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Eroica and Coronavirus

Old 03-10-20, 10:49 AM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by Manny66 View Post
if You choose to live in fear thats your business. But dont talk down to me a in a condescending manner because I dont have the same views as yourself.
If you actually spoke as if you knew anything about the way Covid-19 is transmitted or the likelihood of serious illness or death among those infected, I'm sure you would get more empathetic responses to your perspective.

As things stand today, one in every 28 people infected by the virus are dead. That's in a roughly two month time period. Tell me, out of every 28 construction workers in the world, has one died on the job in the last two months? Let's say you know 100 guys on the job. Have four of them kicked the bucket since new years?
​​​​​
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Old 03-10-20, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Kilroy1988 View Post

As things stand today, one in every 28 people infected by the virus are dead.
​​​​​
Can you site reference, please?

I know someone at the CDC and frankly, they don't have conclusive numbers. The only percentage I've heard from broadcast news and spokepersons of representing health agencies is 2% fatal, and among them are segments of elder age, pre-existing weakened immune system.

No reliable or trustworthy numbers were or are provided of China. BTW: In China, a large portion of the population is never even considered in the country census reporting. We'll never know of those.

Regardless, its all highly alarming.

On topic: I will not be attending Eroica, CA.
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Old 03-10-20, 12:03 PM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by crank_addict View Post
Can you site reference.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...PqbjDL&ampcf=1

Sorry, funky link. It's from CNN.

That's what I've been seeing referenced ther past couple of days and where I got my %. 4,000 dead out of a bit more than 110,000 confirmed cases.
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Old 03-10-20, 12:03 PM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by Manny66 View Post
Unless youre going to go around French kissing and licking everybodys face that you meet, you shouldnt have to much to worry about.
I'm sure the several hundred dead Italians did very little licking before dying. 20% of Italy's (northern?) population are over 65 and these are the people who are especially vulnerable to infection from others. I wouldn't go near an airplane with 200 people sharing the same air, food and bathrooms. Then again, I'm 62 and have some pulmonary issues..
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Old 03-10-20, 12:31 PM
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This doesn't need to get political. Numbers from China are at least as reliable as numbers from CNN.

Back to EroicaCA...Would organizers postpone or cancel? If I bet that one or the other is very likely, which one occurs will change the rides I do over the next few weeks...Long climbing rides with some dirt thrown in OR high intensity intervals to improve my fitness for next year. (I'm 61 with an upgraded aortic valve but remain pretty immature/childish about many things.)

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Old 03-10-20, 12:35 PM
  #56  
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Originally Posted by Manny66 View Post
Feel free to quote me where I made light of PEOPLE dying....I made light of MYSELF dying.

Hate to break it to you, but We are All going into a wooden box someday.We are All going to die.Thats reality.

Unless youre going to go around French kissing and licking everybodys face that you meet, you shouldnt have to much to worry about.You can choose to hide in your house or not,Thats up to you, But like I already stated, Im going.
You're right! We are all going to die someday! But most of us, I think, are willing to take some small measures here and there to try to postpone that day.

Your mind is made up about going, and I won't argue with that decision. But please, do take reasonable precautions to prevent yourself and others from being infected. Even though you (and they) are going to die someday.
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Old 03-10-20, 12:38 PM
  #57  
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From the Bezo news outlet

https://www-washingtonpost-com.
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Old 03-10-20, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Classtime View Post
This doesn't need to get political. Numbers from China are at least as reliable as numbers from CNN.

Back to EroicaCA...Would organizers postpone or cancel? If I bet that one or the other is very likely, which one occurs will change the rides I do over the next few weeks...Long climbing rides with some dirt thrown in OR high intensity intervals to improve my fitness for next year. (I'm 61 with an upgraded aortic valve but remain pretty immature/childish about many things.)

Jeff
Yes, let's please keep this from becoming political and let's all keep to the facts, not speculation. In situations like this, prudence would indicate erring on the side of caution. Choose to take precautions or not, but don't chastise others for their choices.
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Old 03-10-20, 01:12 PM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by jonwvara View Post
Your mind is made up about going, and I won't argue with that decision. But please, do take reasonable precautions to prevent yourself and others from being infected.
I'd like to know what are those precautions. I mean, besides washing my hands twenty times a day and staying home if I develop any cold-like symptoms. It just seems like there's not a lot more I can do...
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Old 03-10-20, 01:39 PM
  #60  
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I wonder if there will be a surge in the purchase of surplus military gas masks?

