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How long are we going to continue to play like we can stop this?

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How long are we going to continue to play like we can stop this?

Old 07-05-20, 12:42 PM
  #76  
Clyde1820
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Yup.

No way to stop it. Probably no way to limit its incursion into every little village across the planet. No way to know, for certain, whether its impacts on a given person are going to be inconsequential or deadly, or anything in between.

About all that can be said for "slowing" procedures: is that they might, to some degree, slow the progressive spread.

About all that can be said for such procedures: it's hopeful that some measure of reduction of impact upon the healthcare infrastructure might occur, via widespread implementation of such.

Won't likely alter its impact one iota, aside from slowing its impact upon healthcare.

In which regard it's very much like influenza or cold, on a population. All of these things are here to stay, almost certainly. And pretty much all we do helps only a little, and only insofar impact on healthcare is concerned. To the extent any drugs might aid things, hopefully some impact on the negative aspects of aggressive inflammatory response can occur, and hopefully in some cases it can keep people from the most-severe aspects of this illness.

I suppose that means I'm resigned to accept what's occurring. But then, it's about all one can do, given there's no cure and no real way of knowing a given person's risk of contracting it.

Given no mask I can devise (nor acquire) can keep all virus-laden aerosol exhalation (or sneeze or cough) from getting into the surrounding air and on surrounding surfaces, there's only the hope that somewhat less of a mess might occur with a mask.

And so, we've got sanitizing, basic hygiene, frequent washing of hands and clothing, distancing and whatever else we might do to reduce our close contact with others.

About all that can be done. Whatever good it does.

In the end, it'll be darned near everywhere anyway. And we'll be left with the weaker, more-unresponsive (immunity-wise) in the population being most at-risk. Without much else that can be done.

Can't exactly erase all global productivity for a year or two or more, on the off-chance that this thing can be sidestepped.

Sad. but true: it is what it is. And no amount of wishing it were otherwise will make that happen.

Would love to see the current research bear some fruit. I'm hopeful it'll bear some. I'm doubtful it'll "cure" a thing. If a minor medical miracle does occur, and a vaccine is found, hopefully it'll be effective for a great percentage of people.


Of course, the other perspective is, seemingly, a bit less palatable: given that the global population of humans is continuing to grow as fast as it is, perhaps a thinning of some of the weaker members of the species isn't a completely bad thing. We all go at some point, in some way. All of us. Via one disease or another, via injury, or via wearing out. To the extent some go now, via this thing, means the rest of the people of the world can get to the business of surviving as best we can. As with any other affliction one can think of. Given that something must be produced before it can be consumed, perhaps that's not all bad. Sad, I suppose. But very true.

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Old 07-05-20, 12:43 PM
  #77  
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I went to the farmers market yesterday. They require masks. Area is roped off and they keep count. Almost all wore masks at least close to properly, many had really good ones and I saw quite a few with double masks. (I use a 3M contractors 2 strap dust mask, a mask that fits my face well and I have used for 40 years (no, not the same mask!) and wear a woman's bandero (sp) over it. No, not an N95 but everything I breath goes through a lot of material as does my exhale and my glasses don't fog,)

Now that was POC Portland. The close suburban Fred Meyers was not as good but still not bad.

Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
Many people wear them below the nose. Know how they test for the virus? By sticking a swab up your nose, not In your mouth. What should that tell people? To tell you the truth, Iím sick of many people.
You are seeing volunteers stepping up and doing random testing. They are taking samples to monitor air quality and culturing those samples to achieve virus levels high enough to be measured. Typical sampling rate, about 6 per minute. The testing does have its limitations. The equipment gets contaminated, has to be taken out of service and disinfected. Not all units survive the process and when returned to service, the results are not reliable. Good thing is there seems to be an endless supply of new samplers.

Psychologists are rejoicing, Positivity in this country is growing daily. (And we now have good tests to track this trait once considered foo-foo.)

It's all going over my head. I fully intend to stay a cynic.

Ben
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Old 07-05-20, 01:36 PM
  #78  
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
I went to the farmers market yesterday. They require masks. Area is roped off and they keep count. Almost all wore masks at least close to properly, many had really good ones and I saw quite a few with double masks. (I use a 3M contractors 2 strap dust mask, a mask that fits my face well and I have used for 40 years (no, not the same mask!) and wear a woman's bandero (sp) over it. No, not an N95 but everything I breath goes through a lot of material as does my exhale and my glasses don't fog,)

Now that was POC Portland. The close suburban Fred Meyers was not as good but still not bad.



