What will be the last high level mechanical shifter?
07-16-23, 10:13 AM
#76
Junior Member
This isn’t about what you think is more elegant. Or reliable. Or serviceable in Guatemala 🇬🇹 r whatever.
Its simply a question, too broad to be a poll, about what you think the last great high end mechanical group will be? Are they all doomed? Or will one find a niche, just like the Blockbuster video in Bend, OR and survive.
Immediately, I’ll dismiss all road groups from the big 3. They’re all electric and may soon not have any mechanical counterparts.
Mountain groups have more mechanical options but they’re trickling into electrical.
There are currently 2 gravel groups. Campagnolo Ekar and new unreleased 12s GRX that are mechanical. Are these the last of the breed?
Will Microshift and TRP and others little guys become sufficiently high end for the cable pulling crowd?
Will there be an electric shifting crash? What are 20 year old used bikes going to look like in 19 years?
I’m not judging electric shifting. For my riding, I rode a wireless Archer system for the last year and a half but am switching it back to mechanical (Ekar) because I couldn’t reach the shifter from the drops and wanted a 13s cassette. My mountain is mechanical and the NX group on it knows that it’s one missed shift from the AXS upgrade kit.
Its simply a question, too broad to be a poll, about what you think the last great high end mechanical group will be? Are they all doomed? Or will one find a niche, just like the Blockbuster video in Bend, OR and survive.
Immediately, I’ll dismiss all road groups from the big 3. They’re all electric and may soon not have any mechanical counterparts.
Mountain groups have more mechanical options but they’re trickling into electrical.
There are currently 2 gravel groups. Campagnolo Ekar and new unreleased 12s GRX that are mechanical. Are these the last of the breed?
Will Microshift and TRP and others little guys become sufficiently high end for the cable pulling crowd?
Will there be an electric shifting crash? What are 20 year old used bikes going to look like in 19 years?
I’m not judging electric shifting. For my riding, I rode a wireless Archer system for the last year and a half but am switching it back to mechanical (Ekar) because I couldn’t reach the shifter from the drops and wanted a 13s cassette. My mountain is mechanical and the NX group on it knows that it’s one missed shift from the AXS upgrade kit.
07-16-23, 03:41 PM
#77
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: location location
Posts: 3,035
Bikes: MBK Super Mirage 1991, CAAD10, Yuba Mundo Lux, and a Cannondale Criterium Single Speed
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 344 Post(s)
Liked 297 Times
in
207 Posts
I see a high end Campagnolo mechanical group set in the future; specifically produced for vintage frames. As one magazine put it when the Super Record wireless came out: Campagnolo is in the "luxury sports" segment now. It seems there is a large market out there for vintage steel/titanium frames which neither allow for disc brakes and whose riders will insist on mechanical shifting. Athena was a first try at this market, if I am not mistaken, but they were a bit early as there still was/is a mechanical Super. Record available. Once this is phased out they might produce a "legacy" group set....
Potenza replaced Athena as the upper-tier, Ultegra-adjacent group with both silver (classic) and black (modern) finishes, but it always looked a bit ugly and cheap compared to classic Campag. Potenza in turn got ditched by the time Ekar came in.
07-16-23, 04:31 PM
#78
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: In the south but from North
Posts: 700
Bikes: Turner 5-Spot Burner converted; IBIS Ripley, Specialized Crave, Tommasini Sintesi, Cinelli Superstar, Tommasini X-Fire Gravel
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 406 Post(s)
Liked 389 Times
in
219 Posts
I see a high end Campagnolo mechanical group set in the future; specifically produced for vintage frames. As one magazine put it when the Super Record wireless came out: Campagnolo is in the "luxury sports" segment now. It seems there is a large market out there for vintage steel/titanium frames which neither allow for disc brakes and whose riders will insist on mechanical shifting. Athena was a first try at this market, if I am not mistaken, but they were a bit early as there still was/is a mechanical Super. Record available. Once this is phased out they might produce a "legacy" group set....
Likes For vespasianus:
07-17-23, 09:26 AM
#79
Super-duper Genius
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Muskrat Springs, Utah
Posts: 1,713
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 768 Post(s)
Liked 984 Times
in
508 Posts
It is my belief (and hope) that derailleurs will fall out of favor at some point. Perhaps the 12 speed road (and 13 speed gravel) groups that are state of the art now will be the last generation of high-end derailleur drivetrains.
