"New" bike models
06-09-09, 04:13 PM
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"New" bike models
With the economy on its knees for the last 18 months, I wonder how many truly new 2010 models will be introduced vs. slightly modified 2009's with different paint and decals. I'm guessing that this will be a year of "refinement" for almost all of the brands.
Your thoughts?
Your thoughts?
06-09-09, 04:16 PM
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I tend to agree. I'm not sure if it really matters all that much, though. The marginal improvements from year to year are usually very small, if they exist at all.
06-09-09, 07:26 PM
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How much change can there be. I think we're getting close to hitting the R&D wall as far as weight goes.
OTOH, it will be interesting to see what comes out of the 2010 all-Asian Cannondale line-up.
OTOH, it will be interesting to see what comes out of the 2010 all-Asian Cannondale line-up.
06-09-09, 07:40 PM
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Good question. I would think that the R&D is a few years ahead, so we might see the impacts of today's economy in a few years, rather than now... It would be interesting to hear from someone in the know at the big boys.
06-09-09, 07:54 PM
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The buying for 2010 was done in late 2009.
From what I can tell (based on lead times) orders have not fallen off significantly. The big tell will be whether Shimano gets it's OE groups to the assembly factories on time this year or not. I'm not really in the loop on this one. I would actually have to go find out.
Based on chatter at the 2009 shows most in the industry was talking about lower new bike sales but an increase in parts and accessories sales. Their thinking was that many consumers would freshen up their bikes this year instead of buying a new one. I would look here for the most interesting changes in 2010.
This may have had an effect on how PM approached their lines this year. Maybe they would be reluctant to open new molds and stick with the same ones but change the specs? Or maybe they were already locked in?
We shall soon see as 2010 bikes are being assembled now and shipped soon.
From what I can tell (based on lead times) orders have not fallen off significantly. The big tell will be whether Shimano gets it's OE groups to the assembly factories on time this year or not. I'm not really in the loop on this one. I would actually have to go find out.
Based on chatter at the 2009 shows most in the industry was talking about lower new bike sales but an increase in parts and accessories sales. Their thinking was that many consumers would freshen up their bikes this year instead of buying a new one. I would look here for the most interesting changes in 2010.
This may have had an effect on how PM approached their lines this year. Maybe they would be reluctant to open new molds and stick with the same ones but change the specs? Or maybe they were already locked in?
We shall soon see as 2010 bikes are being assembled now and shipped soon.
06-09-09, 07:59 PM
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The R&D will have already been done for anything remotely possible to be released this year; the real question is whether the tooling had been set up before everything hit the fan. Also, to what degree manufacturers depend upon credit markets for capital investments.
My guess is that we'll see very little really new stuff for 2010, and are likely to have a hole in innovative products 2-3 years down the road.
My guess is that we'll see very little really new stuff for 2010, and are likely to have a hole in innovative products 2-3 years down the road.