You are seeing volunteers stepping up and doing random testing. They are taking samples to monitor air quality and culturing those samples to achieve virus levels high enough to be measured. Typical sampling rate, about 6 per minute. The testing does have its limitations. The equipment gets contaminated, has to be taken out of service and disinfected. Not all units survive the process and when returned to service, the results are not reliable. Good thing is there seems to be an endless supply of new samplers.

Psychologists are rejoicing, Positivity in this country is growing daily. (And we now have good tests to track this trait once considered foo-foo.)

It's all going over my head. I fully intend to stay a cynic.

Ben
The point was that they stick the swab up your nose, not in your mouth, so one should cover the nose, not just the mouth.
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Old 07-05-20, 01:47 PM
  #79  
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
Can't exactly erase all global productivity for a year or two or more, on the off-chance that this thing can be sidestepped.

Sad. but true: it is what it is. And no amount of wishing it were otherwise will make that happen.

Would love to see the current research bear some fruit. I'm hopeful it'll bear some. I'm doubtful it'll "cure" a thing. If a minor medical miracle does occur, and a vaccine is found, hopefully it'll be effective for a great percentage of people.


Of course, the other perspective is, seemingly, a bit less palatable: given that the global population of humans is continuing to grow as fast as it is, perhaps a thinning of some of the weaker members of the species isn't a completely bad thing. We all go at some point, in some way. All of us. Via one disease or another, via injury, or via wearing out. To the extent some go now, via this thing, means the rest of the people of the world can get to the business of surviving as best we can. As with any other affliction one can think of. Given that something must be produced before it can be consumed, perhaps that's not all bad. Sad, I suppose. But very true.

The current objective seems to be that we can just wait this out and wreck the world economy to "maybe" save some lives. CERTAINLY to slow the load on health care which arguably is saving lives based simply on medical workers not having to guess who might recover from further effort, much like we saw in Italy at the beginning of this. In that, I would concede one benefit to hiding out. BUT, as we have seen the moment we go out some little pocket of the virus holding out in a person who is showing no symptoms (apparently fairly common with this) and using a fever as the benchmark for determination which many asymptomatic also don't have....and we are back to the same thing over again.

I think our past "vaccination" record with other prevalent virus' is a great indication of how well this project is going to go, along with I damned sure am not fool enough to be in line for some mix of who knows what they mixed up in a few months. A blink where it comes to knowing what they really have. I will take my chances with the virus, thanks. Have we cured AIDS yet? :shifty:
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Old 07-05-20, 01:53 PM
  #80  
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
Won't likely alter its impact one iota, aside from slowing its impact upon healthcare.
If we can limit the spread to say 1/4 of the country by the time a vaccine comes out, then 3/4 of the country can get the vaccine and we may be able to knock the virus out. That is if a good portion of the population either gets the vaccine or gets a positive antibody (or RNA) test.

So, say
82 million citizens in the USA get infected.
1% die, or about 820,000 dead.

248 million get vaccinated.
1% or 2.5 million lives SAVED.

Of course, it would be unlikely to see 100% of the population infected, but without a vaccine, more and more would get hit with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th waves of the virus. Every winter? Every couple of winters?

And, there could be some morbidity, or even mortality from the vaccine. And, it is unlikely that the vaccine will be 100% effective. But, reduce the number of susseceptable individuals by say 90%, and the virus will die out.

Even if the virus mutates for future waves, those that either have been infected, or get vaccinated may have partial immunity. And, once the first vaccine is made and approved, future vaccines might be easier to develop.
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Old 07-05-20, 02:04 PM
  #81  
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We can't stop the virus so we shouldn't make things less bad?

The videos wrecked the economy no matter how we react. Normal is off the table now.
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Old 07-05-20, 02:10 PM
  #82  
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Old 07-05-20, 02:17 PM
  #83  
Juan Foote
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
We can't stop the virus so we shouldn't make things less bad?

The videos wrecked the economy no matter how we react. Normal is off the table now.

