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Impact of Pandemic on Racing

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Impact of Pandemic on Racing

Old 04-21-20, 05:25 PM
  #251  
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Originally Posted by Hermes View Post
It looks like San Diego is going to open the parks. We will see what that includes and maybe it will include Fiesta Island.
it does not. Mission bay park also still closed. Looks like its mostly just local neighborhood parks for now
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Old 04-21-20, 05:33 PM
  #252  
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Fiesta still closed. I rode Florida Canyon on my MTB this morning which was nice. I have a feeling for my TT ride on Thursday I'll be heading up to UCSD and back and just getting a few minutes at a time in aero between intersections.
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Old 04-21-20, 05:41 PM
  #253  
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Originally Posted by Ttoc6 View Post
Looking for contradictory opinions here.. After a long discussion with co workers, it seems to me that "flattening the curve" doesn't actually limit the number of people who get the disease, but rather just lengthens out the time it takes for that number to actually get it. Obviously this is not justification for why anyone should go out and do group activities, but it seems to be that it is almost inevitable for many people that they will get sick. The social distancing and such is to limit the sharp peak that would overwhelm our hospitals and medical ability.

I guess the best way to imagine what I'm trying to say is that the integral of the flattened curve and the non-flattened curve is the same, but the derivative over the curve is obviously wildly different.
That's how I understand it. I think that social distancing does also limit the number of infections, but that's a secondary effect. The most important thing is to spread them out over a longer time period.
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Old 04-21-20, 05:46 PM
  #254  
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Originally Posted by Ttoc6 View Post
Looking for contradictory opinions here.. After a long discussion with co workers, it seems to me that "flattening the curve" doesn't actually limit the number of people who get the disease, but rather just lengthens out the time it takes for that number to actually get it. Obviously this is not justification for why anyone should go out and do group activities, but it seems to be that it is almost inevitable for many people that they will get sick. The social distancing and such is to limit the sharp peak that would overwhelm our hospitals and medical ability.

I guess the best way to imagine what I'm trying to say is that the integral of the flattened curve and the non-flattened curve is the same, but the derivative over the curve is obviously wildly different.
The theory is to prevent overwhelming the system but the hope is with more time a treatment or vaccine may be developed, or the virus may mutate into a less dangerous form, or maybe not everyone will get it after all.
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Old 04-21-20, 08:43 PM
  #255  
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I feel like I just sound like an ******* when i say these things. Or a fear monger.. Saying the same number of people will get sick (or on the same order of magnitude I guess) scares people it seems.
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Old 04-22-20, 07:05 AM
  #256  
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Originally Posted by Hermes View Post
It looks like San Diego is going to open the parks. We will see what that includes and maybe it will include Fiesta Island.
Some of the beaches a couple hours away are opening, but they are only opening for exercise. You can walk, run, swim, surf, but you cannot fish or layout. Chairs, blankets, umbrellas are all prohibited. Seems like a fair compromise to me.

Originally Posted by caloso View Post
That's how I understand it. I think that social distancing does also limit the number of infections, but that's a secondary effect. The most important thing is to spread them out over a longer time period.
Originally Posted by big john View Post
The theory is to prevent overwhelming the system but the hope is with more time a treatment or vaccine may be developed, or the virus may mutate into a less dangerous form, or maybe not everyone will get it after all.
Yes to both of these responses. (I'm not in public health anymore, but I was for about 10 years, working with a lot of epidemiologists.) The goal is to not overrun the health care system, give time to develop better ways to combat it, and hopefully reduce the number of people who contract it.

Originally Posted by Ttoc6 View Post
I feel like I just sound like an ******* when i say these things. Or a fear monger.. Saying the same number of people will get sick (or on the same order of magnitude I guess) scares people it seems.
Nah. I told my wife I fully expect to get it at some point. I just don't know when or how bad. I'm more concerned about mine and my wife's parents, who are much more likely to suffer greatly from it. Though, my wife is pretty concerned about me since I am asthmatic.
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Old 04-22-20, 07:10 AM
  #257  
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Originally Posted by big john View Post
The theory is to prevent overwhelming the system but the hope is with more time a treatment or vaccine may be developed, or the virus may mutate into a less dangerous form, or maybe not everyone will get it after all.
SARS and MERS both evolved into a less dangerous form (most pathogens do because it's in their best interests to keep their hosts sick but mobile so the host is out interacting with people and the environment passing the pathogen around - there are some obvious exceptions like the plague, tetanus, botulism, anthrax, etc. that have specific reasons for needing their host to die), so a lot of people are hoping that the same thing will happen with this related virus, and it seems reasonable to expect that it might happen. Because it has spread so far into so many people, if mutations leading to weaking do happen, they'll probably happen multiple times independently, so we'll end up with a ton of strains like the flu, which would make making a vaccine more complicated and suggests that it might be with us for a long time, but, if it weakens to the level of the flu or, better yet, a cold, that's far from the worse case scenario.
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Old 04-22-20, 09:55 AM
  #258  
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I was reading something about the drug used for dog heartworm medication and for river blindness in Africa being a potential treatment that can minimize the severity/lethality of covid19. This gives me some hope that at least there will be more effective treatments the longer we can delay this.

