Go Back  Bike Forums > The Lounge > Coronavirus/COVID-19
Reload this Page >

Corona and the Future

Notices
Coronavirus/COVID-19 Discussion of the novel coronavirus

Corona and the Future

Old 04-30-20, 03:07 PM
  #1  
berner
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Bristol, R. I.
Posts: 4,179

Bikes: Specialized Secteur, old Peugeot

Mentioned: 18 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 591 Post(s)
Liked 364 Times in 231 Posts
Corona and the Future

I'm seeing more people wearing masks but there are still "conscientious objectors" out there or they may be plain stupid. For some reason there are too many who do not grasp the concept of exponential growth where one infected person can infect many others. As a consequence of poor Covid-19 distancing behavior I suspect this pandemic will be with us much longer than the masterminds in government realize.

A second problem I see is that even when many countries the world over get a handle on the pandemic within their borders, there are many third world countries that don't have resources to devote to this battle. The consequence of this is there will be cross border leakage, some of which will spill over onto those countries that otherwise would have had a handle on the situation. While a lock down may be eventually lifted, I'm getting my own mind ready for much longer battle. Those who are relying on a quick return to normal will be disappointment.
berner is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 03:19 PM
  #2  
rumrunn6
Senior Member
 
rumrunn6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: 25 miles northwest of Boston
Posts: 24,865

Bikes: Bottecchia Sprint, GT Timberline 29r

Mentioned: 103 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3720 Post(s)
Liked 842 Times in 586 Posts
Eager to see the results of some us states lifting some restrictions hoping a 2nd wave worse than the first won’t materialize
rumrunn6 is offline  
Likes For rumrunn6:
Old 04-30-20, 03:23 PM
  #3  
TrueEarl
Banned
 
TrueEarl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 8
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
Originally Posted by rumrunn6 View Post
Eager to see the results of some us states lifting some restrictions hoping a 2nd wave worse than the first won’t materialize
I agree completely!!!
TrueEarl is offline  
Likes For TrueEarl:
Old 04-30-20, 03:36 PM
  #4  
indyfabz
Senior Member
 
indyfabz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 27,018
Mentioned: 192 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11421 Post(s)
Liked 3,066 Times in 1,703 Posts
If the bars reopen you won’t see me at happy hour any time soon. You also won’t see me on a plane any time soon.
indyfabz is offline  
Likes For indyfabz:
Old 04-30-20, 04:23 PM
  #5  
Tusk
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 56

Bikes: 1986 Scwinn Prelude 20?? Motobecane Ti 'Le Champion"

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 34 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 24 Times in 15 Posts
Originally Posted by berner View Post
As a consequence of poor Covid-19 distancing behavior I suspect this pandemic will be with us much longer than the masterminds in government realize.
Fixed it for you.
Tusk is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 04:25 PM
  #6  
noisebeam
Arizona Dessert
 
noisebeam's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: AZ
Posts: 14,863

Bikes: Cannondale SuperSix, Lemond Poprad. Retired: Jamis Sputnik, Centurion LeMans Fixed, Diamond Back ascent ex

Mentioned: 63 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4236 Post(s)
Liked 847 Times in 476 Posts
I hope no one is claiming a return to normal for at least for a couple years. There will however be a shift to a new abnormal.
noisebeam is offline  
Likes For noisebeam:
Old 04-30-20, 05:57 PM
  #7  
wolfchild
Senior Member
 
wolfchild's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Mississauga/Toronto, Ontario canada
Posts: 6,217

Bikes: I have 3 singlespeed/fixed gear bikes

Mentioned: 21 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1826 Post(s)
Liked 477 Times in 259 Posts
The " new normal " is going to be a huge PITA for our society...Get ready for some serious social engineering and draconian measures to govern our daily lives....Oh and make sure to never sneeze, cough or blow your nose in public because you will be accused of spreading covid19 and the authorities will come after you, even if your sneezing was the result of seasonal allergy or some other thing which has nothing to do with covid19.
wolfchild is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 06:12 PM
  #8  
Trevtassie
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Down Under
Posts: 1,604

Bikes: A steel framed 26" off road tourer from a manufacturer who thinks they are cool. Giant Anthem. Trek 720 Multiroad pub bike. 10 kids bikes all under 20". Assorted waifs and unfinished projects.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 529 Post(s)
Liked 318 Times in 164 Posts
No masks in Australia, at least for the general population. Authorities reckoned they would cause more trouble than they stopped because people not used to wearing them would fiddle with them thus creating more spread, not less. Seems they were right, they went hard with the 1.5m rule instead.
Most of our outbreak now consists of age care, minimum wage casual workers going to work when they were sick, because they get no sick pay and spreading around the staff and residents because of a lack of training. Community transmission per day can be counted on one hand, for the whole country.
Lock downs being staged up to normality slowly.
Trevtassie is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 06:17 PM
  #9  
Mad Honk 
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2019
Location: Bloomington, IN
Posts: 996

