Living car free, 5 year predictions
#1601
Sophomoric Member
I wouldn't be surprised if all (driverless) cars are outfitted with servers/routers that function as an internet relay system between vehicles. Really, the internet was designed as a protocol for automatically rerouting signals whenever one or more servers would go offline. With vehicles in a tunnel or elsewhere, the ones that can get a good signal from an antenna should be able to relay that signal to other vehicles that can't. Basically the cars would work as extensions and amplifiers of the antennas.
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#1602
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I don't think it will go quite like that myself. With the internet you have a gateway server at a specific IP address that forwards your message to its destination. But with driverless cars intercommunicating you have a network where the participants keep changing and the communication is with other cars in your immediate area rather than a specific gateway at a remote location. Internet-style routing just won't work because your car won't know the address of local vehicles and it would be too slow to communicate with them individually anyway. So I think it will be more of a situation where each car broadcasts information about its position/direction/speed continually. Other cars in the area receive these broadcast messages and are thus informed.
It's not a simple matter to avoid having broadcasts that stomp on each other. But there's actually already a IEEE standard for this that will probably apply well to driverless cars (802.11p). But here too, you have security concerns with people trying to hack the car network. The timing requirements for exchange of data at high speed as cars zoom around coming into and out of range don't facilitate traditional authentication techniques. So there may be all kinds of neat traffic control/optimization techniques that we'll simply shy away from for fear of hacking.
An intrusion detection system against malicious attacks on the communication network of driverless cars - IEEE Conference Publication
It's not a simple matter to avoid having broadcasts that stomp on each other. But there's actually already a IEEE standard for this that will probably apply well to driverless cars (802.11p). But here too, you have security concerns with people trying to hack the car network. The timing requirements for exchange of data at high speed as cars zoom around coming into and out of range don't facilitate traditional authentication techniques. So there may be all kinds of neat traffic control/optimization techniques that we'll simply shy away from for fear of hacking.
An intrusion detection system against malicious attacks on the communication network of driverless cars - IEEE Conference Publication
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#1603
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Yes. The communication is with vehicles that are all within only a few hundred meters. For the most part it doesn't matter what else is beyond that distance.
Last edited by Walter S; 02-04-18 at 04:14 AM.
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Based on human history I can pretty much assure everyone that every problem we have imagined, and more, have long since been imagined by the people who ALREADY HAVE WORKING AI CARS ON THE ROAD, and have for hundreds of thousands of miles.
Pretty long way to bashing something with a rock to being able to open a person's chest, remove the heart, and replace it with another. Think maybe there were a few issues to resolve? Nowadays we have surgeons operating remotely via the internet. No biggie.
We seem not to grasp the things we have proven able to do.
As one poster noted, we are using tiny computers made by many different corporations over a span of years and all able to communicate, surf the web (Just think about that---we could never have a billion different computers in a hundred different languages if two hundred different countries all communicate---while in cars" we say while using our cell phones to do just that ... to such a degree that it as actually a hazard we all complain about. Cognizant disconnect, much?)
Are there problems? Difficulties and unresolved issue, to be sure. Is it complicated? People wouldn't be spending billions and years io it if it were simple.
But based on what we have done in just the past few years --DONE--not imagined or are aware of or denied---as Walter notes, the main problems are commercial and social.
People either want, or don't want, or are neutral regarding AI cars .... and all these tens of thousands of words wasted in a supposed 'examination" of the topic is really just a poll with A,B, or C.
Pretty long way to bashing something with a rock to being able to open a person's chest, remove the heart, and replace it with another. Think maybe there were a few issues to resolve? Nowadays we have surgeons operating remotely via the internet. No biggie.
We seem not to grasp the things we have proven able to do.
As one poster noted, we are using tiny computers made by many different corporations over a span of years and all able to communicate, surf the web (Just think about that---we could never have a billion different computers in a hundred different languages if two hundred different countries all communicate---while in cars" we say while using our cell phones to do just that ... to such a degree that it as actually a hazard we all complain about. Cognizant disconnect, much?)