What will replace them? Perhaps really good and affordable internally geared hubs, i.e. epicyclic or "planetary" gears. Rohloff has for years made excellent but not affordble versions of these. Shimano also has some that are nearly as good and slightly less costly.
Perhaps the Pinion gearbox at the crank will catch on and come down in price.
In either case, I think belt drive would begin to dominate, as these systems can easily use a belt and benefit from its inherent advantages.
I don't hate chains (or even derailleurs), and I believe they will be around for a very long time on lower-end bikes.
Upon proofreading my words above before I hit "submit," I realize two things: Belts will probably not dominate at high levels of racing, because they are not as efficient as the old tried and true chain; perhaps they will become common on mid- to high-end noncompetitive bikes. And electronic shifting will likely be the way of the future, even with these alterative drivetrain designs. (Shimano already has DI2 for some of their IGHs.)
What will replace them? Perhaps really good and affordable internally geared hubs, i.e. epicyclic or "planetary" gears. Rohloff has for years made excellent but not affordble versions of these. Shimano also has some that are nearly as good and slightly less costly.
Perhaps the Pinion gearbox at the crank will catch on and come down in price.
In either case, I think belt drive would begin to dominate, as these systems can easily use a belt and benefit from its inherent advantages.
I don't hate chains (or even derailleurs), and I believe they will be around for a very long time on lower-end bikes.
Upon proofreading my words above before I hit "submit," I realize two things: Belts will probably not dominate at high levels of racing, because they are not as efficient as the old tried and true chain; perhaps they will become common on mid- to high-end noncompetitive bikes. And electronic shifting will likely be the way of the future, even with these alterative drivetrain designs. (Shimano already has DI2 for some of their IGHs.)
07-17-23, 10:42 AM
#80
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 8,456
Mentioned: 12 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4420 Post(s)
Liked 4,873 Times
in
3,017 Posts
It is my belief (and hope) that derailleurs will fall out of favor at some point. Perhaps the 12 speed road (and 13 speed gravel) groups that are state of the art now will be the last generation of high-end derailleur drivetrains.
What will replace them? Perhaps really good and affordable internally geared hubs, i.e. epicyclic or "planetary" gears. Rohloff has for years made excellent but not affordble versions of these. Shimano also has some that are nearly as good and slightly less costly.
Perhaps the Pinion gearbox at the crank will catch on and come down in price.
In either case, I think belt drive would begin to dominate, as these systems can easily use a belt and benefit from its inherent advantages.
I don't hate chains (or even derailleurs), and I believe they will be around for a very long time on lower-end bikes.
Upon proofreading my words above before I hit "submit," I realize two things: Belts will probably not dominate at high levels of racing, because they are not as efficient as the old tried and true chain; perhaps they will become common on mid- to high-end noncompetitive bikes. And electronic shifting will likely be the way of the future, even with these alterative drivetrain designs. (Shimano already has DI2 for some of their IGHs.)
What will replace them? Perhaps really good and affordable internally geared hubs, i.e. epicyclic or "planetary" gears. Rohloff has for years made excellent but not affordble versions of these. Shimano also has some that are nearly as good and slightly less costly.
Perhaps the Pinion gearbox at the crank will catch on and come down in price.
In either case, I think belt drive would begin to dominate, as these systems can easily use a belt and benefit from its inherent advantages.
I don't hate chains (or even derailleurs), and I believe they will be around for a very long time on lower-end bikes.
Upon proofreading my words above before I hit "submit," I realize two things: Belts will probably not dominate at high levels of racing, because they are not as efficient as the old tried and true chain; perhaps they will become common on mid- to high-end noncompetitive bikes. And electronic shifting will likely be the way of the future, even with these alterative drivetrain designs. (Shimano already has DI2 for some of their IGHs.)
07-17-23, 11:56 AM
#81
Super-duper Genius
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Muskrat Springs, Utah
Posts: 1,713
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 768 Post(s)
Liked 984 Times
in
508 Posts
This hub is spec'ed on one of my holy grail dream bikes, the 75th anniversary special edition Cinelli XCR. There's no way I will get one, because they're only making 20, and price is 15,000 Euros. But man that's a beautiful machine.