That being said, I had a period of dyspnea a little while before the shutdowns started which triggered a full on panic attack/hyperventilation (because I thought I wasn't getting enough oxygen, so I started breathing faster, then I felt tingling/numbness in my arms and diaphragm so I freaked out more - turns out that's a symptom of hyperventilation). Anyway, the original dyspnea was super annoying and felt like I could never get a satisfying deep breath. The doctors x-rayed my lungs, checked my vitals and labs, and said everything looked normal and that it was probably just general anxiety causing it. I didn't feel like I was more stressed or anxious than usual in the time leading up to it though, and also my white blood cell count was right near the top of the 'normal' range. So I'm wondering if it's possible I had a very mild early case. On the other hand, I've seen first hand reports of "air hunger" with general anxiety, and that's the best way I can think of to describe what it felt like the whole week prior.
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Old 04-22-20, 02:17 PM
  #259  
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We canceled all remaining hotel and airline reservations supporting racing. We may go to Moriarty, New Mexico later this year where my wife would attempt a new 20k national time trial record. However, that may just be whistling past the graveyard.
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Old 04-22-20, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Ttoc6 View Post
it seems to me that "flattening the curve" doesn't actually limit the number of people who get the disease, but rather just lengthens out the time it takes for that number to actually get it.
It has the potential to do both, but the PRIMARY benefit to flattening the curve is that we don't overwhelm medical resources, or lose a huge percentage of the workforce at once. That's not a "just", that's the difference in a manageable event and a devastating catastrophe.
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Old 04-23-20, 01:39 PM
  #261  
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Just watched my son's awards ceremony for the music school at Syracuse University. He won the faculty award for the sound recording technology program. His professor totally gushed over him. The whole thing was weird and awesome, being held on zoom and live streamed to facebook. A modern era tale sure to not be forgotten.
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Old 04-24-20, 10:06 AM
  #262  
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My wife is getting actual calls from patients this morning asking if it is OK to gargle Clorox.

The day can only get better.
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Old 04-24-20, 11:48 AM
  #263  
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Moderation note: If this thread turns political, I will have to move it back to the Covid 19 area in the lounge or P&R. This thread is about the impact of Covid 19 on racing. If you have made a political post, please delete it.
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Old 04-24-20, 12:09 PM
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sorry
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Old 05-03-20, 02:28 PM
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Celebrating my son's birthday and graduation today (it's really the 10th). Did so by going for family antibody tests. I guess we'll know in a week. My wife pointed out my "covid toes" today. Fascinating stuff.

My race calendar has evolved. My local HC hill climb got kicked to october. Felt I could wrap my head around getting fit for the first time in a long while. Maybe I'll look for a rabbit in a hat.
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Old 05-03-20, 02:50 PM
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We may be getting an antibody test; we can get one for 75$ which is a bargain to know where you stand.

There's very good news out of S. Korea; https://abcnews.go.com/Health/south-...ry?id=70312111 worth a read.
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Old 05-03-20, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by gsteinb View Post
Celebrating my son's birthday and graduation today (it's really the 10th). Did so by going for family antibody tests. I guess we'll know in a week. My wife pointed out my "covid toes" today. Fascinating stuff.

My race calendar has evolved. My local HC hill climb got kicked to october. Felt I could wrap my head around getting fit for the first time in a long while. Maybe I'll look for a rabbit in a hat.
Is the antibody test eelective at this point. Thanks for the info about the toes thing. An odd little rabbit hole to dive down for a bit. Once the dye from my climbing shoes comes out of my skin, I'll have to take a look!
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Old 05-03-20, 06:03 PM
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Not sure how you mean elective as regards a test. They can't make you have it. This is America.

It's covered by insurance.



mine kinda still look like this. At the time my wife assumed it was from sweating indoors in my cycling shoes.
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Old 05-03-20, 08:01 PM
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I've had toes like that several times for years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilblains
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Old 05-04-20, 12:38 PM
  #270  
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Here is an interesting video from my wifeís company that discusses Covid 19 and testing.

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Old 05-06-20, 11:34 AM
  #271  
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So USAC is not only sponsoring but also listing zwift virtual results on its website?

https://legacy.usacycling.org/result...rmit=2020-1517

are virtual standings going to count for upgrade purposes?

granted, their game, their rules, but this feels downright weird.

fwiw, the current national indoor champ (as crowned by Zwift) never made it out of cat-4 on the road (despite of how strong he is). No idea what to make of USAC’s wholesale embrace of this indoor stuff

it does appear, however, that USAC was able to increase membership by doing this. Whatever foots the bill, i guess

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Old 05-06-20, 11:54 AM
  #272  
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Originally Posted by echappist View Post
No idea what to make of USACís wholesale embrace of this indoor stuff

it does appear, however, that USAC was able to increase membership by doing this. Whatever foots the bill, i guess
Yeah, I think that's it. Once it turned out that there wasn't going to be much outdoor racing this year, they didn't want to (or couldn't afford to) have to be in a situation where they were returning license fees (the university I work for is $40 million in the hole for the year - mostly because of cancellations of elective medical/dental procedures at our hospitals/professional schools and athletics, but partially because of withdrawals, decreased enrollment, and housing refunds), so they figured they'd sponsor some online racing and maybe even pick up a few new people who otherwise wouldn't have because they don't want to race outdoors. If they can use Zwiftpower to reduce cheaters/sandbaggers (and maybe limit it to races with the cone of shame), they might be able to give their races an air of legitimacy. I doubt anything will go toward upgrades though. At least I'd hope not.
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Old 05-06-20, 01:50 PM
  #273  
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USAC should return some of the license fees paid. If they offered to return mine, I would give it to them as a donation. I only point this out since we are all donating our license fees to USAC. I see little value this season...yet but I am sympathetic to the USAC employees and feel they should be paid, if possible. USAC revenues must be a disaster.
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Old 05-09-20, 02:26 PM
  #274  
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@Hermes - San Onofre State park and trestles open again. Bathrooms closed and trail is packed with surfers and ebikes. Just an FYI.
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Old 05-09-20, 06:15 PM
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The multi-generational competitive group rides are increasing in S OC.

Certainly it is hard to define, but more racing IMO than virtual stuff. Also funny as the old grass roots sprint to the light, or the sign at the top of the hill are once again significant.

I'd call it racing. I don't know why it would't be.
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