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It's not a hoax

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It's not a hoax

Old 04-19-20, 05:42 PM
  #376  
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Originally Posted by CoogansBluff View Post
Don't know if this is the thread to post this observation, but I passed what appeared to be about a 7-person group ride today. Then 2 other riders about 1/5 mile back who may or may not have been with them. Makes me wonder if more of these might start cropping up. I won't be riding among them, but had to wonder what they were doing.
Depends where you are. San Clemente a lot of groups still ride. We have to ride more in the roads as the paths are so full of people as the parks and bike paths have been closed.

I live on a golf course. It was typical to have 4 folks every 15 min at a T (or golf math). We now have 5X as many as the golf course is shut down. Dogs, strollers, runners, kids, Frizbee.
I expect it is because folks in this neighborhood think their risk is low. City officials filled a skate part with sand. Where do you think those teens are now, and what are they doing. I doubt they are at home.

I'm not sure anything has much changed, and in many cases, we increase density as we shut down areas were the public used to gather.

Last edited by Doge; 04-19-20 at 06:05 PM.
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Old 04-19-20, 05:56 PM
  #377  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Well, I for one am completely convinced by your magical wishful thinking. Let's open up the economy immediately! American Exceptionalism at its finest: superimposed on CA exceptionalism.

Odd that there were no hospitalizations or deaths that occurred with that initial wave of infections that immunized everyone. But don't let mere facts get in the way of magical wishful thinking.
It's a little more scientific than magical wishful thinking. Humans are rubbish at estimating exponential growth: https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...67487016306596
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_...sboard_problem

California had a flu that had symptoms that were the same as CV-19 (apart from the dying bit of course), it even made it all the way to Antarctica where it rampaged through the US and New Zealand base there, since flights to NZ and on to Antarctica originate out of California. I know, I got it and it sucked. Dry cough, chest complications etc etc. So kind of understandable people would be confused.
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Old 04-19-20, 05:57 PM
  #378  
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
Depends where you are. San Clemente a lot of groups still ride. We have to ride more in the roads as the paths are so full of people as the parks and bike paths have been closed.
Agree about the paths, too crowded. I've been seeing probably twice the number of solo riders on the roads around here (Raleigh). But today was the first time since the governor's stay-at-home order some three weeks ago that I've seen what resembled a true group ride. It would violate the ''everyone should stay at least six feet apart'' directive. All local clubs have shut them down. I won't judge it immediately. But as much as I miss group rides, I'm not going to participate for a while. I'll just wave and hope they're safe.
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Old 04-19-20, 05:59 PM
  #379  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Well, I for one am completely convinced by your magical wishful thinking. Let's open up the economy immediately! American Exceptionalism at its finest: superimposed on CA exceptionalism.

Odd that there were no hospitalizations or deaths that occurred with that initial wave of infections that immunized everyone. But don't let mere facts get in the way of magical wishful thinking.
In all but a few places, and I don't know where that is, hospitals are tooled up. That is what the curve flattening was about. Hoag Hospital is furloughing people. They typically have single digit number of COVID-19 patients. Why should an area that has things under control and had the virus in Jan be under restrictions that aren't working for everyone else.

But to the USA, it is not wishful thinking. More would die. Mostly from behaviors they choose.
There are some population centers that have a big problem, NYC, NJ, areas of LA, New Orleans - so let's keep them out and focus on the other 90%.


The rest of the country, the other 250M-300M have total deaths matching what those few places add up to.
So, sure, I would open up the economy other areas making it like the the 2017/2018 flu.

Sweden is just a bit higher deaths / million than USA. They are building immunity. They advocate safe behaviors.

Me, I would open the economy up for the 1st amendment alone. I don't really see that this lockdown is reducing deaths.

Last edited by Doge; 04-19-20 at 06:04 PM.
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Old 04-19-20, 06:13 PM
  #380  
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So there are fewer deaths in California. This cannot be due to the shelter-in-place orders, because I don't like them. Therefore it must be that large parts of the population were previously exposed to the virus, and miraculously avoided what is happening in NYC, or anything even hinting of a blip greater than an ordinary flu season.

