Roody

That's a very interesting point of view. You're looking at dystopia, while most people so far have been thinking along utopian lines. You're also looking at falling rates of car ownership causing the changes, rather than being a result. I see that you live in a part of the world that's very dependent on car sales, as I do. We both know how badly a decline in car manufacturing can effect an economy. I question whether it would destroy Detroit at this point, after so much manufacturing has already been lost.

I hate to think of a city becoming carfree because people can't afford cars, but i guess it could happen. What will happen to Silicon Valley and San Francisco when/if most technology and software development jobs are automated? Some people say it won't be long before computers are writing the code that runs computers with little or no human input.

FYI, a discussion in a Detroiter forum about being voluntarily carfree in the city as it exists today: Is it crazy to (voluntarily) live without a car in Detroit?

Roody

China? By robots?

tandempower

Cars facilitate the kind of degeneracy economics that allow a depressed economy to consume itself. Take drugs and prostitution, for example. They are self-destructive industries driven by desperation and they are much more efficient by driving. This is not to say car-free populations can't self-destruct given access to a culture of drug-abuse and prostitution. In fact, if all the people in a ghetto would run out of money paying to maintain their driving habits, drugs and prostitution might not run as rampant, but then again drug pushers and prostitutes will target people with cars in the hope of eventually getting them to sell them or otherwise give them up in order to divert that portion of their budget to the dealers.

Anyway, the point is that the relationship between economic recession and personal automobiles is more complex than direct correlation or causation. It all has to do with money and the ability of people to manipulate others into increasing and transferring liquidity from other assets and revenue-sources. Welcome to socialism.

CliffordK

Prostitution was alive and well during the Roman era... long before cars were dreamt up. Drugs too? Crime? Organized Crime?
Perhaps the ancient Romans picked their prostitutes up in the fancy Roman Chariots!!! Brothels were popular in the USA before the cars.

Now, I do believe that the rapid increases in gas prices between 2000 and 2008 significantly impacted the downturn in our economy, and most Americans can do with a bit more regular of an exercise program. Cars are just too convenient.

Roody

I see you live in Eugene. I spent a few days in Eugene years ago. It's a nice college town with a good climate and a progressive citizenry. I would have thought it would be on a short list for becoming the first carfree American city. What do you think?

Zedoo

I have been wondering how much future do college towns have. Most colleges are losing funding and trying to get more from students.

I have some unpleasant memories of waiting at a gas station because my car blew the transmission. My brother was waiting in the dorm lobby, since he didn't have a room anymore. We both waited hours for another ride.

cooker

Eighty years from now I assume a lot of that will be done differently than today. Visiting your lawyer, accountant or therapist could easily all be done remotely. Many medical 'visits' will be by telecommunication - that's already starting, and- doctors do less and less actual touching of patients already, with more reliance on lab tests and scans. We're also already seeing home lab tests starting to work their way into the system. So you doctor, if she's not replaced by a robot by then, will monitor your health remotely and check in with you periodically to discuss your health status by hologram. Some home repairs and building construction might be done robotically in the future. More people may live in large apartment or condo buildings that may even have their own maintenance staff in residence and perhaps some components and parts will be printed out on site. That doesn't mean nobody will be commuting to work or working on the move, but it may well be a far smaller proportion than today.

I-Like-To-Bike

Correct, a lot of those things might happen in some way significant enough to make a real difference in how people live. Then again maybe some other things might happen; or not. Probably a safe bet to say that some/many changes are likely.

In playtime scenarios, anything is possible.

cooker

I don't get it. This is speculative thread. Are you attempting to mock me for speculating in a speculative thread?

Roody

Not really is anything possible; it's a lot more fun if you try to stay within the realms of possibility. Talking about winged unicorns replacing cars is silly and boring because there is no possibility of it happening. Talking about bicycles, driverless cars, and drones replacing cars is interesting because there is at least an inkling that this might really happen.

I think you have to be a bit of nerd to enjoy this kind of thing. But keep in mind that some great books have been written about the variety of possible futures. (Wells, Huxley, Orwell, Atwood, and many others.)

I-Like-To-Bike

Heck no. Just stating the obvious, though some posters seem to believe almost anything they dream up is true, or will come to pass because they wish it to be so.

ironwood

Maybe Miami because of rising sea levels, or New Orleans for the same reason.

Roody

So there seem to be several possible forces for reducing cars and driving in this century, including

• less need to drive as technology makes for more alternatives,
• tech such as driverless cars reduces demand for private cars,
• pollution and congestion force society to reduce or eliminate cars,
• people spend less on cars, either by choice or because cars become much less affordable, and/or
• more local, walkable lifestyles are adopted by most people.

I guess these factors would occur pretty regularly in all parts of the developed world. Maybe there won't be a single city that becomes the "first" carfree city. Maybe all cities will just gradually become more and more carfree. Most big social change is spontaneous, unplanned, and gradual.

Somebody might wake up in 2100 and say, "Hey! Remember cars? Whatever happened to them? I haven't seen a car in a long time."

