Mobile 155

TP,
Just to be fair and because I don't believe you do any research here is a link explaining what Amazon wants out of the contractors you asked about. Try and fit your plan point by point into this picture.

https://logistics.amazon.com/

tandempower

These issues have already been discussed, but you rehash your POV to discredit mine. The reality is that instead of spending money on $34,000 delivery vans, they could be building trailer-lockers that don't have motors and systems to maintain or liability insurance. They already have a locker system but the lockers are few and far between. Mobile locker-trailers would be a way to expand the locker system and it would be the most efficient way to distribute goods from a remote central warehouse into neighborhoods.


What's more, trailer-lockers would be a win-win for driving and LCF freedom both because people can go pick up their packages however they want. If they drive home and want to stop and pick up their package on the way into their subdivision, they can do that. If they want to take a walk or a bike ride to do so, they can do that. If they want a local pizza delivery driver to bring their package, they can do that. If they want to pay a neighborhood kid to deliver parcels door-to-door by bike, they can do that.


Everything else you are saying is just rationalizing excuses for the Amazon-Mercedes deal that maximizes Mercedes vans sales by selling them in fleets of 20-40 so that they can turn around and tell their stock investors that they have the entire Amazon fleet lined up for years of sales, parts, and maintenance. Someone insisted that there are no kickbacks involved in Amazon and Mercedes scratching each others' backs in this deal. Of course that's silly and they're going to be good corporate friends after helping each other out in this way. It's only called 'kickbacks' if the benefits of friendship are paid directly.


The bottom line is that there is a more efficient way to distribute parcels but they probably won't dare to do it because if they back away from the Mercedes promotion at this point a bunch of lobbyist will start saying things like you do about people all expecting packages at their front doors and not wanting to pick them up at a locker two blocks away. The funny thing is they are not going to stop using USPS, so that option remains for delivery, but they could just create a more discount option for people to pick up their packages at a locker, and I bet that would entice more sales because it would be an even deeper shipping discount, or in the case of free shipping, a rebate.

Mobile 155

Look once again at the Amazon link again. Where is your idea even suggested? . Where did you find a Mercedes promotion? All the contractor vans already delivering to my area are Fords and Chryslers. In fact a company called On Trac I believe does a lot of the deliveries as well as the USPS. Also can you identify front door lobbyists. Just who might they be? Have you ever made door to door deliveries. Have you any training in logistics and warehousing? Can you identify how the sub contractors will get paid? Anything that shows you have a clue?

jon c. 

There's simply no reason to believe that's true. And no reason to believe bicycles would be more efficient. There are limited situations in urban areas where it is most efficient to deliver documents and small parcels by bicycle. And bicycles are widely used in such places. But for most of this country, powered machines will beat humans for cost and efficiency. This basic truth is why the industrial revolution happened. Machines are cheaper, better and faster.

dedhed

How much do you think "mobile trailer lockers" will cost? Where are you going to park these? Certainly not in the public Right of Way. Certainly not anywhere free.
Mobile trailers or kiosks are not without maintenance costs either.

"Amazon has not responded to our requests for more information, but as a point of comparison, in a competitive service from Luxer One, parcel locker installations appear to cost between $6,000 and $20,000, plus service fees, which presumably are costed out by landlords and property owners in the form of higher rents or other monthly service charges."
https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/27/am...ent-buildings/


https://westerncontainersales.com/sh...anta-maria-ca/

Machka 

Does this mean that you've contacted Amazon with your ideas?

Great!

Let us know what they say.

Mobile 155

Great links. Not that he will read them. And if he does do anything with the information. It doesn't fit in the dream.

CliffordK

Thanks,

I went back and re-read the first link yesterday, and came up with about the same interpretation.

I'm not quite sure what the $10K is for, but probably a franchise buy-in fee. Or, perhaps a loan/lease down payment.

I would presume that in one way or another, the contractor will be on the hook for the capital purchases of the $30K vans, whether it is through outright purchase, or lease to buy.

