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Eroica and Coronavirus

Old 03-10-20, 06:52 PM
  #76  
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^ Yep. Lawsuit(s) already filed against a cruise line.

2020 Giro only a month away. Tick, tick...
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Old 03-10-20, 07:07 PM
  #77  
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Originally Posted by jimmuller View Post
You have to take death rates from early stats with a big grain of salt. You always know how many have died. Until you start agressive and accurate screening you don't know how many people are actually infected. If you have 10 die and you know of only 100 case, that's a frightening 10%. If you have undersampled by a factor of 10 the count of people infected, perhaps because they are asymptomatic or because you started counting late into the spread, the real death rate will be 1%. You see where this is going. Likewise, if governments are saying the infected count is such and such when it is really 10 times that, then the apparent death rate will likewise compute out to be 10 times higher than it really is. Would governments do that? No comment, but the motivations are there, either to calm the populace (praiseworthy), or to make themselves look good (deplorable), or becasue they really don't know yet due to lack of facilities or resources.

Either way, it's like not going to work when you have a bad cold. If you don't spread it then the people who don't get it from you can't spread it.

On the other hand, I'm glad I don't drive a Toyota so I don't have to worry about the Corolla virus. Most cars will die from the corroda virus eventualoly.
In lockdown Italy with 60,500,000+ pop. Say if 1,200 unfortunately perish due from it, that's approx. 0.002 percent.

One fatality is bad enough but without getting personal, we've got to realize percentages before hysterics. I'm quite surprised the many already hitting the panic button.
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Old 03-10-20, 07:34 PM
  #78  
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I don't think that shutting down these types of events is panicking

there is no way to stop the virus until we have a vaccine

stopping the spread of the virus is therefore the only way to curb the rate of infection

you guys mention that the fatality rate is low but it is not low in certain age groups----if you are old and get covid-19, you are very likely to die

Seattle Times just posted that there are 10 more long term care facilities that have been infected

Harvard just told all their students not to come back from spring break

I kind of think you guys are underreacting, if that's a word
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Old 03-10-20, 07:42 PM
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Originally Posted by jet sanchEz View Post
I don't think that shutting down these types of events is panicking

there is no way to stop the virus until we have a vaccine

stopping the spread of the virus is therefore the only way to curb the rate of infection

you guys mention that the fatality rate is low but it is not low in certain age groups----if you are old and get covid-19, you are very likely to die

Seattle Times just posted that there are 10 more long term care facilities that have been infected

Harvard just told all their students not to come back from spring break

I kind of think you guys are underreacting, if that's a word
Yes, it's a word, and a thing.
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Old 03-10-20, 08:13 PM
  #80  
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Good thing I'm an antisocial *******. I'll never catch this bug

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Old 03-10-20, 08:29 PM
  #81  
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Originally Posted by crank_addict View Post
In lockdown Italy with 60,500,000+ pop. Say if 1,200 unfortunately perish due from it, that's approx. 0.002 percent.

One fatality is bad enough but without getting personal, we've got to realize percentages before hysterics. I'm quite surprised the many already hitting the panic button.
Sure, there is a level of hysteria. But that does not negate the current mortality rate of covid19 is 30 times higher than the flu. And while I'm not concerned about my personal safety, I don't want to be typhoid mary to the immunocompromised.

One of the primary reasons the 1918 flu killed so many was governments suppressed communication about it. So what's worse, a run on toilet paper because of over-communication or a couple million dead because of under communication?

So cancelling a vintage bike ride does not make one whit of difference in anyone's life.
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Old 03-10-20, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by crank_addict View Post
In lockdown Italy with 60,500,000+ pop. Say if 1,200 unfortunately perish due from it, that's approx. 0.002 percent.
One fatality is bad enough but without getting personal, we've got to realize percentages before hysterics. I'm quite surprised the many already hitting the panic button.
I think you're looking at it wrong. 631 have died of approx.10,000 infected and as noted earlier, the rate of infection is a guess and very likely underestimated. Western nations don't have anywhere near the number of test kits required to properly assess the real infection rates. All we can do is play it safe and quarantine until the money and resources are allocated to properly deal with getting hard medical facts (instead of bailing out hotel chains.) We don't have the infrastructure to deal with this problem any better than Italy. Italy has subsidized medical but the US has socio-economic influences where low income people avoid being testing for fear of the expense, even if you tell them it's free. There's no trust in government out there. I've been following some numbers closely and the fatality rates of infected persons ranges from .01% for 20 year olds to ~ 7% for the elderly but those are still just speculation. Last week there was a great math-stats guy on the NY Times explaining how fast this can grow but I can't find the link.
BTW, there's a report today from a Canadian in a northern Italy hospital saying that resources are already so stretched that they are now doing triage to select those that get medical intervention versus those being left to survive without the care they really need. That may be the cause of the 36% bump in fatalities this past few days. It's a big number.

