john m flores 

Like other Boomer-era recreational activities (skiing, tennis, motorcycling, bowling, etc...) cycling is facing a reset as Boomers age out. It was trending in this direction before COVID hit and after the boom runs the risk of continuing in this direction. This Fortune analysis forecasts continued growth though, predicated upon continued growth of ebikes and increased focus on building bike infrastructure to reduce the reliance on GHG emitting car trips.

As I've said elsewhere, we need to welcome the ebike community into our fold because they'll continue to trend upward and draw the attention of public officials. They'll be the driving force behind improved bicycle infrastructure and we spurn them at our own peril

https://www.fortunebusinessinsights....-market-104524

philbob57

I'm not sure what Shimano's markup is. A 13% loss in volume might hurt a lot more than 40%.

I don't understand the title of this thread. Does the collapse end this year? Or does the boom?

rsbob 

I am obviously missing something about this statement.

icemilkcoffee 

I was all set to dispute this assertion, and then I looked up this study from 2018:
https://prismic-io.s3.amazonaws.com/...tion_Study.pdf
And sure enough, it is true. Among those aged 18-24,, 18% had never ridden a bicycle before. Whereas among those aged 55+, only 11% never rode a bike. It's mindboggling that almost 1 in 5 youths grew up never learning to bicycle.
But nonetheless I don't really think cycling was or is trending down. In a lot of Northern European countries, they are building and adding bicycle infrastructure like crazy. Even China in recent years is adding bike lanes and infrastructure. Here in the US, NYC added a whole lot of bike lanes in the last 2 decades or so. Although the US as a whole is slow to embrace cycling as transportation, I think eventually we will follow suit. So I think there is a future for bicycles.

Darth Lefty 

Honestly I think the industry as a whole has weathered this pretty well. Both Covid and the e-bike backlash. There's been lots of news of layoffs but Shimano or Trek isn't going bankrupt

The bike industry has spread the e-bike love across nearly every brand. The major brands have nearly all kept their e-bikes looking and riding like bicycles with lightweight pedal-assist systems. This keeps them on the happy side of the popular opinion so they stay out of regulation. It would have been easy for any or all of them to go full 100lb Sur-Ron monsters but they didn't, leaving that a kooky niche. So when that kooky niche will get regulated to follow motorcycle laws, just like what happened to gas mopeds, e-bikes largely will come out ok.

Idly watching Youtube I came across a retrospective on Heely shoes, the ones with a rollerskate wheel in the heel. They launched in 2000 and were a huge hit 2001-2007. They did an IPO. In 2007 they had a market cap of a cool billion 2007 dollars. And after that they just cratered. The fad was over, helped along by a backlash from schools and malls. The brand is worth about 1% of that now. I wonder if the One Wheel guys are watching out for that

auggiedawg

Buy a Canyon. Service it at a not S/Trek/Scott dealership.

Chuck Naill

The mountain bikers here look to be in their twenties and thirties. Their bikes are high end and their apparel state of the art. Sometime after graduate school, they learned to ride I guess...

big john

It could still re-open if a buyer is found.
About VanMoof's current situation : Support

SkinGriz

I think the idea is any loss of volume can hurt more or less depending on the reasons why.

If I lose 40% volume but it’s due to supply shortages and I can charge twice as much per finished product.

Vs.

I lose 14% volume simply because demand isn’t there so I have to lower prices.

SkinGriz

If you want to prop up the C suite of the military industrial complex or big pharma. Otherwise no.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Para..._broken_window

wheelreason

It's a bit more nuanced than the numbers appear to make it, Yes, cycling as a whole (as are most other outdoor activities) is in decline, however a majority of enthusiat cycling categories are rising or holding steady, additionally there is quite a bit of difference depending on location. And E-bike$....

mpetry912 

a classic pump and dump model. Somebody cashed out. I agree, don't think that will happen to the bike industry.

I do think the top end of the market is struggling to find out where to go next, as "innovation" if that's what you want to call it has sorta maxed out.

the cost of retail space is another headwind that the industry is facing. Service is impossible to do virtually and the D to C model just does not meet the needs of most consumers.

in spite of the fires and safety concerns I am a big fan of the e-bike, I think it is where the industry needs to go. Anything that gets people out of their cars is a Good Thing in my view.

/markp

unterhausen

Were there any bike industry stocks that went up during the short-lived boom we just went through? I don't count Peloton, because they aren't really a bike company. Closest they ever get to the bike industry is parking their service trucks in bike lanes

More in keeping with the subject of this thread, I'm wondering how Wahoo is doing.

Rick_D

Hunch that most folks, other than dedicated cyclists think every e-bike is like a Jump/Lime rental, which you aren't required to pedal even a little, if you don't want to. We were inundated with them just before covid, then they more or less disappeared after Uber dumped the brand, but they're coming back. Outnumbered by e-scooters though.

Biggest segment I observe locally of owned e-bikes are the oversize fat tire models, many outfitted with a boom box. Whee! Guessing they run 60+ pounds out of the box and most seem Class 3. I proceed cautiously around those, assuming they're not passing me from behind.

duffer1960

For me, it's batteries and motors and computers and the relatively complicated drivetrain that I can't maintain myself. Batteries that will certainly have to be replaced at some point no matter how much or how little I use it, and with the recent trend of mfr's locking out independent parts and repair, and the probability they'll obsolete it altogether, would require an expert kludge or to get a whole new bike. Batteries that have an unfortunate tendency to set fire to themselves and the building they're housed in. First and ongoing cost. Weight. That I need the exercise anyway. Not going there yet, myself.

plumberroy

Except for the local M.U.P.s most of the e-bikes I am seeing locally are type 2-3 . Lot of the little 2 cycle gas engines too. Local bike paths only allow type 1 e-bikes

LV2TNDM

Why would you conclude that e-bikes will just morph into e-motorcycles and everyone will stop pedaling? Motorcycles have been an alternative to a pedal bike for over a hundred years, yet the bicycle hasn't been abandoned in that time.

No, pedal e-bikes will continue to exist, as bicycle path and trail regulations/restrictions will continue. Surrons, Cakes, et all will always be illegal in our recreational areas where hiking and bicycling are allowed & encouraged.

That said, I do indeed hope the electric bicycle and motorcycle boom have enough impact to affect change to our transportation landscape. An electric bike has a much, much, MUCH smaller carbon and transportation footprint than an electric car. In fact, we're quickly going to learn that our roads and highways are going to suffer faster degradation as these even heavier vehicles degrade surfaces even faster. Great, expect our blown-out potholed streets, highways & freeways to get worse, much worse. As I've posted before, "The path to planet gridlock is paved with green intentions!" Nothing more annoying than the arrogant driver in his electric vehicle, patting himself on the back as he adds to the millions of single-occupant vehicles contributing to bumper-to-bumper traffic and urban gridlock. This is why the electric car is NOT the solution. E-bikes could be.