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When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

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When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

Old 07-04-20, 06:52 AM
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that medical news article is mentioned in this Reason article
As Medical News explains, the Stanford team created graphs for each outbreak using data that takes into account four trends. The first three are the total case number, the total death number, and their ratio, that is, the death rate. The fourth measure is the ratio of the total cases (or deaths) for today divided by the same ratio of yesterday. This is known as the "fractional change function." This analysis revealed that, instead of growing exponentially, the epidemics in many regions are actually slowing down exponentially with time. (Interestingly, the daily rate of U.S. COVID-19 deaths has been slowing down, but the daily number of diagnosed cases has started growing once again.) So how does Levitt account for the epidemic's self-flattening behavior?

Levitt and his colleagues argue, "The existence of invisible cases of individuals who are mildly symptomatic and, therefore, not counted as confirmed cases may explain the non-exponential behavior of COVID- 19: the known cases cannot easily find people to infect as the hidden invisible cases have already infected them." They also acknowledge that changes in behavior such as the wide adoption of social distancing and mask-wearing would also contribute to flattening the epidemic.
The article also references an MIT study that has somewhat different conclusions.

Last week, a team of modelers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management released a preprint of their study that calculates that total global cases and deaths through June 18, 2020, are estimated to be 11.8 and 1.48 times greater than diagnosed cases and officially counted deaths, that is, respectively, at 88.5 million cases and 600,000 deaths as of that date. On the basis of those estimates, they reckon that the global average IFR is just under 0.7 percent.

The MIT researchers further calculate that the infected percentage of each individual country and their IFRs and note that these estimates "vary substantially, e.g., Ecuador (18%; 0.61%), Chile (15.5%; 0.57%), Mexico (8.8%; 0.69%), Iran (7.9%; 0.44%), USA (5.3%; 0.99%), UK (5.2%; 1.59%), Iceland (1.65%, 0.56%), New Zealand (0.1%, 0.64%), but all nations remain well below the level needed for herd immunity."
Just to cheer you up..

Last edited by skookum; 07-04-20 at 06:52 AM. Reason: errors
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Old 07-04-20, 07:54 AM
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^^^^ where has herd immunity to a deadly disease EVER occurred in less than a generation ?
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Old 07-04-20, 07:58 AM
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^^^^ HERD IMMUNITY is another way of saying MUTATION so to have "herd immunity" mankind will need to mutate
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Old 07-04-20, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
^^^^ where has herd immunity to a deadly disease EVER occurred in less than a generation ?
Measles. Polio. Rubella. Mumps. Smallpox.

Of course, what they all have in common are potent, effective vaccines.
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Old 07-04-20, 07:59 AM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
^^^^ HERD IMMUNITY is another way of saying MUTATION so to have "herd immunity" mankind will need to mutate
False.
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Old 07-04-20, 08:17 AM
  #81  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
False.
??? > vaccines are an artificial means of combatting an outbreak and take years & years (patents & patents and lawsuits & lawsuits) to be safely evaluated so when one talks of a en mass delivered trialed vaccine that will create HERD SAFETY they are hoping & wishing for an event that is nowhwhere in the near future whereas HERD IMMUNITY is a generational concept of bio evolution coopted by big pharma propaganda
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Old 07-04-20, 08:21 AM
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I'm not a post-modernist >>> I don't have the luxury of making up facts like you do.
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Old 07-04-20, 08:28 AM
  #83  
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^^^^ well i could have a new romancer IF he would just get me a vaccine by XMAS
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Old 07-04-20, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
^^^^ well i could have a new romancer IF he would just get me a vaccine by XMAS
Well, the orange guy makes a lot of promises he doesn't keep.
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Old 07-04-20, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
^^^^ well i could have a new romancer IF he would just get me a vaccine by XMAS
You would take something develop by big pharma?
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Old 07-04-20, 08:52 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Measles. Polio. Rubella. Mumps. Smallpox.

Of course, what they all have in common are potent, effective vaccines.
To a large extent, before vaccines, every major disease swept through the human population, then died back.

So, the 1918 flu swept through the human population, then mostly died back, although it may have continued activity in the pigs, and bounced back to humans every few decades.

Plagues would sweep through the population infecting large portions of the people in dense populous regions. Some individuals might hide out in isolated regions. But, over perhaps a year or two the plague would take it's brutal toll, then mosly die back.

Many of the former plagues still exist today. Yersinia Pestis, or Cholera. They are largely controlled through better heigine, as well as effective treatments, and better understanding of how to provide supportive care.
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Old 07-04-20, 08:55 AM
  #87  
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Ebola "dies back." Do you think Ebola herd immunity is a significant factor?
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Old 07-04-20, 09:17 AM
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Genetic immunity to a disease? Over centuries, Smallpox survivors may have developed some level of genetic immunity to the disease, reducing the death toll. Those who survived were less susceptible to severe disease than those who succumbed.

But, when the disease was introduced to the Americas, the effects were devastating.

