clubman 

This should have been one of the early responses to this thread. Thanks for that. (even if it was sourced from the media)

Captain Blight

Lorne, I am begging you, please just go. Get out of there. Put the family on the bikes and ride straight upwind from that reactor just as fast as you please. Don't wait for help to come to you, go to where the help is waiting. One good day's ride and you're back in civilization.

Please, I am begging you. Thyroid cancer is no joke.

eddubal

In the USA, There is an organization called CERT (Community Emergency Response Team). It was started as a government response to a need for backup of professional emergency response personnel in case of a disastrous emergency. They trained us as first responders with similar training materials and subject matter.

Here is the subject matter that they provided us which gives a good overview of what to do in a nuclear emergency. https://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/dow...PM_Jan2011.doc

They do not advise leaving since you have a much higher risk of being caught in the open when you decide to evacuate. Even in your car, your exposure is much greater than if you planned for and decided to shelter at home. If you can get out of the area beforehand, go for it. I'm not sure how far Lenton58 can go between gas rationing and highway closures. I know my relatives have talked about many road/highway closures between their house and either Mito or Tokyo.

Evacuating on a non-enclosed vehicle could be the worst thing that he could do. It affords absolutely no protection in event of the worst. The best piece of advice is to get uphill and upwind. In Lenton's case, try to get to the western side of Japan and as far south as he can get. I highly doubt that he can get on a plane out, even if he can get to Narita airport. The word is that the flights out are packed already.

Our family is all hoping that Lenton and his family will end up safe wherever they end up. All we can do now is hope for the best.

Mike Mills

Fall out from reactor venting is somewhat different than dispersal by a dirty bomb. The reason to leave is to get as far away from the reactor in the event it does spew radiation.

The strategy is to evacuate upwind, or cross-wind, even if it is slower. That way, if there were an airborne release, it would blow away from you. The fallout zones are greatly diminished upwind of the site and vastly extended downwind. You do not want to evacuate in the downwind direction.

I believe the situation is this - the government has issued evacuation orders for some areas*. They have not issued a shelter-in-place order. This means the situation is suitable for leaving. Do it.

Later on, you may not be able to do so.


I have said what I have to say, so I will stop now.


* I checked the latest reports and all governements are urging evacuation of the area. They differ on how far away is safe (20 - to 80 km) but they all agree on evacuation of the immediate vicinity. There are no shelter-in-place orders in effect. In CERT parlance, right now, it is safe to move.

well biked

This is the most powerful thread I've ever read on BF. Lenton58, I'm so sorry you and all the people over there are going through this. Bless all of you.

funkflex

Just read this entire thread with my girlfriend. Let god be with you and your family Lorne. We wish you the best and hope you all make it out of there ok. Best!

bikenut2011

Wish you and your Family all the best, Lorne. Godspeed!

andy

azshtr

I'm much closer than New York in Arizona. If you need to stay somewhere we are here.

noglider 

I'm confused. There's a thread where he says everything is OK, and there's this one. On which thread has he posted more recently?

auchencrow

This is the more recent thread. ie, All is not well due to the present concerns with the nuclear facility.

noglider 

OK, thanks.

repechage

this one is the most current to the situation.

I just reviewed a New York Times slide show on the configuration of most of the reactors, #3 which appears to have heavy damage to the outer structure as seen in SAT images, makes me really question if the spent fuel containment pool even exists now.
If I remember correctly this unit used plutonium partially for fuel...

auchencrow

Earlier today, the BBC reported that Gregory Jaczko, head of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has said there is no water left in the spent fuel pool in reactor four, adding: "We believe that radiation levels are extremely high." Mr Jaczko was speaking to Congress in Washington and it was not immediately clear where his information had come from.

eddubal

Yeah, I heard on CNN tonight that Cesium has been found in the local water supply.

unterhausen

I will delete any further posts questioning the decision to leave. Anyone that is paying attention should be able to understand that there is a non-zero probability of a widespread catastrophic event in Japan. No reason not to leave in my view. It's easy to say not to worry if your risk is zero. Don't do it.

And let's leave the politics out of it too, please.

auchencrow

The Times has a fairly good recap of events for today for those of you just catching up.

furballi

@ OP. Not sure if you've come across my rambling about extending the evacuation zone the other day. The best chance for stabilizing those reactors occurred during the first 48 hours. I have a lot of respect for those who are still working at the plants, but I'm afraid it's all for show. Most, if not all, have already received near-lethal dosage of radiation. It appears that the water table has already been contaminated. Stick to bottled water if possible.