Roody

I think New York is in the same boat (pun intended). Currently, the plan is to build big walls around these cities to hold out the sea, as I understand it. So the city will be in a big bowl, with the sea lapping at the rims. Nice.... How long will we have to pay for that mess?

FlatSix911

If you include college campuses ... Stanford, CA

El Cid

I really think you are over-analysing this. In a nutshell, love of cars is a basic extension of human nature -- most people wanna get more and put in less effort. And when will people give that up? When we get hit by the friggin' mother of all depressions.

tandempower

Those are good points. The point is that recession and/or high fuel prices don't automatically translate into diversion of spending away from driving, even if alternatives are available. Many people will resort to crime to make money to afford to continue driving before they will trade in their cars for bikes or transit.

The question is whether recession also cuts into criminal businesses like drugs and prostitution, which I think it does. At some point, some people will end up short enough on cash AND credit that they will have to make sacrifices like giving up driving, but it takes them a long time to reach that point given all the options to stave off the sacrifice by committing to worse fates down the road, such as bankruptcy and prison. Too many people like to gamble with their future thinking that some miracle will save them from the fate they've chosen and earned. Thank goodness for second chances but how annoying that so many people abuse them to continue down the path of unsustainabilities.

[FONT=Verdana]Not necessarily; see above. I think more and more will give it up as they start to realize they can get around with less hassle by bike and transit because auto traffic is so congested and expensive. The global stimulus industry seems to be preserving most people's option to continue driving, though, for the time being at least. The more people forego automotive spending, though, the more the economy will become dependent on people foregoing automotive spending to spend the money on other things.

Imagine if everyone who currently doesn't own/drive a car would suddenly buy one and start making payments, paying for insurance, etc. Their disposable income would tighten significantly until they accept credit from the insurance companies and investors they are paying money to for their cars. They would then be under pressure to pay back not only the car loan but also the person credit loans to maintain their spending levels prior to driving. That's a big gamble; one I don't think the casino economy can cover anymore - considering it never really did in the past either (we just keep dissociating the recessions and wars from the economic waste that precedes them for some reason).

Walter S

I must not be human. At least I know what's going on now! Thank you.

I used to drive but I don't anymore. The experience is dull to me. And it weakens me and I get fat and don't like how I feel and look. Sure, you can be fit and drive. But with my life exercise is just a side effect of living. It's not a chore or something I can't seem to get around to. And it feels like clean living to be mostly vegetarian and not burning fossile fules. And I can retire sooner because I save money before retirement AND live cheaper in retirement.

Edit: I do agree with you though. It is obvious that most people apparently want to drive cars. I'm just glad it's not compulsory!

gerv 

I can see a life jacket, along with a helmet, will be standard kit on a bicycle.

cooker

Or when they discover or develop better ways of doing things. Who could have predicted 10 or 15 years ago that land-line telephones would be disappearing or that single purpose cameras, and wristwatches would be in serious decline? The smart phone is replacing all of those; and some new products or technologies or services will likely come along, that will offer easier ways to do some of the stuff we now do with cars, causing people to see less point in owning a car.

Machka 

+1

And that's tandempower for you ... the master over-analyser.

Machka 

If you want a car-free city, you have to look at what propels the economy of the city.

If the city is agriculture-driven ... vehicles are needed for that.

If the city is manufacturing-driven ... vehicles are needed for that.

If the city is tourism-driven ... might work, especially if you made the car-freeness a tourist attraction.

If the city is education-driven (college town) ... maybe.

(just 4 examples, I'm sure you can all think of others)


Then you have to look at how people will get around without cars. There would need to be excellent public transportation in one form or another. So ... is there public transportation already? Will the economy of the city be able to afford to upgrade or install public transportation? Will the terrain and environmental conditions of the city be conducive to public transportation?

Or can the industry take place from home? If the city is education-driven, that might be a possibility. Already, classes are half online modules and partially taught through video feeds, it wouldn't be a stretch for the whole class to be taught as some form of distance education


You might have to look at the age of the population. If the city is more or less a retirement community ... maybe it could be car-free provided there are easily accessible amenities and convenient public transportation.


There are a lot of factors that would go into this ... that would incline a community toward or against the idea of being car-free.

But, as I've mentioned earlier, I don't see large segments of the population giving up a personal and individual method of transportation. People like to be able to get into their personal and individual method of transportation ... and go somewhere on their own, whenever they want with the least amount of effort possible.

cooker

Again, we're talking about 80 years in the future - almost 3 generations. People today may be entrenched in their habits of driving so we perhaps we won't see big shifts in the current population, but those attitudes and preferences may be long gone when we get to their great-grandchildren, especially as new technologies may make cars unnecessary in various ways.

Machka 

And I'm talking about centuries past. People have been using horses or camels or donkeys or whatever for hundreds of years, perhaps thousands of years ... those were what they had in the way of personal and individual methods of transportation.

You're not going to remove that desire for personal and individual methods of transportation in 3 generations.

cooker

But during most of that time, they didn't necessarily use the camels etc. to get around inside their cities, which tended to be compact and walkable, until the car came along.