Makes total sense.
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Old 04-19-20, 06:17 PM
  #381  
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I do not think it is a hoax. But I do think this is much more regional than what should be controlled by governors and we have let models overrule data.
A month ago I was posting that CA was not going to be like Italy. That the numbers were already off then. It was obvious then CA did not have an issue, but we locked ourselves down anyway, for mostly nothing because I think we are as close as we ever were.
https://www.bikeforums.net/21375436-post64.html
There were counties in NC that had predicted 8,000 cases, getting <400 (I have pictures if needed) by March 31st. It took another 2 weeks before we started hearing how bad models were.
As that was in a racing forum and the truth was really bothering people, I stopped posting for a bit.
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Old 04-19-20, 06:33 PM
  #382  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
So there are fewer deaths in California. This cannot be due to the shelter-in-place orders, because I don't like them. Therefore it must be that large parts of the population were previously exposed to the virus, and miraculously avoided what is happening in NYC, or anything even hinting of a blip greater than an ordinary flu season.

Makes total sense.
See my next post and the ones above. Sheltering in place has changed little. Before sheltering in place the numbers were off and my post 30 days ago said that.
My explanation was, and is that since Nov thousands from the infected regions of China were flying into SFO and LAX. The LAX folks head to Irvine. SFO, to SFO. Populations like LA city and East Bay are the only areas in CA with case issues. The heavy Chinese destination areas of Irvine and SFO are not even seeing flu like level from January until now.

We all thought it was just a flu when we all got pretty much the same symptoms in Jan. My buddy had his 3 kids visit SFO, they all got this dry cough thing. I got it, as did my wife, my daughter lives there. By the time Hoag got its first official patient in January, he had flown from China to LAX, spent a few weeks in the area and was in Irvine. He had the same symptoms we did. He was released, brought back, 4 days later after testing positive.

So either this thing is totally weak, or we had it.

I don't have an explanation for NYC, other than it likely came in from Europe. It may be a different strain that hammered the Italian, and now Belgians.
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Old 04-19-20, 06:35 PM
  #383  
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Nothing personal, but I really don't want to stake thousands of lives on special pleading arguments and anecdotes.
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Old 04-19-20, 06:38 PM
  #384  
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...sometimes I need to be reminded why I chose to live in Northern California. This is one of those reminders. smh
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Old 04-19-20, 06:51 PM
  #385  
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
I do not think it is a hoax. But I do think this is much more regional than what should be controlled by governors and we have let models overrule data.
A month ago I was posting that CA was not going to be like Italy. That the numbers were already off then. It was obvious then CA did not have an issue, but we locked ourselves down anyway, for mostly nothing because I think we are as close as we ever were.
https://www.bikeforums.net/21375436-post64.html
There were counties in NC that had predicted 8,000 cases, getting <400 (I have pictures if needed) by March 31st. It took another 2 weeks before we started hearing how bad models were.
As that was in a racing forum and the truth was really bothering people, I stopped posting for a bit.
The models might be crap. Isn't that great?! The people hired by our various departments of health erred in keeping us safe, and kept us too safe. What a bunch of dictators on a power trip!! How dare they!
Are they going to ease restrictions because we want them to? Maybe. Should we be performing widespread testing surveillance to figure how dangerous this disease actually is? Probably.
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Old 04-19-20, 07:06 PM
  #386  
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Originally Posted by Unca_Sam View Post
The models might be crap. Isn't that great?! The people hired by our various departments of health erred in keeping us safe, and kept us too safe. What a bunch of dictators on a power trip!! How dare they!
Yes, I think they are a bunch of dictators.

Read about those that refused to work in the nursing home.

Separately from below the USAFA officers that just graduated yesterday how none died from COVID-19, while two committed suicide in 3 days (my son's classmates).
Alcohol use up 50%, domestic violence up, child abuse up. We don't know how much safety we can take.
And then - we still need to get back to society and we still are not immune - unless we got it.

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Old 04-19-20, 07:09 PM
  #387  
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Someone really needs to tell all those corpses piling up that it is all in their head.
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Old 04-19-20, 07:45 PM
  #388  
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Originally Posted by Unca_Sam View Post
Are you able to provide some published information about this 'covid-19 bonus $$' we keep reading about. I want to get in on that action.
Here is documentation for the source of the claim: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/me...ovid-patients/
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Old 04-19-20, 07:47 PM
  #389  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Here is documentation for the source of the claim: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/me...ovid-patients/
Thanks. I had seen it before.
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Old 04-19-20, 07:52 PM
  #390  
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How can anyone think the distancing measures didn't save lives? Would the virus just not have spread out of charity?
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Old 04-19-20, 08:11 PM
  #391  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
How can anyone think the distancing measures didn't save lives? Would the virus just not have spread out of charity?
...there's a theory (I know right ? ), that somehow California (I had heard NorCal and the Bay Area when I heard it), because we had a worse than normal flu season last year, might have gotten this virus way earlier than anyone supposes. So according to this theory, a lot of the population here has already had or been exposed to Corona 19, thus there is widespread immunity, and all the closings and stay at homes were for no good reason here.

