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TdF Stage 17 - Wednesday July 22 - 169 km - Bourg-Saint-Maurice → Le Grand-Bornand

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TdF Stage 17 - Wednesday July 22 - 169 km - Bourg-Saint-Maurice → Le Grand-Bornand

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Old 07-22-09, 10:46 AM
  #301  
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The only problem with that ( calculation based on 1st ITT) is the first TT was
uphill for the first half ( advantage Alberto) and a tricky technical descent the second half.
I'm not sure that the advantages will be so large to AC on this course.
Whatever happens its going to be interesting.
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Old 07-22-09, 10:50 AM
  #302  
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Originally Posted by lotek
The only problem with that ( calculation based on 1st ITT) is the first TT was
uphill for the first half ( advantage Alberto) and a tricky technical descent the second half.
I'm not sure that the advantages will be so large to AC on this course.
Whatever happens its going to be interesting.
the TT doesn't favor AC or the shreks. AC needed to put time on wiggins and armstong today, and that's exactly what he did.

ed rader
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Old 07-22-09, 10:50 AM
  #303  
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Originally Posted by julian
When is your loverboy AC going to start working on his?


ed rader
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Old 07-22-09, 10:51 AM
  #304  
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Tele, that's just freaky.
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Old 07-22-09, 10:51 AM
  #305  
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Originally Posted by julian
incorrect
Can we dispense with these "incorrect" responses?

Elaborate, discuss, or don't post.. you know?
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Old 07-22-09, 10:53 AM
  #306  
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Originally Posted by Tsuru
Can we dispense with these "incorrect" responses?

Elaborate, discuss, or don't post.. you know?
Dude, it was a response to Mr. Incorrect himself. I have done plenty of elaboration and discussion. Quit being board nanny, or quit posting.
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Old 07-22-09, 10:54 AM
  #307  
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My issue with Contador's attack has nothing to do with protecting Kloden's and Armstrong's positions (obviously, not something Contador or Bruyneel should be very worried about at this point). It has more to do with the fact that he opened himself up to having a problem on the descent and being left alone with Frank and Andy and in danger of losing time to those two (who at that point, with Wiggins and Armstrong off the back were the only threats left to him in the entire race).

It was just a high risk, no reward move. He seemed very chastised afterwords, he realized it was the wrong move. This isn't a Lance v. AC thing or something - it was just a poor tactical move by an enormously talented young rider who's still learning a bit about to manage a grand tour when he's the heavy favorite.
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Old 07-22-09, 10:55 AM
  #308  
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Julian is trying to be like Botto. It ain't working.
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Old 07-22-09, 10:55 AM
  #309  
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Originally Posted by telebianchi
Very unscientific here, but if you take the Stage 1 times, multiply them by 2.6 and add them to the current GC times you end up with Contador > A. Schleck > Armstrong > Kloden > Wiggins

GC # name GC Stg 1 ITT GC + 2.6 xITT Diff
1 21 CONTADOR, Alberto ESP AST 72:27:09 0:19:50 73:18:43 0:00:00
2 31 SCHLECK, Andy LUX SAX 72:29:35 0:20:32 73:22:58 0:04:15
4 22 ARMSTRONG, Lance USA AST 72:31:04 0:20:12 73:23:35 0:04:52
5 23 KLÖDEN, Andréas GER AST 72:31:53 0:19:54 73:23:37 0:04:54
6 58 WIGGINS, Bradley GBR GRM 72:32:02 0:19:51 73:23:39 0:04:56
7 95 NIBALI, Vincenzo ITA LIQ 72:32:18 0:20:09 73:24:41 0:05:58
3 36 SCHLECK, Frank LUX SAX 72:30:34 0:21:08 73:25:31 0:06:48
8 51 VANDE VELDE, Christian USA GRM 72:35:17 0:20:29 73:28:32 0:09:49


It is pretty unscientific, but I do think it's interesting that Armstrong, Kloden and Wiggins are within 4 seconds after that little thought experiment.
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Old 07-22-09, 10:58 AM
  #310  
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"It was just a high risk, no reward move. He seemed very chastised afterwords, he realized it was the wrong move. This isn't a Lance v. AC thing or something - it was just a poor tactical move by an enormously talented young rider who's still learning a bit about to manage a grand tour when he's the heavy favorite."