I think we have another day or two before it becomes clear that those damaged cores are beyond repair. I would bike my family to safety if I was in your shoes.

vandalarchitect

For what it's worth Lenton58, I feel for you and hope everything turns out ok. I can't imagine being in a position as a father and husband and needing to decide what to do to protect my family in a situation such as this. I can offer some information though. If you have iodine pills or access to them, take them. This will greatly reduce the chance of thyroid contamination from radioactive iodine. If they (whatever gov't or agency you wish to insert here) is recommending to seal yourself in your home, do it. Different types of radiation can be stopped in different ways. Alpha particles, while fairly harmless to you outside your body (because they cannot penetrate the skin to damage internal organs) can be very dangerous if ingested or breathed in because they bounce around inside until they get passed through naturally. But these are also the particles that will be stopped by the walls of your house by sealing yourself in. Again I hope for the best and you, your family and everyone facing this situation are in my prayers.

To those worrying about a full-blown nuclear meltdown a la Chernobyl ... I personally don't feel this will be the case. Chernobyl's reactor was unique in that it had a positive temperature coefficient for a brief period, the bad period. What this means is that as the temp. of the reactor increased the ability of the reaction to take place also increased. This produced more heat which produced the ability for the reaction to increase producing more heat, etc. The plants in Fukushima will have negative temperature coefficients which means that as temp. increases the ability for the reaction to take place will decrease. That is the nature of a boiling water reactor. The water both acts as coolant and moderator. Without water, the temperature will increase and radiation will be released but the catastrophic runaway meltdown that occurred at Chernobyl will not happen in Japan. I'm not trying to say that what is going on at Fukushima is all rainbows and sunshine, it is bad and unprecedented and dangerous.

There is probably a whole different discussion that could happen on what the term 'meltdown' means but we'll save that for another time, or for the media to have.

For more on reactors and the safety of negative temperature coefficients https://energyfromthorium.com/2006/04...e-coefficient/
For more on boiling water reactors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_water_reactor

repechage

Vandalarchitect- I think the most problematic is the spent fuel, some of which was removed from service early in anticipation of the planned closure of the plant. The spent storage pools are/were housed inside the overall reactor buildings. From what I have seen there is a good chance that one or more of these are broken and or there is no current effective water cooling of the rods. The issue of a primary containment casing is a problem too. We will have to see how this plays out. Fortunately for many of us, at a distance.

bigbossman 

FWIW - I just saw a U.C. Berkeley nuclear physicist interviewed that essentially said the same thing. His view was that this was worse than TMI, but a fraction of Chernobyl. Even his "worst case" scenario was zero deaths from radiation poisoning, but contaminated arable soil for food production in a determinable area.

I'm not a scientist, nor do I pretend to be. Just reporting what I heard first-hand. It has been my experience in disasters that the reality is typically worse than the government reports, and a whole lot less than what the media reports.

vandalarchitect

I agree, right now it seems like the spent fuel in open pools lacking water is the issue. Whether they are hot or not temperature-wise, they are still hot radiation-wise and without water to block that radiation it will shoot skyward. In the end I sincerely hope that the threat from nuclear radiation to those in Japan is minute compared to the earthquake and tsunami. I know that is a lot easier said with an ocean between me and Japan. The only reassurance I can give to let you know I take this seriously is that if this were to happen locally, I personally know those who would be at work attempting to reduce the threat of nuclear radiation. Most likely exposing themselves to unsafe levels to ensure the safety of others.

FWIW, I'm not any type of nuclear physicist or chemist, nor do I want to claim to be one. All I claim to be is what my screen name alludes to; I'm an architecture student with a vandal as a mascot.

vandalarchitect

On that note, I believe the main contaminants (cesium and iodine), have half-lives that are considered manageable, around 30 years. That means that those contaminated soils may not be fit for food production in 5 years, but in one person's lifetime they could be at levels that could be considered safe.

Glennfordx4

I just received this from Lorne's sister.
Glenn
https://www.vancouversun.com/news/wom...686/story.html

Ciufalon

^^^
Thanks for posting that. I hope Lorne and his family are able to get out on a British or U.S. bus. Hopefully that is why we are not hearing from Lorne. I hope they are making progress to get out of Sendai and away from danger.

matt0ne

That was very encouraging. good to hear. I was pretty shaken up for a good part of the morning in concern for lorne, his family and Japan.