I believe it was originally advanced by academics, based on some studies of the evolution of the various virus strains they had sampled.

To believe it, you'd need to ignore all the early history of the arrival and spread here in February and March of this year, which would make little sense if there is, indeed, widespread immunity. The people who like this idea always had some sort of cold or flu like illness back last fall or early this year, recovered from it, and are certain they are now immune to Covid 19. In fact, I had a bad cold in January, so I must also be immune.

I already got points for a general comment on nutjobs a couple of weeks ago, so I promised I wouldn't do it any more. But sometimes it's hard.
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Old 04-19-20, 08:16 PM
  #392  
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I would trust a radiologist's advice about an epidemic about the same as I'd trust a dermatologist's reading of an ultrasound, Doge.
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Old 04-19-20, 09:09 PM
  #393  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
How can anyone think the distancing measures didn't save lives? Would the virus just not have spread out of charity?
I read it on Fakebook, so it has to be true.
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Old 04-19-20, 09:37 PM
  #394  
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Trevor Bedford

I’d give 0.0% probability that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating with community transmission in the US in or before Nov 2019. I’d give 5-10% probability of a case or three that arrived in late Dec that we missed and didn’t result in onward transmission. But really it’s January.
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Old 04-19-20, 11:33 PM
  #395  
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  • US deaths passed 40,000 on Sunday – nearly a quarter of the global total – with infections at just under 760,000, or just under a third of the world’s total.
That herd immunity and protection from the stealth early wave of infections no one noticed is really helping.
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Old 04-19-20, 11:55 PM
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Don't get me wrong; I want answers about the number of asymptomatic cases too so we can have a clearer picture about just how dangerous this is. If it's slightly more dangerous than a bad cold, then the mitigation measures are: 1) likely failing, and 2) generally unnecessary.

I see little wisdom in the rush towards herd immunity. The bans on large groups, advice to shelter at home, and mask wearing are meant to slow the spread so much that the virus can't reach new hosts in time. It also buys the researchers time to complete and publish their studies, just in case this virus is as lethal as suggested.
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Old 04-20-20, 01:47 AM
  #397  
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We see many celebrities getting COVID-19; I did rough calculations & found that celebrities seem to have a 500x greater chance of infection than regular folks. Tom Hanks, Placido Domingo, Boris Johnson, Prince Charles etc. NBA player Rudy Gobert who mocked things by touching microphones infected. Media gives these cases wide attention but offers no explanation in regard to celebrity susceptibility.

"Western" MSM only offers the party line about COVID-19 & completely ignores any dissent, even by qualified persons. MSM never mentions the odd coincidence of Event 201 (Corona pandemic simulation) being held 3 months before first COVID-19 infection. MSM breathlessly covered the emergency hospitals & wards set up incl the Navy hospital ship sent to NYC but now ignores that many of the facilities are going unused.

Western MSM readily accuses China gov't of lying about statistics. OK, but Western gov'ts/media lie about things all the time. Basically, if the US gov't cared about folks' health we'd have quality health care for all, not the terrible over-priced system we have. US media was quite hostile to Bernie Sanders who advocated Medicare-for-all. They said that was unaffordable but somehow it's OK for millions to be left destitute by COVID shutdowns.
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Old 04-20-20, 04:38 AM
  #398  
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Originally Posted by DropBarFan View Post
We see many celebrities getting COVID-19; I did rough calculations & found that celebrities seem to have a 500x greater chance of infection than regular folks. Tom Hanks, Placido Domingo, Boris Johnson, Prince Charles etc. NBA player Rudy Gobert who mocked things by touching microphones infected. Media gives these cases wide attention but offers no explanation in regard to celebrity susceptibility.
It's just due to proximity. Nothing suspicious. I've been around actors and entertainers since I was a kid in NYC. My stepdad was a filmmaker -- nobody you ever heard of but he had a knack for turning on the charm and schmoozing. And I've done theater, a ton of auditions, been an extra in a couple of movies, been acquainted with several actors who've called Texas home at some point, attended a lot of workshops and functions related to acting and productions. There's a lot more socializing in the entertainment biz than in most jobs, with almost exponentially larger affected circles of acquaintance and contacts. That's also true of some other jobs, but entertainers are also very huggy, touchy people. There's a lot more protracting handshakes (more like holding hands for awhile), hugging, kissyface hellos and goodbyes than in most jobs even when the other jobs involve comparable numbers of contacts, travel, etc. Corporate folks, athletes, etc., don't do a lot of hugging and kissing of everyone they meet. Even musicians and fine artists aren't nearly as huggy, touchy, kissy as actors.