Cheers
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Old 03-10-20, 02:06 PM
  #61  
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You have to take death rates from early stats with a big grain of salt. You always know how many have died. Until you start agressive and accurate screening you don't know how many people are actually infected. If you have 10 die and you know of only 100 case, that's a frightening 10%. If you have undersampled by a factor of 10 the count of people infected, perhaps because they are asymptomatic or because you started counting late into the spread, the real death rate will be 1%. You see where this is going. Likewise, if governments are saying the infected count is such and such when it is really 10 times that, then the apparent death rate will likewise compute out to be 10 times higher than it really is. Would governments do that? No comment, but the motivations are there, either to calm the populace (praiseworthy), or to make themselves look good (deplorable), or becasue they really don't know yet due to lack of facilities or resources.

Either way, it's like not going to work when you have a bad cold. If you don't spread it then the people who don't get it from you can't spread it.

On the other hand, I'm glad I don't drive a Toyota so I don't have to worry about the Corolla virus. Most cars will die from the corroda virus eventualoly.
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Old 03-10-20, 02:21 PM
  #62  
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Italy's coronavirus death toll jumped from 366 to 463 on Monday. It is the worst-hit country after China.

The number of confirmed infection also increased by 24% from Sunday, official figures showed.
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Old 03-10-20, 02:23 PM
  #63  
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Originally Posted by Classtime View Post
This doesn't need to get political. Numbers from China are at least as reliable as numbers from CNN.

Back to EroicaCA...Would organizers postpone or cancel? If I bet that one or the other is very likely, which one occurs will change the rides I do over the next few weeks...Long climbing rides with some dirt thrown in OR high intensity intervals to improve my fitness for next year. (I'm 61 with an upgraded aortic valve but remain pretty immature/childish about many things.)

Jeff
Yes, back on topic. I think there is a very high likelihood it will be cancelled. The big local public health risk is hundreds of people eating the same food. Think about the open trays of food at Cayucos, the cups of soup laid out at Halter Ranch, etc. At a minimum, we should see the Saturday night dinner cancelled and the rest stops downgraded to pre-packaged food. Yes that would suck, but an ice cold can of coke at the top of Cypress would be really, really nice.

Originally Posted by SurferRosa View Post
I'd like to know what are those precautions. I mean, besides washing my hands twenty times a day and staying home if I develop any cold-like symptoms. It just seems like there's not a lot more I can do...
Youíre right, the big part is the personal hygiene stuff but the other part is limiting social contact, which is what Jon in the OP is driving at. Thereís individual health risk and individual responsibility for public health stewardship. The individual risk for most of us, even the older guys, is pretty low. Notable exceptions are those who are immunocompromised. Those of us flying to get to California will increase the public health risk but how much, at least to me, is unclear. By Eroica time, my guess is there will be 10x if not more cases than today and most, if not all states in the lower 48 will be involved. You could maybe argue that by that point the public health risk of flying may actually be lower than today, I.e as likely to get and transmit the virus at home than while flying.

For those driving, I donít see it as too big a problem. Eroica is almost all outdoors, not too many people involved, and outside of the issues I noted above, probably not much more exposure than a lot of peoplesí workplaces.

I think if one wants a black/white answer and youíre flying, then donít go. Iím still planning on going as itís part of a larger trip that involves my family meeting up in LA to visit my son in college. Heís not coming home this summer. If things change with a lot of illness here in Virginia or if UCLA goes on some kind of isolation or school cancellation, then Iíll probably back out.
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Old 03-10-20, 02:44 PM
  #64  
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Originally Posted by SurferRosa View Post
I'd like to know what are those precautions. I mean, besides washing my hands twenty times a day and staying home if I develop any cold-like symptoms. It just seems like there's not a lot more I can do...
I'm not an infectious disease expert. I would go to the CDC web site and see what measures they recommend for people who will be traveling to infected areas.
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Old 03-10-20, 02:44 PM
  #65  
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Originally Posted by SurferRosa View Post
I'd like to know what are those precautions. I mean, besides washing my hands twenty times a day and staying home if I develop any cold-like symptoms. It just seems like there's not a lot more I can do...

