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COVID Test Positive Rate... Important?

Old 08-10-20, 10:26 AM
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CliffordK
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COVID Test Positive Rate... Important?

John Hopkins is posting the weekly average positive test rate across the USA.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

For the country we are somewhere between 5% and 10%. However, it varies significantly from state to state.

And, with our second COVID wave, the rate of positive results increased along with increasing numbers of tests. Indicating that the increasing numbers of positive results likely was more than simply testing more.

How important is the metric? Does it mean a lot of asymptomatic people are getting tested for one reason or another when they probably didn't need a test?

Are we catching most of the cariers and "super-spreaders" of COVID?

And, should states have a target percent? What?

How will Cold and Flu season impact testing for COVID?
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Old 08-10-20, 11:07 AM
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I see the positive test rates as simply being the wake-up call. If rates are 5% in my county, then the odds are 1 in 20 that the person standing in-front of me is positive. So perhaps good mask fit, clean hands, short exposure time, etc, is important. Getting a little too comfortable or letting my guard down could be bad.
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Old 08-10-20, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
I see the positive test rates as simply being the wake-up call. If rates are 5% in my county, then the odds are 1 in 20 that the person standing in-front of me is positive. So perhaps good mask fit, clean hands, short exposure time, etc, is important. Getting a little too comfortable or letting my guard down could be bad.
No, that is the rate of number of tests being done vs the number of positive results.

So, that would only be true if you are standing in line for a COVID test.

Our county reports the number of new cases picked up in a day. Say 10 new cases a day. 14 days for 2 weeks of being infectious, and one gets about 140 people infectious in over 300,000 population. Or, a little less than 1 in 20,000.

What we don't really know is what percent of the cases are being picked up.

The Test Positivity rate is a proxy to determine how many are being picked up. If the Test Positivity rate approaches 100%... then one assumes one is also missing a lot of people who aren't getting tested, and we're only testing the severe cases. On the other hand, as the test positivity rate drops towards zero, then one concludes that we are testing adequately to pick up most of the sick individuals.

Unfortunately, a low positivity rate could mean we're simply testing the wrong people, and testing too many asymptomatic individuals.
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Old 08-10-20, 11:22 AM
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Oh, I realize that. But a one n ten or twenty test positives suggests a fair chance that others who have not tested might well be positive. To offset the tests often going to persons more likely to have had contact, I offer those in denial who will never go to get that test despite the precautions they are not taking.
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Old 08-10-20, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
How important is the metric? Does it mean a lot of asymptomatic people are getting tested for one reason or another when they probably didn't need a test?

Are we catching most of the cariers and "super-spreaders" of COVID?

And, should states have a target percent? What?

How will Cold and Flu season impact testing for COVID?
I'd think it's an important measure, overall, strongly suggestive of whether there are more "out there" yet to be tested.

Are we catching most of the carriers and "super-spreaders"? Not in the USA, we're not. From what a variety of reports have suggested, there's nsufficient testing and grossly insufficient contact-tracing staffing. That's a recipe for failure to get a handle on it, I'd say. Compounded with many gathering spots (shops, schools, business buildings) where a good percentage of people are failing to take precautions ... the results are probably predictable.

How will "cold and flu" season impact testing for COVID? It'll put further strain on an already-maxed system. There simply aren't enough people with enough hours in the day to do all the testing and handling necessary. System's overloaded in many places, right now; once late-autumn gets rolling, I strongly suspect it'll get even worse. And that's not even counting what the COVID thing might do based on possible seasonality (which we've no idea of, right now).

It's a pickle, and that's a fact.

Nicely, I rarely have to be out and around many folks, and almost never around crowds. So the risk is relatively lower for me. Pretty thankful for that, given the possibilities.
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Old 08-10-20, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
Are we catching most of the carriers and "super-spreaders"? Not in the USA, we're not. From what a variety of reports have suggested, there's nsufficient testing and grossly insufficient contact-tracing staffing. That's a recipe for failure to get a handle on it, I'd say. Compounded with many gathering spots (shops, schools, business buildings) where a good percentage of people are failing to take precautions ... the results are probably predictable.
Around here we have decent contact tracing, but it is all about the numbers. Averaging about 10 cases a day in my county. Say 10 contacts per person, and one has perhaps 100 people a day to track down. Even statewide, a few hundred a day, it is mostly less than a hundred per county, and mostly in the larger counties (although there have been some small counties hammered).

