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Will we see a Shimano 12 speed road groupset by the end of 2020/beginning of 2021?

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Will we see a Shimano 12 speed road groupset by the end of 2020/beginning of 2021?

Old 06-25-20, 08:52 AM
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Plainsman
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Will we see a Shimano 12 speed road groupset by the end of 2020/beginning of 2021?

Shimano is traditionally tight lipped, but it seems like now that Campy and SRAM both have 12 speed systems on the market a Shimano 12 speed road group is inevitable. Campy has been on the 12 speed train for what, two years now? The question is really just when. Has anyone seen any "spy" shots out there, as typically might show up around Tour time? I'm skeptical about a Di2 wireless offering, but regardless it seems like if Shimano goes another season without 12 on the road (they were quick with the Mtn. group) then they are going to be perceived as falling behind. Not arguing the NEED for 12 speed, just that it is most likely happening. Anyone have industry rumors / insight to share?
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Old 06-26-20, 07:24 AM
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If I was a bettin' man, I'd say that a 12 speed road group will be announced next year at Shimano's 100th Anniversary. Likely Dura Ace using the new micro-spline freehub that's been on XTR for a while now.

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Old 06-28-20, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by PoorInRichfield View Post
If I was a bettin' man, I'd say that a 12 speed road group will be announced next year at Shimano's 150th Anniversary. Likely Dura Ace using the new micro-spline freehub that's been on XTR for a while now.
Oooo, thatís a good one. I didnít even realize the anniversary angle. I thought it was 100 years though (1921). That would be good timing. Now with both a Force and Red 12 speed option, and the 12 speed Record, hard to see Shimano being comfortable with being the odd man out for another full season. And that would put us looking at a 12 speed Ultegra in 2022 or 2023. Typing that makes it look like science fiction dates!
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Old 06-28-20, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Plainsman View Post
Oooo, thatís a good one. I didnít even realize the anniversary angle. I thought it was 100 years though (1921). That would be good timing. Now with both a Force and Red 12 speed option, and the 12 speed Record, hard to see Shimano being comfortable with being the odd man out for another full season. And that would put us looking at a 12 speed Ultegra in 2022 or 2023. Typing that makes it look like science fiction dates!
It's 100 years, yes. And there's clearly something coming, and I'd bet a huge chunk of money it's 12-speed DA, probably with a fixed PM.

https://www.shimano.com/en/100th/
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Old 06-28-20, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Bah Humbug View Post
It's 100 years, yes. And there's clearly something coming, and I'd bet a huge chunk of money it's 12-speed DA, probably with a fixed PM.

https://www.shimano.com/en/100th/
You'd have to think that for Shimanoís 100th birthday, theyíll need to do something more innovative than Wireless (which SRAM has had for a while) 12 speed (which is standard in MTB, and SRAM and Campag have on the road) with a microspline (starting the obsolescence clock on all old wheels). Maybe put the gearbox patent into production? A new way to do road 1x that doesnít suck? Some form of CVT transmission for bikes?


Even going to 13 speed will still leave them 2 years behind Rotor.

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Old 06-29-20, 05:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Leinster View Post
You'd have to think that for Shimanoís 100th birthday, theyíll need to do something more innovative than Wireless (which SRAM has had for a while) 12 speed (which is standard in MTB, and SRAM and Campag have on the road) with a microspline (starting the obsolescence clock on all old wheels). Maybe put the gearbox patent into production? A new way to do road 1x that doesnít suck? Some form of CVT transmission for bikes?


Even going to 13 speed will still leave them 2 years behind Rotor.
I will say this for Shimano though - they often are not first to the party, but in my experience when they do launch they've tested most of the kinks out of whatever they produce. I remember back in the early 2000s when compact cranks were starting to catch on, if you wanted one you were basically limited to an aftermarket version (my first was an FSA). We wondered if Shimano would EVER produce a compact crank - but when they did they nailed it. My suspicion is that the 12 speed road group has been undergoing testing for quite some time, and it going to come with some bells and whistles we haven't really thought of yet. Hoping it comes soon though.
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Old 06-29-20, 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Plainsman View Post
I will say this for Shimano though - they often are not first to the party, but in my experience when they do launch they've tested most of the kinks out of whatever they produce. I remember back in the early 2000s when compact cranks were starting to catch on, if you wanted one you were basically limited to an aftermarket version (my first was an FSA). We wondered if Shimano would EVER produce a compact crank - but when they did they nailed it. My suspicion is that the 12 speed road group has been undergoing testing for quite some time, and it going to come with some bells and whistles we haven't really thought of yet. Hoping it comes soon though.
Not that I think they have to be first to the party, but I just think they can't show up 2 years late and say "Wish me a happy birthday!"
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Old 06-29-20, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Leinster View Post
I just think they can't show up 2 years late and say "Wish me a happy birthday!"
I think you(and Shimano) are the only one that cares about the 100th anniversary.
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Old 06-29-20, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by noodle soup View Post
I think you(and Shimano) are the only one that cares about the 100th anniversary.
The 3 posts before mine all reference what Shimano are going to do for their 100th anniversary.

