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Corona and Cavalier Behavior

Old 04-08-20, 01:37 PM
  #101  
Seattle Forrest
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
If we're focusing on the US, this post is off the mark. The coronavirus infects at a rate of approx. 2:1 which is why the numbers double in a week or so. The idea of social distancing is to reduce the spread to 1:1 since fewer people are available to infect. Once this happens in an area we'll be able to test, find those infected, and enforce real quarantine. Beyond that, there's herd immunity which operates similar to social distancing. Between the two, the coronavirus should blow itself out in a few months. Thus, things should stabilize in June after 80,000 to 100,000 deaths but that doesn't mean back to normal.
I wish this would be true, but it's unfortunately Pollyanna fiction.
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Old 04-08-20, 02:56 PM
  #102  
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There remain open questions of what it takes to get immunity and how long it lasts.

For example :Some who get it mildly don't seem to get lasting antibodies. Those who fight it the hardest (i.e. severe cases) and recover seem to have more lasting ones. There are also some reports of those who fought it hard and recovered, but don't have antibodies, but that does not necessarily mean no gained resistance. Mostly anecdotal at this point, but something to watch.

Seems there could be a range of a couple months to a couple years immunity. A potential vaccine may not be better.
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Old 04-08-20, 03:00 PM
  #103  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
I wish this would be true, but it's unfortunately Pollyanna fiction.
Instead of just saying others are wrong perhaps you could explain why so we'd have some idea what's right - which is best for all. I'm not saying you're incorrect, only that neither I nor anyone else can tell from your comment.
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Old 04-08-20, 05:51 PM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Aren't bank lobbies pretty much closed everywhere? I don't see how convenience stores could be considered safe in this situation, and probably should be closed.
I'm not sure about bank lobbies, haven't been to my bank since March.

If convenience stores were closed in my area some people would literally starve to death. Many low income areas have zero practicable access to grocery stores. The stopgaps are convenience stores or, if they're lucky, dollar stores. I know some impoverished older and disabled folks who subsist entirely on whatever they can find in convenience stores, dollar stores and vending machines. It's mostly sugar and junk carbs.

A consequence is an uptick in pedestrian deaths. Occasionally poor folks will attempt to venture out to real grocery stores. This usually involves navigating hostile terrain -- super highways and wide multi-lane boulevards meant for the convenience of commuters that cut through older traditional neighborhoods. They get mowed down like weeds. Barely a mention in the local news. The only way we learn of these deaths is through the impersonal police blotter on social media.
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Old 04-08-20, 08:51 PM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
I'm not sure about bank lobbies, haven't been to my bank since March.

If convenience stores were closed in my area some people would literally starve to death. Many low income areas have zero practicable access to grocery stores. The stopgaps are convenience stores or, if they're lucky, dollar stores. I know some impoverished older and disabled folks who subsist entirely on whatever they can find in convenience stores, dollar stores and vending machines. It's mostly sugar and junk carbs.

A consequence is an uptick in pedestrian deaths. Occasionally poor folks will attempt to venture out to real grocery stores. This usually involves navigating hostile terrain -- super highways and wide multi-lane boulevards meant for the convenience of commuters that cut through older traditional neighborhoods. They get mowed down like weeds. Barely a mention in the local news. The only way we learn of these deaths is through the impersonal police blotter on social media.


True in many places. Underlines why the rules need to vary from place to place.
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Old 04-08-20, 09:30 PM
  #106  
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One can't effectively apply rules with such granularity. It would almost need to vary store by store.
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Old 04-09-20, 12:41 AM
  #107  
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
Instead of just saying others are wrong perhaps you could explain why so we'd have some idea what's right - which is best for all. I'm not saying you're incorrect, only that neither I nor anyone else can tell from your comment.
Fair enough.

Testing to isolate only the sick would be wonderful. But it would require regular (every few days) testing everybody. We don't have enough tests for that, we've done about 3 million so far total (USA). There's just no way we can keep up. Worse, the tests have about a 20% false negative rate. Widespread antibody testing would let us "unquarantine" people who have immunity (many of them would have had no symptoms or only mild ones, never sick enough to test), that would help.

You're right that we'll eventually reach herd immunity, but that requires 60 or 70 % of the population to be infected, or eventually vaccinated. That means 231 million Americans will have to be infected, if we're to get there before we have a vaccine in 18+ months. It has to be a slow burn because we still can't overwhelm hospitals. Relaxing the restrictions means infection rate going back up.

We'll probably move closer to normal in a few months when the whole country has this under control. A lot of people are talking about a game of whack a mole where we open things for days or a week to get more people infected then close things back down to flatten each curve.

Also, the mutation rate is low, but moving through hundreds of millions of people, it will mutate. That could send us back to square one, like how you need a different flu vaccine every year. Or the mutations we get might be different in ways that don't matter to our immune systems. No way to know yet.

It will be a long time before we're really back to normal, any of us making plans should expect that.
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Old 04-09-20, 07:55 AM
  #108  
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
One can't effectively apply rules with such granularity. It would almost need to vary store by store.

I don't know. California has been doing lots of things county by county. Rules can be quite different in rural vs. urban areas for example.