Good question. There are additional things you can do, and just as importantly NOT do. A number of good practices are outlined in this article. Just scroll down to the section dealing with how to prepare...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s/?arc404=true
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Old 03-10-20, 02:50 PM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by daveda View Post
Italy's coronavirus death toll jumped from 366 to 463 on Monday. It is the worst-hit country after China.

The number of confirmed infection also increased by 24% from Sunday, official figures showed.
According to the NY Times and the Guardian, the CDC reported 631 today
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Old 03-10-20, 02:52 PM
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I had a scheduled doctor's appointment today. My physician offered his elbow for me to bump with my elbow. I noticed that they had a few extra bottles of hand sanitizer in the office and one in the vestibule so that folks can use it upon entry and exit.

A lot of little common-sense things can probably go a long way. Some stores are keeping wipes close to shopping carts. Use them! Same with gas pumps. Some stations have hand sanitizer dispensers close by. Use them. If they don't, easy enough to carry some with you.
I stopped grabbing handles in bathrooms years ago. I only do so with a paper towel now. Many bathroom doors have the "foot grab" and if they don't, I use a paper towel and discard it after leaving the room.

I would not be surprised to see an increase in cancelled events. The wife and I have scheduled a cruise for later in the year. We got a message from our cruise line that anyone that has a cruise booked between now and May 31st is being offered credits to be used for purchases on-deck as an incentive to not cancel.

We have discussed whether to cancel or not and for now are standing pat.
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Old 03-10-20, 03:11 PM
  #68  
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@jimmuller makes a good point. I just did a little math on the NY Times numbers, and the results are interesting:

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Old 03-10-20, 03:16 PM
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I emailed The Eroica CA organizers about me changing my route from the Heroic to the La Via Dello Scalatore route (ironically I am coming off a 2 week flu stint) and as a side question asked about the possibility of cancelling and they emailed back to say they have no plans to cancel at this time. If there is anything good to come out of this, might it be that attendance will be WAY down and possibly less risky?
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Old 03-10-20, 05:14 PM
  #70  
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Originally Posted by joesch View Post
Agree, the goal is to buy more time and slow down the infection rate.
Sad truth is that most of us in urban areas will be fighting this virus.
I guess i should be GLAD that I live in BFE small agricultural town, CA. I still hate it there though! might be moving to another small CA town, but this one is in wine country, and has a lot more going for it, even though it is about the same size.
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Old 03-10-20, 05:53 PM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by Spaghetti Legs View Post
Yes, back on topic. I think there is a very high likelihood it will be cancelled. The big local public health risk is hundreds of people eating the same food. Think about the open trays of food at Cayucos, the cups of soup laid out at Halter Ranch, etc. At a minimum, we should see the Saturday night dinner cancelled and the rest stops downgraded to pre-packaged food. Yes that would suck, but an ice cold can of coke at the top of Cypress would be really, really nice.

Youíre right, the big part is the personal hygiene stuff but the other part is limiting social contact, which is what Jon in the OP is driving at. Thereís individual health risk and individual responsibility for public health stewardship. The individual risk for most of us, even the older guys, is pretty low. Notable exceptions are those who are immunocompromised. Those of us flying to get to California will increase the public health risk but how much, at least to me, is unclear. By Eroica time, my guess is there will be 10x if not more cases than today and most, if not all states in the lower 48 will be involved. You could maybe argue that by that point the public health risk of flying may actually be lower than today, I.e as likely to get and transmit the virus at home than while flying.

For those driving, I donít see it as too big a problem. Eroica is almost all outdoors, not too many people involved, and outside of the issues I noted above, probably not much more exposure than a lot of peoplesí workplaces.