Last edited by clubman; 03-10-20 at 08:34 PM.
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Old 03-10-20, 10:30 PM
  #83  
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Fears and panic by an airline and a few disruptive passengers over another passenger sneezing with allergies.
United flight Denver to Newark

https://amp-usatoday-com.
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Old 03-10-20, 10:32 PM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by Kilroy1988 View Post
If you actually spoke as if you knew anything about the way Covid-19 is transmitted or the likelihood of serious illness or death among those infected, I'm sure you would get more empathetic responses to your perspective.

As things stand today, one in every 28 people infected by the virus are dead. That's in a roughly two month time period. Tell me, out of every 28 construction workers in the world, has one died on the job in the last two months? Let's say you know 100 guys on the job. Have four of them kicked the bucket since new years?
​​​​​

FYI, I read several detailed and lengthy Medical Reports concerning the Covid -19, and That is the reason why Im not too concerned about the entire matter.
And I could really care less about "empathetic responses" from anyone. If thats what your aim is in your post, well I'll get you some tissue for your tears, but since all these Paranoid Corona virus knuckleheads already bought out the entire Stock chances are likely you wont have any to wipe those tears of yours.

Lastly, Your Death ratio's are a little skewed and lopsided in your favor , if you're trying to prove a point lets tally Covid-19 deaths and all the work related construction Deaths WORLDWIDE . Go google it,,and,,,Yup you lose.
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Old 03-10-20, 10:45 PM
  #85  
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Manny66 Huh? Has one out of every twenty eight construction workers worldwide died in the last two months? Because if not, then my previous point remains exactly the same. Not everyone has Covid-19. Not everyone is a construction worker. You can't compare grand totals, only percentages.

Once as many people have been infected with Covid-19 as there are construction workers in the world (something likely to happen in a matter of weeks or months) then I assure you there will be far more deaths from the virus than work-related incidents in the same period of time.

And you might want to look up what the word empathy means. It has nothing to do with sympathy and tears.

Other than that recommendation, I'm done talking to you about this, because you clearly don't know how numbers and percentages and the rapid pace of infection work, and are apparently trying very hard not to learn. Entire nations are on lock-down but you know better!

Last edited by Kilroy1988; 03-10-20 at 11:02 PM.
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Old 03-11-20, 12:08 AM
  #86  
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Originally Posted by Kilroy1988 View Post
Manny66 Huh? Has one out of every twenty eight construction workers worldwide died in the last two months? Because if not, then my previous point remains exactly the same. Not everyone has Covid-19. Not everyone is a construction worker. You can't compare grand totals, only percentages.

Once as many people have been infected with Covid-19 as there are construction workers in the world (something likely to happen in a matter of weeks or months) then I assure you there will be far more deaths from the virus than work-related incidents in the same period of time.

And you might want to look up what the word empathy means. It has nothing to do with sympathy and tears.

Other than that recommendation, I'm done talking to you about this, because you clearly don't know how numbers and percentages and the rapid pace of infection work, and are apparently trying very hard not to learn. Entire nations are on lock-down but you know better!
O.K. You WIn, Im terrified ,and I will go stock up on toilet paper and bottled water ASAP.

You continue to make these ridiculous ratio comparisons, comparing my job site population in relation to the population of the entire World,thats an asinine comparison. But here's one, Not one single person I work with or know, has been diagnosed with the Covid-19, ,have You? But I'll be really really scared if you insist.
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Old 03-11-20, 12:35 AM
  #87  
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Bike rides? Hell I'm worried to take my little kids across town to see their 75yo grandma. God knows how soon they’ll get it from daycare, but they surely will.
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Old 03-11-20, 12:42 AM
  #88  
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Originally Posted by TugaDude View Post
A number of good practices are outlined in this article...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s/?arc404=true
Thoughtful article. Thanks.
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Old 03-11-20, 01:47 AM
  #89  
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Last week I flew from Australia to Asia. I am not concerned.