Bikes: Trek 770, Trek 760, Schwinn Peloton, Patelli Professional, Othon Ochsner

Mentioned: 12 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 417 Post(s)
Liked 296 Times in 227 Posts
Interesting thoughts about the nay sayers out there. And the OP may be right about almost continuous re-infection hot spots. I live in a college town that had a Herpes virus spread though the community in the 1970's, and until they figured out how to isolate those with the virus it continued to spread. Same thing here when AIDs came through. Until social isolation, it spread without any way to stop it. We have had plenty of history to prepare us for viral outbreaks, we just have not seemed to care on a large scale. Again just a thought. Smiles, MH

Last edited by Mad Honk; 04-30-20 at 07:52 PM.
Mad Honk is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 07:00 PM
  #10  
TakingMyTime
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Los Alamitos, Calif.
Posts: 1,883

Bikes: Trek 7.4 FX, 5200 & 7700

Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 612 Post(s)
Liked 329 Times in 217 Posts
As I gaze into my crystal ball... I do think we will eventually get back to the life we had pre-virus. Sure, there will be some changes but I don't think as many as people are expecting. What I do fear, in our thirst for instantaneous updates across all media, you'll find certain restaurants, hotels and theaters being "tagged" as a point of infection and then ostracized to the point of collapse. All one person needs to do is say they caught a cold either here or there and it will spread like wildfire.
TakingMyTime is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 07:06 PM
  #11  
3alarmer
Friendship is Magic
 
3alarmer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: The Big Tomato
Posts: 18,790

Bikes: old ones

Mentioned: 258 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 18066 Post(s)
Liked 1,694 Times in 1,240 Posts
.
...if you look at the history during and following the 1917-1918 worldwide flu pandemic, once the dead are buried, the living will try to somehow go back to work and live through more interesting times. Generally speaking, it probably won't be talked about much, like all things dreadful. But it's gonna take at least a couiple of years in the short run to play out. And in the meantime, there's the prospect of a worldwide depression to distract us.
3alarmer is offline  
Likes For 3alarmer:
Old 04-30-20, 07:09 PM
  #12  
3alarmer
Friendship is Magic
 
3alarmer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: The Big Tomato
Posts: 18,790

Bikes: old ones

Mentioned: 258 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 18066 Post(s)
Liked 1,694 Times in 1,240 Posts
.
^^^^Mr. Sunshine^^^
3alarmer is offline  
Old 04-30-20, 07:41 PM
  #13  
Wileyrat
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Tucson Az
Posts: 1,551

Bikes: 2015 Ridley Fenix, 1983 Team Fuji, 2019 Marin Nail Trail 6, and a few dust collectors

Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 300 Post(s)
Liked 124 Times in 80 Posts
I suspect once the second qtr earnings statements are released, this artificially propped up market is going to have a major correction.
Wileyrat is offline  
Old 05-01-20, 04:05 PM
  #14  
berner
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Bristol, R. I.
Posts: 4,179

Bikes: Specialized Secteur, old Peugeot

Mentioned: 18 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 591 Post(s)
Liked 364 Times in 231 Posts
It is sad that much of the advice people are hearing is from people who don't know what they are talking about, namely politicians. Not their experience or training leads to an understanding of technical issues. I came across some information today from people who study pandemics. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/healt...ars/index.html
berner is offline  
Old 05-01-20, 06:36 PM
  #15  
Trevtassie
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Down Under
Posts: 1,604

Bikes: A steel framed 26" off road tourer from a manufacturer who thinks they are cool. Giant Anthem. Trek 720 Multiroad pub bike. 10 kids bikes all under 20". Assorted waifs and unfinished projects.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 529 Post(s)
Liked 318 Times in 164 Posts
Originally Posted by berner View Post
It is sad that much of the advice people are hearing is from people who don't know what they are talking about, namely politicians. Not their experience or training leads to an understanding of technical issues. I came across some information today from people who study pandemics. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/healt...ars/index.html
Your link is a little whack, here is a working version https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/30/h...two-more-years
Trevtassie is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 05:48 AM
  #16  
berner
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Bristol, R. I.
Posts: 4,179

Bikes: Specialized Secteur, old Peugeot

Mentioned: 18 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 591 Post(s)
Liked 364 Times in 231 Posts
Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
Your link is a little whack, here is a working version https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/30/h...two-more-years
Thanks for the correction. Don't know what happened to my link. The trouble with computers is you can't trust
'em.
berner is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 05:42 PM
  #17  
skookum
cyclotourist
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: calgary, canada
Posts: 1,166
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 314 Post(s)
Liked 115 Times in 70 Posts
I didn't know where to put this , an American academic who lives in South Korea, thoughts on re-opening the economy.

