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No country knows how many people have Coronavirus

Old 03-31-20, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
In China the priority has focused on restarting the economy. (what they call victory, actually means containment has failed and they threw in the towel)

I imagine other countries will follow suit.

The best strategy is to assume your contagious, and take the necessary precautions to avoid making a bad situation worse.
Is there any possibility that you have some proof or links to this information. My son teaches in China. He is currently trapped here in the US because China does not wish to restart their virus problems with infections arriving from here. He does however have daily contact with his students as he is teaching online.

Now, it's a given that our population would not care to have the virus stopped in the manner that the Chinese did with a total lockdown requiring papers and written permission to leave one's apartment for any reason. It does seem however that such draconian measures did get them through a nationwide quarantine period while they isolated the sick and kept the healthy separated.

The concept that they are lying about it is a direct and intentional reaction on the internet from some rather dubious sources. I see no reason for it other than hysteria.
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Old 03-31-20, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by 308jerry View Post
"Figures lie and liars figure "
A quote that is so true today, from politicians to medical professionals. If nobody knows the truth, what is the truth?

Truth is corpses in semi-trailer freezers.
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Old 03-31-20, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Is there any possibility that you have some proof or links to this information. My son teaches in China. He is currently trapped here in the US because China does not wish to restart their virus problems with infections arriving from here. He does however have daily contact with his students as he is teaching online.

Now, it's a given that our population would not care to have the virus stopped in the manner that the Chinese did with a total lockdown requiring papers and written permission to leave one's apartment for any reason. It does seem however that such draconian measures did get them through a nationwide quarantine period while they isolated the sick and kept the healthy separated.

The concept that they are lying about it is a direct and intentional reaction on the internet from some rather dubious sources. I see no reason for it other than hysteria.
What's interesting to me is the info that can be gleaned from this website. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Click on a country from the vertical list on the left side of the webpage. Compare the graphs at the lower right with the three tabs "confirmed, logarithmic, daily increase".

All countries I've checked except China show increases in cases, while China's cases fell off a cliff and leveled to no increase in new cases in February. It just doesn't make sense.

Last edited by FiftySix; 03-31-20 at 04:10 PM. Reason: typo
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Old 03-31-20, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
What's interesting to me is the info that can gleaned from this website. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Click on a country from the vertical list on the left side of the webpage. Compare the graphs at the lower right with the three tabs "confirmed, logarithmic, daily increase".

All countries except China show increases in cases, while China's cases fell off a cliff and leveled to no increase in new cases in February. It just doesn't make sense.
Did you pay attention to the total lockdown. People with fevers were dragged out of their apartments and sent to quarantine. It was a complete lockdown the likes of which would have Americans screaming about their rights. They didn't wait for test results, the simply threw everyone who might have it into quarantine. Then they went looking for relatives and friends who had contact with them, symptoms or not. Quarantine was maintained by a stay in your apartment room. Do not come out for any reason for the next 14 days. No dog walking, No bike riding, No nothing. This form of social separation quickly isolated the sick from the not sick. Then they moved on to 14 days for everyone in the area, sick or not.

Today family members are being allowed back into Wuhan who have been locked out of the area in safer parts of China for a couple of months. Citizens of Wuhan are still not allowed to leave the city because no one knows yet if the possibility of reinfection has passed. The business areas of Wuhan are slowly opening back up. In other major cities like Shenzhen the theme parks are back open although the people in the street are being cautious about going wild with the new freedoms. Virtually all of the new cases in China are directly traceable to those returning to China from wherever they were trapped. This has led China to close it's borders to outsiders again. Anyone who makes it that far is put directly into a 14 day quarantine before being released.......everyone. The same is happening in Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. In the latter two the airports are closed. That's significant as those are two major transportation hubs to all of SE Asia. You cannot even land and move to another aircraft to leave without the mandatory 14 day quarantine.

Sometime a draconian government can get results when total control of the population is involved. Clearly some of those ideas aren't working in most other countries.
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Old 03-31-20, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Did you pay attention to the total lockdown. People with fevers were dragged out of their apartments and sent to quarantine. It was a complete lockdown the likes of which would have Americans screaming about their rights. They didn't wait for test results, the simply threw everyone who might have it into quarantine. Then they went looking for relatives and friends who had contact with them, symptoms or not. Quarantine was maintained by a stay in your apartment room. Do not come out for any reason for the next 14 days. No dog walking, No bike riding, No nothing. This form of social separation quickly isolated the sick from the not sick. Then they moved on to 14 days for everyone in the area, sick or not.