So, it is likely $10K PLUS $30K per van. For 10 vans, that comes up to $310,000. For 40 vans, $1.2 Million.

It doesn't preclude a E-Cycle business, but it does indicate that one would have to think big. Not just or two delivery cycles,but a whole fleet. Also covering more ground would likely mean less choice routes.

I think the second article indicated that drivers typically loaded/unloaded their own vans. But, it also means not to expect pre-filled mini-containers for the shipments.

Mobile 155

And to try and hit a moving target they have another plan of delivering the last mile and they will not have to provide the equipment to do it. How Amazon Is Making Package Delivery Even Cheaper | Fortune

I have a friend looking for part time work I may have him look into it.

tandempower

I explained the locker-trailer model as a more efficient way to put centralized sub-centers for distribution at the zip+4 level. That speaks for itself. Everything you're saying in this post are things people say to discredit an idea by going behind the idea instead of dealing with the idea directly.

This example illustrates exactly how easy it is to make an area LCF friendly and how difficult people like you make it by focusing negativity on local sub-centralization. If Amazon or any other distributor of anything has a regional warehouse distribution center that serves a range that's beyond bikeability, they are basically saving money on real-estate by investing it in motorized delivery. I.e. they don't want to buy/rent more local distribution centers, such as stores, so they use delivery vans instead. Now, I don't blame them for not wanting the stores and less development is good, but there's an in-between here, which I'm trying to explain, which is to have a locker-trailer instead of store. That way, the most they might have to pay is a fee to park the locker-trailer. Then, the locker-trailer acts as a local hub for people to pick up their packages or have them delivered by local kids on bikes, pizza delivery drivers, their mother-in-law or whomever.

You are avoiding the very concrete logistics that I am talking about by focusing on whether I have a background in logistics. I don't want to use the word 'ad hominem' because the bullies in P&R have taken that word and turned it into a way of further intensifying the ad hominem focus-shift, but there comes a point where you don't have anything more to say about the actual topic of discussion and then you should not keep going into talking about the other person's background, etc. Just say you have said all you have to say, and that you disagree because you like the idea of Amazon getting some suckers to buy 20-40 Mercedes vans and be locked into delivering parcels and managing other people to drive vans with parcels for as long as it takes to pay off the vans.

tandempower

Let's say you have one warehouse distribution center on the outskirts of a sprawling city like Orlando, Jacksonville, Tampa, Atlanta, etc. Now compare two options for distributing parcels: 1) you drive delivery trucks/vans individually back and forth to the single distribution center; or 2) you keep the delivery vehicles in local neighborhoods and shuttle the parcels to each local neighborhood in trailers that can be parked and serve as a local hub. Option #2 is more efficient whether you use vans, cars, bicycles, or blue llamas (my favorite, though it was another poster's idea).

If you don't understand why option#2 is more efficient, think about moving books between the library and your neighborhood. If you go pick up a few books at a time and bring them to your neighbors' houses, you have to return to the library a lot more often than if you pick up a trailer full of books, bring them to your neighborhood, and then bring them a few at a time to your neighbors' houses. It is more efficient to bring a larger load closer to the cluster of destinations where it will be delivered than to bring smaller loads one at a time.

tandempower

They know they are accountable for their decisions. I don't have to hold them accountable. They have to make the best decisions possible or they will be reforming their system yet again in a few years time. Nothing I've said here isn't something anyone can think up on their own. It's all a question of whether they want to put more vans on the road and more people in debt or minimize vehicle costs, traffic, and debt.

prj71

Everything TP posts here is a pipe dream. He must smoke a lot of weed to come up with all of his hair brained ideas.

dedhed

It is up to the contractor to decide what is more efficient, actually profitably rather than efficiency is the goal here, and not mutually exclusive. Amazon's only involvement will be as the provider of business with a central location for product pick up and some logistical assistance. As far as I can tell you are not required to lease/purchase their "insider deal" vans. You can purchase whatever you like (including blue llamas) or can get a better deal on. If you want to set up small mobile trailers, bikes, and llamas that is your issue as a contractor. I do think they would have something to say about it as well as the making customers go to a central neighborhood pickup location option as it is their reputation and dispute resolution mechanisms on the line if there are issues.