Are there problems? Difficulties and unresolved issue, to be sure. Is it complicated? People wouldn't be spending billions and years io it if it were simple.
But based on what we have done in just the past few years --DONE--not imagined or are aware of or denied---as Walter notes, the main problems are commercial and social.
People either want, or don't want, or are neutral regarding AI cars .... and all these tens of thousands of words wasted in a supposed 'examination" of the topic is really just a poll with A,B, or C.
#1605
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Based on human history I can pretty much assure everyone that every problem we have imagined, and more, have long since been imagined by the people who ALREADY HAVE WORKING AI CARS ON THE ROAD, and have for hundreds of thousands of miles.
Pretty long way to bashing something with a rock to being able to open a person's chest, remove the heart, and replace it with another. Think maybe there were a few issues to resolve? Nowadays we have surgeons operating remotely via the internet. No biggie.
We seem not to grasp the things we have proven able to do.
As one poster noted, we are using tiny computers made by many different corporations over a span of years and all able to communicate, surf the web (Just think about that---we could never have a billion different computers in a hundred different languages if two hundred different countries all communicate---while in cars" we say while using our cell phones to do just that ... to such a degree that it as actually a hazard we all complain about. Cognizant disconnect, much?)
Are there problems? Difficulties and unresolved issue, to be sure. Is it complicated? People wouldn't be spending billions and years io it if it were simple.
But based on what we have done in just the past few years --DONE--not imagined or are aware of or denied---as Walter notes, the main problems are commercial and social.
People either want, or don't want, or are neutral regarding AI cars .... and all these tens of thousands of words wasted in a supposed 'examination" of the topic is really just a poll with A,B, or C.
Pretty long way to bashing something with a rock to being able to open a person's chest, remove the heart, and replace it with another. Think maybe there were a few issues to resolve? Nowadays we have surgeons operating remotely via the internet. No biggie.
We seem not to grasp the things we have proven able to do.
As one poster noted, we are using tiny computers made by many different corporations over a span of years and all able to communicate, surf the web (Just think about that---we could never have a billion different computers in a hundred different languages if two hundred different countries all communicate---while in cars" we say while using our cell phones to do just that ... to such a degree that it as actually a hazard we all complain about. Cognizant disconnect, much?)
Are there problems? Difficulties and unresolved issue, to be sure. Is it complicated? People wouldn't be spending billions and years io it if it were simple.
But based on what we have done in just the past few years --DONE--not imagined or are aware of or denied---as Walter notes, the main problems are commercial and social.
People either want, or don't want, or are neutral regarding AI cars .... and all these tens of thousands of words wasted in a supposed 'examination" of the topic is really just a poll with A,B, or C.
OTOH in the case of driverless cars people are not spending huge sums of money on the idea for no good reason. Billionaires have lots of money for a reason and they invariably want their billions to grow and won't casually invest heavily without compelling proof-of-concept. Driverless will not only happen, it's already happening in environments that are more controlled than the public road network. Getting from where they are now to that is a matter of additional refinement to existing technology and the economies of scale that make it affordable. Inevitable IMO.
I'm personally a software engineer since the 1970s with lots of experience developing microprocessor controlled embedded systems. Driverless cars are certainly among the most complex of those but the issues are dropping away quickly. When I look at the state of the technology today, I see technology that is well beyond a prototype, not ready for deployment, but definitely headed that way.
#1606
Prefers Cicero
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Personally I'm not one to be especially optimistic about solving arbitrary technical problems based on doing amazing things in the past. Each problem has its own unique characteristics. Some problems might seem at least achievable but in fact have no practical solution because of inherent complexities, the laws of physics, etc.