07-17-23, 03:06 PM
#82
Full Member
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Ellay
Posts: 340
Bikes: 2002 Eddy Merckx Team SC Resto-Mod; 2019 Ibis Hakka MX; 2017 Spot Brand Ajax Belt Drive
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 169 Post(s)
Liked 192 Times
in
121 Posts
It is my belief (and hope) that derailleurs will fall out of favor at some point. Perhaps the 12 speed road (and 13 speed gravel) groups that are state of the art now will be the last generation of high-end derailleur drivetrains.
What will replace them? Perhaps really good and affordable internally geared hubs, i.e. epicyclic or "planetary" gears. Rohloff has for years made excellent but not affordble versions of these. Shimano also has some that are nearly as good and slightly less costly.
Perhaps the Pinion gearbox at the crank will catch on and come down in price.
In either case, I think belt drive would begin to dominate, as these systems can easily use a belt and benefit from its inherent advantages.
I don't hate chains (or even derailleurs), and I believe they will be around for a very long time on lower-end bikes.
Upon proofreading my words above before I hit "submit," I realize two things: Belts will probably not dominate at high levels of racing, because they are not as efficient as the old tried and true chain; perhaps they will become common on mid- to high-end noncompetitive bikes. And electronic shifting will likely be the way of the future, even with these alterative drivetrain designs. (Shimano already has DI2 for some of their IGHs.)
What will replace them? Perhaps really good and affordable internally geared hubs, i.e. epicyclic or "planetary" gears. Rohloff has for years made excellent but not affordble versions of these. Shimano also has some that are nearly as good and slightly less costly.
Perhaps the Pinion gearbox at the crank will catch on and come down in price.
In either case, I think belt drive would begin to dominate, as these systems can easily use a belt and benefit from its inherent advantages.
I don't hate chains (or even derailleurs), and I believe they will be around for a very long time on lower-end bikes.
Upon proofreading my words above before I hit "submit," I realize two things: Belts will probably not dominate at high levels of racing, because they are not as efficient as the old tried and true chain; perhaps they will become common on mid- to high-end noncompetitive bikes. And electronic shifting will likely be the way of the future, even with these alterative drivetrain designs. (Shimano already has DI2 for some of their IGHs.)
I was riding my 12-speed mechanical Campy road bike yesterday. When it's properly tuned, it is so satisfying to ride. The shifts are so precise and have an excellent snap/thunk like a bolt action rifle or something. I know it's not as good as electronic -- but it's like driving a really good stick-shift sports car.
Likes For mattcalifornia:
07-17-23, 04:29 PM
#83
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2021
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 2,039
Bikes: addict, aethos, creo, vanmoof, sirrus, public ...
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1279 Post(s)
Liked 1,393 Times
in
711 Posts
I don't know about that. I have 8-speed Alfine on my belt-drive commuter bike. It weighs about 6 tons, the shifting just isn't as fast as a good derailleur, and there is more drivetrain friction loss. IGH has its applications and benefits, but it isn't going to replace standard derailleurs on racing/sport road bikes any time soon. I've never ridden a pinion bike, but I suspect it has some of the same trade-offs.
I was riding my 12-speed mechanical Campy road bike yesterday. When it's properly tuned, it is so satisfying to ride. The shifts are so precise and have an excellent snap/thunk like a bolt action rifle or something. I know it's not as good as electronic -- but it's like driving a really good stick-shift sports car.
I was riding my 12-speed mechanical Campy road bike yesterday. When it's properly tuned, it is so satisfying to ride. The shifts are so precise and have an excellent snap/thunk like a bolt action rifle or something. I know it's not as good as electronic -- but it's like driving a really good stick-shift sports car.
In the test, a Shimano Ultegra 2X drivetrain achieved an average of 96.2% drivetrain efficiency, while a SRAM Force 1X drivetrain averaged out at 95.1% efficient. This means that a Rohloff hub likely runs 1-2% less efficient, while a Pinion gearbox or Shimano internal gear hub is 5-6% less efficient, on average.
07-17-23, 04:31 PM
#84
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2021
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 2,039
Bikes: addict, aethos, creo, vanmoof, sirrus, public ...
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1279 Post(s)
Liked 1,393 Times
in
711 Posts
Indeed it is. Total gear range equal to a double crank, without the double crank. But it's like $3200, I think.
This hub is spec'ed on one of my holy grail dream bikes, the 75th anniversary special edition Cinelli XCR. There's no way I will get one, because they're only making 20, and price is 15,000 Euros. But man that's a beautiful machine.
This hub is spec'ed on one of my holy grail dream bikes, the 75th anniversary special edition Cinelli XCR. There's no way I will get one, because they're only making 20, and price is 15,000 Euros. But man that's a beautiful machine.
