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Impact of Pandemic on Racing

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Impact of Pandemic on Racing

Old 03-18-20, 09:52 AM
  #51  
Clyde1820
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
Funny we were posting similar at the same time. Statista wants $59/month from me, so I have to search a lot. I have been keeping my own spreadsheet and seeing the trends.

I really want to see the influenza trends which I expect will be way down from the 20K so deaths in the USA due to the behavior changes forced on the population. I expect auto accidents to go down too.
Best data we've got so far is from the CDC, on estimated influenza infections, hospitalizations and deaths from the 2018-2019 flu season. Basically: 35M infections; 16.5M health care provider visits; 490K hospitalizations; and 34K deaths. Still estimates, aka the estimated burden of influenza for the season.

No telling what the Oct-May 2019/2020 season's results might be, when all's tallied. I suspect you're correct, that the numbers are likely to be down somewhat, though technically since the flu season doesn't begin, again, until October, it's hard to predict whether close-contacts starting in October will be fewer. Likely, folks who didn't have a "keep your distance" protocol previously will still have a much-stricter regimen come October. We'll see.

As for comparing stats on things: indeed, it'd be nice if all nations and states reported per-capita rates along with the raw numbers. Else, people are forced to figure it out prior to appreciating the meaningfulness of a given number. As with traffic fatalities, for example, knowing how many is all well and good, but knowing the fatality per-capita rate is vital if one is to appreciate the relative risk of that activity. Until the COVID-19 stuff gets put into such terms, it's not going to be easy to see comparative impacts across states or nations.

As well, just knowing the number of hospitals, hospitalizations, recoveries and deaths doesn't say anything about a given nation's effectiveness in the area: of doctors and nurses, of triage, of procedural effectiveness, of prior experience, of how full or stressed the pipeline is for supplies and treatments (ie, lack of antivirals, lack of respiratory assists [machines, O2 delivery masks], blood products, or even lack of TP/gauze). The numbers might be high, but if a given nation's got stellar staff, procedures and inventories ...

Interesting problem. A painful readjustment of appreciation for the risks and "cures," at all levels. Hopefully good learning comes from it, in all societies.
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Old 03-18-20, 10:37 AM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
The whole per capita part is being ignored in most the social postings I read.
I don't have the daily number for Italy, but what I have seen on Facebook or both countries going from 1000-6000 in the same period of time is not the same rate, just like and increase of 10,11,12,13 is not the same rate as 50,51,52,53.
These posts and stats I've seen ignore the base - in this case the population. As much as 40% of the US deaths were due to external sources - boats, an identified individual bringing it in.

I also was hearing that we may all be carriers, we don't know. A pile of tests Sunday @ Hoag Hospital of folks feeling sick, coughing, runny noses - they couldn't find a carrier. The testing thing is difficult. It is hard to test 350 million people to find those 6,500 that have it. I'm sure it is more than 6,500, but I don't but this "we may all be carriers" thing.

To me the rate that matters is deaths per capita, and then the geographic location. The rate of deaths is too new a stat.

In the USA as of March 18 10:34 EDT there are 116 fatal cases. The WA elderly from one rest home and several from a cruise ship contribute a significant amount to that.
The first death from a USA caught infection was Feb 29 - 18 days ago. A rate of deaths/USA population/days since 1st death ~ nothing.

The rate of deaths in the states I live in goes between 1/day to 0 per day (CA has 11, CO 2). The rate based on population 11/39,000,000/14days = .00000002 deaths per capita per day in CA. and less in CO.

Not that any deaths are OK, and not that this could not grow and maybe what we have done will reduce contagion, but I'm far from panic as to the virus itself. It could be bad, it could get bad. It is not bad now.
That stock market, and being restricted are much bigger issues.

Right now the states I live in - CA and CO,
Check out this website for stats per country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the table view also reports cases / capita.
Check out this blogpost for some real number crunching: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

then realize that apparently the Wuhan lockdown was started when only a few hundred cases were reported. They managed to end it at 80k cases. and the US is not even close to the level of measured the chinese took to stop the spread.
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Old 03-18-20, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by gerundium View Post
Check out this website for stats per country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the table view also reports cases / capita.
Check out this blogpost for some real number crunching: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

then realize that apparently the Wuhan lockdown was started when only a few hundred cases were reported. They managed to end it at 80k cases. and the US is not even close to the level of measured the chinese took to stop the spread.
Good links.
They show Cases/1M pop - USA 23, yesterday 19. USA adding cases at a rate of 4/day/1M people (based on one day) while Italy 521->591 or 70/day/1M
So Italy is adding cases 17X the rate of the USA.
Again - cases, not deaths.