OTOH in the case of driverless cars people are not spending huge sums of money on the idea for no good reason. Billionaires have lots of money for a reason and they invariably want their billions to grow and won't casually invest heavily without compelling proof-of-concept. Driverless will not only happen, it's already happening in environments that are more controlled than the public road network. Getting from where they are now to that is a matter of additional refinement to existing technology and the economies of scale that make it affordable. Inevitable IMO.
I'm personally a software engineer since the 1970s with lots of experience developing microprocessor controlled embedded systems. Driverless cars are certainly among the most complex of those but the issues are dropping away quickly. When I look at the state of the technology today, I see technology that is well beyond a prototype, not ready for deployment, but definitely headed that way.
OTOH in the case of driverless cars people are not spending huge sums of money on the idea for no good reason. Billionaires have lots of money for a reason and they invariably want their billions to grow and won't casually invest heavily without compelling proof-of-concept. Driverless will not only happen, it's already happening in environments that are more controlled than the public road network. Getting from where they are now to that is a matter of additional refinement to existing technology and the economies of scale that make it affordable. Inevitable IMO.
I'm personally a software engineer since the 1970s with lots of experience developing microprocessor controlled embedded systems. Driverless cars are certainly among the most complex of those but the issues are dropping away quickly. When I look at the state of the technology today, I see technology that is well beyond a prototype, not ready for deployment, but definitely headed that way.
And most important to us northerners, will there still be road hockey?
#1607
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How will all this affect living car free? As cyclists will we be safer, or will there be another round of attempts to get us off the road? Will we be required to plug into the system with transponders as suggested earlier? Will people drive less because there is less need to own a car, or drive more because it is easier and less stressful?
And most important to us northerners, will there still be road hockey?
And most important to us northerners, will there still be road hockey?
I'm not real optimistic on the impact to LCF. Since ride sharing will bring down the cost of using driverless cars there will probably be a lot of that. You might even be able to own your own car but still let it leave the house and go earn you some cash while you don't need to go somewhere. Rather than sitting at home in somebody's driveway then, the cars are always out on the road consuming a footprint in the available space for motorized traffic (assuming demand of course). If driverless is cheap per mile and available within minutes or less where you can for example summon a car when you get into the checkout at the grocery store, the total amount of traffic out there could go up a lot. That won't have a nice effect for LCF.
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I've met so many liars who defend their lies by demanding proof when you suspect them of lying. All I said is that I suspect people of being biased against driverless cars and allowing their bias to influence their analysis, but I don't need to prove it to make it true. If it's true and people are lying about it, it is still true. It's that simple.
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It's ironic that you think I'm biased against the technology with respect to this particular point where I'm arguing that the technology exists already (intercar communication) and you're trying to figure out how to make it work.
As to self driving in general, yes I continue to believe that its adoption on public roads will be much slower than most of the hype I see on the subject. The problems with self driving cars have very little to do with whether or not they could intercommunicate. THAT problem is easy and there's already a formal IEEE standard for it in place (802.11p) (the "p" is for specific ammendments made for intercar communication).
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I'm sure the road signs will broadcast their message on a designated frequency that will ensure the cars get the message, and if they re-broadcast and amplify it, then the message should filter back through the traffic the way brake lights filter back as drivers see braking in front of them and respond in kind.
#1612
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Pedestrians have the right of way but won't walk willy nilly into a busy intersection for fear that all but the most cautious driver might wipe them out. But once pedestrians observe and develop confidence in the consistently attentive driverless car will they care at all about stepping into traffic? After all if your trajectory has you steadily approaching the road driverless cars will slow down and emergency-stop as necessary to avoid you. Why worry?
As for LCF .... no real impact. People won't ride bikes then for the same reason the won't now--it is work. Plus it is slow and dirty. Plus, for the uninitiated and un-dedicated it is unreliable.
But mostly because it is work.
I can go to my Honda any time, even after it has sat for nine months, and drive away just like I parked it ten minutes ago.
I had a flat on my ride this morning. Trust me, people want to get in and drive off. They do Not want to stop on the side of the road and change a tube.
Plus, people don't like to sweat.