IDK, I suppose the juxtaposition in this is that there are people with a twisted enough process to see the positive in this running it's course in a natural way while we continue with life and business as normally as we can, given the circumstance. The world economy and it's future debt holders are being served and untenable bill.
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Old 07-05-20, 02:17 PM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by Juan Foote View Post
I think our past "vaccination" record with other prevalent virus' is a great indication of how well this project is going to go, along with I damned sure am not fool enough to be in line for some mix of who knows what they mixed up in a few months. A blink where it comes to knowing what they really have. I will take my chances with the virus, thanks. Have we cured AIDS yet? :shifty:
I probably won't be the first in line for the vaccine either. In part because I think that even though I might experience high morbidity from the disease, I likely won't die from it.

And, if I manage to limit my exposure for the first year, I should be able to wait a couple of additional months.

And, of course, a little unselfishness. Give the first batch to those with a higher exposure risk or higher health risk.

Yes, it will also give time to see the real-world morbidity from the vaccine and efficacy.

Nonetheless, I do believe that a vaccine is the answer to this, and will get vaccinated when it is available to all.

As far as whether they have "cured" AIDS yet... So far no vaccine, although there may be continuing trials. But, at least in the first world nations, there are longterm treatments for AIDS that have been very effective at putting the disease into longterm remission. Magic Johnson has been living with AIDS for almost 30 years, and while it may ultimately impact his life expectancy, in no way has it been a rapid death sentence.

Study: Lower COVID Risk for HIV-Positive People on Antiretrovirals

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Old 07-05-20, 02:30 PM
  #85  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
I probably won't be the first in line for the vaccine either.
Nonetheless, I do believe that a vaccine is the answer to this, and will get vaccinated when it is available to all.
Yeah, I am not anti-vax or anything, but not sure that I would feel confident in a newly emergent one. I also don't do the Flu shot (any more). It has, in every case I have done so, seemed to be ineffective, at best.

As to the AIDS/HIV reference, I was just being Richard, and it's a totally different subject at hand. I should not have swerved into that lane here.
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Old 07-05-20, 02:48 PM
  #86  
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Originally Posted by Juan Foote View Post
Yeah, I am not anti-vax or anything, but not sure that I would feel confident in a newly emergent one. I also don't do the Flu shot (any more). It has, in every case I have done so, seemed to be ineffective, at best.
For years I had felt that I would occasionally get a mild version of the flu, and avoided the vaccine. Some people would get sinus congestion. Instead, I would always get chest congestion.

I was able to miss the 2009 resurgence of the Swine Flu. And, didn't get the vaccine as I felt others were more needing of it.

Then Swine Flu died back for a few years and resurged a couple of times and I didn't get the vaccine.

A couple of years ago I got really sick with what appeared to be a viral pneumonia, perhaps getting the 3rd wave of Swine Flu. For some reason no samples were taken, but if I hadn't been fairly active, it could have taken my life. It has left me with a long-term cough. I keep hoping that this will be the year I finally conquer the cough.

It also leaves me more leary of COVID.

Anyway, I have started getting the flu vaccine more regularly, although not as soon as it is released.

I will get my flu vaccine early this fall, in part to help differentiate Influenza from COVID.
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Old 07-05-20, 03:08 PM
  #87  
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Originally Posted by Kat12 View Post
You know, the question I keep asking people who say "people are going to die, oh well" is, "So if it was guaranteed the people who died would be you and your family, you're cool with that?"

Strangely, not one of them has seen fit to answer that question...
A person's specific feeling towards it doesn't change the outcome. Until there is a vaccine, every person on earth will get this virus and so will people not even born yet eventually. It is just a matter of when. Your specific outcome from it will be close to the statistical average of those before you.