Today family members are being allowed back into Wuhan who have been locked out of the area in safer parts of China for a couple of months. Citizens of Wuhan are still not allowed to leave the city because no one knows yet if the possibility of reinfection has passed. The business areas of Wuhan are slowly opening back up. In other major cities like Shenzhen the theme parks are back open although the people in the street are being cautious about going wild with the new freedoms. Virtually all of the new cases in China are directly traceable to those returning to China from wherever they were trapped. This has led China to close it's borders to outsiders again. Anyone who makes it that far is put directly into a 14 day quarantine before being released.......everyone. The same is happening in Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. In the latter two the airports are closed. That's significant as those are two major transportation hubs to all of SE Asia. You cannot even land and move to another aircraft to leave without the mandatory 14 day quarantine.

Sometime a draconian government can get results when total control of the population is involved. Clearly some of those ideas aren't working in most other countries.
I'll wait for the expose on Frontline to come out in a year or two.
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Old 03-31-20, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
What's interesting to me is the info that can gleaned from this website. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Click on a country from the vertical list on the left side of the webpage. Compare the graphs at the lower right with the three tabs "confirmed, logarithmic, daily increase".

All countries except China show increases in cases, while China's cases fell off a cliff and leveled to no increase in new cases in February. It just doesn't make sense.
I agree. While I don't think necessarily there is some kind of conspiracy or coverup, it seems obvious to me that the official numbers are not reflecting what's going on in China. The past 2 days the total for China has been stuck around 82,000 and if you zoom in on Shanghai (24+M population) the case load is 600! Really?!
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Old 03-31-20, 03:30 PM
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There is no way to answer these questions without driving this thread into P&R. Believe what you want.
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Old 03-31-20, 03:41 PM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
There is no way to answer these questions without driving this thread into P&R. Believe what you want.
Yeah, I don't play in that echo chamber or any others on the net.
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Old 03-31-20, 03:44 PM
  #59  
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I don't have it, as far as I know.
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Old 03-31-20, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Truth is corpses in semi-trailer freezers.
Reefer trucks and plague pits.

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Old 03-31-20, 11:29 PM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
Yeah, I don't play in that echo chamber or any others on the net.
​​​​​​P&R isn't an echo chamber! It's a clown car.
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Old 04-01-20, 07:49 AM
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Originally Posted by alo View Post
The truth is, there is no country in the world where it is known how many people have Coronavirus. They only know the results of those who have been tested, and that is only a small proportion of the population. The only way they could have accurate records, would be to test everyone in the country. Then retest them from time to time, as they may get it later.

So countries where more testing is being done, appear to have more people infected, and countries where less testing is being done, appear to have less people infected. The statistics we see are far from accurate, and that is in places where they are trying to be honest.

Then there are countries where they are trying to present a good image, so the country looks good. Myanmar does not have any Coronavirus, if you believe what you say. A large proportion of the income in countries in S E Asia comes from tourists. It is important to make things look good so more tourists will come.
Odd then that the USA hasn't done that much testing, but has the most affected.
Perhaps you should just go away rather than continue to endanger people's lives by continuing to cause confusion and downplay the danger of this virus.

Last edited by OBoile; 04-01-20 at 10:46 AM.
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Old 04-01-20, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Spaghetti Legs View Post
I agree. While I don't think necessarily there is some kind of conspiracy or coverup, it seems obvious to me that the official numbers are not reflecting what's going on in China. The past 2 days the total for China has been stuck around 82,000 and if you zoom in on Shanghai (24+M population) the case load is 600! Really?!
I don't know the accuracy of the reporting below, but it makes one wonder.
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/chi...020182846.html
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Old 04-01-20, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
I don't know the accuracy of the reporting below, but it makes one wonder.
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/chi...020182846.html
Radio Free Asia is a US funded equivalent of Radio Free Europe. Is it really so difficult to believe that China might have stopped the virus in it's tracks with a complete quarantine of the affected areas?
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Old 04-01-20, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Radio Free Asia is a US funded equivalent of Radio Free Europe.
True.

Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Is it really so difficult to believe that China might have stopped the virus in it's tracks with a complete quarantine of the affected areas?
Why trust their government's reports so readily? Why trust any government's or corporation's reports to the public so readily?

I'm not promoting a conspiracy theory line of thinking, but I question what doesn't pass the proverbial smell test.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...f-virus-s-toll

Last edited by FiftySix; 04-01-20 at 01:37 PM. Reason: Trying to add link - Internet glitching
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Old 04-01-20, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by alo View Post
The truth is, there is no country in the world where it is known how many people have Coronavirus. They only know the results of those who have been tested, and that is only a small proportion of the population. The only way they could have accurate records, would be to test everyone in the country. Then retest them from time to time, as they may get it later.