Also, if there really is a problem with masked people holding up such stores, hours and security requirements could be adjusted. Virus protection is another matter, however. I think the stores' formats are inherently problematic--too close, too much handling of merchandise, self-serve beverage is ridiculously risky, etc.
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Old 04-09-20, 07:58 AM
  #109  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Fair enough.

Testing to isolate only the sick would be wonderful. But it would require regular (every few days) testing everybody. We don't have enough tests for that, we've done about 3 million so far total (USA). There's just no way we can keep up. Worse, the tests have about a 20% false negative rate. Widespread antibody testing would let us "unquarantine" people who have immunity (many of them would have had no symptoms or only mild ones, never sick enough to test), that would help.

You're right that we'll eventually reach herd immunity, but that requires 60 or 70 % of the population to be infected, or eventually vaccinated. That means 231 million Americans will have to be infected, if we're to get there before we have a vaccine in 18+ months. It has to be a slow burn because we still can't overwhelm hospitals. Relaxing the restrictions means infection rate going back up.

We'll probably move closer to normal in a few months when the whole country has this under control. A lot of people are talking about a game of whack a mole where we open things for days or a week to get more people infected then close things back down to flatten each curve.

Also, the mutation rate is low, but moving through hundreds of millions of people, it will mutate. That could send us back to square one, like how you need a different flu vaccine every year. Or the mutations we get might be different in ways that don't matter to our immune systems. No way to know yet.

It will be a long time before we're really back to normal, any of us making plans should expect that.
I think the quickest routes are stepping up testing drastically, and the systematic testing and approval of effective antivirals and other treatments. If we can get the morbidity/mortality rates down (whatever they are), the spread becomes much less of a threat.
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Old 04-09-20, 02:19 PM
  #110  
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And everybody has to remember that even if this virus never killed anybody, a lot of people are developing permenant lung damage.

This has been said before, but it bears repeating.
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Old 04-10-20, 06:54 PM
  #111  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
That's the rosy scenario, but it's not at all clear that we haven't already blown past that possibility with the delays in effective testing and implementing social distancing.

**************************************************************************************************** **************************

You're basically describing the Korean solution, BTW. What they're really doing is not allowing the virus to "blow itself out", but instead targeting the brush fires before they can spread into a major conflagration. At this point, it seems to be working, and I hope it continues to do so. I also hope we didn't act too late for this to work here, but that's still a very open question.
I find your post on the mark especially in light of a recent Ted Talk I bookmarked. The talk is by a woman who deals with health systems. The gist of her talk is that we can expect similar outbreaks to the current corona outbreak in the future. This is due to loss of wild places and more contact with the creatures that normally live far from humans. A solution she proposes a more coordinated response between nations. The big problem she sees is that poor nations have very limited resources of trained people and not just funding. For example, she talks about one African nation dealing with Ebola where of a total number of MDs of just over 100 doctors, 10% fell victim to Ebola. In this situation the worldwide capacity to deal with a pandemic is seriously compromised. I would be very interested in your take on the talk.
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Old 04-12-20, 08:19 AM
  #112  
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The general public don't give a damn in Shanghai anymore.

Spring weather today, EVERYONE was out, and personal space is now an after thought.

Most people still wear masks, except for the smokers.
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Old 04-15-20, 04:43 PM
  #113  
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We'll here we are on April 15, 2020 and I'm in the State of ILL, U.S.A.

868 people killed by China, and of the State population 12,671,821.

That's 0.0068 % of the people.

Last edited by BillyD; 04-16-20 at 11:54 AM. Reason: Abortion talk prohibited.
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Old 04-15-20, 05:40 PM
  #114  
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Originally Posted by crank_addict View Post
We'll here we are on April 15, 2020 and I'm in the State of ILL, U.S.A.

868 people killed by China, and of the State population 12,671,821.

That's 0.0068 % of the people.

Last edited by BillyD; 04-16-20 at 11:52 AM. Reason: Cleanup
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Old 04-15-20, 06:47 PM
  #115  
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Originally Posted by crank_addict View Post
We'll here we are on April 15, 2020 and I'm in the State of ILL, U.S.A.

868 people killed by China, and of the State population 12,671,821.

That's 0.0068 % of the people.

I'm guessing that if this continues and we take annual count, it will still be 'far less' than the State's tally from abortion mills.
I'm in your neighbor state to the east, and we have very strong Shelter in Place orders to keep transmission down. Our residents from China likely would take offense to the reference to "China Disease", but that is for another discussion.
My wife is a hospice worker and winds up in the very worst case places in the area for Covid-19 exposure and transmission. She has one co-worker infected, and is currently working only by phone. One site here in Indiana has had 21 deaths from the virus in the last week. Our hospital is the major hub for five counties and gets every case that is brought in. I am in the over 68, hypertensive, and immune compromised, group.
I really don't think I will have a chance at being part of the group that will need an abortion, but I will hold my right to have one should the need arise. Please refrain from bringing this to the discussion.
I doubt that the virus will be as dire here in the mid-west as in NYC, but I am taking no chances. Four weeks of Quarantine and holding... MH
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