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Posting some info from another member re Coronovirus

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Posting some info from another member re Coronovirus

Old 03-17-20, 08:32 PM
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Miele Man
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Posting some info from another member re Coronovirus

This was emailed to me from another member who asked me to post it for them.An update from Dr. Otto Yang, Infectious Disease Doctor at UCLA:



I've seen so much misinformation making the rounds, and increasing panic, so I thought I'd share my thoughts in follow-up to my earlier posts. The situation is continuing to evolve, but overall nothing has changed drastically from my prior posts.



Transmission and protecting yourself.



All RELIABLE data to date still indicate that the virus is carried in respiratory droplets from infected persons who cough/sneeze and NOT aerosol. What this means is that the virus doesn't float through the air and you don't get infected by breathing the same air as an infected person. To get infected, a person has to cough forcefully in your face so that droplets land directly on susceptible cells in your eyes, nose, or mouth. Alternatively, the droplets with virus land on a surface, you touch that surface, and you touch your face. This means that unless you are directly in close contact with an infected person, no mask is necessary (e.g. walking in public places where you are several feet away from others). If you're in a crowded area face to face with others, a regular mask may be appropriate (with eyewear). The mask isn't acting as a filter; it is acting as a shield against droplets. So that also means an N95 is not needed. It is no more useful as a shield than a regular mask. One thing that HAS changed since my last posts is that authorities are relaxing about healthcare professionals wearing N95 masks. The Canadian CDC, for example, is requiring only normal masks in hospitals (unless the patient is getting a high-risk procedure that generates a lot of aerosols) and normal isolation rooms without negative airflow. Our own CDC, as well as local public health authorities, are also considering downgrading their current isolation protocols. There are reassuring reports, such as two airplane passengers with COVID-19 on a 15-hour flight who did not transmit to anyone on the plane. Bottom line: You don't need an N95, and you don't even need a regular mask. You might consider a regular mask if you will be in very crowded areas especially around international travelers and if you are at higher risk for serious illness.



Who is at risk for serious illness?



The data are clear that age is a major factor. Mortality takes off rapidly starting around age 40-50. Still, as I discussed earlier, current mortality estimates appear to be quite high, and true mortality is probably much lower due to the underdiagnosis of mild cases. Best guess now is that overall 80% of people have mild illness not requiring hospitalization. About 5% will have a very severe illness. This is overall; again age is a huge factor. No children under 10 have died according to a large case series from China (with the caveat that their reports are not always reliable). What will the final overall mortality rate be? It seems highly likely that it will be south of 1% (versus the current media reports of >3%). Perhaps 0.5% or less? We'll see. But it's not like the 1918 Spanish flu that had a mortality that some estimated to be as high as 10%. Besides masks, handwashing and surface decontamination are absolutely essential. It's not clear how long the virus lives on a surface, although people are citing very detailed exact numbers.... We don't know, but it's moot. Who cares? Treat every surface like it could have a virus. Again, bleach or Lysol-type wipes and sprays are extremely

effective. Hand sanitizer should have at least 60% alcohol; soap and water are better if you can wash your hands. If stores are sold out, buy rubbing alcohol and mix it with a moisturizer like aloe gel at a ratio of 1 part to 2 parts alcohol (66% alcohol). Should you stop going to public places and events? General rule: If you can control your distance from other people and decontaminate things you have to touch, it's probably OK. Again, the virus doesn't float in aerosol. So, if you go to a gym and can wipe stuff down and you can keep a distance from people, that's probably fine. Going to a punk concert where people are slam dancing... not so much. And again, this has to be weighed with personal risk, including your age. Diabetes, chronic lung disease, and cardiovascular disease are also significant risks for severe disease. Weigh all this in your decision. Also remember, you need to protect those around you, and that is a matter of personal responsibility. You want to protect not only yourself, but everyone you know who may be exposed to you, and weigh that in your risks too.There has been a document "from Stanford" floating around. It demonstrates a dangerous trend, which is mixing true useful information that comes from reliable sources with total nonsense. Washing hands? Yes, absolutely. Gargling with saline? Not useful. Taking deep breaths to see if you have lung fibrosis? Nonsense, that is not even worthy of being on House MD. Drinking water every 15 minutes to wash the virus into your stomach where it is killed by acid? Makes absolutely no sense; once a virus hits a cell it will stick and enter quickly. This is only useful for causing you to pee every 15 minutes. Garlic? Nope. Essential oils? Nope. Bleach? Drinking bleach is a good way to die. Sesame oil? Smells nice but won't help.