If I get flu symptoms, I consume citrus fruit or juice for vitamin C. If it gets more severe, I take Eucalyptus oil.

With the exception of people with poor health, it is a good chance to take advantage of cheap holidays.

Last edited by alo; 03-11-20 at 01:51 AM.
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Old 03-11-20, 02:16 AM
  #90  
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Originally Posted by gugie View Post
Unless I can figure out a way to take two more vacation days to drive from Portland to the Bay Area and back, the likelihood of me going to Eroica this year is diminishing.
That would be too bad, I was looking forward to meeting you and others. I am just coming off a flu and hopefully getting back to training this weekend. I am thinking of coming regardless and just avoiding large crowds as some here will be attending anyway . . . or so they say. I'll just take 2 weeks to get home by car.
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Old 03-11-20, 02:20 AM
  #91  
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Well, here's a comparison point for those of us lucky enough to be in California where we "only" have 157 cases diagnosed so far and 3 deaths (a 1.9% death rate). However, the number of cases should rise substantially once we get enough RNA extraction and test kits to meet needs and demands.

Where it hit home for me - In Mid January when the Covid-19 outbreak became public in China, my Filipino nurse caretaker for my daughter was on vacation in the Philippines. 3 cases became known in the Philippines, 2 Chinese Nationals were near Manila, and both had traveled from Wuhan by air and the international Terminal at the Manila International Airport. Another was a Chinese tourist who traveled to the Philippines and then became ill. All 3 were tested and were positive. The Chinese tourist had left to go back to Hubei province just before her secondary test came up positive. Of the other two, a 38 y/o woman recovered and subsequently returned to China, the other, a 44 y/o male died in the hospital. As of today, after significant travel restriction since late January, the Philippines has had 33 known positive cases, and of course, many many people under review or surveillance for symptoms and testing.

How did that impact me? My nurse had a reunion with some other nurse friends at the hospital where she trained. When she got there, her nurse friends asked why she wasn't wearing a mask - the first two Covid-19 patients had presented there a few days earlier, and had been transferred to a tertiary hospital later that day. The hospital was now quarantining any staff that had contact with them. The reunion was held in the cafeteria, where you can guess lots of people come and go. Was it possible some staff who had had contact with the Covid-19 patients had also visited the cafeteria? Sure. Likely, don't know. But it gets you thinking. Also, my nurse left the Philippines on Jan. 30 on an outbound flight from Manila to LAX, but we didn't know who, if any on that flight, might have been a traveler who had gone through China at some point. We now know there were outbreaks in Iran and California beginning in early to mid February from people who DID travel from China to Iran and China to the US. The Italian outbreak supposedly occurred from a local who had dinner with a Chinese traveler, and subsequently traveled himself throughout northern Italy. Anyway, since the flight on Jan. 30, I had my nurse voluntarily quarantine for 14 days once she landed, and I paid for her to be off work because it was my request. Luckily, she is fine, and her reunion friends are ok too. But one cannot be too careful, especially when it comes to my family's health.

On a second note, my sister-&-brother-in-laws live in Woodland Hills. Their adult children have a classmate whose Parents and adult brothers have been home quarantined after testing positive coronavirus . The other son, age 50, is hospitalized due to pre-existing conditions compromising his health, especially with this CV infection. They live in Tarzana, and had recently traveled and skied in the Swiss and Italian Alps (which is north of Milan in the northern provinces of Italy) areas and recently returned. No doubt they picked up their infections from Italy, as have a number of countries in Europe whose infections came from visiting or visitors from Italy or Iran where hotspots have now occurred.

As a health care professional, I do not panic, but do take reasonable precautions for my family and friends. I've cautioned many as I'm doing here. Each one of us, as adults, can decide on the level of risk they think is out there, and how they wish to deal with it. I'm not terribly happy with the trends, and for sure, would not like to see Eroica cancelled, or even suffer a big drop in attendance if it was possible. But I'm guessing we are going to see, as we have in China, and seeing now in Italy and Iran, things getting worse for some time before more stringent measure are undertaken, and then hopefully we see thing level off and decline. When and how that happens is yet to be known, at least in California and the US.