But South Korea’s corona ‘re-opening’ is still quite limited. The South Korean government, for example, does not even use such language, as that suggests a far greater return to pre-corona times than it is permitting. There were also warnings almost immediately from South Korean health officials that any re-opening would permit a resurgence of the virus. The Korean CDC is talking about a lock-down of varying intensity for a year – with re-clamp-downs possible if clusters pop up - until a vaccine is found.
But there is another issue too – cultural memory. South Koreans have been through these sorts of lockdowns before – for SARS and MERS. There is a reservoir of collective patience that does not exist in the West which has not seen something like this since the Spanish Flu of 1918. Trump is not just channeling his own desire to ‘re-open’ but that of a large chunk of the American population in disbelief that the world changed so rapidly.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/ko...s-looks-146806
skookum is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 05:49 PM
  #18  
Trevtassie
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Down Under
Posts: 1,604

Bikes: A steel framed 26" off road tourer from a manufacturer who thinks they are cool. Giant Anthem. Trek 720 Multiroad pub bike. 10 kids bikes all under 20". Assorted waifs and unfinished projects.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 529 Post(s)
Liked 318 Times in 164 Posts
It's going to be an interesting epidemiological experiment I think..
Trevtassie is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 06:04 PM
  #19  
katsup
Senior Member
 
katsup's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Southern California
Posts: 1,242

Bikes: Soma Fog Cutter & Vintage Mountain Bikes

Mentioned: 15 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 415 Post(s)
Liked 234 Times in 137 Posts
I see about 1/4" of the people with masks wearing them around their chin, sometimes covering their mouth, but always with their nose exposed. I know that it is more difficult to breathe in a mask, but it isn't doing much good when it is not worn properly. Some of these people are handling food at restaurants, so I don't think masks will slow down the spread much. When I go into public places, I wear a bandanna correctly.

I also think the virus will linger longer than the government says. I wonder if it will be a seasonal thing like the flu. People don't seem to care and I see a lot of people in groups on closed hiking trails (I entered from an open trail). Someone I spoke to today, didn't seem to care and said that everyone was hiking it anyway and that the "people have spoken".
katsup is offline  
Likes For katsup:
Old 05-02-20, 06:35 PM
  #20  
bobwysiwyg
Senior Member
 
bobwysiwyg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: 961' 42.28° N, 83.78° W (A2)
Posts: 2,317

Bikes: Mongoose Selous, Trek DS

Mentioned: 8 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 928 Post(s)
Liked 299 Times in 177 Posts
Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
It's going to be an interesting epidemiological experiment I think..
And once all the data is collected and analyzed to death, many research papers and books I'm sure.
bobwysiwyg is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 06:55 PM
  #21  
Trevtassie
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Down Under
Posts: 1,604

Bikes: A steel framed 26" off road tourer from a manufacturer who thinks they are cool. Giant Anthem. Trek 720 Multiroad pub bike. 10 kids bikes all under 20". Assorted waifs and unfinished projects.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 529 Post(s)
Liked 318 Times in 164 Posts
Originally Posted by katsup View Post
I see about 1/4" of the people with masks wearing them around their chin, sometimes covering their mouth, but always with their nose exposed. I know that it is more difficult to breathe in a mask, but it isn't doing much good when it is not worn properly. Some of these people are handling food at restaurants, so I don't think masks will slow down the spread much. When I go into public places, I wear a bandanna correctly.

I also think the virus will linger longer than the government says. I wonder if it will be a seasonal thing like the flu. People don't seem to care and I see a lot of people in groups on closed hiking trails (I entered from an open trail). Someone I spoke to today, didn't seem to care and said that everyone was hiking it anyway and that the "people have spoken".
The mask thing is pretty well why our government said "no masks" for the general public, because all they do is give a false sense of security and people fiddle with them too much. At the time I disagreed, but it turns out they made a good call.
And the hardest thing I think is that even badly done social distancing has a big effect on spread rates, so people do get complacent, since things aren't bad social distancing obviously is not worth it.
Trevtassie is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 07:16 PM
  #22  
downtube42
Senior Member
 
downtube42's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 2,240

Bikes: Soma Fog Cutter, Volae Team, '74ish Windsor Carrera Sport, Priority Eight, Nimbus MUni, Trek Roscoe 6

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 209 Post(s)
Liked 303 Times in 163 Posts
There's what the government will do, what people will do, and how business will react to both.

IMHO, in the US government will largely bow to pressure to return things to the old status quo, despite the cost in human lives. Spikes will cause reactions, but testing and counting will continue to be politicized. Thus far it's been mostly politicians and their media spinning the story; industry is slower but far more powerful in its ability to control the story. It will take time, but money rules America; more specifically, existing cash flows rule America.