One metric that I don't see widely discussed is the number picked up with contact tracing vs the number with no known contacts. Imported cases from outside the local area?

Those with no known contacts indicate community spread, and a greater risk of picking the disease up at the grocery store.
Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
How will "cold and flu" season impact testing for COVID? It'll put further strain on an already-maxed system. There simply aren't enough people with enough hours in the day to do all the testing and handling necessary. System's overloaded in many places, right now; once late-autumn gets rolling, I strongly suspect it'll get even worse. And that's not even counting what the COVID thing might do based on possible seasonality (which we've no idea of, right now).
Yes...

Hopefully there will be a major push for Influenza vaccinations... and perhaps we'll see a lower than average flu season with a higher than average vaccination rate plus masks plus social distancing.

Yet, testing everyone with a cough or sniffles, and our system could easily be overwhelmed. Plus, we don't know if the spread of COVID will increase during the fall.

I'm trying to understand the COVID symptoms. Some discuss a "dry cough", but others suggest "runny nose", "General Malaise", "Fever", etc. Pneumonia & shortness of breath is an emergency, but pretty much everything else could be mistaken for just about any other respiratory disease, especially by patients who don't really know and only have personal experience.

Hopefully doctors won't get too stuck on COVID and ignore things like meningococcus.
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Old 08-10-20, 12:00 PM
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I hope a viable, easily-produced "home" test kit gets created in mass numbers, soon. Without it, without simple and quick verification at home, I suspect that any test requiring lab involvement will simply be overwhelmed when it comes to actually implementing the sheer number of tests required in order to matter a damn.
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Old 08-10-20, 07:48 PM
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So today Indiana University is starting to test returning student who will be on campus this fall. They claim a 20 minute response time for results. I'm bewildered by this new test that is available for returning students but we can't get it for the general population as well. I'm thinking what they are testing for is not real cases of covid but perhaps something akin to antibody testing. And not something that will give accurate testing for the virus as active or inactive. 45,000 students expected to arrive over two week period, and I am more frightened than ever over the influx of students. We used to just lament the traffic problems and drunken parties, now it comes with potential viral infections as well. Smiles, MH
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Old 08-12-20, 04:05 PM
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I live in an extremely rural area with a relatively low number of cases. I have little contact with other humanity, so my question is entirely academic: Was there any real expectation that the number of new cases and Covid deaths would trend to zero? Before the vaccines are implemented?
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Old 08-12-20, 05:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Mad Honk View Post
So today Indiana University is starting to test returning student who will be on campus this fall. They claim a 20 minute response time for results. I'm bewildered by this new test that is available for returning students but we can't get it for the general population as well. I'm thinking what they are testing for is not real cases of covid but perhaps something akin to antibody testing. And not something that will give accurate testing for the virus as active or inactive. 45,000 students expected to arrive over two week period, and I am more frightened than ever over the influx of students. We used to just lament the traffic problems and drunken parties, now it comes with potential viral infections as well. Smiles, MH
I seem to recall reading that it is a test for the virus. It's weakness (again, as I recall) is that it is prone to false positives, maybe 10% of the positives. Sounds to me like far better that the full test with its accurate results and 5 to 8 to 13 day waiting for the results. (24 hours for the results, the rest backlog and logistics.) As I've said on other threads. I see this as a war. This is a weapon that, while effective will bag some "friendlies". 45.000 students. You find the vast majority of the carriers right now while those student are still close by but you send a couple hundred home for unneeded quarantine. Sounds radically better that our usual approaches.

Ben
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Old 08-12-20, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
I live in an extremely rural area with a relatively low number of cases. I have little contact with other humanity, so my question is entirely academic: Was there any real expectation that the number of new cases and Covid deaths would trend to zero? Before the vaccines are implemented?
I think in January/February/Early March, there was the expectation that the USA would take actions to keep the virus from taking hold in the USA.

