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No country knows how many people have Coronavirus

Old 04-02-20, 06:17 AM
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Another country under reporting, but a different response from their government than China.
------------
“We know the real number is higher, and we mourn them, knowing full well why they died,” says Mr. Fossati, the deputy mayor. “It’s a hard truth to accept.”

"So many coffins are accumulating that they are being stored in warehouses like this one in Ponte San Pietro, near Bergamo."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-...ed-11585767179

And the numbers for Italy didn't stop like a light switch had been turned off as is the case with China's numbers as still seen on this website. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

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Old 04-02-20, 06:50 AM
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Another thing to consider is that a country that can have a near absolute lockdown of their population can also attempt an absolute lockdown of what their population can read or write over the internet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(search_engine)

https://www.nytimes.com/topic/destin...rship-in-china

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Old 04-02-20, 06:58 AM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Some debating skills there
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Old 04-02-20, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Lazyass View Post
Some debating skills there
Post something with some facts behind it and you'll get better debates. The internet can be your friend or it can lead you to some of the wildest stuff around. Answer me this. While Wuhan was in lockdown is it possible that they had a situation similar to New York City where refrigerator trucks were backed up to hospitals because the crematoriums couldn't keep up? Given that possibility wouldn't you expect that as the lockdown lifts that urns and overtime at those crematoriums might be part of recovering from the dead already counted as opposed to some new dead that can't be counted by conspiracy theorists?

Your turn?
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Old 04-02-20, 07:31 AM
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
Another thing to consider is that a country that can have a near absolute lockdown of their population can also attempt an absolute lockdown of what their population can read or write over the internet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(search_engine)

https://www.nytimes.com/topic/destin...rship-in-china
You're right, those students must be held hostage with guns to their heads to write the silly things they write. It's probably a correct assumption.
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Old 04-02-20, 07:36 AM
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I, for one, am entirely reassured by my faith in the honesty of the Chinese government, and its extraordinary concern for the welfare of its citizenry.

I also believe in the tooth fairy.
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Old 04-02-20, 08:06 AM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Post something with some facts behind it and you'll get better debates. The internet can be your friend or it can lead you to some of the wildest stuff around. Answer me this. While Wuhan was in lockdown is it possible that they had a situation similar to New York City where refrigerator trucks were backed up to hospitals because the crematoriums couldn't keep up? Given that possibility wouldn't you expect that as the lockdown lifts that urns and overtime at those crematoriums might be part of recovering from the dead already counted as opposed to some new dead that can't be counted by conspiracy theorists?

Your turn?
Everything I posted was factual. What you're posting is a theory to try and explain it away, and trying to spin it by asking questions. Sure, they could have had a similar situation as NYC. And I couild win the 100 million dollar lottery next week. Anything is possible.

The Chinese Communist Party was caught lying back in November and were (and still are) covered by their lapdogs at the WHO who refuse to even acknowledge the existence of Taiwan. They lied when they said the virus was not transferable between humans. But you still believe their claims today. They lied about horseshoe bats being sold in wet markets in Wuhan (they were only in their two laboratories there, they weren't sold in the markets). But you still believe their claims today. Chinese doctors who tried to warn the rest of the world have disappeared. But you still believe their claims today. Citizens who have publicly criticized the response of the Chinese Communist Party toward the virus have disappeared. But you still believe their claims today. Those are facts and inexplicably they don't seem to give you any concern about the honesty of the Chinese Communist Party. You don't even question why those people have disappeared. That alone would give a normal person a reason to not believe a freaking thing those communists say.

Do I know how many people have died in China? No. Do I believe anything that comes out of the Chinese Communist Party propaganda machine? You have to be kidding me. When it's all said and done and the real truth comes out as it always does I suspect the deaths in China will be mind boggling. I feel sorry for the citizens there who have to live under that kind of government.
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Old 04-02-20, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Lazyass View Post
Everything I posted was factual. What you're posting is a theory to try and explain it away, and trying to spin it by asking questions. Sure, they could have had a similar situation as NYC. And I couild win the 100 million dollar lottery next week. Anything is possible.

The Chinese Communist Party was caught lying back in November and were (and still are) covered by their lapdogs at the WHO who refuse to even acknowledge the existence of Taiwan. They lied when they said the virus was not transferable between humans. But you still believe their claims today. They lied about horseshoe bats being sold in wet markets in Wuhan (they were only in their two laboratories there, they weren't sold in the markets). But you still believe their claims today. Chinese doctors who tried to warn the rest of the world have disappeared. But you still believe their claims today. Citizens who have publicly criticized the response of the Chinese Communist Party toward the virus have disappeared. But you still believe their claims today. Those are facts and inexplicably they don't seem to give you any concern about the honesty of the Chinese Communist Party. You don't even question why those people have disappeared. That alone would give a normal person a reason to not believe a freaking thing those communists say.

