Sculptor7

This probably belongs on the road racing forum but those guys kind of scare me. My thought is why
invariably a rider can keep out ahead of the peloton for hours and then lose it in the last few minutes.
Is there something psychological about having the pack bear down on you that saps your drive?

It must be more than physical stamina; there just does not seem to be a good reason other than
psychological.

JerrySTL

For someone like Jens, it's mostly physical. Those guys in the peloton have been taking it relatively easy drafting while the few guys in the breakaway have been each working hard. If it's a sprint finish, the sprinter's teams will start really ramping up the speed towards the end and different teams will take turns at the front to catch the breakaway. Towards the end riders will run themselves into the ground where they have to peel off allowing the next guy on the team to take a pull. Those speeds can be frightening.

Also if the riders have radios, the team cars can pretty well dictate what it will take to catch the leaders.

MikeD1

What he said. Jens didn't burn out or lose power. The pack just has so much more horsepower available at that point. All the teams that have sprinters that can contend for 1st place will lay it all out to get their man in a position to win. None of the teams are interested in 2nd place . . . There is no way that the Trek team could effectively "block" the rest of the teams from catching Jens. I sure would have loved to see him make it though . . .

qcpmsame 

As much as Jens pulls off a breakaway I doubt it deflates him, he is successful a lot, its just the odds are against him for the reason's stated previously. The Peleton or even a chase group had the advantage of the draft from the pace line and working together, Jens is out pulling the entire load. He has said he just enjoys puling away and being our front showing his team/sponsor's colors, and giving the big names fits. I am with Mike, I'd love for him to have pulled it off in the Pro Challenge, at least he is still Jens and is still giving it everything he has all the time.

Bill

Barrettscv 

Tony Martin, current world time trial champion, won the 9th stage of this year's TDF with a brake away. A very rare accomplishment.
Martin had a 3 minute lead with 30km left. He maintained a 30 mph pace as a solo leader.

Tony Gallopin takes yellow as Tony Martin wins stage 9 of the 2014 Tour de France - VeloNews.com

Bandera

It's bike racing, sometimes the long solo from the break works, most often not.

It takes a rider like Jens to win like this:

Jens Voigt Wins Stage 4 at USA Pro Challenge, Van Garderen Back in Lead | Bicycling Magazine

or this:

SoCalCycling.com Report & Results: Amgen Tour of California: Jens Voight Solos to Victory - SoCalCycling.com - Southern California, Cycling, Cycling News, Amgen Tour of California, Bicycle Racing, Fun Rides, Cycling Event Schedules, Mountain Biking,

chasm54

It's very little to do with psychology. The peloton has a massive advantage, because they can share the work. The solo breakaway rider has to break the wind on his own. When you consider that drafting might cut the power you have to put out by 25%, it becomes clear that if the peloton gets its act together, and gets organised to chase you down, they're going to catch you nearly every time.

Why is it worth trying? Well, it sometimes works. Sometimes the infighting between the teams prevents an organised chase developing until it's too late. Sometimes they just mistime it. Sometimes the breakaway artist has a little more in hand than anyone suspects. And every time, the guy in the break is getting TV coverage for his team and their sponsors, which is always welcome. As far as Jens is concerned, it's just what he does. He has no sprint, he's not a top climber, he just has a huge engine, so he tries to make the most of it.

And incidentally, the road racing forum isn't really the place for this, the "pro racing for the fans" is the place. Altogether less scary than us racers and ex-racers, old or otherwise...