auchencrow

The recent sale of a '73 Raleigh Record Ace on eBay caught our attention, and many here were shocked to see it sell for $3650.

I was not one of them.

Though I am the biggest cheapskate when it comes to buying bikes, the fact that there were TWO well-heeled people who happened to be looking for the same bike at the same time seems a little more than a coincidence to me.

It showed that there are many others too, who would be interested in what is by now approaching the status of unobtanium, in the way of a few legendary models from a revered manufacturer.



I have seen this kind of a phenomenon before, with old ("vintage") American guitars. For example, years ago, despite that late 50's Gibson Les Pauls had already started their upward price spiral, I could have purchased one for around eight hundred dollars.

- Oh if I only HAD eight hundred dollars back then!
Today, that same guitar is changing hands for $200,000 to $750,000.



Will this happen with bikes?

- Maybe not to the same extent, but I think the potential is there, because bikes share many of the same portents: They are products of art and industry, possess true functional beauty, have not been made for many years, are in limited supply (a supply that is diminishing daily) and they are likely to capture the attention and imagination of a younger generation because they do have a place in popular culture - (not just here in the US, but elsewhere as well.)



I would assert that bikes with a more popular provenance (eg., Raleigh, Schwinn and Peugeot) are the more likely to appreciate: Like the Les Paul (and the Fender Stratocaster-Telecaster), they were a pretty good value to begin with, and thus are much more likely to acquire an iconic reputation in the popular consciousness...

Recent trends such as "vintage" bike shows, Tweed rides, publication of topical /coffee table books, and even this forum provide additional evidence that it is already happening.

It's fun to speculate on which models could obtain this iconic status. I think the RRA is certainly one of them. I'd vote for the PX10 and any one of a plethora of Schwinn cruisers. Maybe the Raleigh Superbe?

Your thoughts.

treebound 

The speculative guessing game. If only I still had my 1962 Corvette or my 1967 Chevelle SS 396 4speed. Both were bought cheap and sold cheap in the '70's. If only ...

It seems like the Schwinn Suburbans and Collegiates have some off and on growing status, but the various configurations of the LeTours not so much.

I've had several Raleigh Records pass through my hands over the past few years, none were an Ace, and all were a bear to get sold for nearly what I had into them.

But much like Dutch Tulips, the best most of us can do is watch the market and hope we have on hand whatever is on the rise and hope we catch the incoming tide lest we get caught in the wave collapse and watch our hopes get washed out to sea in the trailing mucky foam.

Andrew F

Like Beanie Babies....right?

jet sanchEz

I've seen a lot of the hipsters riding around on old road bikes so maybe the fixie trend is fading? Whenever I am out on one of my road bikes I get a lot of compliments which never happened 5 years ago.

southpawboston

back when i was living in san diego, my landlord told me the story of how he had an original 1960s AC cobra, which he had bought new. no one knew it would become a collector's item. he sold it in the 70s for next to nothing. if he had held on to it, he could have financed his entire retirement.

20grit

You'll see the price continue to go up to a point where the bikes reach their maximum usable value (a very subjective thing, but we're talking in terms of transportation, recreational value) with the exception of 'collectible' bikes. Now which bikes are collectible ? The ones everyone here keeps talking about. The wealth of information on the internet is what drives up the prices of things nowadays. When I started playing guitar, old Gibson LG's were selling for up to $900. Now that's a starting price for decent condition LG's. Ebay has certainly helped to drive prices up.

But to end my rant/babbling, we could all agree now to start spreading the word that the Huffy Sante Fe is THE COLLECTIBLE BIKE and shortly you'd see them selling for some ridiculous price. It's all about which ones people talk about most.

jr59

If anyone of us knew this for sure;
They would NEVER have to worry about money again.

At best we are just guessing.

Barrettscv 

I'm a contrarian.

High value vintage bikes will be owned and traded for sentimental reasons primarily. There will always be a few hyper-wealthy collectors for items of distinction, and vintage bikes are no exception. So hyper-priced buying and selling will exist. Most of these buyers and sellers have nothing in common with you and me.

But the Dutch tulip bulb type of price escalation and trading mania is not really going to happen again for another 30 years. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

How much is a tulip bulb worth today?

My point is as follows: Buy a bike for practical reasons or buy a bike for personal satisfaction. But to buy a bike with the expectation of an investment return is probably a mistake.

Zaphod Beeblebrox 

Problem. I don't have a Huffy Santa Fe. Can we agree to go with the Skykomish Granite Point?

