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Bike shortages are about to get very real

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Bike shortages are about to get very real

Old 05-19-20, 10:01 AM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
It's not just a bike shortage.....

the ports were sitting very empty back in Febuary/March anyone paying attention. You guys are just seeing the bike shortage because It directly effects you (your hobby/passion). Tariffs have nothing to do with a shortage. Tariffs only raised the cost of said bikes.
From the article:
=inheritBut the demand could not have come at a worse time.Most American importers have kept limited inventory since 2018, when President Trump ordered new tariffs on goods produced in China, where some parts used on nearly all bikes sold in the United States are made.

As a result, in 2019 the number of bikes imported into the United States dropped by around 25 percent compared with 2018, according to Mr. Margevicius. In the first quarter of this year, imports were down by around 30 percent compared to the same period in 2019.
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Old 05-19-20, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by walnutz View Post
From the article:
=inheritBut the demand could not have come at a worse time.Most American importers have kept limited inventory since 2018, when President Trump ordered new tariffs on goods produced in China, where some parts used on nearly all bikes sold in the United States are made.

As a result, in 2019 the number of bikes imported into the United States dropped by around 25 percent compared with 2018, according to Mr. Margevicius. In the first quarter of this year, imports were down by around 30 percent compared to the same period in 2019.
I am willing to pay more for imports if it means more jobs for Americans! Except wheels, I can buy 3 sets of Light bicycle wheels for the same price as a set of zipps.

I'd also glady pay the tariff on many bicycles than to Over pay Salsa for bicycle of the same quality as a China made bicycle.
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Old 05-19-20, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
It's not just a bike shortage.....

the ports were sitting very empty back in Febuary/March anyone paying attention. You guys are just seeing the bike shortage because It directly effects you (your hobby/passion). Tariffs have nothing to do with a shortage. Tariffs only raised the cost of said bikes.
Actually they do. When tariffs were expected to hit 25% two things happened (1) manufacturers hurried to produce what they could ship before the tarriffs hit then slowed production appreciably after in anticipation of a slump in orders; and (2) bike shops shifted ordering to buy fewer bikes at higher cost. Both have led to shortages of many bike models in the US market.
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Old 05-19-20, 07:18 PM
  #29  
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but... apparently... the consummers don't mind paying the tariffs, and are buying bikes.

So the question is "Who" made an issue over the Tariffs? The same "Who" that are making an issue of it here and now.
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Old 05-19-20, 08:19 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
but... apparently... the consummers don't mind paying the tariffs, and are buying bikes.

So the question is "Who" made an issue over the Tariffs? The same "Who" that are making an issue of it here and now.
You claimed tarrifs have nothing to do with the current shortage. 2 posters have now provided information to refute your claim. One cited an article and the other owns a bike shop so thats kinda sorta direct knowledge.

Whether consumers will pay the terrific or not has nothing to with if your comment was wrong, which it was. The tarrifs contributed to the current shortage because once in effect, production was reduced and imports were reduced.

Again, whether or not consumers will pay the increased price has no bearing on the accuracy of their comments.

Also, consumers having to pay more money due to the government hiking up taxes on the product(which is what this is) is mind-boggling.
With tarrifs, consumers are financially penalized in the end. Thats unfortunate.
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Old 05-19-20, 08:41 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
You claimed tarrifs have nothing to do with the current shortage. 2 posters have now provided information to refute your claim. One cited an article and the other owns a bike shop so thats kinda sorta direct knowledge.

Whether consumers will pay the terrific or not has nothing to with if your comment was wrong, which it was. The tarrifs contributed to the current shortage because once in effect, production was reduced and imports were reduced.

Again, whether or not consumers will pay the increased price has no bearing on the accuracy of their comments.

Also, consumers having to pay more money due to the government hiking up taxes on the product(which is what this is) is mind-boggling.
With tarrifs, consumers are financially penalized in the end. Thats unfortunate.
America first, if you don't have jobs you don't have money to spend.
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Old 05-19-20, 08:57 PM
  #32  
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for all the crying over tariffs , maybe this should be a kayak or canoe forum.
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Old 05-19-20, 09:21 PM
  #33  
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Of course tarrifs were in play to cause this shortage

As said before, bike sales were poor before this all went down, so if a product that you are having trouble selling is all of a sudden more expensive do you predict more sales or less? If you predict less sales because of higher costs then you carry less inventory.....BOOM shortage!