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Old 07-05-20, 03:41 PM
  #88  
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Originally Posted by u235 View Post
A person's specific feeling towards it doesn't change the outcome. Until there is a vaccine, every person on earth will get this virus and so will people not even born yet eventually. It is just a matter of when. Your specific outcome from it will be close to the statistical average of those before you.
The alternative to a defeatist attitude is to manage behavior to limit the spread until, hopefully, a vaccine is available. In our province of 5 million, for example, it would take another 500 yrs before 100% of our population was infected. Clearly some locations have done a better job of managing behavior than others but even in locations with high levels a month or two back they've managed to dramatically reduce the rate of infection. There is a reasonable likelihood a vaccine will available in the 12-24 month timeframe. Even if the vaccine is not 100% effective we can still achieve herd immunity through a combination of behavior changes and vaccines.
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Old 07-05-20, 03:59 PM
  #89  
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
The alternative to a defeatist attitude is to manage behavior to limit the spread until, hopefully, a vaccine is available. In our province of 5 million, for example, it would take another 500 yrs before 100% of our population was infected. Clearly some locations have done a better job of managing behavior than others but even in locations with high levels a month or two back they've managed to dramatically reduce the rate of infection. There is a reasonable likelihood a vaccine will available in the 12-24 month timeframe. Even if the vaccine is not 100% effective we can still achieve herd immunity through a combination of behavior changes and vaccines.
Realist = defeatist and we are going gain herd immunity without having had it, or without an effective vaccine?

You need a cup of coffee.
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Old 07-05-20, 04:30 PM
  #90  
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Originally Posted by Juan Foote View Post
IDK, I suppose the juxtaposition in this is that there are people with a twisted enough process to see the positive in this running it's course in a natural way while we continue with life and business as normally as we can, given the circumstance. The world economy and it's future debt holders are being served and untenable bill.
...from an economic standpoint, you are making certain assumptions on this that will only play out in the third world.
Here in the first world USA, where I live, the economics of "running its course" translate to a very large bill indeed.

That's pretty much what those links I posted earlier concluded.

And lest you mistake me, I don't see any outcomes where the third world nations don't experience full blown economic disaster, at least in the shorter term. What irritates me is that we, like so many other first world nations, had options that disappeared under the burden of inaction and ignorance. Now, those options are still available, but more limited in scope. This is what happens in government by chaos.

The correct conclusion is not that "what does not kill us makes us stronger."
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Old 07-05-20, 04:41 PM
  #91  
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Originally Posted by Juan Foote View Post
Realist = defeatist and we are going gain herd immunity without having had it, or without an effective vaccine?

...even if individual immunity is possible in enough survivors to establish some degree of herd immunity, it's way too early in the process to assume that it is either possible, or achievable in a country where there will continue to be a significant reservoir of the disease, courtesy off people who will refuse vaccination. The Black Death in Europe came in so many waves that it's difficult to judge the significance of the effects on societal development. But certainly the so called "Dark Ages" are seen by many historians as one of its results.

I'm sorry , but you continue to make assumptions based on imagination, rather than historical example. Certainly if you are one of the world's remaining whales, this disease is probably a good thing. Maybe it's the pangolin's revenge. But speaking from the human perspective, i have trouble with the brighter side. I even started a thread on this. It went nowhere fast.
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Old 07-05-20, 04:54 PM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...even if individual immunity is possible in enough survivors to establish some degree of herd immunity, it's way too early in the process to assume that it is either possible, or achievable in a country where there will continue to be a significant reservoir of the disease, courtesy off people who will refuse vaccination. The Black Death in Europe came in so many waves that it's difficult to judge the significance of the effects on societal development. But certainly the so called "Dark Ages" are seen by many historians as one of its results.

I'm sorry , but you continue to make assumptions based on imagination, rather than historical example. Certainly if you are one of the world's remaining whales, this disease is probably a good thing. Maybe it's the pangolin's revenge. But speaking from the human perspective, i have trouble with the brighter side. I even started a thread on this. It went nowhere fast.

I don't think you can claim I am making assumptions based on imagination where you are going comparing this to the Black Plague. This is nothing in comparison to that. Not apples to apples.

At the end of this I think we are going to see the biggest blow having come from the economic slowdown, even in the US, not to mention worldwide. The loss of people is still trivial in comparison to automotive accidents. 3700 people a day in the US alone, compared to less than 5k globally. No one is shutting down the economy over the car death pandemic. It is because we understand it more clearly? Have come to terms with it? Accept it?
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Old 07-05-20, 05:01 PM
  #93  
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Originally Posted by Juan Foote View Post
I don't think you can claim I am making assumptions based on imagination where you are going comparing this to the Black Plague. This is nothing in comparison to that. Not apples to apples.
...my point, which you have missed, is that this is a new and unique virus. Any longer term immunity in survivors is up for grabs at this point, thus the comparison to the waves of Black Death, which ravaged Europe for over 50 years at the close of the 14th Century. Your assumption is that once everyone has had this, everything will be fine. Thus far you cannot make that assumption.