Quite the correct analysis unless Kloden had indicated to Contador that he was prepared to attack but when it actually happened, his legs would not cooperate. Hence, Contador backed off immediately.

Contador is great talent but still needs to improve his understanding and execution of race tactics. At least in the ITT tomorrow, he doesn't have to think about anything else and anyone else except going fast.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:07 AM
  #311  
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Originally Posted by lotek
The only problem with that ( calculation based on 1st ITT) is the first TT was
uphill for the first half ( advantage Alberto) and a tricky technical descent the second half.
I'm not sure that the advantages will be so large to AC on this course.
Whatever happens its going to be interesting.
Agreed, but I spend about 20% of my day working in Excel spreadsheets. Therefore, I play with numbers.

Originally Posted by justinb
It is pretty unscientific, but I do think it's interesting that Armstrong, Kloden and Wiggins are within 4 seconds after that little thought experiment.
I thought that had more relevance than the actual numbers or placement. Too much time for Nibali or F. Schleck to make up on Ventoux. A. Schleck should be able hold his spot and then increase it on Ventoux. Still leaves the three guys between them to fight for third.

Here's a better formatted version:

Originally Posted by telebianchi

GC # name ________________ Wed GC ____Stg 1 ITT ___ GC + 2.6 xITT _____ Diff
1 21 CONTADOR, Alberto ______ 72:27:09 ___ 0:19:50 _____ 73:18:43 _______ 0:00:00
2 31 SCHLECK, Andy _________ 72:29:35 ___ 0:20:32 ______ 73:22:58 _______ 0:04:15
4 22 ARMSTRONG, Lance ______ 72:31:04 ___ 0:20:12 _____ 73:23:35 _______ 0:04:52
5 23 KLÖDEN, Andréas ________ 72:31:53 ___ 0:19:54 ______ 73:23:37 _______ 0:04:54
6 58 WIGGINS, Bradley ________ 72:32:02 ___ 0:19:51 ______ 73:23:39 _______ 0:04:56
7 95 NIBALI, Vincenzo ________ 72:32:18 ____ 0:20:09 _____ 73:24:41 _______ 0:05:58
3 36 SCHLECK, Frank _________ 72:30:34 ____ 0:21:08 ______ 73:25:31 ______ 0:06:48
8 51 VANDE VELDE, Christian ___ 72:35:17 ___ 0:20:29 ______ 73:28:32 ______ 0:09:49
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Old 07-22-09, 11:07 AM
  #312  
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with three GTs under his belt in a little over a year and the yellow jersey on his shoulders the BFers think that contador needs to learn race tactics .

ed rader
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Old 07-22-09, 11:11 AM
  #313  
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Originally Posted by puppypilgrim
"It was just a high risk, no reward move. He seemed very chastised afterwords, he realized it was the wrong move. This isn't a Lance v. AC thing or something - it was just a poor tactical move by an enormously talented young rider who's still learning a bit about to manage a grand tour when he's the heavy favorite."

Quite the correct analysis unless Kloden had indicated to Contador that he was prepared to attack but when it actually happened, his legs would not cooperate. Hence, Contador backed off immediately.

