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Reinfection

Old 05-03-20, 09:24 AM
  #51  
wgscott
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
Hereís an interesting story on the development of a vaccine for Ebola https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/07/...ebola-vaccine/ sounds like it took about 20yrs not 6 months. One problem was Ebola tends to occur sporadically in 3rd world countries so itís difficult to finance the work required to make and test a vaccine.

Covid-19 is obviously more prevalent but financial considerations will still likely play a role in how quickly a vaccine is made available. If it costs in the neighborhood of $1B to bring a vaccine to market, large pharmaceuticals arenít going to participate unless their costs are going to be covered. We could end up with multiple candidates with varying degrees of efficacy. Determining which, if any, make it to market is unlikely to happen quickly.
Seems like a compelling reason to have government labs and NIH-funded academic labs take lead the role. Then contract out its mass-production when the time comes. This should be a Manhattan-project level undertaking. We have an extraordinary army of talent just sitting this thing out, and chomping at the bit to do something productive. The lack of coordination is quite shocking.
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Old 05-03-20, 09:33 AM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
Hereís an interesting story on the development of a vaccine for Ebola https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/07/...ebola-vaccine/ sounds like it took about 20yrs not 6 months. One problem was Ebola tends to occur sporadically in 3rd world countries so itís difficult to finance the work required to make and test a vaccine.

Covid-19 is obviously more prevalent but financial considerations will still likely play a role in how quickly a vaccine is made available. If it costs in the neighborhood of $1B to bring a vaccine to market, large pharmaceuticals arenít going to participate unless their costs are going to be covered. We could end up with multiple candidates with varying degrees of efficacy. Determining which, if any, make it to market is unlikely to happen quickly.
If anybody is interested , video panel from the Office of Science and Society at McGill university with guest Dr. Paul Offit , one of the developers of the rota virus vaccine.
He talks about how that took over 20 years, but he says that this time there is such urgency to develop a Covid vaccine, that the time line will be compressed. He says that with Ebola vaccine, it was used before all of the trials had taken place, because it was the only way to do it. Some of the manufacturers of candidate vaccines are already making millions of doses, even though they don't know yet, if it will make it to trials, if that vaccine will ever be used. So he thinks it will be approved for limited use before all the trials are completed. The actual performance of the vaccine after preliminary approval will be the actual phase III trial. It will likely be given to vulnerable populations like health care workers .. The rotavirus vaccine had Phase III trials with 60 000 participants, whereas these covid vaccines might have trials of only a few thousand people, which makes it harder to detect rare side effects.
,
Interesting conversation with a vaccine expert total video is about 55 minutes, most of the interesting vaccine stuff is in the first half.

https://mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-...-dr-paul-offit
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Old 05-03-20, 09:40 AM
  #53  
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Didn't they have to withdraw the rotavirus vaccine because of problems?

Edit: It was an earlier version.

Originally Posted by webmd
Before being approved, the rotavirus vaccine was tested on more than 70,000 children and found to be safe. However, an earlier vaccine, called RotaShield, was removed from the market after being used for two years, because it was found to slightly increase the risk of intussusception -- a condition in which the small bowel folds back inside another part of the intestine, causing a bowel obstruction.

The RotaTeq and Rotarix vaccines now in use do not appear to increase this risk and are considered safe.
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Old 05-03-20, 09:59 AM
  #54  
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A coronavirus antibody test that is more than 99% accurate is now cleared for emergency use in the US, easing concerns of false positives that hindered earlier tests

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...141057975.html
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Old 05-03-20, 08:40 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
An interesting discussion on the topic ...

https://www.facebook.com/jenniferkas...031?__tn__=K-R
...
__________________
Proud parent of a happy inner child ...