Do I know how many people have died in China? No. Do I believe anything that comes out of the Chinese Communist Party propaganda machine? You have to be kidding me. When it's all said and done and the real truth comes out as it always does I suspect the deaths in China will be mind boggling. I feel sorry for the citizens there who have to live under that kind of government.
Have you ever noticed that all conspiracy theories require that someone is lying and that the theorist is the only one who knows the truth.
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Old 04-02-20, 08:11 AM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Have you ever noticed that all conspiracy theories require that someone is lying and that the theorist is the only one who knows the truth.
Is that a response?
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Old 04-02-20, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Have you ever noticed that all conspiracy theories require that someone is lying and that the theorist is the only one who knows the truth.

I'm betting you're going to regret posting all this crap in about 10 days.
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Old 04-02-20, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
I'm betting you're going to regret posting all this crap in about 10 days.
Perhaps, but then someone in this thread is actually talking to people who live in Wuhan while others are guessing.

For example, news last week included stories about rioting in Wuhan after the lockdown was lifted yet people we are talking to are telling us that the majority of Wuhan will be allowed out of their apartments on April 8. Who should I believe?
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Old 04-02-20, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
I'm betting you're going to regret posting all this crap in about 10 days.
He would have believed the initial claims from the USSR about the Chernobyl explosion.
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Old 04-02-20, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Lazyass View Post
Is that a response?
Yes. It seems that you could learn something from it.
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Old 04-02-20, 08:18 AM
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An excerpt from Foreign Policy on Chinese numbers:

Chinese officials have been warned (link in Chinese) not to “hide cases for the sake of reporting zero.” But the leadership is also demanding close to zero new domestic cases. A series of purges before the pandemic has left officials on edge, and any local authorities unlucky enough to have an outbreak in their territory could be in grave political danger. Their response may be to conceal a local outbreak from the high-level authorities while using strict measures to contain it: reporting zero new cases while still quarantining neighborhoods or towns.Proxy measures. Given the unreliability of the official data, how can we judge the situation in China? One method used by Chinese leaders themselves is to look at proxy data that is less deliberately distorted to get an estimate of the real numbers. For example, residents in Wuhan have estimated the true death toll there by the urns handed out to families, leading to guesses of 40,000 or more people dead.

Proxy approximations are rough at best: The urn estimates in Wuhan likely include anyone who died in the city during the two-month lockdown, not just deaths from COVID-19

Observed behavior. Another way of working out what’s happening in China is to look at how the authorities are behaving, rather than what they’re saying. Right now, that’s good news: Life is returning to quasi-normality in most of China, and physical distancing measures have been severely reduced. Hospitals aren’t overrun, and medical staff are being withdrawn from Wuhan. But there have also been sudden reversals, such as cinemas being reopened and closed again within a day. My best guess: The authorities believe the trend lines in China but are scared of the prospect of a second wave, and they are cautious about public spaces as a result.
.
The bottom line is that the Chinese numbers are too low, but nobody is sure by how much. Life is slowly returning to normal, which indicates that that there has been success in battling the epidemic, but it is not total.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01...se-xi-jinping/
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Old 04-02-20, 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Yes. It seems that you could learn something from it.
Such as?
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Old 04-02-20, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
An excerpt from Foreign Policy on Chinese numbers:



The bottom line is that the Chinese numbers are too low, but nobody is sure by how much. Life is slowly returning to normal, which indicates that that there has been success in battling the epidemic, but it is not total.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01...se-xi-jinping/
Why are the Chinese numbers too low? Is it impossible that they did in fact beat the numbers game with the lockdown that they imposed? Is this all based on an assumption that they couldn't have possibly reduced the death toll because no one else has? Is it simply impossible to believe this:
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Old 04-02-20, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Probably because my oldest son lives and teaches there (trapped here at the moment because international air travel is shut down). He teaches online 3 nights a week from here now and is in constant contact with actual real residents. I suppose all those 15 year old kids might be lying, but it seems to make more sense from real time witnesses than from crackpot conspiracy theories.
Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
You're right, those students must be held hostage with guns to their heads to write the silly things they write. It's probably a correct assumption.
Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Have you ever noticed that all conspiracy theories require that someone is lying and that the theorist is the only one who knows the truth.
Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Perhaps, but then someone in this thread is actually talking to people who live in Wuhan while others are guessing.
#1. I don't think any of us said the citizens of China or Wuhan are lying.

#2. If I was a 15 year old student, I'd be focusing on my studies* to better myself in the world I live in. If I was a parent of those 15 year old students, I'd guide and counsel my children how to live in that world, just as I do with my own children (now mostly grown).

* Okay, that's not entirely true. I'd also occupy my time with doing fun things and socializing with friends (electronically, of course).

#3. If facial recognition is used like it is to shame and fine jay walkers in Chinese cities, I sure wouldn't be saying anything questionable by the Chinese government over an internet camera to the west.

"So far, the feeling of being surveilled constantly seems to be more of a deterrent than the facial recognition technology itself."
https://www.npr.org/2019/12/16/78859...ion-technology

A long PBS TV show below with bits about facial recognition in China within.