Part of the reason may be as simple as population density.

Wuhan - population density of 3,200/sq mile
Italy - population density 520/sq mi
USA (since we are comparing USA) 93/sq mile

Certain USA cities are as high as 27,000/sq mile, but it is the USA that is being compared to Wuhan, or to Italy.
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Old 03-18-20, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by gerundium View Post
Check out this blogpost for some real number crunching: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
We are about 1/3 the predicted cases in the 9 days since that number crunching data was used using their 40% per day increase.

Maybe thanks to the actions.
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Old 03-18-20, 05:17 PM
  #55  
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  •  

  • Gary K.
  • Krieger These virus are much different,
    What you need to understand.
    Are you Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

    It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

    Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

    Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

    Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

    H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

    Fast forward.

    Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

    This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

    And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

    That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

    We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
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Old 03-19-20, 08:10 PM
  #56  
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https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/calif...014232940.html

Can we still go on rides? It still says you can walk around outside at least...
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Old 03-19-20, 09:17 PM
  #57  
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Originally Posted by TMonk View Post
https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/calif...014232940.html

Can we still go on rides? It still says you can walk around outside at least...
Getting serious. My road club is considering cancelling all rides. One problem is all of our rest stops are closed. We could carry food but on a long ride we need water and bathrooms. Plus, people might weird out on us if we seem to be out having a good time. I'm sure a lot of riders won't come out, anyway.

The other club I ride with sometimes cancelled all their rides, then decided to have them but small groups only. Today's news might change that back.

I guess we could go off road in small groups.
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Old 03-19-20, 09:18 PM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by TMonk View Post
https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/calif...014232940.html

Can we still go on rides? It still says you can walk around outside at least...
Yes, just not in groups. At least assuming it's the same as the Bay Area's "shelter in place" order that we've been under since Monday.

Given that walking outside is allowed, I'd think cycling is similar if you're alone.
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Old 03-19-20, 09:22 PM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by mattm View Post
Yes, just not in groups. At least assuming it's the same as the Bay Area's "shelter in place" order that we've been under since Monday.

Given that walking outside is allowed, I'd think cycling is similar if you're alone.
The governor said there was a difference between the Bay Area order and the rest of the state but I'm not clear on the nuances. I'll read up on it some more.
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Old 03-20-20, 04:39 AM
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Originally Posted by gerundium View Post
Check out this website for stats per country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the table view also reports cases / capita.
Check out this blogpost for some real number crunching: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

then realize that apparently the Wuhan lockdown was started when only a few hundred cases were reported. They managed to end it at 80k cases. and the US is not even close to the level of measured the chinese took to stop the spread.
followup article which again is pretty good: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56
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Old 03-20-20, 09:00 AM
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Originally Posted by cmh View Post
I received a notice late yesterday from my employer that a person I was in meetings with between Mar 9 and 11 has come down with respiratory symptoms. The person has not yet been tested but is in contact with their doctor and will follow their advice. I have been working from home since 3/12 by my own choice, and I'm now on mandatory work from home until 3/25 (14 days from 3/11).
Are you ok?
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Old 03-20-20, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
We are about 1/3 the predicted cases in the 9 days since that number crunching data was used using their 40% per day increase.

Maybe thanks to the actions.
Or maybe underreported by a lack of testing. I know several cases locally that exhibited symptoms but were told they would not be tested.
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Old 03-20-20, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by kensuf View Post
Or maybe underreported by a lack of testing. I know several cases locally that exhibited symptoms but were told they would not be tested.
For sure at the start, but deaths are not so under-reported. The rate of deaths per day is now ~30. Annual rate just over half of the influenza rate.
In OC (SoCal) cases are going down. Hoag has beds way down. I think they are 20%-30% full and maternity stuff has some activity, but all else nothing. the 2-3 cases they have were contracted elsewhere. They are sending staff home.


Gov Executive Order N-33-20 says "WHEREAS in a short period of time, COVID-19 has rapidly spread throughout California,..."

CA now has 971 cases in some 3 weeks with 19 deaths. This is not an exponential curve. That may very well be due to our behavior, which is good, but the numbers are not exponential.

USA deaths (not skewed by testing) since March 17 108,150.187,217
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Old 03-20-20, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
For sure at the start, but deaths are not so under-reported. The rate of deaths per day is now ~30. Annual rate just over half of the influenza rate.
In OC (SoCal) cases are going down. Hoag has beds way down. I think they are 20%-30% full and maternity stuff has some activity, but all else nothing. the 2-3 cases they have were contracted elsewhere. They are sending staff home.


Gov Executive Order N-33-20 says "WHEREAS in a short period of time, COVID-19 has rapidly spread throughout California,..."