Then by mid March, it became obvious that someone in the USA had seriously dropped the ball. At the same time, China was getting their virus outbreak under control. Through the month of April, South Korea was also getting their outbreak under control, and chasing down leapfrogging hot spots.

At the same time, in late March and early April, New York was suffering from overwhelming their medical system. The USA had mostly shut down schools, and cases began to fall. While New York and New Jersey haven't eradicated the virus, they've got their numbers way down, and kept them down.

Early, it was unclear how much the virus spread would be impacted by the spring/summer. And, while we've had summer outbreaks, we still don't have any idea what lies ahead for the fall/winter.

By May, there was increasing pressure to "re-open" which much of the country did without fully planning to keep suppressing the virus. Then Memorial day, and the official end of the school year, and the virus went bonkers again.

I think there are signs that much of the country has passed a second peak. However, passing the peak isn't equivalent to eradicating the virus, we've got a long way to go, just as there is a push to reopen schools.

I'm from just outside a medium sized urban/suburban area. We seem to have lost control of the virus around Memorial Day, although as the county hasn't had a single death in months, I have to wonder how well it was under control earlier, or if we just had inadequate testing. I do think with rigorous use of masks, social distancing, and reduction of travel, that we could get the numbers of new cases back down to near zero locally, but it is unclear if anybody is willing to go that far.

And, I have to agree with the Governor that if we don't get the numbers further suppressed, schools will be a petri dish for an explosion of new cases. And, while the virus is currently spreading in the young population, we won't be able to protect the vulnerable.
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Old 08-12-20, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
I seem to recall reading that it is a test for the virus. It's weakness (again, as I recall) is that it is prone to false positives, maybe 10% of the positives. Sounds to me like far better that the full test with its accurate results and 5 to 8 to 13 day waiting for the results. (24 hours for the results, the rest backlog and logistics.) As I've said on other threads. I see this as a war. This is a weapon that, while effective will bag some "friendlies". 45.000 students. You find the vast majority of the carriers right now while those student are still close by but you send a couple hundred home for unneeded quarantine. Sounds radically better that our usual approaches.

Ben
We have the rapid test down here. Initially designed by Abbott, I think there are other companies who have gotten into rapid testing and small batch testing. The Abbott test is quick, but there have been questions about the accuracy.

I agree, false positives can be quarantined and retested. False negatives are a bit more of a problem. But, a 2 to 5 day wait for results also has significant downstream effects. And, even the tests with longer waits still have a potential for errors, or poor sample collection.

The rapid tests are not looking for antibodies in the hosts, but they may utilize antibodies in the test solution to probe for antigens (spikes?) in the sample.

Individual sequential testing like the Abbott test can help with small groups of people, but to test a whole school, one needs the equipment to do batches of testing.

There have been proposals to mix test results. So, one takes say all the samples from 10 or 100 individuals, mixes them together, and tests them at once. Then if positive, one goes back and identifies the infected individual with a second test. But, diluting an already very dilute virus sample brings about risks of reduced accuracy.

Also proposals of monitoring sewage as an early unobtrusive sentinel test of a population (followed by individual testing if a case, or several cases are identified).
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Old 08-12-20, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
I think in January/February/Early March, there was the expectation that the USA would take actions to keep the virus from taking hold in the USA.

Then by mid March, it became obvious that someone in the USA had seriously dropped the ball. At the same time, China was getting their virus outbreak under control. Through the month of April, South Korea was also getting their outbreak under control, and chasing down leapfrogging hot spots.

At the same time, in late March and early April, New York was suffering from overwhelming their medical system. The USA had mostly shut down schools, and cases began to fall. While New York and New Jersey haven't eradicated the virus, they've got their numbers way down, and kept them down.
...
And, I have to agree with the Governor that if we don't get the numbers further suppressed, schools will be a petri dish for an explosion of new cases. And, while the virus is currently spreading in the young population, we won't be able to protect the vulnerable.
If the"leadership" you were looking for was akin to the reports of Chinese authorities forcing elements of the population to quarantine, in other words, if Trump had directed all law enforcement to enforce the lockdown, he would have been labeled "Hitler" again.