David Newton

Guessing. Yes, but isn't guessing fun? I'm maybe older than a few here, at 59, and I've seen a few cycles (ha!) of these things, such as guitars & exotic woods for guitars, silver & gold, etc. Isn't it great that bicycles are getting some attention?

What is fun, and not so much, is remembering what you used to own and maybe trashed, that is now valuable. I had a Raleigh International that I bought new, crashed and had the fork steer tube replaced, and then stolen. I would never have thrown that away, but I did give away or throw away several Sports. Not that Sports are highly valuable, but I now wished I hadn't, if not just for the B17's.

One thing I've seen is that things do cycle, they go down, then up, then down again. Those stratospheric Stratocaster prices have taken a significant tumble lately, Les Paul too. Brazilian Rosewood, a severely restricted wood, has gone up, up, up, and now going down somewhat. Granted the downward pressure is because of our recent economic inconvenience.

The point is that if you think you may hold onto your great vintage bicycle and cash in one day, don't be greedy and hold it too long, sell it when it is hot. You can be sure it is hot when skinny models in fashion magazines are shown with them, but skinny models get bored, and move on.

Doohickie

I don't think we're gonna see classic bikes spike up as high as classic guitars or AC Cobras. The thing is this: Those are truly iconic in very short supply. You can argue that there are certain bicycles that are in short supply (such as the RRA), but it is not iconic- no one outside the community has ever heard of them. By iconic, I mean singular. Something that makes it more desirable than comparable bikes. Part of that would be a place in pop culture.

AC Cobras and Les Paul are names known to me and I'm not particularly into classic cars or guitars. But I know those names. I can't think of a single bicycle model that has that same fame that is not in generous supply. Schwinn Paramount? Never really heard of it until I started poking around here a few years ago. Schwinn Varsity? Yeah, it's got that name recognition, but they are in far too plentiful supply to command collector's prices.

There will be the odd bike that goes for $5k or $10k, but that will be a roulette wheel chance of figuring out which singular example will get there. If anyone else has a RRA, I challenge you to put it up on ebay right now; I bet it won't go for half what the most recent one sold for.

On the other hand, that is the beauty of these bikes. You can get an a very good quality bike for not a lot of money. A lot of us here on C&V are tight with a buck. If suddenly prices went up, we would be priced out of our own market (kind of like when real estate becomes too expensive for the original residents of neighborhoods when they get gentrified). Then C&V would would populated by the butlers of rich jerks with French pencil mustaches. I don't think we want that, do we?

mkeller234

I just figure it will be trendy then eventually run it's course like the fixed fad.

sciencemonster

My theory is if you want to invest in collectables, a good rule of thumb is to look at the toys/cars a 40-45 year old would have had. As they approach 50, that's when things get big. It used to be Lionel trains and '57 Chevys. Then Star Wars toys and 60s cars. Now it's 70s bikes and - ugh - 70s cars. Just look back 35 years. Whatever was big in 1983 or so should be coming up. Pompadours? Crack? Little GI Joes? I dunno.

Michael Angelo 

I have an NOS 1979 Raleigh Super Grand Prix, I will be heart broken, but I'll let it go for $5,000................LOL

wrk101

+1 For most vintage bikes, I think the ceiling is somewhere below the price of a new LBS road bike. When you can find a nice, mid grade, vintage bike for around $250, whereas the entry level new LBS bike sells for $800 to $900, the value is there. OK, the new bike will have STI, better wheels, etc. But the gap is so large, its easy to go with the vintage bike. Many even relatively higher end vintage bikes are still selling for no more than a new entry level bike, usually less. Eventually, the gap will close somewhat, but not go away.

So I think vintage bikes still present a tremendous utilitarian value.

Many vintage bikes were made during the bike boom, so there are millions of them out there. So I think that will limit the collectible premium for many of the bikes from that era. But the high end rare stuff will draw collectors, who will pay premium pricing, like the OP above.

On the F/G market, I think we are seeing the impact of so many new FG bikes that you can find on sale at Nashbar, Bikes Direct, etc., for under $300. All of a sudden, paying $250 for a decent vintage bike, then buying a replacement wheelset, etc., isn't making much sense. So I think there is a cap on most FG bikes.

Kobe 

Maybe not quite a bike, but once all the kids born in the last 20 years start collecting, Razor Scooters will be the hot item. So start saving all of kids scooters now and make sure they keep them in pristine condition.

