chewybrian 

This was pointing right at me several times along the way; much too close for comfort right now...



But it looks like @Deal4Fuji is the target now:



Hope you are ready!

The Bahamas did take the worst of it already, and it will surely come out in the next few days how bad it really was there.

Deal4Fuji

Thanks Brian, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. I'm glad to see it weaken some. I really feel for the people of the Bahamas, it just sat right on them and didn't move for the longest time.

This time last year pics from Florence - we sure don't want to see this again, and my area (Kinston) didn't get the wind that @3speedslow (Jacksonville) & @machinist42 (Wilmington) got from Florence.

machinist42

9 pm:

Took in the sunset. It was spectacular. Dorian's northernmost fringe is finally overhead. The animals are increasingly anxious.


All the spaghetti model's strings converge on Wilmington, so I suspect I'll be riding in the eye of Dorian too. Flo's eye sat on me for two and a half hours last year, plenty of time to bike about. Hopefully Dorian will be a more polite houseguest and have the courtesy to leave promptly. I lived on Trail's End when Flo visited, about 500 feet from the ICW, according to the sign outside my bedroom window. We had sustained winds of 105 mph for maybe six hours, with peak gusts to 135. NOAA/NWS set up a station at the park at the end of the road, and shared their data. After an hour of the unnerving, entirely unnatural howling, it becomes numbing, even soothing. I fell asleep, only occasionally stirred by a pine cone slamming into the side of the house like a sledgehammer. My cats would start too, and we'd look at each and slow blink and go back to sleep, because there was really nothing else to do. We sheltered in a "safe cage" I built of bike frames in my bedroom. When the eye passed over, all the neighbors came out to walk their dogs. The eyewall was at the end of the street. It was tempting to ride right up and touch it, but I knew that'd be wrong. The trailing eyewall took its own sweet time in arriving.

I watched a couple minutes of The Weather Channel last night at a friend's house. I helped her prep, and then took a swim and hot tub. It's always a good idea to take a hot tub before a hurricane. The talking heads were saying they couldn't imagine what it would be like to have a hurricane pound on you for so long. My friend and I in unison said "I can". The Bahamas were slammed twice as hard for three times as long, so there's that. I surely would flee such an event, knowing what I know. They did not have that option. I feel for them. I'll be donating to relief efforts for them. From what I've read 61,000 of the 70,000 are going to be needing food tomorrow. (I'll be fine. I'm making finger potatoes with roasted Hatch chilies and roasted garlic as one dish. I like to prep food before a hurricane, as after it can be problematic.) I lost my floor. They lost their homes. (Okay, technically I lost mine too, but not like they did.) Many lost absolutely everything. (I lost only a little.)





It is entirely possible, if not probable, that Dorian will intensify and expand on its way here. It lost energy while over land. It will be riding the Gulf Stream here with all its deep heat energy to fuel the thermal engine which is Dorian.




Last year I resolved to evacuate rather than go through another like that. It was not my first, but definitely the most tedious. Yet here I am, and here I'll ride it out. Dorian's not supposed to park on us, so it'll only be a one day affair? It's been dry for a awhile, so the trees should hold. Flo was the first major storm event in 17 or 18 years here, so took out all the low hanging weak fruit. I can be of use in the aftermath, if it's like last year.


I always wear a helmet in hurricanes.


Best of luck to all in Dorian's path!


We shall see.

jeff


post script: NWS's 11 pm track update has Dorian staying clear of the SE coast!


Until Dorian gets to Wilmington, where he will come ashore for Britts, and finding them closed for the season, he'll get rather pissy.https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/034859.shtml?cone#contents

genec

I ran off to western Georgia in my little RV to avoid this monster. Melbourne was scheduled for a direct hit. Funny thing, the locals all told me "we'll get some wind and heavy rain, but that's all." Apparently the Space Coast area has some "magic force field." Althought it seems they were hit about 2 years ago.

Heck, even NASA put their toys into the garage for this one.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox...ace-center.amp

Deal4Fuji

If Dorian starts to mess with the world's best donuts, I'll support Trump's nuclear option !

bigbenaugust 

Shoot, now I want Britt's Donuts, but
a) 2.5 hours away
b) hurricane.