The "governor" was responsible for sending Covid positive cases back to unprepared nursing homes, where we suffered the greatest number of casualties.

No matter what government official said what, the mainstream media has lost lots of credibility with about half the population, so disbelief has been prevalent. I don't see that as the president's fault. As late as the end of January, the CDC was saying that the American people had little to fear from the virus.

Lots of revisionist history hereabouts, in my opinion.
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Old 08-12-20, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
If the"leadership" you were looking for was akin to the reports of Chinese authorities forcing elements of the population to quarantine, in other words, if Trump had directed all law enforcement to enforce the lockdown, he would have been labeled "Hitler" again.

The "governor" was responsible for sending Covid positive cases back to unprepared nursing homes, where we suffered the greatest number of casualties.

No matter what government official said what, the mainstream media has lost lots of credibility with about half the population, so disbelief has been prevalent. I don't see that as the president's fault. As late as the end of January, the CDC was saying that the American people had little to fear from the virus.

Lots of revisionist history hereabouts, in my opinion.
The New York and New Jersey governors had no real plan for step-down care as patients were discharged from hospitals. And, incurred a massive death toll because of it.

On this side of the country, there has been more care with nursing homes, I think. No significant nursing home outbreaks in my county, and only a small number of nursing outbreaks around the state.

I have an acquaintance that is being moved into a nursing home right now, and they're very strict with admissions.

What I mentioned with the Governor is Kate Brown's guidelines for reopening schools which includes less than 10 new documented cases per 100,000 population per week in the county, and < 5% positive tests.

And, I assume any increase in community spread would cause immediately sending the kids home.

My county has a population of 382,000. We're currently averaging about 10 cases a day or about 70 cases a week. We need to get the numbers down to half that, 5 cases a day, or about 35 a week to reopen schools.

That is still higher numbers than we had documented up until Memorial Day. However, a lot has changed since then.

Our last local death (3 total) was on May 30 (69 reported cases). Since then we've had over 500 more cases reported and no deaths in nearly 2 1/2 months. This indicates to me that we had a lot more undetected cases in March/April/May. And, we don't know if the numbers are up, down, or stable. Or, perhaps we are just better at protecting the vulnerable.

I just hope people will stop moving around so much this fall, practice social distancing, and case numbers will drop further.
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Old 08-13-20, 07:20 AM
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Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
If the"leadership" you were looking for was akin to the reports of Chinese authorities forcing elements of the population to quarantine, in other words, if Trump had directed all law enforcement to enforce the lockdown, he would have been labeled "Hitler" again.

The "governor" was responsible for sending Covid positive cases back to unprepared nursing homes, where we suffered the greatest number of casualties.

No matter what government official said what, the mainstream media has lost lots of credibility with about half the population, so disbelief has been prevalent. I don't see that as the president's fault. As late as the end of January, the CDC was saying that the American people had little to fear from the virus.

Lots of revisionist history hereabouts, in my opinion.
Hah hah hah hah. That's the rest of the developed world laughing at how deluded the US is.
If the idiot in charge had have said "This is serious, take it seriously, socially distance etc etc" instead of it's "just a little flu" and "it'll just go away" you wouldn't be nose deep in doo doo.
As for half the population not believing mainstream media, maybe that might have something to do with Mister "Fake News" himself?
I guess the CDC in late January weren't expecting that the leader of their country would be moronic enough to actively try to disrupt efforts to combat a pandemic in order to improve his electoral chances, so they thought it could be controlled like it was in other countries.
To say it's not the presidents fault it about as revisionist as you can get...
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Old 08-13-20, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
I hope a viable, easily-produced "home" test kit gets created in mass numbers, soon. Without it, without simple and quick verification at home, I suspect that any test requiring lab involvement will simply be overwhelmed when it comes to actually implementing the sheer number of tests required in order to matter a damn.
I had to get tested to see a dentist....basically a plastic zip tie all the way to the back of your sinus cavity that needed to swish around for 10 seconds.