FWIW FedEx and DHL have been using contractors for years.
https://www.buildagroundbiz.com/cont...-opportunities

tandempower

Profitability and efficiency only coincide if the goal isn't to promote Mercedes van sales and drive up their stock that way. You see, Mercedes are expensive vehicles and so a high level of profit is built into each vehicle sale. So when you sell something expensive, especially if you sell a lot of them, you make a lot of money and if you recycle that profit to people who spend it on Amazon orders, for example, you are basically fiscally stimulating Amazon by getting your delivery agents to invest in an expensive delivery vehicle. That is a way of making profit that is actually more profitable by being less efficient. I.e. the less vehicles you use per delivery, the less money goes into the Mercedes-Amazon-Shareholder complex.

What I've tried to explain but no one is acknowledging is that you can reduce the number of vehicles used if you move the parcels in large bundles to distribution sub-centers and then deliver them door-to-door from there. It simply reduces a lot of wasted driving, whether you use cars or bikes for the last mile. It is the same as transit being much more efficient than everyone driving personal vehicles around town. Then you get people who say that no one wants to take transit and walk from the transit stop to their door, which is the same as what you are saying about parcel delivery. See the parallel? In transit, people are the parcel being delivered but the idea is the same, if you put less parcels in more vehicles and drive them around, you end up with a lot more vehicles and waste. That waste generates a lot of superfluous economic activity and transactions, however, so many people like that aspect of it better than they like efficiency. That is a major reason why US cities have evolved into such sprawling, wasteful, economic networks and why/how investors exploit them for revenues/money. It would be more efficient to use less vehicles and waste less time and other resources delivering parcels, but it would make less money so investors will invest in keeping more people busy for more hours driving around, and then in an LCF forum like this one you will hear that the majority of people simply don't want to drive less, that it's simple supply and demand that keeps people driving. It's not. It's structural inefficiency and avoidance of overcoming it due to fear of economic loss. Waste makes haste and haste makes money as long as fools are willing to invest in it and pay for the returns on the investment.

tandempower

For those interested: You could put two of these lockers back to back and mount them on a trailer. Then, you load them with parcels at the warehouse and bring them to the zip+4 of the parcels, unhitch and put a wheel lock on the trailer. Probably it would be good to have an overhanging roof for people to stand under while they open the locker.

Basically the trailers would look like bus stop shelters at their final destination.

prj71

Amazon tried bikes. It didn't work out. End of thread.

https://www.geekwire.com/2016/amazon-bike-couriers/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bicyc...165749019.html

https://www.geekwire.com/2016/amazon...ogram-seattle/

CliffordK

Oof...

This doesn't mean a similar arrangement isn't possible, but it also is an indication of the fickle nature of such contractor/subcontractor relationships.

So,for an all-in approach of building/purchasing 40 (really cheap) E-Cargo bikes at $4000 each would be an investment of maybe $160,000, plus 50 or so employees, plus service and maintenance provisions. Plus, if one is doing a mobile hub as @tandempower suggested, there would be investment in the truck. And, perhaps redundant equipment for 24/7 uptime. Office location... etc.

Certainly a lot less than investing in 40 vans at $30K each for $1.2 Million.

Nonetheless, it is not a small investment in money, time, and energy building up a small company. And, then having the carpet pulled out from under oneself in an instant.

The company may be able to endure in a different manner, but it might be hard if one lost the prime contractor.

Mobile 155

CliffordK

I'm not sure there would be any huge benefit of a mobile location vs fixed location.

It should only take a couple of minutes for a truck to pull up and fill and service 50 lockers or so.

Regularly moving the pickup location would be a hassle for customers.

What if one has the trailer lockers, and a couple of people take a few days to pick up their goods. Do you just pull the trailer and their goods away? Swap trailers, and transfer the goods from one to another trailer? Assuming there are open places for the unclaimed packages. Obviously one should have reasonably current status of all the lockers.