It's not the only factor, but it's certainly playing a part
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Old 05-19-20, 09:47 PM
  #34  
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current events are infused with multiple economical/political/sociological aspects. it is impossible to accurately segregate the three currently given the circumstances...
especially regarding complete new bicycles < $1,200.

regardless...it's a good time to support classic and vintage.

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Old 05-19-20, 10:31 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
America first, if you don't have jobs you don't have money to spend.
Another response that doesn't address the reason I or the others responded to you.

The correct response to the other posters was 'Oh, thats interesting. Thanks for the information, looks like I was wrong'.
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Old 05-19-20, 10:47 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post

The correct response to the other posters was 'Oh, thats interesting. Thanks for the information, looks like I was wrong'.
My correct response was Exactly what I typed. your Correct response if you don't like my response..... is to ignore my response.

Again Americans need jobs, to earn money, to spend money. Maybe Americans can Expat and work in overseas Manufacturing plants for jobs?
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Old 05-20-20, 06:18 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
America first, if you don't have jobs you don't have money to spend.
So, you are supporting tariffs because they increase employment here in the US? The problem with that reasoning is that the tariffs are actually reducing employment in the US. Here's the takeaway from the linked article, with the relevant passage in bold font:

"According to the Tax Foundation model, the tariffs imposed so far by the Trump administration would reduce long-run GDP by 0.23 percent ($58.02 billion) and wages by 0.15 percent and eliminate 179,800 full-time equivalent jobs."

The above estimate does not include the job losses that are resulting from other countries' retaliatory tariffs, but those estimates are in the linked article. Retaliatory tariffs are a very predictable response from other countries, so those additional job losses (and reductions in GDP) were foreseeable, too.

None of this is at all surprising, as the theoretical explanation has been well-understood for almost 200 years - and we've had plenty of empirical evidence to support these conclusions.
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Old 05-20-20, 10:13 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
My correct response was Exactly what I typed. your Correct response if you don't like my response..... is to ignore my response.

Again Americans need jobs, to earn money, to spend money. Maybe Americans can Expat and work in overseas Manufacturing plants for jobs?
Lol so how are all those new manufacturing plants in the USA coming along? A second industrial revolution! Bigly
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Old 05-26-20, 08:58 PM
  #39  
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After all is said and done, I see NO bicycle manufacturing reshoring to the US in light of the recent tariffs. Not even a hint of it. That is a fact. Cannondale & Trek are not talking about coming back. Giant and Shimano are not scoping out vacant manufacturing space in Detroit, The niche component manufacturers and bike builders that were here before largely still are here; nothing has changed except the whole retail side of the inductry has been turned upside down and prices have largely gone up. Nothing is settling back in a better place than before the tariffs. That is a fact too.

Tell me, what in the bike industry is better now, what new American jobs have been created and who is better off than before? Facts please...

I am for creation of more good paying American jobs, but the reckless, poorly conceived flailing our government has just put all of us through has had no short term or long term positive impact on our industry and has created no new cycling-related jobs for us.
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Old 05-27-20, 01:36 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by dwmckee View Post
After all is said and done, I see NO bicycle manufacturing reshoring to the US in light of the recent tariffs. Not even a hint of it. That is a fact. Cannondale & Trek are not talking about coming back. Giant and Shimano are not scoping out vacant manufacturing space in Detroit, The niche component manufacturers and bike builders that were here before largely still are here; nothing has changed except the whole retail side of the inductry has been turned upside down and prices have largely gone up. Nothing is settling back in a better place than before the tariffs. That is a fact too.

Tell me, what in the bike industry is better now, what new American jobs have been created and who is better off than before? Facts please...