07-18-23, 08:18 AM
#85
Super-duper Genius
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Muskrat Springs, Utah
Posts: 1,713
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 768 Post(s)
Liked 984 Times
in
508 Posts
i feel like an evolved version of the powershift, integrated into a hub mated to a relatively narrow 10 speed rear cassette built to the modern 12 speed standards with closely spaced cogs would be a best of both worlds. i don't think you need 12 or 13 gears when you have the "overdrive" of the powershift, essentially, which can surely have a wider range than a 2x front. make it all electronic, of course.
07-19-23, 03:05 PM
#86
Bike Junkie
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: South of Raleigh, North of New Hill, East of Harris Lake, NC
Posts: 9,622
Bikes: Specialized Tarmac, Specialized Roubaix, Giant OCR-C, Specialized Stumpjumper FSR, Stumpjumper Comp, 88 & 92Nishiki Ariel, 87 Centurion Ironman, 92 Paramount, 84 Nishiki Medalist
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 68 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 37 Times
in
27 Posts
I have both the Shimano Dura-Ace 11 speed 9100 and Campy Super Record 11 Speed. Both are, in my opinion, hands down better than their 9 and 10 speed counterparts, which I also have/had. If I had to pick one system it would be the Shimano Dura Ace. I had the opportunity to change to Shimano DA, 10 Speed Di and passed. Yeah, IMHO the mechanical 11 speed is that good and that reliable.
__________________
Roccobike BF Official Thread Terminator
Roccobike BF Official Thread Terminator
07-19-23, 03:27 PM
#87
Senior Member
I don't think anyone makes a mechanical SLR camera anymore, despite their fans. The good ones are quite collectible.
It seems odd to me that there'd be no more Dura Ace or Record or Red mechanical, but that seems to be the way it's going, or gone.
It's also hard to find a pure, naturally-aspirated, manual-transmission, rear-wheel-drive, no-traction-control sports car.
My guess is that some niche builders will make very expensive mechanical shifters, like Rene Herse or Paul or even smaller more boutique builders. But it won't be a group that really matches what I read into the OP's question -- that is, it won't be something that looks like it belongs on a new production World Tour race bike.
Peak mechanical is probably all the 11-speed stuff.
It seems odd to me that there'd be no more Dura Ace or Record or Red mechanical, but that seems to be the way it's going, or gone.
It's also hard to find a pure, naturally-aspirated, manual-transmission, rear-wheel-drive, no-traction-control sports car.
My guess is that some niche builders will make very expensive mechanical shifters, like Rene Herse or Paul or even smaller more boutique builders. But it won't be a group that really matches what I read into the OP's question -- that is, it won't be something that looks like it belongs on a new production World Tour race bike.
Peak mechanical is probably all the 11-speed stuff.
07-21-23, 07:09 AM
#88
Rhapsodic Laviathan
Won't be a "last". Once every road bike has electric, they will come out with a new mechanical option to sell to those who seemingly always want to have the next shiny object. Or once people need to start paying $2500 to replace a nearly new condition, though chronologically a few years old, mech whose batteries went bad and no new batteries are made.
Likes For Jax Rhapsody:
07-21-23, 07:30 AM
#89
Rhapsodic Laviathan
Until in the dystopian future where lithium mines are all dried up. Those people will be having saddle bags with power wheels batteries in them, or some nine volts taped to the top tube once their stash of black market 18650 cells stolen from old Teslas and Rivians dry up. Some will eventually succomb and seek out the legend of the bicycle grave yard out in the wasteland, hoping those D batteries and solar panel holds up, incase of bandits, as they leave Neon City, rumor has it there's a 2028 Tourney system, like they saw in the archives once. All they have to go on is what used to be Nevada, and some half burried Roadmaster Granite Peaks and Next Avalons, like how those cadillac were on r66.
Likes For Jax Rhapsody:
07-21-23, 07:51 AM
#90
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 13,447
Mentioned: 33 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4236 Post(s)
Liked 2,949 Times
in
1,808 Posts
Dia-compe Wing shifters. Definitely not one of the big 3 (and definitely knock offs of Sun Tour Command shifters), but mechanical for sure and let you run whatever high end derailleurs you want.
