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It's not a hoax

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It's not a hoax

Old 04-18-20, 07:34 AM
  #301  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iously-thought

My post from a couple of weeks ago seems to be coming true. What if the true infection rate in the US is 50x-85x the currently published rate? What would that mean in terms of truly understanding the pandemic? Expanded antibody testing is about to reveal truly what's happening here.
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Old 04-18-20, 08:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Hiro11 View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iously-thought

My post from a couple of weeks ago seems to be coming true. What if the true infection rate in the US is 50x-85x the currently published rate? What would that mean in terms of truly understanding the pandemic? Expanded antibody testing is about to reveal truly what's happening here.

Yup, that we don't really know the infection rate has been well-known from the beginning. Note that the article you linked makes very clear that even if this holds up, we can't jump to conclusions about the significance until we know whether there is immunity after infection and for how long.

All in all, it suggests that further study may yield very good news, but that we can't count on it yet.
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Old 04-18-20, 08:05 AM
  #303  
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Originally Posted by bobwysiwyg View Post
This is significant only to Fox News, right?

Blaming China has become the go-to move for people trying to deflect from their own inaction.
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Old 04-18-20, 08:18 AM
  #304  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Yup, that we don't really know the infection rate has been well-known from the beginning. Note that the article you linked makes very clear that even if this holds up, we can't jump to conclusions about the significance until we know whether there is immunity after infection and for how long.

All in all, it suggests that further study may yield very good news, but that we can't count on it yet.
Its not surprising that a greater proportion of the population has been exposed to the virus than we have known, precisely because limited testing has concentrated on those with symptoms or known contacts. There need to be more studies like this, before we know how common the infection is in the general population.
This was an antibody test and from what I have read, there have been problems with antibody tests giving reliable results. One of the problems being that other coronaviruses circulating-like ones that just cause a cold, produce similar antibodies, that could would show false positives. I don't know if this is the case here, its just something I have seen discussed.
If this study is accurate then about 3% of the population of Santa Clara county has been exposed. This is along way from herd immunity which would require around 60%.
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Old 04-18-20, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
Its not surprising that a greater proportion of the population has been exposed to the virus than we have known, precisely because limited testing has concentrated on those with symptoms or known contacts. There need to be more studies like this, before we know how common the infection is in the general population.
This was an antibody test and from what I have read, there have been problems with antibody tests giving reliable results. One of the problems being that other coronaviruses circulating-like ones that just cause a cold, produce similar antibodies, that could would show false positives. I don't know if this is the case here, its just something I have seen discussed.
If this study is accurate then about 3% of the population of Santa Clara county has been exposed. This is along way from herd immunity which would require around 60%.

Somebody posted in another thread that they tested people who volunteered through a Facebook page. Obviously, people with symptoms are more likely to seek out testing, so this study has a serious sampling problem.

Other studies are coming. Stay tuned.

BTW, 60% is premised on post-infection immunity. That's not really established yet, and Coronaviruses vary in this regard.
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Old 04-18-20, 09:40 AM
  #306  
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Herd immunity for measles is 97%. The 60% number for this seems exceptionally optimistic. That is lower than for flu.

The guys waiving confederate flags and assault weapons are claiming this pre-print that hasn't even undergone review yet justifies their claim that herd immunity is already present in the population.

Mere facts seem hardly relevant any more.
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Old 04-18-20, 10:04 AM
  #307  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Somebody posted in another thread that they tested people who volunteered through a Facebook page. Obviously, people with symptoms are more likely to seek out testing, so this study has a serious sampling problem.

Other studies are coming. Stay tuned.

BTW, 60% is premised on post-infection immunity. That's not really established yet, and Coronaviruses vary in this regard.
Yes it's just a guess. I've seen other numbers. They are all much greater than 3%
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Old 04-18-20, 10:34 AM
  #308  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Blaming China has become the go-to move for people trying to deflect from their own inaction.
Anyways, the U.S. CDC has run amoke for years. How about a little inside peek recent as 2018? ;"/

Use that CDC as one major weakness as an example, that such 'un-named' country as adversary has greatly learned about. They know our weaknesses. Its been going on for years. Most don't want to believe it. I don't want to touch on the subject of 'un-named' ideology, but they were getting boxed in though the time was ripe for strike.

