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When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

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When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

Old 06-28-20, 07:36 AM
  #26  
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Race 8 Churchill Downs

Bashford Manor Stakes

4:45 PM

Win Place Show
6 Cazadero $2.80 $2.40 $2.10
7 County Final $6.80 $4.80
5 Herd Immunity $4.60


A well beaten third yesterday, Herd Immunity may need softer company to have an impact.
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Old 06-28-20, 10:09 AM
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Here is the single weirdest thing about this pandemic to me...

Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
I don't.

I think this thing behaves in a very weird way.


...all the people (still living) you see dancing, stoned out of their minds at this concert, are now in the high risk group.
I just find it very strange that all the Grateful Dead followers are so susceptible. Coincidence ? I think not.
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Old 06-28-20, 10:11 AM
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The Head Dead Head is already Dead.

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Old 06-28-20, 11:05 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
Supposed to do my first one on Wednesday. Had I not had to cancel my planned June trip I would be flying home from Montana today after two weeks of riding. One issue for some is that campgrounds might still be closed. PA and NJ only recently opened state park campgrounds. NJ ones are only open at 50% capacity. Places in both states are heavily booked even outside the upcoming holiday weekend as people make up for lost time.
I don't use public transportation a lot, but at this time, I'm actively avoiding it. No sense in getting stuck in a plan for hours if I don't need it. I can't imagine the impact this virus has had across the board on transportation.
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Old 06-28-20, 11:17 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by clubman View Post
Quarantines and travel restrictions and social distancing are the only things that will work, for now. We shut down our provincial borders here, most everyone wears masks and obeys self-isolation. Result...no new infections in Nova Scotia, PEI or Newfoundland in weeks. Zero.
I'm seriously worried about you guys south of the 49th. You have to listen to and empower health authorities and bureaucrats to make critical decisions. Politicians are inherently incapable of making sound unbiased decisions and should be focused on getting financial support into the hands of everyone who needs it. No one will open their borders to America until you get this thing under control.
Quote taken a little out of context. The point was that the infection rate may be dropping in the northeast in a large part due to a good chunk of the population already having gotten sick. So we're a little late with extreme measures to protect them.

One really needs to go into Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, and etc... and try to figure out just how many have the antibodies.

While nobody really wants to get sick, they may be better off allowing the disease to burn through the rest of the "healthy" population.

A quarantine against Florida, Arizona, and other places is more of a show of force than giving any real benefit to at least much of New York & New Jersey.
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Old 06-28-20, 02:22 PM
  #31  
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I am the Northeast, just like Maine. Smaller population bases made it easier to shut the region down early without a huge political backlash. There's no herd immunity here...the demographic that got clobbered were seniors in nursing homes and that artificially raised the death toll. Sure you can let people get sick but that doesn't save the vulnerable people from dying, it only allows weaker health care policies manage the issue,and that could be far down the road. If you open, people die, your choice.
Sorry, didn't mean to jump in out of context but it's so frustrating to see the lack of faith in a health system that no one will take seriously. All these remarkably intelligent and rational people are swept aside by elected clowns. You have to shut down your economy, manage the social collapse as best you can, or let hundreds of thousands more Americans die in order to save a broken economic system without any guarantees that you'll beat this virus. If you put your money on long shots, you'll lose.

Good luck.
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Old 06-28-20, 03:19 PM
  #32  
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The concept of herd immunity is irrelevant since there is not a single experimental study of any kind which proves that viruses are infectious.

This is not even mentioning the fact that "coronavirus" has never been isolated.

I have already demonstrated that "coronavirus testing" is a complete fiction. The alleged "coronavirus" is simply random genetic material from lung fluid. Some portion of this genetic sequence allegedly matched 79% of some portion of the "sars" genetic sequence. A 79% match is not a match, even if sars was an actual virus, which there is no proof that it is.

You are strictly in the realm of pixel dust and fairy tales here.

Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
A recent CDC report indicated that about about 10 COVID cases have gone undetected in the past for every case that has been detected. See discussion here.
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Old 06-28-20, 04:25 PM
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I realize I am responding after this individual was banned, but I feel compelled to set the record straight.

Originally Posted by jjafterdark View Post
The concept of herd immunity is irrelevant since there is not a single experimental study of any kind which proves that viruses are infectious.
This is absolutely false. There are hundreds of thousands of such experiments.

For SARS-CoV-1: https://www.nature.com/articles/423240a

The idea that this is something that is open for debate is utter insanity.

This is not even mentioning the fact that "coronavirus" has never been isolated.
This, too, is completely fraudulent. There are now over 55,000 RNA sequences of SARS-CoV-2 in the public databases. There are also hundreds of other coronaviruses.

