Would a self driving car world make it safe for cyclists?
02-15-18, 07:53 PM
#1551
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Anyone going to work is going to appreciate being chauffeured.
All those people who drive themselves to work are doing it wrong.
Carry on though, all of this dream talk is quite entertaining.
02-15-18, 08:00 PM
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You're not getting it. For extra income anyone could buy a small fleet of cars, trucks , whatever is demanded in a given area, and have them sprinkled around areas that are not very densely populated. Maybe they only get a few rides a day, but enough to pay the costs including the loan payments, plus a few extra bucks for your rainy day.
.
.
02-15-18, 08:35 PM
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02-15-18, 09:00 PM
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Wrong? It's not a moral question.
It's a path of least resistance issue.
Once getting a ride is sufficiently cheap and convenient, it will be preferred over driving. Of course different people will have different thresholds. But as more use the services, the prices will drop and the convenience will increase as the services get tweaked and improved which will bring in more and more people to use them.
Consider Phoenix. The initial area will be relatively small, and so will the fleet. But as they grow the fleet, they will grow the area covered. That's how it will grow. Incrementally, encompassing more and more people.
It can snowball from 0 to 90% usage in a matter of months or even weeks in a given area.
02-15-18, 09:09 PM
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Just where do you get your inside information Kool-Aid from?
02-15-18, 09:44 PM
#1556
C*pt*i* Obvious
The amount of shillage and zealotry from some users here, combined with the lack of facts or real world anecdotes in this thread, gives new meaning to the term Kool-Aid.
02-15-18, 10:28 PM
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I'm out of that but I have plenty of sucralose left.
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02-15-18, 10:33 PM
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Self-driving cars won't object to your choice of music and change the station I hope.
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02-16-18, 07:20 AM
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Bit of a reality check... from "behind the curtain..."
https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/13/1...car-confidence
Outwardly, these companies talk relentlessly about the life-saving potential of self-driving cars, but behind closed doors, they are plotting ways to outmaneuver their rivals — often at the expense of an unsuspecting public. It’s telling that we learned more about the behind-the-scenes machinations to build self-driving cars from the Waymo-Uber trial than we did from any publicly disclosed safety report.
02-16-18, 07:37 AM
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I once had a grad student tell me that he could make drones with perfect software, no possible issues. Then one day, I came into the lab and there was a robot-shaped hole in the wall. These vehicles are going to be shipped with major flaws in the software that will only show up after many miles. After the first facebook live video of someone screaming driving over a cliff comes out, we will not have to worry about them any more. The fact that they are being allowed on the road at all right now is ridiculous.
02-16-18, 10:33 AM
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I once had a grad student tell me that he could make drones with perfect software, no possible issues. Then one day, I came into the lab and there was a robot-shaped hole in the wall. These vehicles are going to be shipped with major flaws in the software that will only show up after many miles. After the first facebook live video of someone screaming driving over a cliff comes out, we will not have to worry about them any more. The fact that they are being allowed on the road at all right now is ridiculous.
BTW, all BMW owners were recalled after this incident due to major flaws in greyware:
Same objections were raised for fly-by-wire, and yet not only do certified sytems have an excellent safety record, drive-by-wire is deployed on millions of consumer vehicles driving trillions of miles. Throttle cables have been replaced, and many cars have EPS sytems capable of winning the fight over most owners for control of their vehicles.
(And Audi/Toyota myths in three, two, one....)
-mr. bill
Last edited by mr_bill; 02-16-18 at 12:38 PM.
02-16-18, 10:36 AM
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I fully expect there to be some highly publicized crashes involving AVs. But when contrasted with the ongoing loss of 30000 lives/yr just in the US these won't be sufficient to stop development of ever more capable sensors and software.
02-16-18, 10:53 AM
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Beyond that the rental car business model includes buying cars at low rates and reselling them to recoup a major portion of operational cost.
This would not apply to your Unicorn model of AV fleets at beck and call.
Companies that run A/V fleets would have to determine, life cycle of vehicles, technology cycle and have a functional, technological and cosmetic maintenance cycle to maintain the vehicles.
another big unknown....and question of speed of adoption and use of AV cars.
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02-16-18, 11:40 AM
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02-16-18, 11:54 AM
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I once had a grad student tell me that he could make drones with perfect software, no possible issues. Then one day, I came into the lab and there was a robot-shaped hole in the wall. These vehicles are going to be shipped with major flaws in the software that will only show up after many miles. After the first facebook live video of someone screaming driving over a cliff comes out, we will not have to worry about them any more. The fact that they are being allowed on the road at all right now is ridiculous.