Also, wherever the lockers are, surveillance would be a good idea.

One wouldn't necessarily have to rent a place from a local business to install the lockers, but the cities may or may not want you to regularly drop off a dozen trailers without special parking permits.

Even neighbors might find it disturbing to have you drop a trailer in front of their house for a service they aren't using, bringing in people from all around to use the service at all hours in front of their house.

Nonetheless, lockers like that would be great for tourists. Travelling cyclists who need a part to be delivered in the next town they're heading for. Or, even rapid service for a part they need NOW.

CliffordK

The subcontractors still have to conform to local laws and standards, and have employee retention which means decent wages and benefits.

Hard to say if it makes good business sense for Amazon. They're talking about a huge profit potential for the subcontractors. At least on paper. So, paying the subcontractors $300,000 PROFIT or so for management duties is a big chunk of change.

Nonetheless, they're rapidly raising capitol, expecting these contractors to drop perhaps a $1 Million or more into equipment and business development.

And expecting the contractors to deal with equipment maintenance and etc.

I'd have to read the actual contract, but there likely is a way for Amazon to back out of the agreements. Thus leaving the contractors holding the capital assets (purchased and owned by the contractors).

Amazon has been researching drones. Initially marketed as flying, but driving drones just make a lot of sense. Or, perhaps a driving drone carrier, and flying drones for the last 100 feet to the doorstep.

And, if Amazon had the high-tech solution to delivery they liked, they could drop all the low tech solutions overnight.

tandempower

True. The benefit I saw in it was that the parcels could be organized at the warehouse so all the driver would have to do is unhitch the trailer, lock the wheel-lock, and leave.

I think the lockers have electronic tracking of what's been picked up and what hasn't. A way to solve this would be to have a courier deliver all the parcels that haven't been picked up yet and deliver them door-to-door.

Of course. Security was discussed a lot at the beginning of the thread.

If locker-trailers aren't an option, it would also be efficient to just drop off crates at each zip+4 and have local couriers deliver them. That way you drive one large truckload of crates around an area and then pick up the crates empty at the end of the day to return to the warehouse.

People are fickle. It's a wonder they tolerate delivery trucks, vans, pizza deliveries, mail trucks, etc. Personally, I would like to prohibit all motorized traffic along with a lot of other things, but I don't get my way.

Yes, and with the Kroger project for autonomous grocery delivery, those small EVs will make it even easier because you won't need to make it to a locker location.

dedhed

Contrary to some beliefs there is no Mercedes/Amazon conspiracy to get rich off the backs of contractors. They might well be using any brand of vehicle (Freightliner ring a bell?) in various parts of the country depending on local dealers. In all honesty I really don't even picture most contractors starting out actually buying vehicles. They will be leasing rather than having a $$$ capitol outlay for equipment while maintenance costs also usually fall on the leasing company. Each vehicle then only has to cover it's own lease/labor/overhead costs at first while profits can be directed back into the company until such time as credit is established to purchase vehicles, if that direction was you wanted to go (and I suspect many would not and just lease)

YOu put those ugly boxes in my neighborhood and I'm going to complain. Then it's only a matter of time until some junior thug wannabe busts the screen or some car hits it. These would need to be in some semi secure controlled atmosphere. Honestly I order on line so I DON'T have to go beyond my door to pick up packages. I'm sure not going to some semi local location to get my stuff that's why I paid shipping.

Amazon themselves isn't into small local, they are all about 1M + SF. Here's the one around here.
I will say I know UPS does drop trailers during the holidays in UP NORTH (tm) rural Wisconsin so drivers don't have to drive all the way back because everything didn't fit on their truck. I see the trailer in the gas station and behind vans when I'm up hunting. By the way, there is a llama farm about 5 miles from my deer stand, never saw a blue one though.

https://www.freightlinersprinterusa....ightliner/home

CliffordK

Apparently the Freightliner Sprinter is a rebadged Mercedes Sprinter.

Mobile 155