What's on the horizon for treatment?



Right now, treatment is "supportive care," which means providing oxygen and breathing artificially if you can't breathe well enough until your body recovers naturally. The virus causes an inflammatory process in the lungs that impairs their ability to exchange oxygen. If the inflammation gets very bad, your body can develop shock, with low blood pressure and multiple organ failure, which is the common "sepsis" syndrome seen with any overwhelming infection. As for specific treatment, the most promising agent now is a drug that was being developed to treat SARS before it disappeared, called Remdesivir. It blocks an enzyme used by the virus to reproduce its genetic material. A few major medical centers are involved in clinical trials of this drug (I am the principal investigator who has enrolled UCLA in a trial), and the company with this drug (Gilead) has a program to issue the drug as a "compassionate use" agent, i.e. a doctor can request it for desperate cases, although my understanding is that Gilead is being overwhelmed with these requests and it may be hard to get. A big unknown that has not been discussed much in the press is seasonality. The other coronaviruses (including SARS) tend to be most active in fall-winter months and wane dramatically in spring-summer. SARS in fact totally disappeared, never to return (again all expectations and predictions). I doubt this virus will disappear, but we may see a dramatic decline when the weather warms; it's too early to say if we'll be this lucky. In the meantime, we all need to take personal responsibility to slow its spread. We won't stop it, but we may reduce the number of cases and save many lives. Even if in the worst-case scenario we can't reduce the number of cases, just slowing it down will be very helpful. The problem in Italy now, where there aren't enough ventilators for patients and they are dying in the hallways, is that too many cases have presented all at once. If we slow it down so that the cases we get are spread out over time, that will prevent our health system from being overwhelmed in that way. It's like releasing water from a dam; a controlled flow is manageable but a sudden onslaught is not.



Above all, be rational and don't panic.



We'll get through this. Hopefully, our CDC will step up and overcome its completely inadequate management of surveillance and testing thus far, and private companies will bring testing online to make up for this egregious shortcoming of CDC leadership.
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Old 03-17-20, 08:36 PM
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Miele Man,
Thanks for posting this for me! Smiles, MH
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Old 03-17-20, 09:05 PM
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I dont entirely trust US doctors at this point. They are telling us we dont need mask, probably so people dont panic because masks are sold out, and they are running out of n95s.

WHO says mask are provide increase protection. Asian countries all telling their people to wear mask. Why wouldnt you wear mask if you got one?

People here are dumbfounded that American govt is telling their citizens its not needed, and we see videos of American standing in line shoulder-to-shoulder and no one wearing mask. When we were short on mask a few weeks ago, alot of people resorted to making their own mask out of cloth. Yes, even simple cloth provide a minimum level of protection. And its a good reminder to maintain good hygene.

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Old 03-17-20, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict View Post
I dont entirely trust US doctors at this point. They are telling us we dont need mask, probably so people dont panic because masks are sold out, and they are running out of n95s.

WHO says mask are provide increase protection. Asian countries all telling their people to wear mask. Why wouldnt you wear mask if you got one?

People here are dumbfounded that American govt is telling their citizens its not needed. When we were short on mask a few weeks ago, alot of people resorted to making their own mask out of cloth, and face shield. Yes, even simple cloth provide a minimum level of protection. And its a good reminder to maintain good hygene.
Tell us why you think we need masks? What are they going to do to help normal people in normal general public? What about those who truly need them not being able to get them?

Yes I get it freak out a bunch and buy supplies because this is a zombie or end of the world movie because this is all we know. However maybe don't do that. There are people who really need masks and other crucial supplies and most of you don't. Good hygiene and being more cautious is super important though. Keep smart and while yes don't normally trust the government also be reasonable in a situation like this and trust trained medical professionals and sound advice.
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Old 03-17-20, 10:18 PM
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict View Post
I dont entirely trust US doctors at this point. They are telling us we dont need mask, probably so people dont panic because masks are sold out, and they are running out of n95s.

WHO says mask are provide increase protection. Asian countries all telling their people to wear mask. Why wouldnt you wear mask if you got one?

People here are dumbfounded that American govt is telling their citizens its not needed. When we were short on mask a few weeks ago, alot of people resorted to making their own mask out of cloth, and face shield. Yes, even simple cloth provide a minimum level of protection. And its a good reminder to maintain good hygene.
Vice president Mike Pence has asked construction companies to donate masks to hospitals after nurses reveal they are being told to reuse them.

Executive Director of National Nurses United, Bonnie Castillo told CBS News that hospitals are struggling, amid a lack of masks available.