Contador is great talent but still needs to improve his understanding and execution of race tactics. At least in the ITT tomorrow, he doesn't have to think about anything else and anyone else except going fast.
I think he knew it was the wrong move from the beginning. Every rider makes mistakes and this was one. Do I hate him for it, no, but I had to needle his fans a little bit for it.
This AC can do no wrong and Armstrong can do no right is rather amusing. AC is a great rider and still young. He can make mistakes and still recover. I think the Shlecks did a beautiful job today.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:14 AM
  #314  
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Originally Posted by erader
with three GTs under his belt in a little over a year and the yellow jersey on his shoulders the BFers think that contador needs to learn race tactics .

ed rader
I would give a strong measure of tactical credit for Contador's wins to Bruyneel. I doubt today's move was sanctioned from the car.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:15 AM
  #315  
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Originally Posted by Laggard
Julian is trying to be like Botto. It ain't working.
thats a positive though.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:17 AM
  #316  
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Originally Posted by SunSwingsLow
thats a positive though.
Thanks!
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Old 07-22-09, 11:21 AM
  #317  
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Originally Posted by erader
with three GTs under his belt in a little over a year and the yellow jersey on his shoulders the BFers think that contador needs to learn race tactics .

ed rader

With 7 yellow jerseys and nearly an entire nation feeding out of his hand you think Lance needs image rehabilatation.

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Old 07-22-09, 11:23 AM
  #318  
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Originally Posted by erader
with three GTs under his belt in a little over a year and the yellow jersey on his shoulders the BFers think that contador needs to learn race tactics .

ed rader
AC's really great, but he wouldn't be in yellow if he didn't have his team. You can only burn your bridges so many times, you know? I don't know if that's what happened here, but the attack was pointless and took away (for now) a chance at Astana have 1, 2, and 3...
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Old 07-22-09, 11:30 AM
  #319  
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Originally Posted by Tsuru
AC's really great, but he wouldn't be in yellow if he didn't have his team. You can only burn your bridges so many times, you know? I don't know if that's what happened here, but the attack was pointless and took away (for now) a chance at Astana have 1, 2, and 3...
Originally Posted by erader
with three GTs under his belt in a little over a year and the yellow jersey on his shoulders the BFers think that contador needs to learn race tactics .

ed rader
I also don't think it's really a knock against AC to say he still has room to learn. Everyone will be gunning for him over the next several years and if he doesn't continue to improve someone will beat him.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:32 AM
  #320  
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I think that Contador isn't dumb, but needs someone to rein him in, i.e. someone like Bruyneel. I think
he is a little hot headed and once he gets the bit between his teeth sometimes goes off half-cocked.
I don't think he was purposely trying to isolate his own teammates but I think he made an error in
judging whether Kloden could follow his jump. Tactically stupid but not willfully so.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:32 AM
  #321  
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And he may not have the "Astana Train" to choo choo the peloton to exhaustion or get him over the first few climbs without spending much energy.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:34 AM
  #322  
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Originally Posted by erader
only flack AC is catching is from lance fanbois on BF .

ed rader
I am a Lance FAN because he won 7 TDF and the Live Strong Foundation which he built by being one good rider. He will finish in the top 5 or on the podium not riding for the win and beat a lot of "youngsters". Lance has done much for Cycling and Cancer Research and gets an A+ from me.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:36 AM
  #323  
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Originally Posted by Tsuru
AC's really great, but he wouldn't be in yellow if he didn't have his team. You can only burn your bridges so many times, you know? I don't know if that's what happened here, but the attack was pointless and took away (for now) a chance at Astana have 1, 2, and 3...
Well according to his fans, AC can do no wrong. Great rider, but to stay on top you need to forge alliances. AC has it all at this point, young, talented, and wearing the yellow jersey. A lot of people are good at handling adversity but give them fame and fortune and adoration, and many can't handle it.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:37 AM
  #324  
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I don't care for either, I tend to root for underdogs.
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Old 07-22-09, 11:37 AM
  #325  
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Originally Posted by julian
Well according to his fans, AC can do no wrong. Great rider, but to stay on top you need to forge alliances. AC has it all at this point, young, talented, and wearing the yellow jersey. A lot of people are good at handling adversity but give them fame and fortune and adoration, and many can't handle it.
Agreed!

Great riders need their Popos and Christians and Big Georges to be great riders! He needs to remember them...
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