CA now has 971 cases in some 3 weeks with 19 deaths. This is not an exponential curve. That may very well be due to our behavior, which is good, but the numbers are not exponential.

USA deaths (not skewed by testing) since March 17 108,150.187,217
You don't appear to understand what 'exponential' growth is. California, along with the rest of the world, is experiencing exponential growth. Attempts are being made with measures like lockdown to lower the growth rate. If you look at the chart below it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that with no action California will, in a relatively short time, reach similar case levels as those in Europe. Italy was late in enforcing lockdown measures, California is hoping to avoid the problems Italy had.

The graph below has the number of cased plotted on a logarithmic axis where an exponential relation will show as a straight line with the slope directly related to the growth rate.

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Old 03-20-20, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
You don't appear to understand what 'exponential' growth is. California, along with the rest of the world, is experiencing exponential growth. Attempts are being made with measures like lockdown to lower the growth rate. If you look at the chart below it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that with no action California will, in a relatively short time, reach similar case levels as those in Europe. Italy was late in enforcing lockdown measures, California is hoping to avoid the problems Italy had.

The graph below has the number of cased plotted on a logarithmic axis where an exponential relation will show as a straight line with the slope directly related to the growth rate.
That graph is on cases, skewed as noted by others on increased testing. Also totally ignoring the populations. 10^4 cases does not mean so much until you also divide by the population. And 10K cases does not have real meaning until you know the cost of that in deaths or care.

Putting Italy cases and USA cases on the same graph is misleading.
The rates are based on those numbers divided by 60,000,000 population denominator for Italy, and the 330,000,000 for the USA.

As I acknowledged, actions may be a big reason why our rates are lower. The thing I don't like so much about the case graphs is they don't tell us so much. They may help predict hospital loads, but as hospitals will do mostly ICU - quarantine, in many cases the sick should just stay home. The other thing is the case:death ratio is very different based on age / location. Germany 18,756 cases, 53 deaths .3%. So besides overlaying vastly different populations with cases, we don't have a good handle on what those cases mean.

Last edited by Doge; 04-11-20 at 08:26 PM.
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Old 03-20-20, 11:39 AM
  #66  
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The absolute number of people with it matters because that can be utilized to determine the upper and lower bounds of cases in N number of days, which determines future case load for healthcare professionals, and is a more easily understandable number for John Q public than is infection rate per capita. Those numbers are available on a state by state basis as well, which perhaps provides data that is more to your liking. I'm also sure you understand that a 50% infection rate in Liechtenstein is far different than a 50% infection rate in the US.

We are nearing 8000 confirmed cases here in NY and the number is growing rapidly with testing. Something like 2.5k new positives came in the last 24 hours. In Albany they are likely going to be limiting testing again due to lack of supplies. There are certainly many more individuals floating around with it that have simply not been tested.

Most of us in this forum are in fine health and will be okay. I am taking this as seriously as possible for the good of those that would not be fine were I to pass it on to them.

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Old 03-20-20, 11:48 AM
  #67  
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Went on my first "road" ride yesterday since the crash. Still waiting on new tubes/tape for the HED's on the roadie. I bought strips too narrow and they didn't work.

So, rode the cross bike around the neighborhood. Hilly. Decent average and nominal power. Not what I expected given the effort but always forget with those curvy hilly routes even if pedaling and shifting your best you're losing time at power.

With run/bike combo this week on track for 400 TSS.

I caught a "Corona Wedding" while riding. Literally were doing their first kiss as I rode by. Maybe 15 people in a front yard.

Geeez man. Crazy times. Seeing the freaking notices online of layoffs of service workers and other things with nothing to do outside an office.

Also, not to pick on folks in the risk age group for this virus........but to an extent it really pisses me off to see folks in that age group not taking the precautions despite a TON of people losing their jobs for their benefit.

While riding to/from work I notice people still gathering around, with advanced age folks in the groups........with snot nosed kids in the groups too.

I haven't done anything in a group since. Work has us 6' or more and keeping a log and even working at home right until our equipment is readied to be used. Then, I'm in a facility where I often have dozens of yards to the nearest person.

It's maddening to see the kiddos in the 10 to 20's age range plowing around neighborhoods in packs still. Parents don't care?

I dunno man, I feel like outside of just the at-work piece we're doing our part. We don't go out in town, only takeout, no meeting people, no closer than 6 feet.

I just hope the daily issues of Italy don't come here because we were too proud or stubborn.
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Old 03-20-20, 01:18 PM
  #68  
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Originally Posted by furiousferret View Post
The other 2 guys in my office (I share a room with 2 others) are sick, one is getting tested today, so we're all waiting for the results. My boss called me into the office and I was sent home. So I guess I'm on lockdown until he gets his results.