What I expect to see is a growth in electric-assist bikes and a variety of scooters.
Eventually I also expect to see cars like the Helio for personal transport, and a variety of hybrid micro-minivans. Cars will become less a symbol of status for the masses (and more so for the wealthy) and practicality will win the day.
Most people will own or more likely rent driverless cars. More transit will be from rail hubs, because cars will be available at both ends, and the big issues caused by downtown parking will be eliminated because commuters can send their cars away to the local recharge/upkeep storage facility, and order up a new one at the end of the day. (I hope.)
Fleets of citicars like the Helio or scooters for places where the weather permits could also be available on demand,
for lower-cost vehicle rental for people going to lunch or wanting a quick lift across town. (though the "scooters" might be trikes with windshields and plastic bubbles--and autopilots.)
But LCF? So long as the bicycle is a human powered device No. People don't want to spend their energy that way ... or they would already be riding.
We live in a world where people will circle the parking lot three times to find a place to park closer to the entrance of the gym ... and not just when it is raining, Every time. I used to go to the gym daily, I saw it.
Those are not people who want to ride bikes for transport.
#1613
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We live in a world where people will circle the parking lot three times to find a place to park closer to the entrance of the gym ... and not just when it is raining, Every time. I used to go to the gym daily, I saw it.
Those are not people who want to ride bikes for transport.
Those are not people who want to ride bikes for transport.
When people get used to using driverless ride-sharing services all the time, it will force them to think about time in a different way. They will know more-or-less how long it takes to catch a ride and get to a destination. As the software/tracking of prospective rides gets better, it will be easier to coordinate short walks with rides in a way that is more time-efficient. I meet many people who are already skilled with using transit apps in this way, but I've yet to master the art of real-time transit 'surfing' because I have a pretty old phone that isn't compatible with many apps and I don't like downloading them anyway, because they use up battery life faster.
Anyway, to sum up, the exciting thing about driverless cars/rides is how they will alter the standard approach to time/travel management. Instead of mindlessly going through the routine of getting your car, driving it to your destination, parking it, and walking from the parking spot to the door; you can put your creativity to use in more ways than just driving around a parking lot hunting for the best spot.(even if you're not car-free)
#1614
Prefers Cicero
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...I've yet to master the art of real-time transit 'surfing' because I have a pretty old phone that isn't compatible with many apps and I don't like downloading them anyway, because they use up battery life faster.
Anyway, to sum up, the exciting thing about driverless cars/rides is how they will alter the standard approach to time/travel management. Instead of mindlessly going through the routine of getting your car, driving it to your destination, parking it, and walking from the parking spot to the door; you can put your creativity to use in more ways than just driving around a parking lot hunting for the best spot.(even if you're not car-free)
Anyway, to sum up, the exciting thing about driverless cars/rides is how they will alter the standard approach to time/travel management. Instead of mindlessly going through the routine of getting your car, driving it to your destination, parking it, and walking from the parking spot to the door; you can put your creativity to use in more ways than just driving around a parking lot hunting for the best spot.(even if you're not car-free)
#1615
Sophomoric Member
I don't think anybody has a delusion that we'll solve these problems or even have any psychic skills for making predictions. It's just an interesting topic--for those who are interested in it. If you really think it's a waste of words, I have to wonder what's wrong with you for participating.
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#1616
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I don't think anybody has a delusion that we'll solve these problems or even have any psychic skills for making predictions. It's just an interesting topic--for those who are interested in it. If you really think it's a waste of words, I have to wonder what's wrong with you for participating.
hard to see how someone could be a "better" person while also putting down someones else ...but .....
For instance ...you could have said "I wonder why you participate." But no ... to feel you got one up on me, you had to put me down. Sorry about Your problem.
I don't have to wonder what is wrong with you, that you feel the need to demean people ...
#1624
Prefers Cicero
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People can talk about whatever they want, but in this particular thread I would prefer we discuss 5 year predictions, as per the thread title.