Originally Posted by Juan Foote View Post
At the end of this I think we are going to see the biggest blow having come from the economic slowdown, even in the US, not to mention worldwide. The loss of people is still trivial in comparison to automotive accidents. 3700 people a day in the US alone, compared to less than 5k globally. No one is shutting down the economy over the car death pandemic. It is because we understand it more clearly? Have come to terms with it? Accept it?
...OK, I'm out. Once someone starts making the "deaths from car accidents" argument, I know it's time to leave.
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Old 07-05-20, 05:55 PM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by Juan Foote View Post
I don't think you can claim I am making assumptions based on imagination where you are going comparing this to the Black Plague. This is nothing in comparison to that. Not apples to apples.

At the end of this I think we are going to see the biggest blow having come from the economic slowdown, even in the US, not to mention worldwide. The loss of people is still trivial in comparison to automotive accidents. 3700 people a day in the US alone, compared to less than 5k globally. No one is shutting down the economy over the car death pandemic. It is because we understand it more clearly? Have come to terms with it? Accept it?
A wholly bogus argument with totally false stats. Traffic fatalities in the US are about 35,000/year or about 100 a day.
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality...es%20traveled.
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Old 07-05-20, 05:57 PM
  #95  
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Originally Posted by Juan Foote View Post
I would like to address this individually though.

Humans, and the animals/plants that we meddle with are interfering with natural selection.
Normally speaking, if you are sick, weak, genetically disadvantaged, handicapped mentally or physically....you would either be predated upon, or unable to find a mate to thus pass on your particular weakness or defect. We have created a situation by which those factors are no longer a determiner for our survival and as a whole are creating a weaker race over time due to it. We are counting on creating cures and treatments as the God of our own existence rather than counting on the process by which we all got to this point. Our compassion will likely end up being what kills us, if not our complacency about other pressing issues.
'survival of the fittest' is often portrayed with the idea that this will strengthen the species, but that is not always the case. fittest only means those who pass on their genes the most.
is should be called 'survival of the reproducers'
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Old 07-05-20, 06:12 PM
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A lot of opinions being expressed here are to the effect that the virus is unstoppable and that therefore it's going to just burn it's way through human fuel indefinitely until a vaccine is found and effectively distributed. This is complete bs. Many developed nations are keeping and will continue to keep the infection rate to a very low level through public health measures that are increasingly including effective contact tracing. WE can't contain it in the US for political and social reasons, but it can be contained. Other developed nations will ccontinue to have small outbreaks and because they are able, will quickly stamp them out. We are just going to let the forst fire burn until it runs out of trees.
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Old 07-05-20, 06:13 PM
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Hondo Gravel
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Until this happens. We are heading in this direction...

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Old 07-05-20, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan View Post
A lot of opinions being expressed here are to the effect that the virus is unstoppable and that therefore it's going to just burn it's way through human fuel indefinitely until a vaccine is found and effectively distributed. This is complete bs. Many developed nations are keeping and will continue to keep the infection rate to a very low level through public health measures that are increasingly including effective contact tracing. WE can't contain it in the US for political and social reasons, but it can be contained. Other developed nations will ccontinue to have small outbreaks and because they are able, will quickly stamp them out. We are just going to let the forst fire burn until it runs out of trees.
>>> COVID may be controllable in small locales but there is no way it can be managed in a culturally diverse large geographic area and just imagine the dystopian chaos if a limited access "cure" is found BUT due to scarcity cannot be distributed except in VERY limited quantities
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Old 07-05-20, 06:42 PM
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Old 07-05-20, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
>>> COVID may be controllable in small locales but there is no way it can be managed in a culturally diverse large geographic area
It IS being managed in "culturally diverse large geographic" regions. Look around the world.

1. Countries such as France, Japan, China, Germany, Spain, Canada, Australia hardly qualify as "small locales".

2. But what exactly is your point about "culturally diverse"? I hope it is not a dog whistle. Do you mean having a large fraction of the population who won't abide by public health directives? And if you mean that, why is the U.S. so uniquely blessed with them such that other countries can do this well and we are completely unable?.

I could write more criticisms of your statement, but I'll try to keep the P&R out of this.
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