US Atty Gen Bill Barr has been wrongly mocked as a fear generator along with Sec.State Mike Pompeo. But they have been sounding the warnings.

Pompeo address at convention to US Governor's.
From small city to very high level national infiltrated from 'un-named' country. Spies with real US identity created within and by our own country, they are here for nefarious reasons. The primary subject was 'un-named' country has infiltrated within the US and intentions.


Last edited by unterhausen; 04-18-20 at 12:45 PM.
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Old 04-18-20, 11:25 AM
  #309  
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So people still believe that an infected bat at some food market in China brought an entire world to its knees, killed thousands, put millions out of work, put an entire world population under house arrest. Amazing that one bat could accomplish all of that ….Something just doesn't add up,
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Old 04-18-20, 11:29 AM
  #310  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
So people still believe that an infected bat at some food market in China brought an entire world to its knees, killed thousands, put millions out of work, put an entire world population under house arrest. Amazing that one bat could accomplish all of that ….Something just doesn't add up,
Yes, this could only be the work of Hillary Clinton. Thank you for pointing out the fatal flaw.
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Old 04-18-20, 11:35 AM
  #311  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Yes, this could only be the work of Hillary Clinton. Thank you for pointing out the fatal flaw.
I'd want more information on the intelligence pointing at a lab breach as the source before drawing a conclusion. I would expect that China would devote resources to preventing another SARS. I would expect that China would work to obfuscate its involvement in such a breach. Neither conjecture indicates that this is engineered or intentional, nor do they change the fact that the United States and the world are ill equipped to fight a pandemic.
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Old 04-18-20, 11:40 AM
  #312  
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Originally Posted by Unca_Sam View Post
I'd want more information on the intelligence pointing at a lab breach as the source before drawing a conclusion. I would expect that China would devote resources to preventing another SARS. I would expect that China would work to obfuscate its involvement in such a breach. Neither conjecture indicates that this is engineered or intentional, nor do they change the fact that the United States and the world are ill equipped to fight a pandemic.
I have a copy of a (perfectly legitimate) paper published by the group in Wuhan in Journal of Virology from about 10 years ago where they are changing host-range specificity of bat coronaviruses by altering the spike protein. It isn't logically impossible that something got out of their lab, but so what? I really don't understand why that changes anything, or why it is any more likely than it coming from a bat or pangolin. We still have exactly the same problem. This is just a distraction.
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Old 04-18-20, 11:46 AM
  #313  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
So people still believe that an infected bat at some food market in China brought an entire world to its knees, killed thousands, put millions out of work, put an entire world population under house arrest. Amazing that one bat could accomplish all of that ….Something just doesn't add up,
Isn't it just a colony of bats that wiped entire villages out in the west African countries? Wasn't it just a beetle that wiped out North America's chestnut trees? It's just a tiny fly that's wiping out Florida's orange orchards.
Just like measles, this virus spreads before the body triggers a fever and inflammation to fight it. It's insidious and apparently well suited for widespread dispersal.
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Old 04-18-20, 11:48 AM
  #314  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
I have a copy of a (perfectly legitimate) paper published by the group in Wuhan in Journal of Virology from about 10 years ago where they are changing host-range specificity of bat coronaviruses by altering the spike protein. It isn't logically impossible that something got out of their lab, but so what? I really don't understand why that changes anything, or why it is any more likely than it coming from a bat or pangolin. We still have exactly the same problem. This is just a distraction.
We agree. The can of worms got opened somehow, we'll figure out how soon enough.
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Old 04-18-20, 01:08 PM
  #315  
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https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...g-to-covid-19/

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...se/ar-BB12urmA

Two articles about the anti-vaxxer movement during CV19.
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Old 04-18-20, 01:19 PM
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"Things I don't understand about science, statistics and the economy = Conspiracy."
Pretty much covers 25% of everything I read on social media and comments on news articles.

