Duke of Kent

I'd argue that if you're not making a serious gain in your first real year of training, either you're completely maxed out relative to your physiological potential, or there is something very wrong with your training plan.

I'm not going to quote numbers or percentages, but I'd be willing to bet that most people at the 4/5 level who pay for coaching and follow a training plan make significant gains.

And, the "next year" thing seems like something a coach of a GT contender would tell his athlete when drastically changing his training/diet. Not a 4/5 racer. You SHOULD be making significant improvement in your first or second year.