Last edited by FiftySix; 04-02-20 at 10:11 AM. Reason: asterisk
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Old 04-02-20, 10:29 AM
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Of course one can use a conspiracy theory to prove a conspiracy theory. Americans need to get out more.

Wasting time here.. bye.
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Old 04-02-20, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
#1. I don't think any of us said the citizens of China or Wuhan are lying.

#2 . If I was a 15 year old student, I'd be focusing on my studies* to better myself in the world I live in. If I was a parent of those 15 year old students, I'd guide and counsel my children how to live in that world, just as I do with my own children (now mostly grown).

* Okay, that's not entirely true. I'd also occupy my time with doing fun things and socializing with friends (electronically, of course).

#3 . If facial recognition is used like it is to shame and fine jay walkers in Chinese cities, I sure wouldn't be saying anything questionable by the Chinese government over an internet camera to the west.

"So far, the feeling of being surveilled constantly seems to be more of a deterrent than the facial recognition technology itself."
https://www.npr.org/2019/12/16/78859...ion-technology

A long PBS TV show below with bits about facial recognition in China within.

https://youtu.be/5dZ_lvDgevk

Yes, we're supposed to believe that China has a police state so effective that it can reduce the spread sufficiently to produce a death rate of zero, but not effective enough for people to know they should keep their mouths shut.

skookum 's link to Foreign Policy is devastating. That is not a conspiracy theory journal by anyone sane's estimation.
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Old 04-02-20, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
China watchers say..................
And our intelligence agencies, but you know what Trump says about them.
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Old 04-02-20, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
And our intelligence agencies, but you know what Trump says about them.
Tell me what you make of this. You've read enough internet articles.

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elligence-says
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Old 04-02-20, 12:07 PM
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I think if you did a search and replace, China to Iran, bombs would already be flying.

Personally, I don't know. We're hearing claims both ways. Given the situation I put more weight on our intelligence, I'd be more doubtful of them if there was an obvious motive to lie, like when we went into Iraq.

For what it's worth, I also put more weight on what you've told us about your son. China is a huge country and adept at controlling the spread of information within, it might be something like his location in China was never very heavily infected? Again I don't know.

But when I weigh everything together, common sense plus intelligence wins. Maybe partly because I really hope China managed to get this under control, that would mean we should be able to, too.
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Old 04-02-20, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Tell me what you make of this. You've read enough internet articles.

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elligence-says

I think you better brush up on your recipes for crow. You're going to be eating some pretty quick.
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Old 04-02-20, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
I think if you did a search and replace, China to Iran, bombs would already be flying.

Personally, I don't know. We're hearing claims both ways. Given the situation I put more weight on our intelligence, I'd be more doubtful of them if there was an obvious motive to lie, like when we went into Iraq.

For what it's worth, I also put more weight on what you've told us about your son. China is a huge country and adept at controlling the spread of information within, it might be something like his location in China was never very heavily infected? Again I don't know.

But when I weigh everything together, common sense plus intelligence wins. Maybe partly because I really hope China managed to get this under control, that would mean we should be able to, too.
He lives in ShenZhen in Guandong province and yes, they were spared the worst of the virus. They did go through a lockdown and his school hasn't reopened yet but the theme parks are open there and people are slowly sticking their heads out. He is in communication with a fellow American teacher who managed to get back to his family in Wuhan however. That's where we found out the the population of Wuhan will be free to go out on the 8th of April.

I was hoping that because you are used to reading links posted in P&R that you would notice that this one was based on "unnamed" sources and government officials said rather than presenting a lot of facts. It's typical of much of what is posted on the internet these days. I have an article for you on how the Chinese did it and why it isn't going to happen here. The actions taken during their lockdown would put armed "my rights" militants into our streets. We do not have the cultural background to stay in a total lockdown voluntarily because it's our duty. They do.
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Old 04-02-20, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
He lives in ShenZhen in Guandong province and yes, they were spared the worst of the virus. They did go through a lockdown and his school hasn't reopened yet but the theme parks are open there and people are slowly sticking their heads out. He is in communication with a fellow American teacher who managed to get back to his family in Wuhan however. That's where we found out the the population of Wuhan will be free to go out on the 8th of April.

I was hoping that because you are used to reading links posted in P&R that you would notice that this one was based on "unnamed" sources and government officials said rather than presenting a lot of facts. It's typical of much of what is posted on the internet these days. I have an article for you on how the Chinese did it and why it isn't going to happen here. The actions taken during their lockdown would put armed "my rights" militants into our streets. We do not have the cultural background to stay in a total lockdown voluntarily because it's our duty. They do.
Post a link to the article. The only link you've posted in this entire thread was a link previously posted by others. We only have your word of what you say your son has told you. It's the same as overhearing a Rush Limbaugh broadcast where he gives no sources (ever) and simply says "trust me". There are only a handful of people in this world that I believe when they tell me something without verification.
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