Go Back  Bike Forums > The Lounge > Coronavirus/COVID-19
Reload this Page >

Let's talk about Sweden

Notices
Coronavirus/COVID-19 Discussion of the novel coronavirus

Let's talk about Sweden

Old 07-12-20, 10:37 AM
  #51  
3alarmer
Friendship is Magic
 
3alarmer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: The Big Tomato
Posts: 18,913

Bikes: old ones

Mentioned: 259 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 18634 Post(s)
Liked 2,152 Times in 1,582 Posts

COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining?

The gap between soaring cases and falling deaths is being weaponized by the right to claim a hollow victory in the face of shameless failure. What’s really going on?

1. Deaths lag cases—and that might explain almost everything.

2. Expanded testing is finding more cases, milder cases, and earlier cases.

3. The typical COVID-19 patient is getting younger.

4. Hospitalized patients are dying less frequently, even without a home-run treatment.

5. Summer might be helping—but probably only a little bit.

3alarmer is offline  
Likes For 3alarmer:
Old 07-12-20, 10:44 AM
  #52  
79pmooney
A Roadie Forever
 
79pmooney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 8,665

Bikes: (2) ti TiCycles, 2007 w/ triple and 2011 fixed, 1979 Peter Mooney, ~1983 Trek 420 now fixed and ~1973 Raleigh Carlton Competition gravel grinder

Mentioned: 100 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2396 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 836 Times in 564 Posts
Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...clearly we are dealing with an education gap.
In your post and link yesterday I looked for the percentages of CPU beds still available. Had I found it, I was going to plot the rising cases just to see for how many more days the governor's assertion of plenty of beds remains true.

Now it is true that I suffer from that curse, education. I understand a little math. I can read a graph, I can even make one from scratch with a CAD program. (Warning - bicycle related - I made a graph years ago where I can pull off the fork rake to get the steering I like for any headtube angle. Very useful when ordering custom bicycles.)

Geometric progressions - the easy stuff. Partial differential calculus to model where those airborne viruses (virii? let's keep our Latin pure) go, now that's real math.

geometric progressions - think parades. First the floats in a line. A block of floats later, two side by side. Next block 4 floats side by side (following a wrecking crew that is very quickly removing the Main Street storefronts). Next, 8 side by side and whole blocks are coming out. (Florida and Texas in August.) Whole neighborhoods this fall. But not to worry. The show (this parade) will go on.

Ben
79pmooney is offline  
Old 07-12-20, 02:23 PM
  #53  
RubeRad
Keepin it Wheel
Thread Starter
 
RubeRad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: San Diego
Posts: 9,256

Bikes: Surly CrossCheck, Moto Fantom29 ProSL hardtail

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 20 Post(s)
Liked 678 Times in 514 Posts
?? You need a CAD program to make a graph? I think it's a lot easier in Excel
RubeRad is offline  
Old 07-13-20, 09:06 AM
  #54  
RubeRad
Keepin it Wheel
Thread Starter
 
RubeRad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: San Diego
Posts: 9,256

Bikes: Surly CrossCheck, Moto Fantom29 ProSL hardtail

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 20 Post(s)
Liked 678 Times in 514 Posts
From the yahoo/Business Insider article above:

That applies to care homes, too, which have been hit hard: 90% of the country's deaths have been among those over 70. Care home workers previously said they were initially told to not bring residents to hospitals, or to give patients oxygen without a doctor's approval.
Me:
Compare that to today's L.A. times CA statistics show that lumping together the 65-79 and 80+ demographics adds up to about 14% of CA cases and 77% of CA deaths.
So is that 'better' or 'worse'? 90% of deaths over 70 vs only 77% of deaths over 65? If you're old then CA is better for you. If you're young, then in Sweden you have better odds. But which is better for 'society'? There is no obvious easy answer, especially when you include all the other possible metrics.
RubeRad is offline  
Old 07-16-20, 02:03 PM
  #55  
CycleryNorth81
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 771

Bikes: custom Cyclery North (Chicago), Schwinn Circuit

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 307 Post(s)
Liked 155 Times in 89 Posts

Sweden becomes an example of how not to handle COVID-19

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-be...141918249.html
CycleryNorth81 is offline  
Old 07-16-20, 02:33 PM
  #56  
RubeRad
Keepin it Wheel
Thread Starter
 
RubeRad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: San Diego
Posts: 9,256

Bikes: Surly CrossCheck, Moto Fantom29 ProSL hardtail

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 20 Post(s)
Liked 678 Times in 514 Posts
Thx again for article.

The country's mortality rate from the coronavirus is now 30% higher than that of the United States, when adjusted for population size.

"now 30%" -- more accurate would be "now only 30%". As of the OP that was Sweden 543 Deaths/1M, U.S. 407 --> 33% higher. As of today it's 554/425=1.30, so the US has closed that gap to 30% Currently, US has 10 states with worse Deaths/1M than Sweden: Maryland, Illinois, Michigan, Louisiana, DC, RI, Mass, Conn, NY, NJ (and thus 40 states with fewer Deaths/1M than Sweden, I let you guess what they are, but I'll note CA is one of the better-off states with 187)

With the onset of summer, Sweden's outbreak has finally slowed down. From a peak of more than 100 deaths per day, the country is now reporting daily death tolls in the low teens.

But in a couple months, when the short northern summer ends, people will head back indoors, where the virus could easily explode again. Swedish scientists have called for stricter, more data-driven measures to prevent a resurgence.

...

"If there is one country in Europe where there will be a second peak, it will be most likely Sweden, because they're still not doing that much to really stop it," she said.
Here are daily case/death curves as of today:




Deaths still tailing off, can't predict at this point whether the case curve is about to turn upwards for a 2nd wave, or is asymptotically tailing off as well (until as the article suggests, cold weather returns and Swedes all head indoors)

Compare Sweden, pop 10.1M to Michican, pop 9.9M, 8th worst state for Deaths/1M at 636, and definitely starting a 2nd wave.

Last edited by RubeRad; 07-16-20 at 02:45 PM.
RubeRad is offline  
Old 07-16-20, 06:37 PM
  #57  
CliffordK
Senior Member
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 24,728
Mentioned: 196 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11739 Post(s)
Liked 1,051 Times in 816 Posts
A couple of things about cases vs deaths.

Testing more people can throw around the case curve more than the death curve (if one tests most of the severe cases and pneumonia/cardiac deaths).

The other thing that happened in many locations was very poor protection of the elderly and nursing facilities to the point that some areas intentionally discharged COVID carriers into nursing facilities.

So simply a change in policies to protect the elderly and vulnerable could make a big difference in death rates.
CliffordK is offline  
Old 07-16-20, 11:37 PM
  #58  
RubeRad
Keepin it Wheel
Thread Starter
 
RubeRad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: San Diego
Posts: 9,256

Bikes: Surly CrossCheck, Moto Fantom29 ProSL hardtail

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 20 Post(s)
Liked 678 Times in 514 Posts
Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
A couple of things about cases vs deaths.

Testing more people can throw around the case curve more than the death curve (if one tests most of the severe cases and pneumonia/cardiac deaths).

The other thing that happened in many locations was very poor protection of the elderly and nursing facilities to the point that some areas intentionally discharged COVID carriers into nursing facilities.

So simply a change in policies to protect the elderly and vulnerable could make a big difference in death rates.
Both good points. That's why I was initially focused mostly on the death curve, it's inevitably going to be a more precise reflection of reality
RubeRad is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.