FYI, 97.5 temp, 46 resting heart rate this morning. Rode at or over tempo for 90 minutes on Saturday. I feel great but I'm probably going to stick to z2 workouts until we know what's going on.
how are you feeling today?
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Old 03-20-20, 01:22 PM
  #69  
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
That graph on on cases, skewed as noted by others on increased testing. Also totally ignoring the populations. 10^4 cases does not mean so much until you also divide by the population. And 10K cases does not have real meaning until you know the cost of that in deaths or care.

Putting Italy cases and USA cases on the same graph is misleading.
The rates are based on those numbers divided by 60,000,000 population denominator for Italy, and the 330,000,000 for the USA.

As I acknowledged, actions may be a big reason why our rates are lower. The thing I don't like so much about the case graphs is they don't tell us so much. They may help predict hospital loads, but as hospitals will do mostly ICU - quarantine, in many cases the sick should just stay home. The other thing is the case:death ratio is very different based on age / location. Germany 18,756 cases, 53 deaths .3%. So besides overlaying vastly different populations with cases, we don't have a good handle on what those cases mean.
The important take away from the graphs is not the absolute numbers but the slopes of the line which represent the growth rates. California is currently about 3 wks behind Italy. If they don't react aggressively the cases in California will be the same as Italy 3 wks from now. Fortunately, your government recognizes this and is taking action now before things get out of hand.
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Old 03-20-20, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by echappist View Post
how are you feeling today?
Co worker is better. We've been coughing but I think that's more to do with being locked in a stuffy house since its been raining all week.

My wife has been losing it mentally. Our dining room is full of food and she keeps sending me out for more. I told her we had enough and she almost broke out in tears, so I got more. For me the whole point was to have a stockpile so we didn't have to leave. She seems to think there's not going to be any more food in a few days.
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Old 03-20-20, 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
The important take away from the graphs is not the absolute numbers but the slopes of the line which represent the growth rates. California is currently about 3 wks behind Italy. If they don't react aggressively the cases in California will be the same as Italy 3 wks from now. Fortunately, your government recognizes this and is taking action now before things get out of hand.
Absolute numbers say nothing about rate to humans.

Saying there were 20K auto deaths means little. We want to know per the world, country, what state, what amount of time?
That graph only plots cases by country over time. It leave out population. Then...death rates are all over the place. If that graph showed risk of death, USA would be 1/5th the slope of Italy.
That is why I said it was misleading.

As you would expect rates are tracking a lot based on population density. Italy is about 5X the population density USA.
Areas in the USA of higher populations, and the whole eastern USA, have more cases and assumed, future death per capita, so the death rate is higher.

West Coast - we have SFO - 1095 cases, 21 deaths. Population 850K. They may become the rate of cases as Italy. As may LA.
CA as a whole, I doubt we will see much more than 1/5 the Italian rates.

My area (SoCal Orange County 1.8M population) now has lines at the grocery store.
So far - Yesterday. https://www.ochealthinfo.com/phs/abo...el_coronavirus
0 deaths (yet)
0 cases < 18
26 18-49
27 50+
26 of the cases are community contracted, 25 were contracted travel / elsewhere.
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Old 03-20-20, 03:07 PM
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big john
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Originally Posted by furiousferret View Post
Co worker is better. We've been coughing but I think that's more to do with being locked in a stuffy house since its been raining all week.

My wife has been losing it mentally. Our dining room is full of food and she keeps sending me out for more. I told her we had enough and she almost broke out in tears, so I got more. For me the whole point was to have a stockpile so we didn't have to leave. She seems to think there's not going to be any more food in a few days.
Do you have enough toilet paper for the food you have?
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Old 03-20-20, 03:42 PM
  #73  
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Originally Posted by Doge View Post
Absolute numbers say nothing about rate to humans.

Saying there were 20K auto deaths means little. We want to know per the world, country, what state, what amount of time?
That graph only plots cases by country over time. It leave out population. Then...death rates are all over the place. If that graph showed risk of death, USA would be 1/5th the slope of Italy.
That is why I said it was misleading.

As you would expect rates are tracking a lot based on population density. Italy is about 5X the population density USA.
Areas in the USA of higher populations, and the whole eastern USA, have more cases and assumed, future death per capita, so the death rate is higher.

West Coast - we have SFO - 1095 cases, 21 deaths. Population 850K. They may become the rate of cases as Italy. As may LA.
CA as a whole, I doubt we will see much more than 1/5 the Italian rates.