The desire to avoid infection presents global business opportunities. Flyers will pay for protection more than for legroom. Diners will pay for protection more than for linen and fine dining. The same at health clubs, hotels, groceries, sporting events, tourist destinations, and everywhere else people want to spend their money. Likewise there will be an increased demand for jobs that provide safety. Six months ago, work-from-home engineering jobs were a small minority, and we all joked about 30 or 40-something engineers working in their pajamas in the mom's basement. Now demand for those jobs is skyrocketing. People of less means still want to be safe, both in their work life and leisure/recreation.

Some businesses will figure out formulas for success, others will fail. WFH is very soon going to be a major job perk. The sheer number of people at the middle and lower ends of the socioeconomic spectrum create a huge volume of demand at that level, as well. For every $1,500 guitar sold, Wal-Mart sells a bazillion $99.99 guitars - yes they are crap, but they add up to a huge profit. What's the equivalent of $99.99 guitar in COVID-19 safety? I don't know, but somebody will figure it out and sell it to the masses.

So much talk about when governments are going to open things up, with little consideration for the other forces at play.
downtube42 is offline  
Old 05-02-20, 09:51 PM
  #23  
SHBR
C*pt*i* Obvious
 
SHBR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 1,330
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 593 Post(s)
Liked 48 Times in 39 Posts
Government usually has a monopoly on force.

Good luck playing with them.
SHBR is offline  
Old 05-03-20, 02:43 PM
  #24  
downtube42
Senior Member
 
downtube42's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 2,240

Bikes: Soma Fog Cutter, Volae Team, '74ish Windsor Carrera Sport, Priority Eight, Nimbus MUni, Trek Roscoe 6

Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 209 Post(s)
Liked 303 Times in 163 Posts
Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
Government usually has a monopoly on force.

Good luck playing with them.
The business of America is business, said Woodrow Wilson. That is as true today as ever. Industry is far more influential than many seem to believe.

No government agents are going to drag me at gunpoint to attend bars or restaurants. When they decide to "open up", I and others like me will go out when we're good and ready, and we'll choose businesses who best meet out needs.

We will however, need self control to overcome the barrage of advertising that will feed our most base instincts. Americans are inundated with advertising, to the tune of $150 billion per year, the influence of which is clearly underestimated. Industry doesn't speed that money for fun, they spend it because it works.

No government agents are going to force me to stay with my current employer. They are however trying to eliminate coverage for preexisting conditions to keep us hostage - at the behest of industry lobbyists. Industry spent 3.5 billion annually on lobbyists, again because it's effective.

Those are two interesting numbers, though, aren't they? 40x spending on advertising than on lobbying. That tells me that influencing consumers has a much higher roi than influencing politicians. Consumers do indeed have tremendous power.
downtube42 is offline  
Old 05-03-20, 07:44 PM
  #25  
Trevtassie
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Down Under
Posts: 1,604

Bikes: A steel framed 26" off road tourer from a manufacturer who thinks they are cool. Giant Anthem. Trek 720 Multiroad pub bike. 10 kids bikes all under 20". Assorted waifs and unfinished projects.

Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 529 Post(s)
Liked 318 Times in 164 Posts
Originally Posted by downtube42 View Post
The business of America is business, said Woodrow Wilson. That is as true today as ever. Industry is far more influential than many seem to believe.

No government agents are going to drag me at gunpoint to attend bars or restaurants. When they decide to "open up", I and others like me will go out when we're good and ready, and we'll choose businesses who best meet out needs.

We will however, need self control to overcome the barrage of advertising that will feed our most base instincts. Americans are inundated with advertising, to the tune of $150 billion per year, the influence of which is clearly underestimated. Industry doesn't speed that money for fun, they spend it because it works.

No government agents are going to force me to stay with my current employer. They are however trying to eliminate coverage for preexisting conditions to keep us hostage - at the behest of industry lobbyists. Industry spent 3.5 billion annually on lobbyists, again because it's effective.

Those are two interesting numbers, though, aren't they? 40x spending on advertising than on lobbying. That tells me that influencing consumers has a much higher roi than influencing politicians. Consumers do indeed have tremendous power.
It's an interesting argument you have there, but it forgets that although advertising is 40 x lobbying, that 1/40 is given to a lot less people.
As for not having to go back to work, that depends how well off you are. If you happen to work in meatpacking, your choices will soon be go back to work or starve. The Defence Production Act will force meat packers to open. Governors will remove unemployment insurance for those who aren't going to work because of a fear of Covid-19 and liability is being removed for employers. Catch Covid-19 at work because of sub-standard working conditions and you get nothing, stay at home because of sub-standard conditions and you get nothing...
Trevtassie is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.