Look here: https://www.gisaid.org

Here is a whole book on the subject of culturing coronaviruses: https://link.springer.com/book/10.10...-1-4939-2438-7


I have already demonstrated that "coronavirus testing" is a complete fiction. The alleged "coronavirus" is simply random genetic material from lung fluid. Some portion of this genetic sequence allegedly matched 79% of some portion of the "sars" genetic sequence. A 79% match is not a match, even if sars was an actual virus, which there is no proof that it is.

You are strictly in the realm of pixel dust and fairy tales here.
Again, utter nonsense and completely fraudulent claims. I have no idea what would motivate someone to make such assertions.

Last edited by wgscott; 06-28-20 at 08:03 PM.
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Old 06-28-20, 06:12 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Again, utter nonsense and completely fraudulent claims. I have no idea what would motivate someone to make such assertions.
...I actually know the answer to this, but if I told you, the Illuminati would send one of their assassins to make quick work of me.
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Old 06-28-20, 06:14 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
The Head Dead Head is already Dead.
...do you think he's gratefully dead ? I'm betting not.
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Old 06-30-20, 12:15 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
I realize I am responding after this individual was banned, but I feel compelled to set the record straight.



This is absolutely false. There are hundreds of thousands of such experiments.

For SARS-CoV-1: https://www.nature.com/articles/423240a

The idea that this is something that is open for debate is utter insanity.



This, too, is completely fraudulent. There are now over 55,000 RNA sequences of SARS-CoV-2 in the public databases. There are also hundreds of other coronaviruses.

Look here: https://www.gisaid.org

Here is a whole book on the subject of culturing coronaviruses: https://link.springer.com/book/10.10...-1-4939-2438-7




Again, utter nonsense and completely fraudulent claims. I have no idea what would motivate someone to make such assertions.

I no longer respond to that troll... he can bait me all he wants but he isn't worth responding to, unfortunately I have to take care of people like him who end up in my ICU with severe ARDs or pulmonary embolism not due to any other cause and luckily with respiratory acidosis they physically can't verbally argue with me, much less breathe so I don't have to hear their conspiracy theories as I just do my job to get them out of the ICU...
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Old 06-30-20, 01:26 PM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
..
While nobody really wants to get sick, they may be better off allowing the disease to burn through the rest of the "healthy" population.
.
Sounds like the Swedish approach and with 50% of the U.S. population having underlying co-morbidity issues, I think I'll pass.
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Old 06-30-20, 03:39 PM
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Herd immunity article:

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19
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Old 07-01-20, 06:16 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
Yep. The typically recited HIT is a BOTE calculation based on Ro, and the true HIT is quite a bit more complicated than that. That article references the article I posted earlier. The math was interesting but waaaaay over my head, so I couldn't really say whether I believed the conclusions or not. The authors claimed their models correlated closely with data from Italy and I think France, however.

Also, herd immunity even below the HIT is still a good thing, as it still reduces the transmission of the disease to others and helps slow new infections to below what it would have been otherwise.
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Old 07-01-20, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
I realize I am responding after this individual was banned, but I feel compelled to set the record straight.

This is absolutely false. There are hundreds of thousands of such experiments.
For SARS-CoV-1: https://www.nature.com/articles/423240a

The idea that this is something that is open for debate is utter insanity.
This, too, is completely fraudulent. There are now over 55,000 RNA sequences of SARS-CoV-2 in the public databases. There are also hundreds of other coronaviruses.
Look here: https://www.gisaid.org
Here is a whole book on the subject of culturing coronaviruses: https://link.springer.com/book/10.10...-1-4939-2438-7Again, utter nonsense and completely fraudulent claims. I have no idea what would motivate someone to make such assertions.
im responding for JJ not because i concur but because > the JJs may be off the beaten paths and utterly disoriented BUT how do you explain the mumbo jumbo that the CORONA VIRUS TASK FORCE FORCES on the people at every turn > no national plan > no contact testing > no free masks > no free sanitizer > no FREE covid care > no advice save for buy some masks & stay home ... the ameriKan government has done nothing but hide in the shadow of an 80yr old HIV researcher who will be dead long before COVIDs effects ebb ... given this is the beaten path and this is AMERICA the GREAT what have we to show for the $3 trillion disgorgement other than riots spurred mass idolatry & calls for trumps head ... is it no wonder that JJs exist because ameriKa will not PUBLICLY & POLITICALLY own up to its COVID failures beginning with the ill conceived initial shut down ... 40% of ameriKa will not confront rational questioning of its condition so in this know nothing void there are fertile places in internet world where all sorts of idiosyncratic ideas take life ... unless & until ameriKa congeals behind a leader it will wander asunder with crazies at every dawn spewing new bad ideas SO > how do you respond to the JJs when the Faucis are really not giving the US anything at all ?
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Old 07-01-20, 01:40 PM
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The incompetence of the response has nothing to do with his assertion that the virus doesn't exist.