My area (SoCal Orange County 1.8M population) now has lines at the grocery store.
So far - Yesterday. https://www.ochealthinfo.com/phs/abo...el_coronavirus
0 deaths (yet)
0 cases < 18
26 18-49
27 50+
26 of the cases are community contracted, 25 were contracted travel / elsewhere.
You're getting bogged down in minutia. Once the virus gets hold in a region there isn't a lot of difference in the growth rates. The slope of all the lines regardless of whether it's a city or country is similar. Italy was above 20% per day and now, with fairly draconian measures, they are down to about 15% a day which still results in a doubling of cases every 5 days so not very good.
California is still above 20% day over day increase so it won't be long before your state will be at similar numbers per capita to Italy.

I don't really understand what you're arguing about. It sounds like in your mind this isn't a serious situation and doesn't require any special effort. You sound very much like your president last week. Wait a couple of weeks and I suspect you'll have a different view.
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Old 03-20-20, 05:00 PM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by big john View Post
Do you have enough toilet paper for the food you have?
We should be fine =]

Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
You're getting bogged down in minutia. Once the virus gets hold in a region there isn't a lot of difference in the growth rates. The slope of all the lines regardless of whether it's a city or country is similar. Italy was above 20% per day and now, with fairly draconian measures, they are down to about 15% a day which still results in a doubling of cases every 5 days so not very good.
California is still above 20% day over day increase so it won't be long before your state will be at similar numbers per capita to Italy.

I don't really understand what you're arguing about. It sounds like in your mind this isn't a serious situation and doesn't require any special effort. You sound very much like your president last week. Wait a couple of weeks and I suspect you'll have a different view.
Taking it lightly has always drawn a nerve with me, if you don't think its serious convincing others of the same is only putting them at risk. Going on social media and spouting that stuff is borderline criminal, imo. Slowly but surely the 'Hoaxers' are settling down. There's only 1 left on my Facebook feed and even his bs has toned down.
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Old 03-21-20, 10:11 AM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
You're getting bogged down in minutia. Once the virus gets hold in a region there isn't a lot of difference in the growth rates. The slope of all the lines regardless of whether it's a city or country is similar. Italy was above 20% per day and now, with fairly draconian measures, they are down to about 15% a day which still results in a doubling of cases every 5 days so not very good.
California is still above 20% day over day increase so it won't be long before your state will be at similar numbers per capita to Italy.

I don't really understand what you're arguing about. It sounds like in your mind this isn't a serious situation and doesn't require any special effort. You sound very much like your president last week. Wait a couple of weeks and I suspect you'll have a different view.
Well it is not as serious as many post, and Hoaxs are posted. There was one yesterday about a hospital in MI with teens and 20s on ventilators. I posted I thought it was a Hoax and got flamed for it. It turned out to be a hoax.
What do I want...Folks to
1 Look at deaths, not cases.
2 Look at data on CDC and WHO sites for your region. Population density matters.
3 If folks don't already know, consider the group they are in and fear accordingly.
4 Words like rates and graphs are used to distort. See CDC, WHO - but consider population, density. Death is the number we should be looking at. This has been going on long enough.
5 I want the excessive trips to the store to stop. As one poster said he's doing.
6 Edit Added - Hospitals will do little for folks not needing ventilators, which is a smaller %. Isolation in ICU is likely worse than just staying home.
7 Edit Add - A positive test will indicate you should be quarantined. In other words - behave as you are to behave now. Combine #6 and #7 - why test.
8 An while my posts have no hope of changing things, look at this on local population levels. Areas like mine with 0 deaths, declining hospital fill need a bit of a break from some of these Executive orders. SFO, LA, city hubs have understandable reasons they are the way they are. Rural, less dense areas should not need the same restrictions.


Cases are very poor numbers and we should ignore cases. Israel has ~800 cases, 1 death, Germany .3% deaths, other places 5%-10% deaths. Some folks say "we could all have it" - well then, nothing to be afraid of then as the death rate would be so low.

As to the rate of deaths for the USA (comparing to the USA so population cancels out) based on CDC reported numbers 3/17-18 42 died, 18-19, 37 died, 19-20 46 died, 20-21 (so far) 43 died. Cases are all over the place as testing continually changes.
So recent 42,37,46,43 - dos not make any kind of exponential graph to me.

If I plot the OC, where I live, and a larger population than San Francisco, we have grocery store lines, shelter in place and the numbers are 0,0,0,0,0. So, yes, I think the precautions are excessive for my location.

So I just want to argue with facts, not graphs and predictions. The ones posted near the top of this thread are already way off.

Last edited by Doge; 03-21-20 at 12:04 PM.
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