There are some theories that heterozygous sickle cell disease my be protective against Malaria, and perhaps other diseases, while homozygous disease can be devestating.
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Old 07-04-20, 09:18 AM
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post
You would take something develop by big pharma?
>> if monsanto can ROUND UP enough COVID cure soy seeds and get the crop$$$ to market the herd (ME?) will be scarfing it in the meantime im ODing on poorman's cloroquine (tonic) & GIN
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Old 07-04-20, 09:37 AM
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Looks like you are off to a good start.
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Old 07-04-20, 09:42 AM
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I’m thinking of the days in medieval times when they would catapult dead people that died of a plague. Over the walls of the enemies fort with the intention of making them all sick.
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Old 07-04-20, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Genetic immunity to a disease? Over centuries, Smallpox survivors may have developed some level of genetic immunity to the disease, reducing the death toll. Those who survived were less susceptible to severe disease than those who succumbed.

But, when the disease was introduced to the Americas, the effects were devastating.

There are some theories that heterozygous sickle cell disease my be protective against Malaria, and perhaps other diseases, while homozygous disease can be devestating.
Sickle cells effect of protecting its carriers against malaria is mechanical. A person in active crisis has blood hemoglobin so dysfunctional that it does not have enough oxygen to support the malaria parasite.
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Old 07-04-20, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
Sickle cells effect of protecting its carriers against malaria is mechanical. A person in active crisis has blood hemoglobin so dysfunctional that it does not have enough oxygen to support the malaria parasite.
Heterozygous is generally asymptomatic in the individual, but still apparently helps some with Malaria.
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Old 07-04-20, 05:37 PM
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In the '90s I was close to someone with a genetic disease similar to sickle cell (but far less common; she was Asian). I watched her go through crisis. Knew of her diagnoses, first of sickle cell, which shouldn't have been possible. After that diagnosis, I went to VIrgina Mason's library in Seattle and copied everything they had in language I could read. Eye-opening. Basically, in crises, the body is starved of oxygen because the hemoglobin both carries less and the hemoglobin cells change shape to one that will not pass through the capillaries. Everything I saw when she was i n crises fit with that.

A few years later, I worked with a Black co-worker who told me his daughter, 12 yo, had sickle cell but no symptoms yet. A few years later, we worked together again and I got regular updates on her health. What a curse. The cruel irony that the disease is so prevalent because that curse meant their predecessors lived while near entire populations died from malaria.
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Old 07-04-20, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
Iím thinking of the days in medieval times when they would catapult dead people that died of a plague. Over the walls of the enemies fort with the intention of making them all sick.
and today the chinese flew not threw the COVID over trump's wall into US > history repeats & repeats & re ..
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Old 07-04-20, 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
In the '90s I was close to someone with a genetic disease similar to sickle cell (but far less common; she was Asian). I watched her go through crisis. Knew of her diagnoses, first of sickle cell, which shouldn't have been possible. After that diagnosis, I went to VIrgina Mason's library in Seattle and copied everything they had in language I could read. Eye-opening. Basically, in crises, the body is starved of oxygen because the hemoglobin both carries less and the hemoglobin cells change shape to one that will not pass through the capillaries. Everything I saw when she was i n crises fit with that.

A few years later, I worked with a Black co-worker who told me his daughter, 12 yo, had sickle cell but no symptoms yet. A few years later, we worked together again and I got regular updates on her health. What a curse. The cruel irony that the disease is so prevalent because that curse meant their predecessors lived while near entire populations died from malaria.
Here is an article using CRISPR as a treatment. It is working on one patient so far.

Mother-of-four who became the first US patient to have her genes edited with groundbreaking CRISPR tool to treat sickle cell disease says she is free of pain meds and transfusions a year later

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-symptoms.html
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Old 07-04-20, 08:08 PM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
and today the chinese flew not threw the COVID over trump's wall into US > history repeats & repeats & re ..

Up to 8,000 Chinese nationals came into US after Trump banned travel due to coronavirus: AP

More than 600 flights brought in travelers from these areas after Trump announced his travel ban in late January and it was enacted Feb. 2.

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Old 07-04-20, 08:11 PM
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Yet they were clever enough to sneak in their more aggressive strain via Europe.
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Old 07-04-20, 08:52 PM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Ebola "dies back." Do you think Ebola herd immunity is a significant factor?
Good question. What are your thoughts? I honestly don't know. What do you think?
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Old 07-04-20, 09:02 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
Good question. What are your thoughts? I honestly don't know. What do you think?
Ebola is transmitted through blood, body fluids, or direct contact. Or eating infected meats.

It is not nearly as easy to pass on as COVID, and should be able to be controlled with PPE, and careful hygiene. No kissing the dead.

Diseases are controlled by limiting the number of people each infected individual passes the disease on to. If less than 1, the disease dies out. if greater than 1, the disease spreads.

Reducing the number of succeptible individuals (quarantines, herd immunity, etc) can help.
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