'In NYC, Cycling Deaths Increase But Gears Turn Slowly On Safety Measures'
#1
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'In NYC, Cycling Deaths Increase But Gears Turn Slowly On Safety Measures'
19 cyclist deaths in NYC this year - people blame Mayor de Blasio's insufficient zeal in pursuit of Vision Zero. From NPR's All Things Considered
https://www.npr.org/2019/08/14/75121...afety-measures
https://www.npr.org/2019/08/14/75121...afety-measures
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If, as the article states, bicycling has doubled in NYC while the number of deaths per year has been pretty constant, bicycling is safer in NYC than it had been.
This is starting to be used as a "nothing works" argument , and focusing on the impossible goal of zero deaths is falling into this obvious political trap. The argument needs to be refocused, pointing out there have been safety gains in NYC, and that it will get better if more is done.
This is starting to be used as a "nothing works" argument , and focusing on the impossible goal of zero deaths is falling into this obvious political trap. The argument needs to be refocused, pointing out there have been safety gains in NYC, and that it will get better if more is done.
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#3
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The article doesn't say how many of those 19 cycling deaths were in bike lanes, where bike lanes disappear or on streets that never had bike lanes.
There's a learning curve by both drivers and cyclists to get over.
The only way cycling and pedestrian deaths would reach and maintain zero is when driver deaths and collisions reach and maintain zero.
There's a learning curve by both drivers and cyclists to get over.
The only way cycling and pedestrian deaths would reach and maintain zero is when driver deaths and collisions reach and maintain zero.
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I am a boating safety professional by trade. Understanding cycling safety has similar challenges. To have decent data, you need to know the number of "exposure hours." It is just not possible to get reliable exposure hour data for cyclists. While you can make some inferences based on the estimated total number of cyclists, you really can't arrive at a point of data reliability doing so. We don't have very good non-fatal accident data at all. We do have decent fatality numbers, but the raw numbers are so small that it's difficult to gain statistical significance in the amount of movement we see either way. The information we have surrounding the circumstances of those fatalities is often unreliable or incomplete as well. I am certainly not saying there's not any worth in the data we have, it's just that we will have to accept that some things will remain a relative mystery.
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#5
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I cited it because a story about bicycling made the national news. That's what's news about it. Bicycling used to be for kiddies. No one covered the Tour de France; it wasn't an Olympic sport; bicycling fatalities weren't news.
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If you disagree with what I posted, I'll be very happy to discuss that. I know you take a lot of guff for putting up links without comment, but I'm not one of the people who criticize you for that. I think it's fine.
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Actually, New York City has pretty good tracking of pedestrian/cyclist INJURIES and pedestrian/cyclist DEATHS. They also have pretty good estimates of pedestrian/cyclist trips/distance travelled. They also have a good tracking of injury/death in motor vehicle crashes.
Bottom line - folks are correct. You check safety in mines by canaries (leading indicators), not dead miners.
(Related, did you know that the "safety metrics" tracked by BP/Transocean such as number of open coffee cups carried on stairs had NOTHING to do with the actually safety of operations? But they were SPECACTULARY GOOD.)
Anyhow, the injury stats in New York City says that things are getting WORSE for pedestrians/cyclists, while getting better for motor vehicle drivers and passengers. Raw numbers and rates.
Zero vision.
-mr. bill
Bottom line - folks are correct. You check safety in mines by canaries (leading indicators), not dead miners.
(Related, did you know that the "safety metrics" tracked by BP/Transocean such as number of open coffee cups carried on stairs had NOTHING to do with the actually safety of operations? But they were SPECACTULARY GOOD.)
Anyhow, the injury stats in New York City says that things are getting WORSE for pedestrians/cyclists, while getting better for motor vehicle drivers and passengers. Raw numbers and rates.
Zero vision.
-mr. bill
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'New York Needs to Move Aggressively to Protect Cyclists and Pedestrians'
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Source? Over what time period? As I'm sure you're aware, you can cook the characterization of the "trend" by picking an atypically low year as your starting point and working from there. As they say, figures don't spin, but spinners figure. If the figures get spun to indicate that there's a trend towards worse at the same time safety measures are increasing, that makes for a pretty bad case for finishing the project.
That said, if the figures for the amount of cycling are crap, any casualty rate figure derived from them will also be crap.
#11
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When metal helmets were implemented in World War 1, hospitals noted that head injuries went way up. So metal helmets are no good?