Just says "Heavy Rain and Breezy" for tomorrow here.

machinist42

c) Britts closed Monday at 5 pm. A friend of mine arrived at 5:02. She was sad.

I reminded her Britts is open this year until September 15th. She was happy. Google points out they are closed now, but open tomorrow at 4 pm!

"Britts Donuts

chewybrian 

The new target is Cape Fear (seriously...)

Deal4Fuji

De Niro at his scariest

chewybrian 

I live near Melbourne, and it is less vulnerable than most places on the east coast. It has something to do with the jet stream, but they built Cape Canaveral here because it usually avoids the worst of it. The one that did hit us directly was Jeanne, though she tried very hard to turn away...



If you ever think you are safe before the hurricane has passed, just remember that track, which was only one of the spaghetti models, while all the others had it turning away to the north.

bikecrate

I haven't seen any up to date reports, but I think FL dodged a bullet this time. Could have been a lot worse especially if it held to the original track and hit the lower part of east FL. Apparently Alabama is out of danger now too.

3speedslow

The family has opted to stay with me here in Jacksonville, NC. That means no in house bike show and wrenching this time.

counting on this storm to be a very wet blanket. Still remember the absolute monsters which tried to rip us apart when we lived overseas on Okinawa.

genec

Heading back now... was in GA, came through Tallahassee.

Me, relative to Dorian.

All day as I came south, I could see high thin spiral clouds and fast moving puffy clouds, to the east.

The road I took doesn't show in this pic. I went through Tallahassee, Perry and Cross City. Blue skies where I am now. ��





Ever go to Hell n Blazes?

genec

No way man... 'Bama is gonna get a piece of it. I suspect severe Atlantic flooding.

RubeRad

It's hard for me to believe that the best donut shop in 'merica is not Diablo Donuts of Baltimore. I would love to be proven wrong. Fedex me some donuts.

Y'all stay safe!

2cam16

I see what your priorities are there,Law.

3speedslow

@2cam16

What! I was a multifaceted guy that weekend. I had craft beer, gourmet meals and classical music on the box!

machinist42

Hah! I take the pedals off mine too, and stuff them in the bottle cages so I can walk through this place without barking my shins.

Dorian's now a Cat 3. You may not have to remember Okinawa if Dorian goes through an eyewall replacement cycle right before landfall. This could get ugly.

Dorian's target has always been here, even when they were forecasting it crossing Florida. The positioning of the highs all summer has made us the pocket in the bowling alley, prime for a strike. (It's really more like a gutterball, but I couldn't resist. I went bowling with company a few weeks ago, for the first time in maybe fifty years? I managed two strikes, and one empty frame.)

Hopefully I'm wrong!

Gourmet meals are absolutely essential to enduring a hurricane. Last year it was sourdough, nduja, avocado, chevre, fresh herbs and local tomato and variations thereof. I got that, but I have homemade oisobagi and fingerling potatoes with fresh dill too. I thought to stock up on ice cream as well. I was light on deserts last year. Wrench on the Ghibli, and read "Crazy Beach: Disc One".

What's on your menu?

bigbenaugust 

Breezy ride in this morning, but we're off to the west of the action. Stay dry, y'all.

RubeRad

I count 4 road bikes with missing bar tape (plus the blue one has no tires). I think that's a sign you have an N+1 problem

3speedslow

Big long post typed only to time out and loose it, sucks!

machinist42

Today's Hurricane is brought to you by the letter "D" and the number "9"!

Deal4Fuji

....all hunkered down and waiting on Dorian. Lots of tornado warnings all over the area coming & going. A RV park at Emerald Isle had some damage from one of them this morning

bigbenaugust 

It's been raining here since I got back from a short lunch ride. Still debating riding v. bus home.

no motor?

This reminds me of the picture of the woman in the Bahamas with the 97 dogs in her house. I wonder how they got an accurate count, who'd be able to get that many dogs to stay still in a small enclosure like that?