I think if one wants a black/white answer and youíre flying, then donít go. Iím still planning on going as itís part of a larger trip that involves my family meeting up in LA to visit my son in college. Heís not coming home this summer. If things change with a lot of illness here in Virginia or if UCLA goes on some kind of isolation or school cancellation, then Iíll probably back out.
And, for those that don't know, that's Spaghetti Legs, MD. That may not necessarily make him a communicable disease expert, but he's on the front line in an emergency room, so he knows a thing or two on this subject.

Also note that about a week ago I spent several nights in a cramped RV with "Dr. Ferrari". I've had a fever and a cough since Saturday. Since I haven't heard that doc has any symptoms, I can only guess that the probable infection was from the plane ride between Arizona to Portland. Unless I can figure out a way to take two more vacation days to drive from Portland to the Bay Area and back, the likelihood of me going to Eroica this year is diminishing.
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Old 03-10-20, 06:00 PM
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There are more than just health concerns regarding the events.

Liability concerns are probably more serious for organizers. With the plaintiff bar in CA, FL, TX, and NY/NJ especially aggressive about ambulance-chasing any deep pockets, and with legislatures that are made up of the same ilk, not canceling an event, combined with the ambulance-chasers and stupid juries who don't really care about facts or personal accountability, the recipe is there to be blamed for even one sick person and losing the event forever.

It's not if the above situation will happen, it's when and how often. That's the American way, has been trending since the 60's as the entitlement mentality takes over more and more of our culture.
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Old 03-10-20, 06:09 PM
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I'd suggest we shy away from the political commentary. It's actually in the rules of this forum when you sign up...
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Old 03-10-20, 06:41 PM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by gugie View Post
I'd suggest we shy away from the political commentary. It's actually in the rules of this forum when you sign up...
Nothing political about it. I suggest facts aren't always welcome. Our society is changing, period. No different than the weather changing. That creates decision parameters that go beyond health and safety concerns. People that make decisions have to consider every consequence of their decisions, and I just brought up a concern that was not of much substance 50-60 years ago, but is a significant factor in every event plan. While the health effects of COVID-19 are real, the litigation is coming, and it's effects are just as real. Bank on it. As an event organizer, it will not matter if common sense dictates that there is a likelihood of getting sick while enclosed with a large group of people. Statistically, you are likely to get sick, and likely you will. However, if you can blame it on someone and turn that blame into money....that's become an unmistakable aspect of our society, mainly because there is an entire industry getting a good chunk out of creating that impression, chasing that impression, and collecting from that impression. That is a fact.

There is no way an event can create a waiver that eliminates that possibility. That ship has sailed.
There is no way an event can screen out those who actually have an awareness of exposure. People simply don't behave like they should.
There is no way an event can screen out those who have no awareness of exposure. People simply don't know who is in the entire web of contacts.
Having an event now is a risky proposition, much more from a financial liability position than any health proposition.
That risk is exponentially greater now, because our entire system is changing, has been changing. That's all. Nothing political about it.
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Old 03-10-20, 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by RobbieTunes View Post
Nothing political about it. I suggest facts aren't always welcome. Our society is changing, period. No different than the weather changing. That creates decision parameters that go beyond health and safety concerns. People that make decisions have to consider every consequence of their decisions, and I just brought up a concern that was not of much substance 50-60 years ago, but is a significant factor in every event plan. While the health effects of COVID-19 are real, the litigation is coming, and it's effects are just as real. Bank on it. As an event organizer, it will not matter if common sense dictates that there is a likelihood of getting sick while enclosed with a large group of people. Statistically, you are likely to get sick, and likely you will. However, if you can blame it on someone and turn that blame into money....that's become an unmistakable aspect of our society, mainly because there is an entire industry getting a good chunk out of creating that impression, chasing that impression, and collecting from that impression. That is a fact.

There is no way an event can create a waiver that eliminates that possibility. That ship has sailed.
There is no way an event can screen out those who actually have an awareness of exposure. People simply don't behave like they should.
There is no way an event can screen out those who have no awareness of exposure. People simply don't know who is in the entire web of contacts.
Having an event now is a risky proposition, much more from a financial liability position than any health proposition.
That risk is exponentially greater now, because our entire system is changing, has been changing. That's all. Nothing political about it.
All I can reply is...

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