Cycle Industry’s Collapse After Bike Boom Ends This Year, Say Analysts
08-12-23, 09:41 AM
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Cycle Industry’s Collapse After Bike Boom Ends This Year, Say Analysts
.
..from Forbes.
..from Forbes.
According to an analysis by Yahoo in Taiwan, the bicycle industry is facing a “super cold winter” of falling demand. Asian suppliers of cycles and cycle components have yet to recover from the inevitable market crash that followed the Covid bike boom and still carry high inventory levels.
.
The revenue in the first half of the year for Japan’s Shimano, the world’s largest manufacturer of cycle transmission systems, decreased by about 13% year-on-year, with projections of an annual decrease of 28%.
...SRAM, the world’s second-largest shifting system manufacturer, reported on August 9 that its Taichung, Taiwan, factory would lay off workers, a shock to the globalized industry.
Guimeng, the world’s largest supplier of cycle chains, has seen its revenue in the first half of the year decrease by 34%.
...As well as selling under its own brand name Giant also makes complete bikes for brands such as Scott and Colnago. Giant’s half-year European product sales were down 12%, while US sales fell by 44%. (E-bike sales provided 35% of Giant’s half-year revenues.)
.
The revenue in the first half of the year for Japan’s Shimano, the world’s largest manufacturer of cycle transmission systems, decreased by about 13% year-on-year, with projections of an annual decrease of 28%.
...SRAM, the world’s second-largest shifting system manufacturer, reported on August 9 that its Taichung, Taiwan, factory would lay off workers, a shock to the globalized industry.
Guimeng, the world’s largest supplier of cycle chains, has seen its revenue in the first half of the year decrease by 34%.
...As well as selling under its own brand name Giant also makes complete bikes for brands such as Scott and Colnago. Giant’s half-year European product sales were down 12%, while US sales fell by 44%. (E-bike sales provided 35% of Giant’s half-year revenues.)
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08-12-23, 09:54 AM
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Thank god. I need a deal on Campagnolo! If there is a glut.
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Vintage, modern, e-road. It is a big cycling universe.
Vintage, modern, e-road. It is a big cycling universe.
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08-12-23, 10:01 AM
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"Industry analysts believe 2023 will be a trough year, with sales recovering through 2024 and beyond and at a more sustainable level than the heights of the Covid bike boom."
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08-12-23, 10:55 AM
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Only looking to pounce, if the good parts & accessory tech are severely underpriced.
chains, cranks, cassettes, hubs, & lights.
chains, cranks, cassettes, hubs, & lights.
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-Oh Hey!
-Oh Hey!
08-12-23, 11:12 AM
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08-12-23, 11:36 AM
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08-12-23, 01:57 PM
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When you have $7000 bikes spec'd with heavy basic sram rival axs, yeah I am not surprised to hear there is a glut of product compared to interest.
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08-12-23, 11:35 PM
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I will be on the hunt for more shimano dura ace older components. Probably there will be some deals to be made regarding Shimano new high end stuff. Interesting to know that Giant makes bikes for Scott and Colnago.
08-13-23, 01:36 AM
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Ibis OSO MSRP: $10,999.00
On sale: $7,198.94 (Jenson USA)
Good enough for ya?!!!!
On sale: $7,198.94 (Jenson USA)
Good enough for ya?!!!!
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08-13-23, 11:56 AM
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Numbers like 20% or 34% down from Covid sales are irrelevant at the retail level. The glut (or shortage) will work it's way through the pipeline without much effect at the LBSs. Anyone whose business model relies on bike sales for profits, is doing it wrong (and won't be doing it for long). But what do I know, I am still a newbie a few months short of 1/2 a century in this racket...
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08-13-23, 12:09 PM
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08-14-23, 01:06 PM
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In my neck of the woods, e-bikes seem to be the only segment doing well. Everything else is way down.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
08-14-23, 02:45 PM
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Don't see cycling industry fade away in developing countries, but it may in developed countries like US, UK, Canada, or Australia. It's just countries' economics and people's mentalities.
Why cook a homemade meal and clean the kitchen when you can grab the same from a fast-food drive-thru and dispose of the takeout containers in the trash bin? Isn't it?
In my neck of the woods, e-bikes seem to be the only segment doing well. Everything else is way down.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
08-14-23, 03:18 PM
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In my neck of the woods, e-bikes seem to be the only segment doing well. Everything else is way down.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
08-14-23, 03:22 PM
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In my neck of the woods, e-bikes seem to be the only segment doing well. Everything else is way down.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
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08-15-23, 07:01 PM
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The bike industry booms and busts. But the last four years have been really off the rails, it’s obvious to anyone now. It’s hardly just bikes either
08-16-23, 07:11 AM
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The word "collapse" is so ugly. I think the business would normally call it a "retreat" or "realignment." It's not like the big factories are going under. Giant and the other contract manufacturing companies are still going to be building bikes for almost every bike company. I imagine there are at least a few bicycle marketing companies that are going to have problems staying in business.
08-16-23, 09:14 AM
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08-16-23, 10:45 AM
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Well, maybe a cold winter coming, but a quick review of Shimano shows a couple of relevant factors to consider...
looking at earnings per share, 2021 was an *** 83% *** jump over 2020. That's followed by a 12% jump in the next Y-o-Y eps of 12%. In two years, eps doubled.
So, if 2023 drops 40% (street estimates), they're still doing pretty damned well. The 2024 and 2025 estimates are higher, so Shimano is expected to maintain earnings significantly above 2020 levels. Far from alaming.
The 2020 eps was 22% higher than 2019.
I don't think anyone at this big (biggest?) bike component maker is going to miss a single meal.
Giant manufacturing shows a very similar profile. 2023 earnings are forecast to be above both 2018 and 2019.
This illustrates that it's tough, as a reporter, to get attention without hyperbole.
looking at earnings per share, 2021 was an *** 83% *** jump over 2020. That's followed by a 12% jump in the next Y-o-Y eps of 12%. In two years, eps doubled.
So, if 2023 drops 40% (street estimates), they're still doing pretty damned well. The 2024 and 2025 estimates are higher, so Shimano is expected to maintain earnings significantly above 2020 levels. Far from alaming.
The 2020 eps was 22% higher than 2019.
I don't think anyone at this big (biggest?) bike component maker is going to miss a single meal.
Giant manufacturing shows a very similar profile. 2023 earnings are forecast to be above both 2018 and 2019.
This illustrates that it's tough, as a reporter, to get attention without hyperbole.