Yup, just like the military lost all interest after the crash of the Wright Flyer resulted in the death of the Army Lt. who was a passenger evaluating the craft. Clearly heavier-than-air flight was a pipe dream without any practical applications.
I fully expect there to be some highly publicized crashes involving AVs. But when contrasted with the ongoing loss of 30000 lives/yr just in the US these won't be sufficient to stop development of ever more capable sensors and software.
I fully expect there to be some highly publicized crashes involving AVs. But when contrasted with the ongoing loss of 30000 lives/yr just in the US these won't be sufficient to stop development of ever more capable sensors and software.
I am baffled by the view that believes it is "ridiculous" to allow autonomous vehicles on the road at all right now, after Google has had them on the road for years over millions of miles with zero significant issues. And they're only getting better and better.
Even Teslas with their crappy Level 2 driver assist systems is doing much better than human-driver-only cars.
Do you not recognize the foolhardy Luddite attitudes within yourselves?
02-16-18, 12:22 PM
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when was that last time you rented a car? I just paid 44 a day, plus tax..... for a cheapo Hyndai..... i am sure you can find deals for 30 but that is not the going or average rate.
Beyond that the rental car business model includes buying cars at low rates and reselling them to recoup a major portion of operational cost.
This would not apply to your Unicorn model of AV fleets at beck and call.
Companies that run A/V fleets would have to determine, life cycle of vehicles, technology cycle and have a functional, technological and cosmetic maintenance cycle to maintain the vehicles.
another big unknown....and question of speed of adoption and use of AV cars.
Beyond that the rental car business model includes buying cars at low rates and reselling them to recoup a major portion of operational cost.
This would not apply to your Unicorn model of AV fleets at beck and call.
Companies that run A/V fleets would have to determine, life cycle of vehicles, technology cycle and have a functional, technological and cosmetic maintenance cycle to maintain the vehicles.
another big unknown....and question of speed of adoption and use of AV cars.
The market will determine the appropriate number of cars in a given area for the demand that is there. My only point is that if an area can support rental cars and Ubers with human-driven drivers today, there is a much larger potential market for self-driven hailed cars.
That should be obvious.
02-16-18, 12:48 PM
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when was that last time you rented a car? I just paid 44 a day, plus tax..... for a cheapo Hyndai..... i am sure you can find deals for 30 but that is not the going or average rate.
Beyond that the rental car business model includes buying cars at low rates and reselling them to recoup a major portion of operational cost.
This would not apply to your Unicorn model of AV fleets at beck and call.
Companies that run A/V fleets would have to determine, life cycle of vehicles, technology cycle and have a functional, technological and cosmetic maintenance cycle to maintain the vehicles.
another big unknown....and question of speed of adoption and use of AV cars.
Beyond that the rental car business model includes buying cars at low rates and reselling them to recoup a major portion of operational cost.
This would not apply to your Unicorn model of AV fleets at beck and call.
Companies that run A/V fleets would have to determine, life cycle of vehicles, technology cycle and have a functional, technological and cosmetic maintenance cycle to maintain the vehicles.
another big unknown....and question of speed of adoption and use of AV cars.
Whether it's $30 or $60/day it really doesn't matter.
The market will determine the appropriate number of cars in a given area for the demand that is there. My only point is that if an area can support rental cars and Ubers with human-driven drivers today, there is a much larger potential market for self-driven hailed cars.
That should be obvious.
The market will determine the appropriate number of cars in a given area for the demand that is there. My only point is that if an area can support rental cars and Ubers with human-driven drivers today, there is a much larger potential market for self-driven hailed cars.
That should be obvious.
it is not an equal cost comparison to state rental cars cost 30 dollars a days, therefore AV fleet cars that generate 30 dollars a day of rides are economically feasible.
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02-16-18, 01:02 PM
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It is a big unknown if Uber and its ilk can or will ever be "supported" (IOW run a profitable operation) by anything but investors willing to lose money indefinitely.
02-16-18, 03:34 PM
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Remember, we're talking about economic viability of AV hailed ride services in low density areas.
Say an AV costs $50k. Amortized over 5 years at 5% that's $1000/mo. Or $33/day. Plus fuel (low for electric), maintenance (comparable to rental cars and taxis) and maybe storage (which would be minimal in the low density areas we're talking about).
Totally viable.
02-16-18, 03:41 PM
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What area "supports" Uber given that it is losing Billions of Dollars every year, year after year? This hard economic reality and the insufficient driver income (thus the astoundingly high turnover in drivers) makes it obvious that Uber, with its business model of low fares regardless of expenses, is "supporting" its customers with the low fare subsidies and low driver reimbursement.
