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Look what this crackpot wrote about 2020 in 2010

Old 06-16-20, 07:18 PM
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wgscott
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Look what this crackpot wrote about 2020 in 2010

https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a

This was written ten years ago:

Very long 'secular cycles' interact with shorter-term processes. In the United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020. We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles. This could mean that future recessions will be severe. In addition, the next decade will see a rapid growth in the number of people in their twenties, like the youth bulge that accompanied the turbulence of the 1960s and 1970s. All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.
There's some ranting and raving as well, but the prediction seems spot-on.

Last edited by wgscott; 06-16-20 at 09:35 PM.
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Old 06-17-20, 01:13 AM
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I studied sociodemographic cycles in the later 2000’s….Turchin’s writings on population dynamics included. I do see a political environment that ripens conditions for significant social stress and also with a decline in the living standards may be where we are headed today. The idea of China becoming the most powerful nation was also predicted during that time and still seems to have truth to it today.
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Old 06-17-20, 01:21 AM
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I don't really know anything about this stuff, but it really seems almost scarily prescient, at least in terms of the date. I find it mind-boggling that it could be that predictable.
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Old 06-17-20, 02:13 AM
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I wouldn’t say the theories are absolutely predictive in terms of years and…with hope, i also see it as about a generational creation of a new/better social, political, and economic climate.
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Old 06-17-20, 03:16 AM
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When I was in undergrad in the 80's I went to the language department to ask about learning Chinese. They didn't offer any and wondered why anyone would want to learn how to communicate with the most populace country.
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Old 06-17-20, 07:38 AM
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I don't think this COVID-19 economic dip it the recession he's talking about, at least not yet. These past few months were just a 'blip', I'd call it a recession if the financial markets go back down, businesses don't see a return to pre-COVID-19 revenue and earnings, and we have a 'second wave' of virus infections before a vaccine becomes widely available I think it'll happen late this year or early next year.
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Old 06-18-20, 10:53 PM
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Originally Posted by skidder View Post
I don't think this COVID-19 economic dip it the recession he's talking about, at least not yet. These past few months were just a 'blip', I'd call it a recession if the financial markets go back down, businesses don't see a return to pre-COVID-19 revenue and earnings, and we have a 'second wave' of virus infections before a vaccine becomes widely available I think it'll happen late this year or early next year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coro...-suggests.html
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Old 06-18-20, 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by clemsongirl View Post
I studied sociodemographic cycles in the later 2000’s….Turchin’s writings on population dynamics included. I do see a political environment that ripens conditions for significant social stress and also with a decline in the living standards may be where we are headed today. The idea of China becoming the most powerful nation was also predicted during that time and still seems to have truth to it today.
Yup gotta agree with ya covered similar stuff in my Kollage days ... Geography/History major makes me think differently in today’s situation as compared to my environment. It is becoming more stressful to keep things the way you are accustomed to. I see improvements with people here than before and that is good. Petty BS put aside to help each other out regardless of race or wealth. But I’m in a rural area not a densely populated city. San Antonio has had protests but it has been civil with just a few minor incidents. Just a local example. $20 fee just to launch a boat at the area lake. For here that is crazy but I spend it because I want to get on the water. Use to be 5 bucks... All over the lake people have up political logos as if we are at war. I’m like I just want to fish and take a swim. On a positive note watching people enjoying water sports and having a great time as I’m trying to catch that delicious bass makes me feel
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Old 06-19-20, 12:11 AM
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Unemployment is definitely getting bad.

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Old 06-19-20, 07:23 AM
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Old 06-19-20, 09:22 AM
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In case it wasn't obvious, I am using the term
crackpot
ironically.
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Old 06-19-20, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
I find it mind-boggling that it could be that predictable.
Lol yeah.
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Old 06-19-20, 11:33 AM
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Old 06-19-20, 11:35 AM
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Maybe I should havre said I find it mind-boggling that there is a regular pattern or interval with respect to these kinds of events.

I think the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is an ideal example of why it is impossible to predict the future (an example I am confident Sir Karl, whom I once met) would approve.
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Old 06-19-20, 11:40 AM
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It was a joke, although I do think the onus of proof is on those who believe in free will...
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