merlinextraligh

It is not at all that simple. First, Armstrong had the advantage of the best doping program ever assembled. PED's cost money. A sophisticated PEDS program that maximizes the advantage and minimizes the chance of detection costs lots of money. Very few other riders had access to PEDS on anything approaching that level of sophistication.
One problem Tyler Hamilton and Floyd Landis had leaving Postal is that they lost access to Postal's doping program, which eventually lead to their positive tests.

Second, PEDS, specifically EPO, negate the advantage of genetically gifted athletes. You can only compete with a hematocrit at 50 or below. A rider with a naturally high hematocrit (i.e. Hincapie) benefits less from EPO than a rider with a naturally low hematocrit.

Third, PEDS reduce the competition to only those riders that are willing and able to take the health, legal, and moral risks of using drugs illegally. A whole cadre of riders who chose not to cheat never got the opportunity to see if they could be competitive.

So it's not at all likely the outcomes would have been the same if no one doped.

merlinextraligh

Perception?

Ask Emma O'Reilly, Betsy Andreu, Frankie Andreu, Greg Lemond, Tyler Hamilton, David Walsh, Mike Anderson, Filippo Simeoni etc. etc.

Purposefully destroying people's careers makes your status as a jerk reality, not just perception.

ThermionicScott 

Sure, but they don't get as much press.

Non-Doping Cyclists Finish Tour De France - The Onion - America's Finest News Source

Zinger

Those Colombians that he passed, as if they were standing still, on that Sestriere climb in 1999 must not have been cheating.....with the right stuff.


"When I saw riders with fat asses climbing cols like airplanes understood what was happening."................Luis Herrera

Zurichman2

Yeah I own 4 Lemond bikes and would own more if they still made them. Lance had that much power that he forced Trek to drop the Lemond brand. Lance never was caught because he had some medical person in his corner that knew how to beat the tests. He also forced everybody on his team to take drugs. Betsy Andreu came out saying that Lance forced her husband to take drugs when he didn't want to. From what I heard/read the entire peleton pulled up beside Frankie and spit on him that is just wrong.

Zman

Zinger

Nevertheless that's going to leave question marks for a lot of the fans who were expecting lower ETs on the climbs now. It's going to take some explaining.

CliffordK

Ok, apparently Lance Armstrong does still hold the record for the fastest TDF.

One of the problems with drugs like steroids is that the effects may far outlast any typical washout period. Perhaps EPO might aid with training, even if not used during competition. The "passports" are supposed to help with detecting those, but are they good enough?

There is a slow improvement of bicycles. Perhaps only subtle changes, but the new frames are supposed to be stiffer where stiffness helps, and more compliant where a little flex is nice. Better tires. Better wheels and rims. Better spokes. Better understanding of rolling resistance and wind resistance. Aerodynamics. Absolute minimum legal weight for bikes.

The rider's only job is riding, with the best coaches, best nutrition. And best teamwork.

I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect TDF riders/bikes to be 5%-10% better than those a decade ago, so riders never having used PEDS may well be able to compete with those that have used them in the past.

work4bike

I've come to the conclusion that we "fans" of cycling (and of other sports) don't really understand this doping thing, i.e. the real extent of it. I really believe many of them dope in some way and that there are certain "secrets" that have not made it into the light of day.

I do think there are many that don't want to dope, but are basically forced into doing that, just like the entire USPS team. LA may have had the best doping program, but this was already basically a requirement (doping) if one wanted to compete in professional cycling in Europe. Doping Part of Professional Cycling?s Culture | The Sport Digest

I would never defend LA, because how he sought to destroy people around him disgusts me; however, this guy was a very talented athlete. There are many examples of one athlete passing others as if they're standing still. There are a lot of reasons this happens, you can't automatically go to the doping excuse, but I'm not saying it wasn't at least a factor.

Just look back in his early days and you can see that most of his performance comes from natural ability:

Zinger

When Mo Siegal started the Red Zinger Classics they couldn't afford the drug testing but they pretended they did and took the urine samples from the winners and place finishers. Then they just threw them away after the race until Coors took the race over. The first legitimate drug tests weren't done until 1981.

The only person disqualified up until then was Australia's Phil Anderson for not showing up to give his sample after having won a criterium stage. He said he was invited up to a ladies room after the race and missed his appointment.

Leinster

There's also the fact of greater depth in the field. LA rode his first Tour in 1993. 3 years before that, in 1990, the first riders from behind the iron curtain showed up on the start line. Before 7-Eleven in 1986, Americans would have been a rare sight. Essentially, before then, the peloton was, with a few rare exceptions, drawn from less than a dozen western European countries. Now there are Eritreans and Japanese and Russians and Colombians and riders drawn from every continent on the globe. I think that's obviously going to lead to increased competition.

Gallo

They say that Carlos Sastre was clean his whole career Very difficult to confirm one way or another.

Maelochs

This to me is the worst part. Armstrong was arguably the best ride in a long time ... he might well have beaten everybody else if they were all clean.

Or ... he might have had the best doping program, the most tuned program which got him just that little extra performance with that little smaller physical cost, leaving him more ready to go the next day.

We were robbed of seeing what those guys really could have done.

Of course a lot of ignorant people (me) enjoyed what they did because we didn't know ... while a lot of people knew and said but no one wanted to listen.

Would the racing have been any less exciting if it wasn't really a competition between pharmacists?

On the other hand ... how nice would it have been to not have to know all our heroes were massive cheats?

Even more ... UCI Had to be in on it. No way I can imagine that Lance would Never have gotten caught unless UCI didn't want to catch him ... an American hero, a chance to expand cycling across the Atlantic the way earlier American riders couldn't offer. Armstrong was the right face at the right time ...

Then the question becomes ... how does Anyone get caught? Does UCI decide who to bust and who to pass? Is Any cycling race not fixed?

It is almost difficult to really commit to the sport any more because so many times I have gotten enthusiastic and then the positive tests roll in.

rando_couche

Seems like whenever there's a team as dominant as Sky or Postal (regardless of the sport - even high school football for crying out loud!) it comes out that they've been cheating one way or another. Doesn't stop me watching and enjoying pro cycling, but...


SP
OC, OR

Zurichman2

IMHO somebody gets caught as they come out with a new test system that nobody has seen before. There is no doubt in my mind that Lance beat the tests as he had somebody really smart on his side in the medical field or Lab Testing field that knew how to beat the test. The rumor I heard that Floyd Landis got caught as he had a steroid patch on his groin area and feel asleep with it on and left it on there too long. The other thing I use to think the USA U19 or whatever the Junior rider age rider group is was white as snow. Then on a 1998 Colorado week tour I had a woman tell me her son was on the team and they tried to get him to take drugs and he refused. They took his coach away from him and made him ride in events/distances he didn't normally ride in. He keep winning so they left him alone and gave him his coach back. So much for the sport being pure.

Zman

hobbs1951

What should be factored in viz the speed increase is the distance decrease ?

John.