Doohickie

I've already seen Razor scooters coming up on my local CL for asking prices that surprised me (they want that? for a scooter?)

20grit

Doesn't have to be a Huffy Sante Fe. It could be the GrantSport Easy Tour 2. I just scrapped the only one of those I've ever seen. I could've cornered the market.

dashuaigeh

+1 to you makes +2. Agreed on the points - vintage bikes seem like they'll continue to be popular for three reasons - 1) style (straight top tube, thinner tubing, a less futuristic look), 2) utilitarianism (many have simple and bare-bones designs for everyday use, and being made of steel, are comfy and can take a hell of a beating), 3) price (CL pricing mostly - even with price inflation on C&V stuff, it's still cheap relative to bikes made after 2000).

The point on the F/G market is something I did find interesting though. The market definitely caught up to the fixed crowd, but it looks like the original fixed crowd has moved on to touring or rando type bikes. A friend noted that "everyone and their mom had a Surly LHT" in the Bay Area now. I feel like this is again a fad (a fully loaded touring bike is way overkill for most in-town needs) but I do think this is indicative of the trend of things. People tend to notice the good aspects of certain bike types (track = great in NY, touring = loadable, decently fast, fashionable), worship them for a few years, and usually move on (and then gradually grow into complete C&V enthusiasts ).

BigPolishJimmy

A lot of it seems to be value-driven around here. Students get their new 6-800.00 Trek stolen on campus and don't want to make the same mistake twice.

I have a Huffy Santa Fe, I could even bring it back if I can justify buying new chengshins for it. I could easily put 60.00 into it, sell it for 40.00 and then have the buyer mad at me because the frame broke a month later.

arimajol

i think another interesting dimension of the comparison to guitars is visibility. kids grew up seeing jimmy page playing that les paul and when they get the cash, that's what the identify with; that's what they want. same with hendrix and clapton and old strats. to some extent it is a status symbol, to have the same guitar that these famous guys played. amazing old bikes aren't in the mainstream consciousness. people didn't see them, and don't identify with them.

Doohickie

They weren't mainstream icons.

Dylansbob 

Little GI Joes and Transformers have already peaked. I parlayed a $15 flea market find into a $300+ profit, but I digress.

The next big thing is going to SWATCHes. Mark my words.

bibliobob

It's definitely faded, and has been replaced by interest in 1) touring bikes, 2) Utilitarian bikes, and 3) Vintage geared bikes. As a local mechanic remarked to a friend about 2 yrs. ago, "Geared is the new fixed."

I've sold 4 nice vintage bikes or frame-sets in the last couple weeks for fair prices. 3 of the 4 were nice young hipsters who most certainly were NOT into vintage bikes up until recently, and, if I had to guess, were lured into the field by interest in the whole ss/fg craze. The fact that I could sell those in November is amazing. It wasn't possible a few years ago. Ebay would've been my only option.

The future? A group of us stopped for lunch and a beer after a ride this week, and the same subject came up (though in the form of a "Campy vs. Suntour" debate). All in all, I think that prices and interest are going to continue to grow, as the entry-level enthusiasts are definitely getting more sophisticated. The guys that bought my bikes all had a decent level of knowledge, and weren't buying because they liked the colors of the bikes. 2 of them were obscure brands, and the sellers bought because they recognized the quality of the frames.

Let me take a SWAG (Sophisticated Wild Ass Guess) at some numbers. There's been a huge increase in the number of active cyclists in the past few years (we are definitely in the middle of a second "bike boom"). I'll just throw out a SWAG - 2 million nationwide (1 out every 150 people?). Even if 70% go back to letting their bikes rust in the garage when the boom is over, there would be an additional 600,000 people out there continuing to ride regularly? If 10% are bitten by the vintage bug, there would still be an additional 60,000 vintage enthusiasts out there?

I really don't think that I am out of line with my SWAG of 2 million. Every major urban area and every college campus has been overrun by bikes. Ten years ago, it wasn't cool to ride a bike to work, or around your college campus. It sure is now. Even 5 years ago, I used to get stares when I commuted to work, and there were few enough cyclists around that we would generally say hi to each other. Not anymore. Some parts of Chicago see a steady, year round stream of cycle commuters.

As knowledge grows, so will the market. Hang on to your derailleurs, boys and girls. Made in Taiwan fixies may be dropping in value, but quality vintage is sure to rise.

noglider 

I've taken in some Schwinn Varsitys and then thought, "What was I thinking?"

So should I be polishing them up and storing them for when the value spikes?