I personally don't really care if they decide to spend their birthday in the playgound at McDonalds, I was only responding to Bah Humbug saying that they'll likely roll out 12 speed Dura Ace as part of the celebrations. I happen to think they're a bit behind the game if that's their plan.
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Old 06-29-20, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Leinster View Post
Not that I think they have to be first to the party, but I just think they can't show up 2 years late and say "Wish me a happy birthday!"
I donít care if itís their birthday, and I donít care if SRAM already has (bad) wireless or Rotor already has (bad) 13-speed. I do care if the Shimano I get on a bike next year is better than this year, with the expected quality and reliability. It would also be good to see whatís going to happen in terms of compatibility - new Di2/ splines/ spacing?

No one cares that Mavic did electronic shifting years before Di2.
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Old 06-29-20, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Bah Humbug View Post
I donít care if itís their birthday, and I donít care if SRAM already has (bad) wireless or Rotor already has (bad) 13-speed. I do care if the Shimano I get on a bike next year is better than this year, with the expected quality and reliability. It would also be good to see whatís going to happen in terms of compatibility - new Di2/ splines/ spacing?

No one cares that Mavic did electronic shifting years before Di2.
Thatís fair.

To your suggestions, if I would like to see anything, it would be an upgrade to Di2 that future proofs the shifters, and maybe derailleur, for increasing gear options. Thereís no reason the software shouldnít have the capacity to select 11, 12 or 13, up to infinity speeds if you can fit that spacing in the 40ish mm limits of the RD design.
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Old 06-29-20, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Leinster View Post
Thatís fair.

To your suggestions, if I would like to see anything, it would be an upgrade to Di2 that future proofs the shifters, and maybe derailleur, for increasing gear options. Thereís no reason the software shouldnít have the capacity to select 11, 12 or 13, up to infinity speeds if you can fit that spacing in the 40ish mm limits of the RD design.
Again, hadn't even thought about that one. As far as shifters go, I don't suppose there should be anything (beyond planned obsolescence) that would keep current 11 speed Di2 shifters from going to 12, should there? But then where is the market/profit for a new 13 speed group, or 12 speed update from 11 - charging for firmware updates?
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Old 06-29-20, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Plainsman View Post
Again, hadn't even thought about that one. As far as shifters go, I don't suppose there should be anything (beyond planned obsolescence) that would keep current 11 speed Di2 shifters from going to 12, should there? But then where is the market/profit for a new 13 speed group, or 12 speed update from 11 - charging for firmware updates?
Hmmm... Perhaps it should be the start of a new thread, but you've got me wondering the same... Other than needing a new 12 speed cassette, new freehub (likely Micro-spline), new chain, maybe new chain rings, and *maybe* a new rear derailleur, one would think that a Di2 system could be firmware updated to go from 11 to 12 speed so those of use with the existing Di2 wouldn't need to sell a kidney to upgrade. However, we all know that such a firmware upgrade won't come from Shimano if Di2 does go 12 speed
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Old 06-29-20, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by PoorInRichfield View Post
Hmmm... Perhaps it should be the start of a new thread, but you've got me wondering the same... Other than needing a new 12 speed cassette, new freehub (likely Micro-spline), new chain, maybe new chain rings, and *maybe* a new rear derailleur, one would think that a Di2 system could be firmware updated to go from 11 to 12 speed so those of use with the existing Di2 wouldn't need to sell a kidney to upgrade. However, we all know that such a firmware upgrade won't come from Shimano if Di2 does go 12 speed
I suspect you are right. Although, in the software world, companies moved away from selling the software outright to selling subscriptions. Don't get me wrong, I think having to have a subscription to make my group set (or power meter, or any other component) work would make me a mechanical guy forever. A subscription to ride my bike would be horrible. BUT, maybe there is an angle that I haven't thought of which expands their market, like a paid firmware update that gets you some basic upgrade to 12 or 13 from a previously bought 11 or 12, but new hardware would still come with other advantages (more bells and whistles, different gearing options, lighter, different aesthetic, speed of shifting, more integration, built in power, Garmin/Wahoo connectivity, etc). Some way for Shimano to sell new groupsets, but also upsell those who already have Di2? Hopefully we don't have to wait much longer to find out.
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Old 06-29-20, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Plainsman View Post
Again, hadn't even thought about that one. As far as shifters go, I don't suppose there should be anything (beyond planned obsolescence) that would keep current 11 speed Di2 shifters from going to 12, should there? But then where is the market/profit for a new 13 speed group, or 12 speed update from 11 - charging for firmware updates?
I'll preface this by saying I know nothing about software programming or signal processing or whatever other tech goes into electronic shifting. BUT, it does seem to me like the shifter's only role in electronic systems is to say "up 1", "down 1" and, in the really advanced versions, "and another one." If a Di2 controller can be programmed to scroll through your garmin or activate your dropper post, it has to be able to say "hey look, there's an extra cog here!"

The obvious market/profit is in the same answers to the eternal online cycling forum question "What, other than shifters, do I need to upgrade my z-speed bike to z+1/z+2/z+3?" New chain, new cassette, new chainrings and front derailleur (though some will argue you can probably get by with the old ones, and someone's mechanic friend will swear they work just fine). The old RD might be useable, but possibly with upgraded jockey wheels/cage because of the new chain.
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