erader

i say no. what do you think?

ed rader

USAZorro

I'm thinking Astana is likely to not even start.

If they do, I say no too (so I guess I'm saying no either way).

mmmdonuts

First he has to finish.

erader

no finish, no show = did not finish in top 10.

ed rader

teetopkram

Likely won't start as team won't have $$

If he does start, no to a top ten based on his current Giro fitness...he's losing time to Petacchi on hilly stages. If he's using this strictly for training and just building up endurance/tempo, then the second half of the Giro will be more telling.

erader

gun to your head. your answer NOW is ?

ed rader

Shimagnolo

Let's take the interesting Q's in order:

1. Will Astana start?

2. Will Lance start?

3. If #2 is "yes", on what team?

4. If #2 is "yes", will he finish in the top 10?

erader

top 10. yes or no. with what you know NOW. yes or no?

ed rader

Crash716

top ten assuming he doesn't have any training setbacks...IE..crash, no team, stuff like that.

asv

25% chance of a top 10 finish for Lance assuming:
- The team exists in a month.
- Lance races in the TDF

Considering Astana can't have 3 GC contenders in the same team, I think the biggest threat to Lance in the top 10 is having him designated as a "super-domestique" after the first week or two for either Levi or Contradope.

Even if Lance rides in to form during the Giro, it would be really tough for Lance to become the GC guy for his team, unless something happens to Contradope. (injury, positive test, illness, etc)

adam

That's my vote as well. 7th or 8th

erader

lance will be almost 38 by TDF time. the last "old" guy to win the TDF was bjarne riis and i believe he was 35. when riis won i recall seeing a list of the ages of all the TDF champs and i remember only a couple of guys had won who were older than riis.

now, i know lance is "different". he did afterall win the TDF an unprecedented seven times in a row.

but i think even if he races he has a better chance at DNF than cracking the top 10 .

ed rader

mmmdonuts

No top ten finish.

teetopkram

No to top ten.

- uncertainty over team finances/participation
- lack of top level fitness (many people riding away from him now, unlike in the past)
- age
- no longer feared
- infusion of younger talent in past three years (e.g., Schleck, Lövqvist) and improvement of other riders (e.g., Basso)
- Ullrich and Pantani no longer around to fuel his fire

All these outweigh his will and genetics IMO.

Jay68442

If Lance does start in the TDF then I have to say Yes he will make the top 10. He may be getting old but the TDF is his race. It will be interesting to see where he stands at the end of the Giro and Levi too.

hocker

You all are crazy if you think Astana won't start the Tour. They won't be Astana, but the riders will be the same. So let me get this straight, Contador, Levi and Lance who are perhaps all among the top five most well known riders in the world won't start??? Please. They will get the money, believe me, Lance is connected like no one else on the planet (Maybe Tiger, Beckham, Federer are close). Whether it's Trek, SRAM, Bill Clinton, whoever, they will get the money once they break from Kazakstan and switch the license to Johan.

The man is 25th right now with just a few months training total and a recent major injury. He placed 7th at the ToC (which was stacked) in his first race back after retirement. I'm impressed. As for the TdF, the issue is more of what role he plays and how he fits in with two other TdF favorites (Levi, Contador). Yes, he can make into the top ten!!! He has the team, the brains and he can TT, and by the start of the TdF he will probably have the legs too.

USAZorro

I'm posting again to elaborate on my logic. If the team starts, and if Contador is on the same team as Lance, and unless Contador crashes out on a really early stage, Lance probably isn't even going to try riding for the win. If he's not the GC guy for his team - no way he's going to finish top 10. Even if he is the GC guy, I doubt he can do it. Top 20 - I think he could crack that. Top 10 - no.

Contador, Evans, Basso, Sastre, Schleck (pick one or both), Valjavek, Leipheimer, Menchov, Rogers, Gesink, S. Chavanel, Sanchez, VanDeVelde, Kirchen, Soler, Dessel, Gilbert, Efimkin, Kreuziger - IMO, all the above have a better shot at top 10 (injuries notwithstanding) than does Lance

mmmdonuts

Astana is a professional racing team. Money is spent to pay AND KEEP GC contenders and their support riders with the expectation of winning races. Astana has THE best current GT rider in it's ranks and some strong contenders. Lance is not even paid to ride with the team. Who do you think Bruyneel is going to pick as the leader for any GT this year?

Astana pecking order: Bruyneel, Contador, Levi, Armstrong (maybe), the rest.

hocker

I thought the question was, 'can he do it', not 'will he get an opportunity to do it'? It sounds like the latter from your last post and to this end, you are probably right. Here is another scenario, if he road for Columbia, which is a very strong team that lacks a true GC threat at the Tdf, could he podium? I know Col has Kirchin, but IMO he wasn't impressive last year. I think he could.

Another scenario, if Levi wins the Giro does he step back and support Lance at the TdF? That would mean Albert and Lance get supported by a mix of Levi, Horner et al. This I think is certainly manageable for the team considering Astana put two guys on the podium in '07 and at the Vuelta.

There are a lot of ways this could play out, one thing to remember is this isn't just about strength of rider and ego, there is a cause involved (Livestrong) and the TdF is the ultimate stage in terms of exposure.

asv

Astana's survival might depend on Armstrong's involvement. Whatever new team is created, Armstrong will be at the top of the pecking order at the end of the day from an ownership and management perspective, or not be involved at all.

The "Astana" pecking order is different from the "Astana GC Pecking order."

mmmdonuts

True. But even so, Lance in management should not change the GC pecking order. If it does the others are likely to fly the coop. Lance is smart and so is Bruyneel. They love what they do and want to continue doing it.

brentvelo

don't forget about lance and nike. they do more for him than anyone. i think that he will win the tour this year. a former pro i ride with was saying that really, lance is right on track for peaking in july. we'll see what he does in a week or two in the giro.

Jay68442

If and this is a big IF, What if Lance wins the TDF will the haters still say he doped to win?

USAZorro

That's a given - but let's not go there please.

iab

Top ten? No friggin' way.