I suspect "easy" and "viable" and "at home" isn't going to be the case for a relatively "long time" in the course of this pandemic.
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Old 08-13-20, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
If the"leadership" you were looking for was akin to the reports of Chinese authorities forcing elements of the population to quarantine, in other words, if Trump had directed all law enforcement to enforce the lockdown, he would have been labeled "Hitler" again.

The "governor" was responsible for sending Covid positive cases back to unprepared nursing homes, where we suffered the greatest number of casualties.

No matter what government official said what, the mainstream media has lost lots of credibility with about half the population, so disbelief has been prevalent. I don't see that as the president's fault. As late as the end of January, the CDC was saying that the American people had little to fear from the virus.

Lots of revisionist history hereabouts, in my opinion.
What should have happened - late January, the pres should have authorized his "emergency manager" (I forget what this post was called, but every pres since Geo, W has, by law, been required to start his term with that "emergency manager" appointed and in place (I believe Trump appointed a Navy admiral who brought his staff along) and the outgoing pres and staff had to brief the incoming in one-on-one sessions so there was continuity in national emergency preparedness. All that happened.

So all was good, until out pres fired the manager. His staff left with him. (I tried to go back and look up who that person was and what his title was, but the list of those fired by Trump is nearly as long as the list of my university's graduating seniors. I gave up.)

Back to our pres' handling of this national emergency - he needed to sit down with this manager 7 months ago and say "watch this. You have the power of the administration to do what is needed." Manager goes to FDA and says, "we need a working test now, in big numbers. If you have to bypass 'procedure', so be it. We will have your back. If a private firm comes up with something, approve it; at least temporarily." He goes to the CDC wit the same message "Get a working test out there. Put your A team on it. B team can be going for a better test. We need something out there in big numbers in 3 weeks. Borrow from China or Korea if you have to." Also set up a center for contact tracing.

None of that is rocket science. It just takes one person who can assume ultimate responsibility and is given the ultimate authority. The whole point of that "emergency manager" is to have exactly that. And an admiral (or general) is exactly the person you want - someone who can run the show and "get" that he doesn't know everything - that his job is to have people under him who do or can find those people. (Think Dwight Eisenhower and D-Day.) The man who can make the big decisions that involve life and death.

Our pres fired that man and did nothing to replace him. When this started, a) he was clueless (I'll forgive him for that; this was all new) and b) he did absolutely nothing to put one good, responsible person in charge and give him full both responsibility and authority. In fact, he has undermined everybody under him at every turn.

Almost every developed country out there has done far, far better job at simply handling this epidemic like it was a real national emergency and required attention. Out pres has flunked that simple piece completely.

Ben
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Old 08-13-20, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
What should have happened - late January, the pres should have authorized his "emergency manager" (I forget what this post was called, but every pres since Geo, W has, by law, been required to start his term with that "emergency manager" appointed and in place (I believe Trump appointed a Navy admiral who brought his staff along) and the outgoing pres and staff had to brief the incoming in one-on-one sessions so there was continuity in national emergency preparedness. All that happened.

So all was good, until out pres fired the manager. His staff left with him.
Was that FEMA? Of course we also have the CDC, FDA, HHS, etc. A lot of fingers in the pot.

Of course, Trump created a new position, "Senior Advisor to the President", and like everything else, didn't bother to get the most competent person in the position. Nepotism.

Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
Back to our pres' handling of this national emergency - he needed to sit down with this manager 7 months ago and say "watch this. You have the power of the administration to do what is needed." Manager goes to FDA and says, "we need a working test now, in big numbers. If you have to bypass 'procedure', so be it. We will have your back. If a private firm comes up with something, approve it; at least temporarily." He goes to the CDC wit the same message "Get a working test out there. Put your A team on it. B team can be going for a better test. We need something out there in big numbers in 3 weeks. Borrow from China or Korea if you have to." Also set up a center for contact tracing.
They should have had someone with the nose to the ground and been on top of it on January 1 when the virus was officially announced.