It is a big unknown if Uber and its ilk can or will ever be "supported" (IOW run a profitable operation) by anything but investors willing to lose money indefinitely.
It is a big unknown if Uber and its ilk can or will ever be "supported" (IOW run a profitable operation) by anything but investors willing to lose money indefinitely.
02-16-18, 04:50 PM
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Well while AVs remove the human driver, they add the cost of owning the vehicle... to the tune of 10s of thousands per vehicle... that isn’t chicken feed.
02-16-18, 05:21 PM
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Now, you can argue that the an AV cost will be more than say the typical Uber X Prius, but the cost of a typical Uber XL or Uber Black vehicle is probably comparable.
And by the time they're mass producing these things all identically the cost is likely to drop substantially.
02-16-18, 05:27 PM
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One of the big issues in transportation as a service is the depreciation of the vehicle - if they depreciate anywhere close to the rate computers do, that would really impact the business model of AV taxis.
[Computers (and phones, etc.) don't depreciate because their capabilities decrease, they depreciate because technology constantly drives the cost/capability down. This is great for the computer business and I'd think car manufacturers would love to replicate that rapid obsolescence.]
[Computers (and phones, etc.) don't depreciate because their capabilities decrease, they depreciate because technology constantly drives the cost/capability down. This is great for the computer business and I'd think car manufacturers would love to replicate that rapid obsolescence.]
02-16-18, 05:33 PM
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Unbelievable. Waymo has already been approved to compete with Uber in Arizona. Uber is so screwed. Phoenix cyclists are so lucky!
And those of you with little faith in the technological and economic viability of AVs are even more wrong than I thought.
https://qz.com/1208897/alphabets-way...ete-with-uber/
Incremental roll out. Starting in Phoenix. If you haven't bought GOOGL yet...
And those of you with little faith in the technological and economic viability of AVs are even more wrong than I thought.
The self-driving carmaker spun out of Google was approved on Jan. 24 to operate as a transportation network company (TNC) in Arizona, the state department of transportation told Quartz. Waymo applied for the permit on Jan. 12. Its application, which was reviewed by Quartz, contained images of the autonomous Chrysler Pacifica minivans the company is testing in five US states.
The application realizes a long-held fear of Uber’s: that Waymo intends not just to build driverless cars, but to operate its own ride-hailing business. Waymo has been testing a self-driving car service in the Phoenix area since last April that lets passengers hail cars through an app, similar to Uber. TNC status would allow it to charge for these rides, which are currently free.
...
Waymo confirmed to Quartz that the TNC permit moves it a step closer to the commercial, on-demand ride service it plans to launch in Phoenix this year. “As we continue to test drive our fleet of vehicles in greater Phoenix, we’re taking all the steps necessary to launch our commercial service this year,” a Waymo spokesman said in an emailed statement. The company said it hasn’t announced rates yet for those rides. Waymo plans to operate commercially in other cities in the future, but declined to provide specifics.
Alphabet chief financial officer Ruth Porat said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Feb. 1 that Waymo was excited about its progress in Phoenix, and working toward a public ride-hailing program. “Riders will be able to use a Waymo app to hail one of our fully driving, self-driving cars without a driver at the wheel,” she said.
Uber declined to comment.
The application realizes a long-held fear of Uber’s: that Waymo intends not just to build driverless cars, but to operate its own ride-hailing business. Waymo has been testing a self-driving car service in the Phoenix area since last April that lets passengers hail cars through an app, similar to Uber. TNC status would allow it to charge for these rides, which are currently free.
...
Waymo confirmed to Quartz that the TNC permit moves it a step closer to the commercial, on-demand ride service it plans to launch in Phoenix this year. “As we continue to test drive our fleet of vehicles in greater Phoenix, we’re taking all the steps necessary to launch our commercial service this year,” a Waymo spokesman said in an emailed statement. The company said it hasn’t announced rates yet for those rides. Waymo plans to operate commercially in other cities in the future, but declined to provide specifics.
Alphabet chief financial officer Ruth Porat said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Feb. 1 that Waymo was excited about its progress in Phoenix, and working toward a public ride-hailing program. “Riders will be able to use a Waymo app to hail one of our fully driving, self-driving cars without a driver at the wheel,” she said.
Uber declined to comment.
https://qz.com/1208897/alphabets-way...ete-with-uber/
Incremental roll out. Starting in Phoenix. If you haven't bought GOOGL yet...