I am for creation of more good paying American jobs, but the reckless, poorly conceived flailing our government has just put all of us through has had no short term or long term positive impact on our industry and has created no new cycling-related jobs for us.
Exactly. What will happen and did is that import amounts were reduced while prices still going up. Plus the pandemic has actually helped the manufacturers because all that stock they would normally have to sell at a discount at the end of the year is now gone and sold at full price.
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Old 05-27-20, 01:46 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by dwmckee View Post
After all is said and done, I see NO bicycle manufacturing reshoring to the US in light of the recent tariffs. Not even a hint of it. That is a fact. Cannondale & Trek are not talking about coming back. Giant and Shimano are not scoping out vacant manufacturing space in Detroit, The niche component manufacturers and bike builders that were here before largely still are here; nothing has changed except the whole retail side of the inductry has been turned upside down and prices have largely gone up. Nothing is settling back in a better place than before the tariffs. That is a fact too.

Tell me, what in the bike industry is better now, what new American jobs have been created and who is better off than before? Facts please...

I am for creation of more good paying American jobs, but the reckless, poorly conceived flailing our government has just put all of us through has had no short term or long term positive impact on our industry and has created no new cycling-related jobs for us.
Don, this is all exactly correct. The manufacturing that is leaving China is mainly relocating in other countries (mostly Southeast Asia) that are not subject to such large tariffs; they are not relocating to the US.

But I can't emphasize this strongly enough: for a variety of reasons, the tariffs are actually reducing employment in the US. One simple mechanism, which demonstrates the "flailing" you referred to, is up near me in NW Pennsylvania: a steel mill that was still in operation (though below historic capacity) had to lay off 100 employees, because Trump's tariffs applied to imported steel - and this mill was importing slabs of steel from Ukraine and hot rolling it right here in PA. They were paying $2 million per week in tariffs, but couldn't afford it, and hence the layoffs. And no, there is not a domestic source for the steel they need. So, that's a hundred jobs lost in an area that desperately needs them.

I would love to read Metieval 's response.
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Old 05-28-20, 02:02 AM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Koyote View Post
Don, this is all exactly correct. The manufacturing that is leaving China is mainly relocating in other countries (mostly Southeast Asia) that are not subject to such large tariffs; they are not relocating to the US.

But I can't emphasize this strongly enough: for a variety of reasons, the tariffs are actually reducing employment in the US. One simple mechanism, which demonstrates the "flailing" you referred to, is up near me in NW Pennsylvania: a steel mill that was still in operation (though below historic capacity) had to lay off 100 employees, because Trump's tariffs applied to imported steel - and this mill was importing slabs of steel from Ukraine and hot rolling it right here in PA. They were paying $2 million per week in tariffs, but couldn't afford it, and hence the layoffs. And no, there is not a domestic source for the steel they need. So, that's a hundred jobs lost in an area that desperately needs them.

I would love to read Metieval 's response.
On bike shortages?

On tariffs (POLITICAL talk) on a Bike forum?

OR about STEEL MILLS, on a bike Forum (STILL political and off topic)?

Go Troll elsewhere!
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Old 05-28-20, 06:12 AM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
On bike shortages?

On tariffs (POLITICAL talk) on a Bike forum?

OR about STEEL MILLS, on a bike Forum (STILL political and off topic)?

Go Troll elsewhere!
You seemed willing to discuss tariffs...until you were confronted with facts. But whatever.
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Old 05-28-20, 07:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
On bike shortages?

On tariffs (POLITICAL talk) on a Bike forum?

OR about STEEL MILLS, on a bike Forum (STILL political and off topic)?

Go Troll elsewhere!
In this thread, you have commented on the bike shortage, on tariffs(multiple times), and you have referenced political leaning/ideology for yourself and others in the thread.
You have already done all the things you now suddenly refuse to do.

Anyways, I decided to respond since I read thru the thread again and got a chuckle from seeing that you have your convictions, except when it comes to less expensive wheels. I laughed, that was pretty funny.
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Old 05-28-20, 10:19 AM
  #45  
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Yep, I am glad that I have a job in the USA and can afford to pay 20% more for a bicycle with parts from China.

Albeit, frames from Taiwan are higher quality, and I love my Japaneses components.