"Most of us will develop acquired immunity. The rest of y'all are screwed. Reopen the world for business as usual."
That covers another 25% of what I'm reading on social media and comments on the news.
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Old 04-18-20, 02:17 PM
  #317  
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Originally Posted by Unca_Sam View Post
Isn't it just a colony of bats that wiped entire villages out in the west African countries? Wasn't it just a beetle that wiped out North America's chestnut trees? It's just a tiny fly that's wiping out Florida's orange orchards.
Just like measles, this virus spreads before the body triggers a fever and inflammation to fight it. It's insidious and apparently well suited for widespread dispersal.
It seems clear from the evidence that it was a bat virus that has infected humans. The initial conclusion was that it was related to the wet market, is not illogical because keeping many live animals in close proximity to people is how viruses can mutate and jump the species barrier. Bats weren't kept at the Wuhan market so you need to have an intermediate species like pangolins.
Although many of the initial cases were linked to the market, the so-called "patient zero" was not. There is a virology lab in Wuhan where bat viruses (among others) are studied. If due to poor practises, one of these viruses infected somebody who then went to the market, it could start spreading from there. This does not appear to be an engineered or modified virus, but a wild virus. How did it get from bats to humans?

At this point we still don't know.

We do know that it is a bat virus that started propagating among humans in December 2019 in the vicinity of Wuhan. Everything else is conjecture.

Last edited by skookum; 04-18-20 at 02:18 PM. Reason: spolling
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Old 04-18-20, 02:57 PM
  #318  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
How did it get from bats to humans?

At this point we still don't know.
" We " the general public are not supposed to know...There is somebody out there who knows exactly how the virus leaked out and spread amongst the population but they've been silenced and told to keep their mouth shut....Chinese wet markets have been around for a long time and we never had anything like this happen before, blaming pangolins and bats is just a strategy to distract the public from the real causes and prevent the public form investigating what this is really about.

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Old 04-18-20, 03:03 PM
  #319  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Somebody posted in another thread that they tested people who volunteered through a Facebook page. Obviously, people with symptoms are more likely to seek out testing, so this study has a serious sampling problem.

Other studies are coming. Stay tuned.

BTW, 60% is premised on post-infection immunity. That's not really established yet, and Coronaviruses vary in this regard.
The NIAID is running a 10,000 person serosurvey in the NIH community and by mail. Last I heard, they had > 270,000 volunteers by email. They will not give results to participants, thereby avoiding some of the bias you mention. Did the Santa Clara study?
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Old 04-18-20, 03:04 PM
  #320  
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They've had wet markets and this never happened before ... nothing ever happens for the first time??
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Old 04-18-20, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
" We " the general public are not supposed to know...There is somebody out there who knows exactly how the virus leaked out and spread amongst the population but they've been silenced and told to keep their mouth shut....Chinese wet markets have been around for a long time and we never had anything like this happen before, blaming pangolins and bats is just a strategy to distract the public from the real causes and prevent the public form investigating what this is really about.
I figure either Hillary Clinton or Bill Gates knows where it started..

The 2003 SARS virus is thought to have started from a wet market in Guangdong.

Maybe this one didn't, but it started somewhere close to the wet market, and the wet market was likely a locus for transmission from person to person.
The wet market is a logical place to suspect, but it appears maybe it didn't start there. At this point it doesn't really matter, but I am sure eventually we will know.
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Old 04-18-20, 03:53 PM
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China was basically closed from the outside world from 1949 to the mid 70s. How many viruses could have started from places like wet markets and propagated within the population and then burnt themselves out, without the rest of the world knowing?
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Old 04-18-20, 03:53 PM
  #323  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
" We " the general public are not supposed to know...There is somebody out there who knows exactly how the virus leaked out and spread amongst the population but they've been silenced and told to keep their mouth shut....Chinese wet markets have been around for a long time and we never had anything like this happen before, blaming pangolins and bats is just a strategy to distract the public from the real causes and prevent the public form investigating what this is really about.

Lame conspiracy theory is lame.

Sorry, but spread of a virus from animal to human is really not that difficult to comprehend, is it? Basically, it happens all the time. All these stupid theories start with some variation of "we're supposed to believe" , then states the simplest explanation as if saying it that way makes it implausible, then goes off into a flight of fancy without any evidence. This is just the latest iteration.
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Old 04-18-20, 03:58 PM
  #324  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
China was basically closed from the outside world from 1949 to the mid 70s. How many viruses could have started from places like wet markets and propagated within the population and then burnt themselves out, without the rest of the world knowing?

This really is the big difference, and it's not just China. If a virus becomes community spread in one place, it generally is going to be on a plane for somewhere else within days or even hours.
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Old 04-18-20, 03:58 PM
  #325  
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