Bird flu has never had significant person to person transmission, but has certainly been a cause for concern from time to time.

As soon as COVID was confirmed as having not only animal to person transmission, but also person to person transmission, it should have been an immediate emergency.

We did have a "test" reasonably early, but the CDC put all its eggs into the same basket. And, a contaminated batch of test reagents, and it all came crashing down.

Inadequate testing of travellers. Inadequate monitoring of those in contact with high risk patients. No community surveillance testing. No testing of patients with severe pneumonia.

And, no plans for step-down care discharging from hospitals.

Somehow with a full century of planning for a pandemic since 1918, we found ourselves with the pants down and a PRESIDENT as well as VP who were entirely unprepared to either take charge, or get people in place to take charge. Of course, Trump did get some golf games in during January/February/March.
Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
Almost every developed country out there has done far, far better job at simply handling this epidemic like it was a real national emergency and required attention. Out pres has flunked that simple piece completely.

Ben
I won't give Europe a free pass. They had a horrendous early spike in cases and may have exported many cases to the USA (probably getting some cases from us too).

Looking at mortality rate:
UK: Population: 67 Million, Covid Mortality: 46,791 (1 in 1,431)
Spain: Population: 47 Million, Covid Mortality: 28,605 (1 in 1,643)
Italy: Population: 60 Million, Covid Mortality: 35,231 (1 in 1,703)
Sweden: Population: 10.23 Million, Covid Mortality: 5,776 (1 in 1,771)
USA: Population: 328 Million, Covid Mortality: 166,750 (1 in 1,967)
France: Population: 67 Million, Covid Mortality: 30,375 (1 in 2,206)
Canada: Population: 37.6 Million, Covid Mortality: 9,059 (1 in 4,150)
Germany: Population: 83 Million, Covid Mortality: 9,217 (1 in 9,005)
Australia: Population: 25 Million, Covid Mortality: 361 (1 in 69,252)
Japan: Population: 126.5 Million, Covid Mortality: 1,073 (1 in 117,894)
South Korea: Population: 51.6 Million, Covid Mortality: 305 (1 in 169,180)
New Zealand: Population: 4.9 Million, Covid Mortality: 22 (1 in 222,091)
China: Population: 1.393 Billion, Covid Mortality: 4,699 (1 in 296,446)
Vietnam: Population: 95.5 Million, Covid Mortality: 20 (1 in 4,775,000)

Europe was hit HARD, mostly early. Most of the countries have their new cases down, while the USA doesn't. But, one can't just blanket put the USA as the bottom of the pack.

The problem with the USA is that our outbreak is still nowhere near being under control, and we're in a bad place entering fall.
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Old 08-13-20, 03:43 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Was that FEMA? Of course we also have the CDC, FDA, HHS, etc. A lot of fingers in the pot.

Of course, Trump created a new position, "Senior Advisor to the President", and like everything else, didn't bother to get the most competent person in the position. Nepotism.

They should have had someone with the nose to the ground and been on top of it on January 1 when the virus was officially announced.

Bird flu has never had significant person to person transmission, but has certainly been a cause for concern from time to time.

As soon as COVID was confirmed as having not only animal to person transmission, but also person to person transmission, it should have been an immediate emergency.

We did have a "test" reasonably early, but the CDC put all its eggs into the same basket. And, a contaminated batch of test reagents, and it all came crashing down.

Inadequate testing of travellers. Inadequate monitoring of those in contact with high risk patients. No community surveillance testing. No testing of patients with severe pneumonia.

And, no plans for step-down care discharging from hospitals.

Somehow with a full century of planning for a pandemic since 1918, we found ourselves with the pants down and a PRESIDENT as well as VP who were entirely unprepared to either take charge, or get people in place to take charge. Of course, Trump did get some golf games in during January/February/March.

I won't give Europe a free pass. They had a horrendous early spike in cases and may have exported many cases to the USA (probably getting some cases from us too).