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Year to date bicycle injuries/deaths are up significantly from year to date bicycle injuries/deaths from last year. While the deaths number is noise, the injury numbers are not noise.
Million bicycle trip numbers haven't been released yet by the city for 2018 or 2019 (lags a bit), but the increase in injuries is well outside of being caused by any plausible increase in million bicycle trips this year.
So sorry you can't "crap" your way out of the bad news with noisy denominators.
You can't even throw other "crap" to get your way out of this bad news.
Number of total motor vehicle crashes ytd last year was greater, number of motor vehicle crashes ytd last year without injury was greater, but the number of motor vehicle crashes ytd with injury or death is statistically the same.
New York City has open data. Use the source Luke.
-mr. bill
Last edited by mr_bill; 08-16-19 at 05:30 PM.
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Gothamist Opinion
“Komanoff, an economist, has headed several street-safety organizations including Transportation Alternatives.”
-mr. bill
“Komanoff, an economist, has headed several street-safety organizations including Transportation Alternatives.”
-mr. bill
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Year to date bicycle injuries/deaths are up significantly from year to date bicycle injuries/deaths from last year. While the deaths number is noise, the injury numbers are not noise.
Million bicycle trip numbers haven't been released yet by the city for 2018 or 2019 (lags a bit), but the increase in injuries is well outside of being caused by any plausible increase in million bicycle trips this year.
So sorry you can't "crap" your way out of the bad news with noisy denominators.
You can't even throw other "crap" to get your way out of this bad news.
Number of total motor vehicle crashes ytd last year was greater, number of motor vehicle crashes ytd last year without injury was greater, but the number of motor vehicle crashes ytd with injury or death is statistically the same.
New York City has open data. Use the source Luke.
-mr. bill
Million bicycle trip numbers haven't been released yet by the city for 2018 or 2019 (lags a bit), but the increase in injuries is well outside of being caused by any plausible increase in million bicycle trips this year.
So sorry you can't "crap" your way out of the bad news with noisy denominators.
You can't even throw other "crap" to get your way out of this bad news.
Number of total motor vehicle crashes ytd last year was greater, number of motor vehicle crashes ytd last year without injury was greater, but the number of motor vehicle crashes ytd with injury or death is statistically the same.
New York City has open data. Use the source Luke.
-mr. bill
I get that bicycle advocacy is all in for using "sky is falling" rhetoric about dangers to try to spur action, but long-term, I think it's a self-defeating strategy. It's discouraging to people who might want to try cycling and, in the case of NYC, if you actually convince people that things have gotten worse at the same time a bunch of infrastructure was put in, you're playing right into a "then why bother" backlash that will work against further improvements.
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I get that bicycle advocacy is all in for using "sky is falling" rhetoric about dangers to try to spur action, but long-term, I think it's a self-defeating strategy. It's discouraging to people who might want to try cycling and, in the case of NYC, if you actually convince people that things have gotten worse at the same time a bunch of infrastructure was put in, you're playing right into a "then why bother" backlash that will work against further improvements.
Truth matters, and something is going on with traffic safety in NYC. It’s not the weather.
-mr. bill
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Just because the air quality is far better than it was in the 70s (NYC) or 50s (London) we should not publish AQI because cynics might backlash against the money we spend fighting air polution?
Truth matters, and something is going on with traffic safety in NYC. It’s not the weather.
-mr. bill
Truth matters, and something is going on with traffic safety in NYC. It’s not the weather.
-mr. bill
And the analogy you're looking for would be people trying to lobby for more pollution controls by claiming that the ones that have been implemented so far haven't done any good. I'm not criticizing the collection and release of data, I'm criticizing your misrepresentation of it.
#19
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/n...eaths-nyc.html
The horrific death of a cyclist has intensified debate over whether drivers are being treated too leniently.
The horrific death of a cyclist has intensified debate over whether drivers are being treated too leniently.
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And the analogy you're looking for would be people trying to lobby for more pollution controls by claiming that the ones that have been implemented so far haven't done any good. I'm not criticizing the collection and release of data, I'm criticizing your misrepresentation of it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/n...eaths-nyc.html
The horrific death of a cyclist has intensified debate over whether drivers are being treated too leniently.
The horrific death of a cyclist has intensified debate over whether drivers are being treated too leniently.
-mr. bill
#21
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Raw numbers really don't tell you anything. If the number of deaths double but the number of riders increase by 3x, then things actually are safer. Anytime I see a story hyping a raw number I know it's not worth reading. Rates are what count.
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