So for each of us, depending on our own situations, we will make our own decisions about risking exposure or potential contamination, and the issues of attending a reasonably large event like Eroica - remember, we were looking at hopefully 1000+ Classic riders and family, plus at least 300+ NOVA riders, all piling into Cambria from Thursday through at least Sunday, this in the village of Cambria, population of just under 6000 . Or whether it gets reduced or cancelled unilaterally, we just don't know. For sure, these considerations will also play out with other big sporting events like the NBA games (my Lakers), Major League Baseball (LA Dodgers), then maybe even into College Football season if the CV infections don't abate by then. Even the Tokyo Summer Olympics are at risk even though Japan has had relatively few cases, the risk of importing cases is real. As with cancellations of Italian bike races and soccer matches, there's the real issue of community spread and lack of personal space distancing. Santa Clara county has already asked for cancellation of any meetings of 1000 or more.

For sure, If any one of us wants to go to Eroica, and has fun and remains healthy, I'm happy for them and hope they share how good a time they had for any of us who couldn't or wouldn't go. I personally had recruited a number of people from the Velo-Retro ride, Manny included. Surely, I'd even go up after the Covid infection crisis is over, and try to ride the route myself (or with a few other souls or locals who want to go) when I'm able and fully recovered from my back injury. However, now may not be the time for me or my family to go if there is any significant risk. YMMV.
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Old 03-11-20, 03:02 AM
  #92  
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My 2 Cents: When it comes to the health of you or your loved ones, why risk it? As others have said, there's always next year.
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Old 03-11-20, 03:08 AM
  #93  
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I find this chart quite useful

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Old 03-11-20, 05:53 AM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by alo View Post
Last week I flew from Australia to Asia. I am not concerned.

If I get flu symptoms, I consume citrus fruit or juice for vitamin C. If it gets more severe, I take Eucalyptus oil.

With the exception of people with poor health, it is a good chance to take advantage of cheap holidays.
That is fine as long as you don't pass an undetected case to anyone else.
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Old 03-11-20, 06:09 AM
  #95  
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Originally Posted by jimmuller View Post
That is fine as long as you don't pass an undetected case to anyone else.
Yes, it can be compared to the old idea of "taking one for the team," where one does something personally painful or disadvantageous to benefit one's teammates. In the context of the virus, some see community members as teammates, while others see them as a bunch of strangers to whom they owe nothing. It's not easy to persuade members of the second group to move to the first, it would seem.
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Old 03-11-20, 06:16 AM
  #96  
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Originally Posted by jimmuller View Post
That is fine as long as you don't pass an undetected case to anyone else.
^ Jim said it correctly. The problem is undetected carriers combined with immunocompromised recipients. For the vast majority of us, infection will mean little more than an inconvenience. For the few...it's bad.
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Old 03-11-20, 06:18 AM
  #97  
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As I said previously, prudence dictates erring on the side of caution. A lot of germs are spread by those who show up at work or attend crowded gatherings when they should be home recuperating. Some wear it as a "badge of honor" that they show up when sick. Then the rest of the office gets sick. Unless we change that mentality, infection rates will continue to rise.
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Old 03-11-20, 06:30 AM
  #98  
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All this talk of cancelling the event makes me want to attend that much more. Hopefully if the event is ultimately cancelled (seems highly likely) a few people show up and ride the event informally, and completely free, without the dubious rules forbidding things sane people ride with, like clipless pedals. I'm about 4 hours away, and plan to drive over for the day and check things out, whichever way it goes.

I don't really see this potential cancellation as any loss, what's so hard about using a map, bringing your own food along? I think an informal event could actually be much more fun than the sponsored one.
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Old 03-11-20, 07:32 AM
  #99  
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Originally Posted by TugaDude View Post
As I said previously, prudence dictates erring on the side of caution. A lot of germs are spread by those who show up at work or attend crowded gatherings when they should be home recuperating. Some wear it as a "badge of honor" that they show up when sick. Then the rest of the office gets sick. Unless we change that mentality, infection rates will continue to rise.
I remember a guy who got a gold watch because he never missed a day in 25 years. the thing was he'd come into work whilst he was sick and infect others or they'd become a carrier and take the bug home to the wife and children. He was not very well liked because of that.

I think it's a near certainty that some people who kow they might have the virus will still go out and about.

Cheers
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Old 03-11-20, 07:43 AM
  #100  
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Originally Posted by sumrak454 View Post
111111 ineee))))))))))
Welcome to BF but I must say your multiple posts just to run up your post count up are incredibly discourteous.

If you continue many of us will put you on our Ignore lists.
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