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Old 05-05-20, 12:35 PM
  #56  
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Everybody who's been following this knows the virus mutated in Europe. There's speculation that people can be infected with both, if true (and that's a big if) this could explain some of the reports we've heard of people being infected a second time.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...cid=spartanntp
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Old 05-06-20, 03:31 AM
  #57  
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More speculation.

https://fromrome.info/2020/04/25/ita...d-on-covid-19/

Vittorio Sgarbi, denounces the closure of 60% of the businesses for 25,000 COVID-19 Deaths, of which the National Institute of Health says 96.3% died NOT of COVID-19 but of other pathologies. That means only 925 have died of the virus. 24,075 have died of other things.
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Old 05-06-20, 04:15 AM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
Looks like Italy has idiot politicians too, then. Figures, he's a member of Forza Italia.
https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/...t-ISS_-eng.pdf
TLDR summary: March Deaths 49% above the long term average. 91% of that excess was in provinces with the highest diagnosis rate for Covid-19.
Must have just been a coincidence that Covid-19 was at it's height then...
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Old 05-06-20, 10:20 PM
  #59  
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The parade of idiots never fails to amaze me.

Those poor goats, they didn't sign up for this!


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Old 05-15-20, 10:46 PM
  #60  
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uh oh
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...t-15273804.php

5 sailors aboard Roosevelt carrier retest positive for COVID-19 a 2nd time

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Old 05-15-20, 11:58 PM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
You're saying things would be better if more people died. That's something you can fix.

And if nobody at all had died, it would be even worse.

Tell me what you think the goal is?
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Old 05-20-20, 10:35 PM
  #62  
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Hell if I know?

Other than the usual mantra of guilty until proven innocent.

I'm still waiting for the massive body count, perhaps the 2nd wave ought to do the trick eh?


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Old 05-20-20, 11:40 PM
  #63  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
uh oh
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...t-15273804.php

5 sailors aboard Roosevelt carrier retest positive for COVID-19 a 2nd time

A note here:
https://www.bikeforums.net/coronavir...nfectious.html

Some "recovered" individuals may shed viral RNA, but not infectious particles.

Nonetheless, caution would be warranted, especially if risks are high. As noted later in that thread, "Grandma" was discharged from a hospital into a nursing home, and may have inadvertently lead to the deaths of multiple patients. Although, in that case, she was never tested for COVID-19 until later.
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Old 05-21-20, 12:58 AM
  #64  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
Hell if I know?

Other than the usual mantra of guilty until proven innocent.

I'm still waiting for the massive body count, perhaps the 2nd wave ought to do the trick eh?


90,000+ not enough for you?
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Old 05-21-20, 02:41 AM
  #65  
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
90,000+ not enough for you?
I didn't kill them, did you?


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Old 05-22-20, 05:27 PM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
I didn't kill them, did you?


How many of those deaths were folks who did NOT get vaccinated? I believe only 40% get vaccinated.
It's beginning to shake out that Covid-19 has a morality rate of .04%. Sounds low, but still 4x seasonal flu. What's .04% of 325,000,000???
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Old 05-24-20, 05:41 PM
  #67  
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Coronavirus patients no longer infectious after 11 days: study

https://nypost.com/2020/05/24/corona...11-days-study/

https://www.ams.edu.sg/view-pdf.aspx...20+(logos).pdf
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Old 05-24-20, 10:35 PM
  #68  
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post
You beat me to that. I'd take that with caution, but it is a good point that shedding RNA isn't necessarily sufficient to be infectious.

Are the virus signatures unique enough to identify the unique source of an infection?

However, one might consider discharging and releasing patients from isolation into low risk environments (home without elderly, at risk companions), but to continue to use caution when releasing them into high risk environments (nursing homes without other COVID patients).

Typhoid Mary might not be picked up with a study of a few hundred cases. But, she could be out there wandering the streets, or taking jobs as a cook or care worker.
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Old 05-25-20, 09:57 AM
  #69  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
Hell if I know?


​​​​​​That pretty much sums it up.
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Old 05-25-20, 01:16 PM
  #70  
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I'm late to this thread, but on the original subject of reinfection, testing positive a second time doesn't mean much when the test has known false positives.

Can anybody point to a report of a person having recovered from covid19 and then becoming both reinfected AND symptomatic?
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Old 06-09-20, 02:08 AM
  #71  
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We'll know for sure in a few months if reinfection is a thing.

I predict there will be worse problems, especially in the developed world. (including China)

Hopefully I'm wrong.


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