As for this current Bicycle Shortage goes.... Most of those entry level bikes will be back on the market in a year unused at half the cost people bought them for.
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Old 05-28-20, 10:37 AM
  #46  
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Been putting off getting my teenage son a new MTB for a few years because he just wasn't riding. He'd outgrown his old one quite some time ago. Suddenly, since the pandemic and stay-at-home schooling, he's riding my singlespeed cross bike all the time, and riding with me again (amazing--I thought those days were over!). He just wanted a new entry-level hardtail and there was NOTHING in stock locally but just last week we lucked out and found a 2020 Jamis 29'r that's his size - literally one of the only bikes in stock. Works for me - Jamis is a great brand.
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Old 05-28-20, 10:47 AM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by pbass View Post
Been putting off getting my teenage son a new MTB for a few years because he just wasn't riding. He'd outgrown his old one quite some time ago. Suddenly, since the pandemic and stay-at-home schooling, he's riding my singlespeed cross bike all the time, and riding with me again (amazing--I thought those days were over!). He just wanted a new entry-level hardtail and there was NOTHING in stock locally but just last week we lucked out and found a 2020 Jamis 29'r that's his size - literally one of the only bikes in stock. Works for me - Jamis is a great brand.
I am seeing a surge of used bike popping up on facebook markets. People are seeing the shortage and taking advantage of it to get rid of the bike that's been in their possession that they don't ride.
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Old 05-28-20, 11:03 AM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
I am willing to pay more for imports if it means more jobs for Americans!
If you are willing to pay more for imports, how does that mean "more jobs for Americans"? You'd still be buying imports, but would be paying a tax to the US federal gov't.

Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
but... apparently... the consummers don't mind paying the tariffs, and are buying bikes.
Okay, so you state that consumers "don't mind paying the tariffs." Tariffs only apply to imported goods. So, again: how does this create "more jobs for Americans"?

Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
America first, if you don't have jobs you don't have money to spend.
Umm, okay, but you've argued that the tariffs are not dissuading you and other consumers from buying imported goods. Imported goods don't create jobs for Americans.

Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
Yep, I am glad that I have a job in the USA and can afford to pay 20% more for a bicycle with parts from China. Albeit, frames from Taiwan are higher quality, and I love my Japaneses components.
You realize that China, Taiwan, and Japan are all foreign countries, and those goods you are buying are, ahem, not produced by US workers?

And if you really cared about creating jobs in the US, you would buy Zipp wheels (which are made in Indiana) instead of Light bicycle rims (which are made in China.) But you told us that you wouldn't do that.

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Old 05-28-20, 11:07 AM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Metieval View Post
I am seeing a surge of used bike popping up on facebook markets. People are seeing the shortage and taking advantage of it to get rid of the bike that's been in their possession that they don't ride.
Yeah, I would normally start off looking used but this one was a b-day gift and I knew he really wanted new. His interest in riding has sparked again as I say, but in a year he'll be driving so we'll see
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Old 05-28-20, 11:11 AM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by Koyote View Post
If you are willing to pay more for imports, how does that mean "more jobs for Americans"? You'd still be buying imports, but would be paying a tax to the US federal gov't.



Okay, so you state that consumers "don't mind paying the tariffs." Tariffs only apply to imported goods. So, again: how does this create "more jobs for Americans"?



Umm, okay, but you've argued that the tariffs are not dissuading you and other consumers from buying imported goods. Imported goods don't create jobs for Americans.



You realize that China, Taiwan, and Japan are all foreign countries, and those goods you are buying are, ahem, not produced by US workers?

And if you really cared about creating jobs in the US, you would buy Zipps wheels (which are made in Indiana) instead of Light bicycle rims (which are made in China.) But you told us that you wouldn't do that.
Let me know when I can buy something better than a Detroit made bicycle frame that's made in the USA.

In the meantime there is a MULTITUDE of USA made (non bicycle) products that are far better than Imported goods. Which if brought up would get reported as offtopic.

Bicycles are only a very small percentage of the entire picture. To Use the Bicycle market as an argument to cover the entire Topic is insanity. Thus the topic can't truly be discussed and remain in a bicycle forum.
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