__________________
Bikes: 1996 Eddy Merckx Titanium EX, 1989/90 Colnago Super(issimo?) Piu(?),1990 Concorde Aquila(hit by car while riding), others in build queue "when I get the time"
Bikes: 1996 Eddy Merckx Titanium EX, 1989/90 Colnago Super(issimo?) Piu(?),
07-25-23, 03:37 PM
#92
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Right where I'm supposed to be
Posts: 1,634
Bikes: Franklin Frames Custom, Rivendell Bombadil
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 117 Post(s)
Liked 209 Times
in
127 Posts
Now that the big weenies are drifting off to never never land with battery operated shifting(a consumer nightmare), I see nothing but more and more mechanical shifting options arising than ever. Possibly from names unheard of or unfamiliar with. The big weenies will have their loyal sheepies that will follow them over the cliff, bless their heart ..... while the rest of us ride on by on our beautiful mechanical contraptions.
07-25-23, 04:11 PM
#93
Senior Member
I really hope that the ebike thing results in advances in the 7 and 8 speed systems. Between 9 and 11 speeds I can't tell teh difference and the angles and system width and new fragility of components is irritating. I just spent some time trying to finagle with an 11 speed system and IMO it is worse than my 10 speed system. I would really rather there be advances in system durability and reliability rather than creating ever more intricate and delicate parts.
07-25-23, 08:12 PM
#94
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,660
Mentioned: 7 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1248 Post(s)
Liked 1,323 Times
in
674 Posts
Now that the big weenies are drifting off to never never land with battery operated shifting(a consumer nightmare), I see nothing but more and more mechanical shifting options arising than ever. Possibly from names unheard of or unfamiliar with. The big weenies will have their loyal sheepies that will follow them over the cliff, bless their heart ..... while the rest of us ride on by on our beautiful mechanical contraptions.
I really hope that the ebike thing results in advances in the 7 and 8 speed systems. Between 9 and 11 speeds I can't tell teh difference and the angles and system width and new fragility of components is irritating. I just spent some time trying to finagle with an 11 speed system and IMO it is worse than my 10 speed system. I would really rather there be advances in system durability and reliability rather than creating ever more intricate and delicate parts.
07-26-23, 07:16 AM
#95
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 8,456
Mentioned: 12 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4420 Post(s)
Liked 4,873 Times
in
3,017 Posts
Now that the big weenies are drifting off to never never land with battery operated shifting(a consumer nightmare), I see nothing but more and more mechanical shifting options arising than ever. Possibly from names unheard of or unfamiliar with. The big weenies will have their loyal sheepies that will follow them over the cliff, bless their heart ..... while the rest of us ride on by on our beautiful mechanical contraptions.
How has this played out in other consumer applications that have moved from mechanical to electronic systems? Cameras spring to mind. I don’t see many new mechanical contraptions there. Mechanical watches are still fairly popular I suppose, but only really as a fashion statement and/or engineering fascination (I do own several and am a professional Mech Eng). But my most functional, accurate daily watches are all electronic. Same goes for my bike drivetrains. But I’m just a very happy sheep.
07-26-23, 07:23 AM
#96
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 8,456
Mentioned: 12 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4420 Post(s)
Liked 4,873 Times
in
3,017 Posts
I really hope that the ebike thing results in advances in the 7 and 8 speed systems. Between 9 and 11 speeds I can't tell teh difference and the angles and system width and new fragility of components is irritating. I just spent some time trying to finagle with an 11 speed system and IMO it is worse than my 10 speed system. I would really rather there be advances in system durability and reliability rather than creating ever more intricate and delicate parts.
07-26-23, 07:48 AM
#97
Newbie
07-26-23, 08:24 AM
#98
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 13,447
Mentioned: 33 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4236 Post(s)
Liked 2,949 Times
in
1,808 Posts
If that's wired, can it be used with rim brakes too, or is the cable pull too different?
__________________
Bikes: 1996 Eddy Merckx Titanium EX, 1989/90 Colnago Super(issimo?) Piu(?),1990 Concorde Aquila(hit by car while riding), others in build queue "when I get the time"
Bikes: 1996 Eddy Merckx Titanium EX, 1989/90 Colnago Super(issimo?) Piu(?),
07-26-23, 09:10 AM
#99
Newbie
07-26-23, 09:16 AM
#100
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,660
Mentioned: 7 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1248 Post(s)
Liked 1,323 Times
in
674 Posts
It will defiantly provide drastically improved gearing range; cassette, wheel and shifter compatibility will no longer be an issue as well.