So countries where more testing is being done, appear to have more people infected, and countries where less testing is being done, appear to have less people infected. The statistics we see are far from accurate, and that is in places where they are trying to be honest.

Then there are countries where they are trying to present a good image, so the country looks good. Myanmar does not have any Coronavirus, if you believe what you say. A large proportion of the income in countries in S E Asia comes from tourists. It is important to make things look good so more tourists will come.
So what you're saying is that you don't know what a statistically significant sample with a known error range is.
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Old 04-01-20, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
True.



Why trust their government's reports so readily? Why trust any government's or corporation's reports to the public so readily?

I'm not promoting a conspiracy theory line of thinking, but I question what doesn't pass the proverbial smell test.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...f-virus-s-toll
Probably because my oldest son lives and teaches there (trapped here at the moment because international air travel is shut down). He teaches online 3 nights a week from here now and is in constant contact with actual real residents. I suppose all those 15 year old kids might be lying, but it seems to make more sense from real time witnesses than from crackpot conspiracy theories.
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Old 04-01-20, 05:42 PM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Probably because my oldest son lives and teaches there (trapped here at the moment because international air travel is shut down). He teaches online 3 nights a week from here now and is in constant contact with actual real residents. I suppose all those 15 year old kids might be lying, but it seems to make more sense from real time witnesses than from crackpot conspiracy theories.
The 15 year old kids are his online class students? I hope they and their families are doing well.
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Old 04-01-20, 06:02 PM
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Some people just believe everything on TV. If it is on TV it must be true.
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Old 04-01-20, 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Probably because my oldest son lives and teaches there (trapped here at the moment because international air travel is shut down). He teaches online 3 nights a week from here now and is in constant contact with actual real residents. I suppose all those 15 year old kids might be lying, but it seems to make more sense from real time witnesses than from crackpot conspiracy theories.
The CIA seems to be involved in this crackpot conspiracy. Just saw this.


China hid extent of coronavirus outbreak, US intelligence reportedly saysPUBLISHED WED, APR 1 2020 12:15 PM EDTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO

The Chinese government has deliberately underreported the total number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the country, the U.S. intelligence community told the White House, a new report says. Bloomberg, citing three U.S. officials, reported Wednesday that the intelligence community said in a classified report that China's public tally of COVID-19 infections and deaths is purposefully incomplete.

The secret report concludes that China's numbers are fake, two of the officials told Bloomberg. The White House received the report last week, according to the news outlet. At a White House press briefing Wednesday, Trump said that "we have not received" any intelligence reports showing that China underreported its coronavirus numbers.


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/01/coronavirus-china-hid-extent-of-outbreak-us-intelligence-reportedly-says.html
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Old 04-01-20, 10:26 PM
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No country knows the exact number of cases, because no country has had the luxury of being able to test a representative sample of the population. The people who are tested are those with symptoms, and their contacts, or who have returned from a hot spot. I think the country that has sampled the biggest proportion of their population is South Korea, but even then I don't think it is representative of the population as a whole.

China watchers are pretty sure that China has not truthfully reported the number of cases. Estimates that I have seen range from 4 to 10 times the number of cases and deaths. That doesn't mean that they haven't been successful in getting their numbers down. If they say they have zero new cases don't believe them. It might be very low but it is not zero. When they re-open their schools, and movie theatres, and allow mass gatherings, you will know that they feel they have the upper hand.
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Old 04-02-20, 03:27 AM
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China watchers say..................
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Old 04-02-20, 03:53 AM
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Sadly some countries don't have enough samples to test people, imagine some small cities or in the countryside... I guess there are a lot of cases that are just not confirmed. Or also people who got the virus and just don't want to get checked. I believe the number of ill people is WAY bigger.
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Old 04-02-20, 04:59 AM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Sometime a draconian government can get results when total control of the population is involved. Clearly some of those ideas aren't working in most other countries.
Must be why thousands of urns were shipped to Wuhan last week. 2500 shipped with another 3500 stacked up. Why anyone would believe what a communist party (who throws out reporters, makes whistleblowers disappear and erases/bans social media accounts) would claim is beyond me. Especially after they were busted covering it up from the very start.
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Old 04-02-20, 05:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Lazyass View Post
Must be why thousands of urns were shipped to Wuhan last week. 2500 shipped with another 3500 stacked up. Why anyone would believe what a communist party (who throws out reporters, makes whistleblowers disappear and erases/bans social media accounts) would claim is beyond me. Especially after they were busted covering it up from the very start.
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