branko_76 

In 40 or 50 years from now, when this bike has been handed down, chained to a post, left in the rain and ridden 1000's of miles without maintenance, will it still be restorable like the 40 or 50 year old bikes we currently restore and enjoy?

sheddle

I see Giant Cadexes, Trek 2100s, and old Looks being ridden.

The durability of vintage bikes is real, but there's always survivor bias going on. You aren't seeing the bikes which rusted to death outside, or got bent in a crash, or rusted through because someone spent a winter training on it without protecting the top tube. You're mostly seeing the survivors maintained by enthusiasts.

merziac

Short answer, no.

When this new crap succumbs to the ravages of time, neglect, lubes that turn to sludge, parts and pieces that melt, deteriorate and implode, these will join the flood of planned obsolescence that can't be bothered to supply parts for components that have been updated out of existence well before their time.

Threadless, cartridge, disposable cookie cutter crap I tell ya.

tyrion

Carbon eventually explodes. It's just a matter of time.

polymorphself 

I think a huge part of what we do here works because patina, even a lot of it, looks good on steel (even if that notion is a little romantic). You probably can’t say the same for the above.

On top of that, the C&V bike as we know it looks virtually the same to the untrained eye from the early 20th century to the late 1980’s. New people come into this hobby because this is a bicycle that has had virtually the same look and style for 100 years. A lot of charm and mystique and international history comes with that. I assume modern bikes change shape, size etc. much too frequently to leave the same lasting impression. But I guess we’ll see. I realize this doesn't address the question of reliability of material, but I'm not sure it'll matter if the allure of "C&V" doesn't keep up with the bikes.

thinktubes 

After the bomb, it will be all cockroaches and carbon Treks...

merziac

These bikes while technolgically superior, maybe, they only represent a fleeting snapshot where as C+V represent decades and era's, some timeless, some not.

Few will care about these very far down the road but the ones that survive may be very rare if the majority of them expire in one way or another and they will not live forever like what came before them.

sheddle

I swear I'm not trying to be iconoclastic but I'm almost positive people said the same thing about Cannondales.
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bikemig 

When gen z ers become old enough that they want to relive their youth, this bike will become a classic.

downtube42

Probably not. But does it matter?

While I just built up a steel bike, I didn't build it for its condition in 40 or 50 years, I built it to ride today. The same reason I'd buy a vintage bike or a plastic bike - to ride.

3speedslow

Chicken little DNA will become dominate and it will be ready to ride but they won’t dare!

Salamandrine 

The carbon fiber will be OK. The plastic that's holding it together, probably not. Depends.

Carbon fiber would last a lot longer if they made it out of aluminum.

branko_76 

I'm not thinking about damaged bikes. Most of the bikes I restore are 1970's era consumer grade 10 speed sport bikes, most were discarded or abandoned, none owned by enthusiasts. I find them at yard sales, alleys, thrift stores and chained to street poles for years. The last one I picked up was locked to a fence for over 5 years. I walked by it daily and watched the parts get picked off of it until I decided to set it free.

branko_76 

Why wouldn't it matter?

How does your 74ish Windsor ride?

SurferRosa

Because there is no god?

obrentharris 

Yeah, bicycle chains and pneumatic tires are just trendy disposable garbage. Don't get me started on rubber grips, handlebar tape, cables, and those flimsy derailleurs!
High wheelers with solid rubber tires are the only way to go.
Brent

downtube42

I don't buy bikes for their distant future, that's why it doesn't matter (to me). The Windsor was fun, as was my vintage Motobecane before that and my vintage Schwinns back further.

The Windsor goes up for sale as soon as I can find a saddle for it. The Selle Anatomica moved to the new bike, and the Windsor will, with luck, go to someone who will ride it and enjoy.

PatTheSlat 

So would you consider the $6,000+ bike in your original post to be "consumer grade" and something that wouldn't be owned by an enthusiast? You're comparing two different things here, and adding in a good bit of survivorship bias. There were many vintage mid to high end steel road bikes that fell apart. How many heat treated Reynolds frames cracked before they finally figured it out? How about the early 80s Treks with the flawed fork crowns that are known for breaking?

If you want to draw a parallel to a modern day equivalent of a "consumer grade 10 speed sport bike" the most apt comparison is probably your typical $400 entry level bike shop hybrid. And I'll bet those will survive just as much abuse as any 70's boom-era bike. Heck, likely even more considering the corrosion resistance of aluminum and the strength of double-wall aluminum rims compared to the old chromed steel garbage.

Plus it's not like these bikes you're finding and rebuilding have been sitting outside for 50 years. If it's anything like what I typically buy, I'd bet most of them have been hanging in people's garages protected from the weather. Would a carbon Trek Domane survive hanging in someone's garage? I'd say probably, yeah. Vintage bikes, even heavy duty low end ones, absolutely can be destroyed through being "chained to a post, left in the rain and ridden 1000's of miles without maintenance." I even have an electroforged Schwinn frame in my garage right now that has a rotted out chainstay.

RiddleOfSteel

I am....not going to fall for this sort of thing (again?). Time and chance, moth and rust--all have their way with created things, both precious and expendable. Technologies to both read/examine (on the surface and sub-surface a la X-ray) a carbon frame and to repair it seamlessly and properly have yet to either exist or mature to a state of affordability, reliability and efficiency. Given 20-30 years, when these bikes become C&V in their own right, I am confident that those tools will be available--if not earlier. Nothing man-made is perfect or without vulnerability.

I'll buy one of these, as a frameset--but in super nutty blue/violet/pink/teal metallic with a gloss clear coat--and let you all know in 30 years.

tkamd73 

To put directly, not a chance!
Tim

Chombi1 

And yes,.......last night,........ I was staring at the Weinmann Carrera 400 brake lever hoods on my Peugeot PY10FC, while slathering Aerospace 303 on them, wondering if I'll ever see another perfect NOS pair in the wild, ever again........ The same goes for the Spidel LSX hoods on my Gitane TdF.........
EVERYTHING is finite and would all be outlived by cockroaches, after the end of human civilization.

Lascauxcaveman 

All kinds of plastic gets brittle over 30-40 years, in my experience.

jamesdak 

I hope so because this is already 20 years old and I hope I can still be riding it 30 years from now.


55 miles on this Saturday.

madpogue 

Oh there is a God, but that's irrelevant to bikes that have no soul.

This thread is starting to read like a bad Kansas song.....

3speedslow

How did Keith Richards not make the list of after doomsday life?!!

i hope this thread stays good natured and funny!