need to be well prepared the night before (gathering and packing work clothes, gathering cycling clothes, making/packing lunch). However, only part of the go/no-go decision is made the night before, the final decision is made in the morning, part of which would be a change in weather and, certainly last year when my commuting reached a personal record, the condition of my legs (I treat commuting as a means of fitness, pushing myself and riding an extra 24km each day by taking a longer route).

Generally, the difference between the evening before and morning of decisions is that the evening decision is a "go" (or at least a "tentative go") and the morning is either a final "go" or a "no-go". Rarely, because of the effort involved, do I turn an evening "no-go" decision into a "go" decision in the morning but it has happened.
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Old 01-30-13, 09:12 AM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild
It's always a go for me, regardless of the weather, I am car-free... If there are extreme weather conditions then I prepare and bring extra clothing, take a different route.. I do whatever it takes and ride. We've had some crazy weather this January, it's been up and down, huge temp swings. Cold ,warm ,mild .Just yesterday we had lot's of black ice in the morning ,then temps went up to around 35F and heavy cold rain, I don't use waterproof rain gear... I got soaked but at least I was warm and it was a lot of fun.
Hard core my southern friend!!!

(I was raised in Mississauga, Bloor/Dixie area, Glenforest Secondary School, and don't even think of asking my graduating year!!!)
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Old 01-30-13, 09:21 AM
  #20  
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Here's my take on weather forecasts..
They're usually accurate with temperature and wind speed. (my 2 criteria)
As far as precipitation and storms, I could do better with tea leaves.
So.. I look at projected temps and wind speed the previous night and decide.
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Old 01-30-13, 09:28 AM
  #21  
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I took the need to make the go/no go decision out of the equation a couple years ago when we decided to go car light. There is no way for public transportation to get me from my house to my work, and I work nowhere near my wife who normally drives our car to work, so having her drop me off is not really an option. I guess she could drive me the 10 miles to the train station and then I could take a bus or cab the 5 miles to my work place once I get off the train, but to me that is unnecessary inconvenience and cost. So I just ride regardless of the weather conditions. Pouring rain last night on my way home, but at least it was unseasonably warm at around 50F. Light rain this morning at 35F which is supposed to change to snow with dropping temps through the day. I have enough experience riding in all weather conditions that I am confident in my fitness and safety.
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Old 01-30-13, 09:49 AM
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I usually have a pretty good idea of go/no-go the night before. I'll look at the NOAA forecasts (local tv weather is fairly worthless/inflammatory/overdone).... if I'm looking at a sustained headwind of 20+ mph going home I'll usually take the train (inbound headwind isn't an issue since it's usually not all that windy in the am), or if it's going to be cold + windy (low teens with much wind just isn't fun).

When I get up, I'll look at the radar loop and if it's raining hard with no breaks in sight I'll usually bail since I've yet to figure out how to get my shoes dry during the workday and wet/cold shoes at the start of a 10+ mile ride is a bummer-- if there's a gap in the showers my schedule is flexible enough most days that I can leave 30-60 min later to avoid heavy rain. Evening schedule is also flexible so I can leave early/late to avoid storms, and I can always leave my bike in the office overnight and take the train home if things get really hairy. Riding home in the rain isn't a problem (and is actually kind of fun provided it's above 40F).

I'll admit that today I planned on riding the single speed (commuter has studs and that just seems silly in 60 degree weather...) but bailed at the last minute when I decided/realized I had more stuff than I wanted to carry in my messenger bag for 11 miles.
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Old 01-30-13, 10:00 AM
  #23  
Mr. Hairy Legs
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One thing I have learned is that weather forecasts are usually bunk.

So the only things that affect my decision are
1) I feel like sleeping in
2) I'm sore/tired (usually goes together with #1)

I never drive two days in a row, regardless of weather.
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Old 01-30-13, 10:55 AM
  #24  
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Ice is the only no-go for me. I usually glance at the forecast every few days and look in more detail if it seems like it will be iffy.
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Old 01-30-13, 11:04 AM
  #25  
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My default decision in the summer is go, and in the winter is no-go. Year-round, there's 1-2 days per month when I violate the default condition, and it's always on a whim the morning of.
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