"Nurses are being asked to actually reuse masks, including surgical masks, which provide no protection," she said.
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Old 03-17-20, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by veganbikes View Post
Tell us why you think we need masks? What are they going to do to help normal people in normal general public? What about those who truly need them not being able to get them?
=13.33px.

This is a new virus. Much we still dont understand. How it transmit. It is too early to say you cannot get it by aerosol or things like that.

Take precaution. Do as much as you can.

Last edited by mtb_addict; 03-17-20 at 10:31 PM.
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Old 03-17-20, 11:26 PM
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Good no-nonsense information - alas, it'll likely get lost in the noise. I'm not a virologist, but I have a doctorate in microbiology and worked for many years with an airborne pathogen (M. tuberculosis). Masks and face protection are useful for stopping droplets (which are orders of magnitude larger than the viral particles themselves) hitting mucous membranes (mouth, nose, eyes). They're also useful for stopping infected individuals from spraying the landscape when they cough/sneeze. They're also useful for preventing people unconsciously touching their mouth and nose. However, for the average person going about their day, they're of little use. For one reason, N95 masks don't work unless they're properly sized and fitted - just sticking a mask on your face does little to filter out particles in the air, as every inhalation pulls air in through the gaps around your nose and face, bypassing the filtration of the mask. An proper N95 fitting is a frequently long drawn-out process, where a professional takes the time to show you how to fit the correctly-sized mask so that there are no gaps, and then tests the integrity of the fit. That's why professional healthcare providers might benefit from the use of such masks - they're using them properly. For the average Joe Blow with a mask he bought on Amazon or Ebay, the mask is little more than a feel-good crutch. For another, as the OP says, all the evidence suggests that the virus is spread through contact with viral droplets, which are too large to hang around in the air. They contaminate surfaces and are then transferred by touch to susceptible mucous membrane surfaces. Watching where you put your hands, and frequent surface decon and hand washing, are the key.
For myself, I avoid crowds, go to the grocery store off-peak, and work from home. I carry a small spray container (repurposed lens cleaner sprayer) with 70% isopropanol which I use to douse the handle of the shopping cart, we all wash our hands thoroughly when we enter the house from outside, and I give frequently-touched surfaces (eg door handles & light switches) a spray of lysol maybe once a day. Coronavirus is what's called an enveloped virus, in that the viral particle is sheathed in a lipid membrane, which is essential for infectivity. Solvents (like alcohols), detergents and dilute bleaches disrupt the membrane and render the virus inviable. Viruses like these are pretty easy to kill when they're "on the outside". By all accounts, if left alone, it will survive for up to 2-3 days on a hard surface, but regular decon makes that moot.
My cycling has been affected in that our club has cancelled all rides for the foreseeable, so I'm riding in small informal groups, and all of the coffee shops and restaurants in my state have been closed, so I have to plan my longer rides around the few grocery stores that also have coffee (any >40 mi ride without a coffee stop is a miserable affair!). My isopropanol sprayer goes in my jersey pocket in case I need to decon something - or I might just spritz my hands if I think I've touched something high-traffic or potentially contaminated. Short of one of my fellow riders hacking up in my face, I'm comfortable that the chances of someone infecting me while on a ride are negligible - that being said, if we're gasping up a steep climb, I'll try to be ahead of my fellow riders ...just in case

Last edited by Litespud; 03-17-20 at 11:40 PM.
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Old 03-18-20, 12:34 AM
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If you choose to wear a mask be sure you know how to use it and how to dispose of it.

See WHO site regarding masks.
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Old 03-18-20, 01:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
If you choose to wear a mask be sure you know how to use it and how to dispose of it.

See WHO site regarding masks.
When and how to use masks

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...w-to-use-masks

Read it all ... download the posters.
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Old 03-18-20, 01:52 AM
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Here in Australia you can't get masks at the moment. People are buying anything vaguely mask shaped and obviously piling them up in a cupboard somewhere, as they aren't wearing them around. I need them for my work, cutting bricks, stripping lead paint etc etc I have about 5 left and I'm recycling those. Dunno what happens when they are gone.
Had to make my own sanitiser as well, but that's OK, way cheaper and better than the manufactured stuff anyway.
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Old 03-18-20, 03:30 AM
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Virusforums.net is down the hall.
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Old 03-18-20, 06:13 AM
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict View Post
I dont entirely trust US doctors at this point. They are telling us we dont need mask, probably so people dont panic because masks are sold out, and they are running out of n95s.