Looking at mortality rate:
UK: Population: 67 Million, Covid Mortality: 46,791 (1 in 1,431)
Spain: Population: 47 Million, Covid Mortality: 28,605 (1 in 1,643)
Italy: Population: 60 Million, Covid Mortality: 35,231 (1 in 1,703)
Sweden: Population: 10.23 Million, Covid Mortality: 5,776 (1 in 1,771)
USA: Population: 328 Million, Covid Mortality: 166,750 (1 in 1,967)
France: Population: 67 Million, Covid Mortality: 30,375 (1 in 2,206)
Canada: Population: 37.6 Million, Covid Mortality: 9,059 (1 in 4,150)
Germany: Population: 83 Million, Covid Mortality: 9,217 (1 in 9,005)
Australia: Population: 25 Million, Covid Mortality: 361 (1 in 69,252)
Japan: Population: 126.5 Million, Covid Mortality: 1,073 (1 in 117,894)
South Korea: Population: 51.6 Million, Covid Mortality: 305 (1 in 169,180)
New Zealand: Population: 4.9 Million, Covid Mortality: 22 (1 in 222,091)
China: Population: 1.393 Billion, Covid Mortality: 4,699 (1 in 296,446)
Vietnam: Population: 95.5 Million, Covid Mortality: 20 (1 in 4,775,000)

Europe was hit HARD, mostly early. Most of the countries have their new cases down, while the USA doesn't. But, one can't just blanket put the USA as the bottom of the pack.

The problem with the USA is that our outbreak is still nowhere near being under control, and we're in a bad place entering fall.
Summarized succinctly:

The USA leadership declared it wouldn't and couldn't possibly happen here, was dead wrong...and has done as little as possible for as long as possible for stock prices....and then pat themselves on the back for it....and wonder of wonders it has blown up in their faces, now in a continuing attempt to do nothing, they're trying to find someone else to blame.
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Old 08-21-20, 05:25 PM
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So a quick update for here at IU. Testing around 3000 students per day with a rate of 1% infections or suspected infections. Those students get to quarantine in a single dormitory for two weeks and be tested during the quarantine. Others are sent home to quarantine. 100 students face suspension for going to a party the first day of campus being open. Employees are told if they are caught without a mask they can be fired, it is a result of statewide mask requirements, but a sound decision. I am in week 21 of isolation and seem to be doing well, as it is the new normal for me. The virus and infection however is not a thing that will magically just go away. Smiles, MH
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Old 08-21-20, 06:03 PM
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On and on about "testing"... Shouldn't it be about stopping people from dying? What does "testing" actually do? If you test positive what happens next? No one talks about this.
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Old 08-21-20, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Wileyone View Post
On and on about "testing"... Shouldn't it be about stopping people from dying? What does "testing" actually do? If you test positive what happens next? No one talks about this.

Uh...literally everyone has for 6 months been talking about this. Sorry you're out of the loop.
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Old 08-21-20, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti View Post
Uh...literally everyone has for 6 months been talking about this. Sorry you're out of the loop.
How's it been working so far? 175,000 dead.
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Old 08-21-20, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Wileyone View Post
How's it been working so far? 175,000 dead.
Thank the GOP non-leadership for the last 6 months. That right there is the difference between our awful numbers, and literally the rest of the civilized world. Like I said 8 days ago:

Summarized succinctly:

The USA leadership declared, repeatedly, that it wouldn't and couldn't possibly happen here, was dead wrong...and has done as little as possible for as long as possible for stock prices....and then pat themselves on the back for it....and wonder of wonders it has blown up in their faces, now in a continuing attempt to do nothing, they're trying to find someone else to blame.
So yes the numbers are tragic and awful...not because of medical advice not being sound...but because people knowingly defy and deny sound medical advice.
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Old 08-21-20, 08:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Wileyone View Post
On and on about "testing"... Shouldn't it be about stopping people from dying? What does "testing" actually do? If you test positive what happens next? No one talks about this.
Right ... testing followed by contact tracing could have helped, but too many folks can’t even buy into the idea of not socializing to slow down community spread.
contact tracing is probably happening in some areas where local government helps. More talk than action without any federal support I’m afraid.

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