"Western" MSM only offers the party line about COVID-19 & completely ignores any dissent, even by qualified persons. MSM never mentions the odd coincidence of Event 201 (Corona pandemic simulation) being held 3 months before first COVID-19 infection. MSM breathlessly covered the emergency hospitals & wards set up incl the Navy hospital ship sent to NYC but now ignores that many of the facilities are going unused.
I think we're seeing less transparency worldwide because many superpowers have joined the trend toward authoritarian regimes, which by nature are hyper-controlling, secretive and discourage transparency. Transparency and international cooperation were related to the now-fading post-Enlightenment classical liberal governments (in the traditional sense of the word, not the pejorative "LiBruL!" epithet so popular nowadays). The current authoritarianism trend will hinder efforts to get useful studies for years. Eventually historians, investigators, journalists and documentarians will sort out the facts but for now there's a lot of guesswork.

And the revolution in the news media, from print and broadcast to digital has both forced and enabled the biasing of how news is presented and prioritized in favor of clickbait. There may be useful, objective and verifiable news elsewhere in the article or on the news website, but their main priority is usually luring eyes onto the page for ad revenue.

Regarding the Navy hospital ship, it was a no-win assignment from the start, mostly a publicity stunt. And mostly incorrectly reported, or the limited nature of the mission was buried in the articles. There's no way the crew could both treat urgent care patients and not also become another vector. As with any crowded confined space the entire crew would quickly be infected and risk spreading it to anyone who was admitted. The very nature of a military urgent/emergency care center is primarily aimed at trauma, not infectious disease.

...Basically, if the US gov't cared about folks' health we'd have quality health care for all, not the terrible over-priced system we have...
A universal health care system would be more cost effective in the long run. Most consumers aren't aware of how much money is wasted by pretending we don't already have a poorly implemented universal health care system -- the 911 and ER system that generally cannot refuse to treatment emergency patients regardless of ability to pay. Police and fire emergency responders are often pressured into playing the roles of ad hoc social workers, at an exorbitant cost per call compared with a more effective mental health care system. Many folks receiving emergency care cannot pay, so eventually taxpayers pick up the tab one way or another. We're already paying for a half-@$$ed health care system and not getting the best value from care providers who are best qualified.

Not that a better health care system would have made much difference in terms of handling this early phase of the coronavirus pandemic. And in terms of a pandemic, this still is early. It's likely just as many people would have been infected. Better preparation might have reduced deaths. The main difference is that without a universal affordable health care system, many hundreds of thousands of people, possibly millions, will suffer devastating financial setbacks due to the pandemic.

Like taxes and long term government policies, a universal affordable health care system is primarily intended to encourage economic stability, domestic tranquility (to borrow a phrase from the Constitution) and overall continuity of the quality of life in the US. With this pandemic we're experiencing the equivalent to the devastating economic upheavals that rocked the US many times before taxation was increased, along with the stability of a larger government, and before the banking system was more heavily regulated and the role of managing the currency was assigned to experts who operate relatively unencumbered by every micro-shift in the political climate.
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Old 04-20-20, 05:55 AM
  #399  
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Originally Posted by DropBarFan View Post
MSM never mentions the odd coincidence of Event 201 (Corona pandemic simulation) being held 3 months before first COVID-19 infection.
"I wasn't worried about the probability we were due for a coronavirus pandemic (after SARS and MERS), so why were the people we've been paying all along to worry about pandemics interested all of a sudden?"
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Old 04-20-20, 06:51 AM
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Banks allowing 3 months without paying mortgage BUT all 3 months payments are due at end of the 3 months

thats not a hoax and definitely a mental health issue for many many folks

metrics on corona = opening up most states
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