WHO says mask are provide increase protection. Asian countries all telling their people to wear mask. Why wouldnt you wear mask if you got one?
The World Health Organization does not recommend masks for people who are not ill:

"A medical mask is not required if exhibiting no symptoms, as there is no evidence that wearing a mask – of any type – protects non-sick persons. However, in some cultures, masks may be commonly worn. If masks are to be worn, it is critical to follow best practices on how to wear, remove and dispose of them and on hand hygiene after removal (see Advice on the use of masks)"

https://www.who.int/news-room/articl...id-19-outbreak

Save the masks for health care providers who are at the greatest risk of exposure to the virus.
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Old 03-18-20, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
Virusforums.net is down the hall.


Im thankful for the info myself ---- this is the only forum I frequent with regularity and I don't watch television (not out of ignorance, or some social stance -- just busy most nights)
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Old 03-18-20, 07:57 AM
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict View Post
I dont entirely trust US doctors at this point. They are telling us we dont need mask, probably so people dont panic because masks are sold out, and they are running out of n95s.

WHO says mask are provide increase protection. Asian countries all telling their people to wear mask. Why wouldnt you wear mask if you got one?

People here are dumbfounded that American govt is telling their citizens its not needed, and we see videos of American standing in line shoulder-to-shoulder and no one wearing mask. When we were short on mask a few weeks ago, alot of people resorted to making their own mask out of cloth. Yes, even simple cloth provide a minimum level of protection. And its a good reminder to maintain good hygene.
The masks only help prevent spread of the disease when infected people wear them, so when they cough or sneeze they don't spray infected spit/snot droplets everywhere. They do not help a healthy person avoid the disease. If you're out in public wearing a mask and you touch an infected surface and then absentmindedly touch your face (such as to adjust your mask), the chances of you getting the virus are high.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
Virusforums.net is down the hall.

At this point, I don't think any activity can be considered separately from information about the virus. Whether it's safe or not to go outside without a mask obviously has implications for cyclists.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:12 AM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
At this point, I don't think any activity can be considered separately from information about the virus. Whether it's safe or not to go outside without a mask obviously has implications for cyclists.
I am thinking of starting a thread asking whether disc brakes or rim brakes are better for combating the virus.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
I am thinking of starting a thread asking whether disc brakes or rim brakes are better for combating the virus.
What are the chances of the virus surviving on surfaces of disc brakes versus rim brakes? How much weight do they add?
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Old 03-18-20, 08:21 AM
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Or, along the same line, which chain lube is best for killing / protecting against the virus.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:26 AM
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Originally Posted by tagaproject6 View Post
What are the chances of the virus surviving on surfaces of disc brakes versus rim brakes?

How much weight do they add?
Might the answer depend on the type of rim brake. Canti. V-Brake. Dual pivot caliper. Etc. I am not a bike tech dweeb so I don't know.

As for weight, do you mean the brakes or the viris themselves?
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Old 03-18-20, 08:26 AM
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Having worn masks (and gloves) for over a month now, It seems to be mostly a selfless act.

They will help if you happen to cough or sneeze, that's about it.

Doctors and Nurses on the front lines in full PPE usually end up getting infected.

The safest place for most people who aren't in need of medical attention is likely to be where ever they call home.


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Old 03-18-20, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by hazetguy View Post
Or, along the same line, which chain lube is best for killing / protecting against the virus.
DUH. NFS. It stands for No Friggin' Sickness.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post

The safest place for most people who aren't in need of medical attention is likely to be where ever they call home.
Isn't that wherever my heart is?
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Old 03-18-20, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict View Post
This is a new virus. Much we still dont understand. How it transmit. It is too early to say you cannot get it by aerosol or things like that.

Take precaution. Do as much as you can.
What I am learning is that some people have their own internal scripts that can't be easily changed by facts. They want to believe, or not believe a certain thing and no amount of evidence will change that. When presented with facts they simply say they don't trust the source.

Why? I do not know.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
Having worn masks (and gloves) for over a month now, It seems to be mostly a selfless act...
Really? If you wear at a minimum, one mask / day that means 30/31 masks you have taken out of circulation for health care providers. Multiply that by the number of people in your country and it starts looking a little less selfless. Kind what the supply problem is all about.

If you really feel strongly about it wear a bandana and wash it every day - does the same thing and leaves the masks for front line health care providers.
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Old 03-18-20, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
Virusforums.net is down the hall.
Is it next door to Soldier Cyclist of Fortune.net? Informative threads over there; saw one recently: 'How to Weaponize Your Bike'.
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