How many > signs do you need?
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Old 07-01-20, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
im responding for JJ not because i concur but because > the JJs may be off the beaten paths and utterly disoriented BUT how do you explain the mumbo jumbo that the CORONA VIRUS TASK FORCE FORCES on the people at every turn > no national plan > no contact testing > no free masks > no free sanitizer > no FREE covid care > no advice save for buy some masks & stay home ... the ameriKan government has done nothing but hide in the shadow of an 80yr old HIV researcher who will be dead long before COVIDs effects ebb ... given this is the beaten path and this is AMERICA the GREAT what have we to show for the $3 trillion disgorgement other than riots spurred mass idolatry & calls for trumps head ... is it no wonder that JJs exist because ameriKa will not PUBLICLY & POLITICALLY own up to its COVID failures beginning with the ill conceived initial shut down ... 40% of ameriKa will not confront rational questioning of its condition so in this know nothing void there are fertile places in internet world where all sorts of idiosyncratic ideas take life ... unless & until ameriKa congeals behind a leader it will wander asunder with crazies at every dawn spewing new bad ideas SO > how do you respond to the JJs when the Faucis are really not giving the US anything at all ?
You would probably get a better response if you could construct a coherent post. I think you might have some interesting points there but I am not sure. Its too difficult to parse.Or it might be just politics, in which case it is in the wrong sub forum.
Have a happy and productive day.

Last edited by skookum; 07-01-20 at 01:45 PM. Reason: spolling
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Old 07-01-20, 01:53 PM
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Old 07-01-20, 01:58 PM
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^^^^^ it's NOT that there is a sanity to covid-19 denial but if any person dealt with a problem in the manner that ameriKa is dealing with this there would be an involuntary commitment or an arrest or at the least full psych work up YET we are left adrift to ponder the wind's waves so i see Fauci as an ancient mariner without course or charts SO with your science what can you tell me or anyone else that would give pause to the negativity i direct toward the COVID GASP FORCE
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Old 07-01-20, 02:12 PM
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Twitter thread by Nicholas Christakis, referring to possible herd immunity in Ischgl, Austria, source of one of the early covid 19 outbreaks.



In early March 2020, a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak at a ski resort in Ischgl, Austria, initiated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 throughout Austria and Northern Europe. Thousands of infections can be traced back to Ischgl. In a recent study by Medical University of Innsbruck investigators, 42.4 percent of those living in Ischgl were shown to be carrying the new coronavirus antibodies, indicating they had been infected in the COVID-19 pandemic. Between April 21 and 27, a cross-sectional epidemiologic study targeting the full population of Ischgl (n= app. 1,867), of which 79 percent could be included (n=1473), was performed. For each individual, the study involved a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test for the virus, antibody testing, and a questionnaire. In addition, the SARS-CoV-2 PCR+ cases reported to the authorities were included. The seroprevalence was 42 percent and individuals under 18 showed a significantly lower seroprevalence (27 percent) than adults (45 percent). However, only 105 study participants remembered if they had a previous positive PCR result. The clinical course was generally mild and only two individuals in Ischgl had died from infection corresponding to an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.26 percent. In the first week of April, a public screening in Ischgl had found 19 percent of the population to be PCR+. However, only 8 (0.5 percent) individuals were newly diagnosed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the study conducted 2-3 weeks later. Ischgl was hit early and hard by SARS-CoV-2, which led to a high local seroprevalence of 42 percent, that was lower in individuals below the age of 18 than in adults with a low IFR. As nonpharmaceutical interventions (e.g. social distancing, mask wearing) had already reduced virus spread, mathematical models conclude that the high seroprevalence significantly contributed to the drastic decline of new infections during April.

Last edited by skookum; 07-01-20 at 02:28 PM.
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Old 07-01-20, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
You would probably get a better response if you could construct a coherent post. I think you might have some interesting points there but I am not sure. Its too difficult to parse.Or it might be just politics, in which case it is in the wrong sub forum.
Have a happy and productive day.
>>> the post is clear & direct & succinct and as usual evokes a withered insouciance ... im not trying to troll im trying to make people think about what FAUCI et al has been feeding US so i guess we got 1 cook & a pot of strange tasting stew and so it's eat it or starve ?!
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Old 07-01-20, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
>>> the post is clear & direct & succinct and as usual evokes a withered insouciance ... im not trying to troll im trying to make people think about what FAUCI et al has been feeding US so i guess we got 1 cook & a pot of strange tasting stew and so it's eat it or starve ?!
Learn to express yourself clearly or be forever ignored.
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Old 07-01-20, 02:50 PM
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.
...lately, whenever I hear the phrase "Dr. Fauci", it's coming through to my awareness as "Dr, Faustus".

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Old 07-01-20, 02:52 PM
  #49  
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^^^reminds me of one of those Coronavirus Task Force press briefings ^^^
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Old 07-01-20, 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
Learn to express yourself clearly or be forever ignored.
>>> at least U & WG are more smirk than jerk you 2 grasshoppers may find that CLEARLESSNESS is a fault that one can see through in time IF one would only use more than 1 mind > good luck
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