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When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

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When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

Old 07-04-20, 09:51 PM
  #101  
skookum
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Yes, Ebola is a very different virus.

The R nought is thought to be close to 2, so that suggests a herd immunity rate of about 50%. The CFR is about 50% so half of people infected will die.Brutal.
Recovered patients do have immunity.

I don 't know if there are asymptomatic individuals capable of transmitting the disease.

I'm not any kind of medical expert, just some dude on the internet.

Anybody have any relevant thoughts?
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Old 07-05-20, 09:12 AM
  #102  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
Good question. What are your thoughts? I honestly don't know. What do you think?
My thoughts are that the transient disappearances of ebola have absolutely nothing to do with herd immunity.
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Old 07-05-20, 06:40 PM
  #103  
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We already have. The fatality rates in much of the world are now at pre-COVID levels, despite the fact that cases continue to rise.
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Old 07-05-20, 09:00 PM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
My thoughts are that the transient disappearances of ebola have absolutely nothing to do with herd immunity.
Okay. Why does it burn out then?
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Old 07-05-20, 09:05 PM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
Okay. Why does it burn out then?
Very high mortality rate.

And public health teaches families and contacts about the proper way to care for the ill and dead.
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Old 07-05-20, 09:11 PM
  #106  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Very high mortality rate.

And public health teaches families and contacts about the proper way to care for the ill and dead.
Is herd immunity a concept that does not apply in the case of ebola? Serious question.
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Old 07-05-20, 09:25 PM
  #107  
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Herd immunity is rarely achieved in the absence of a really good and universally available vaccine. Measles is a good example, and we see what happens when the compliance level dips below a threshold.
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Old 07-05-20, 09:32 PM
  #108  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
Is herd immunity a concept that does not apply in the case of ebola? Serious question.
One might achieve it if one wished to kill off half the population.

Most governments look for other options.

Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Herd immunity is rarely achieved in the absence of a really good and universally available vaccine. Measles is a good example, and we see what happens when the compliance level dips below a threshold.
I'm not sure. To some extent, every year we reach "herd immunity" for the previous year's strain of influenza. But, of course, it mutates quickly enough that it isn't good enough for next year's strain.

Hard to say if we could have achieved universal immunity to Chicken Pox. Of course, there was always a new generation that would be susceptible. When did we realize that the old geezers getting shingles were lifelong carriers of the chicken pox virus?
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Old 07-06-20, 04:19 PM
  #109  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
...

Hard to say if we could have achieved universal immunity to Chicken Pox. Of course, there was always a new generation that would be susceptible. When did we realize that the old geezers getting shingles were lifelong carriers of the chicken pox virus?
For me, when I discovered a weird line of spots following a rib while I dressed in cycling gear to ride home froo work. Stopped at Medical on the way out. The nurse diagnosed it instantly, told me it was chicken pox that had been hanging out in my spinal column the past half century. Also to go to the doctor, get the medicine prescribed and take in in the next 24 hours. Wouldn't let me leave until I'd made the appointment.

Ben
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Old 07-06-20, 06:34 PM
  #110  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
To some extent, every year we reach "herd immunity" for the previous year's strain of influenza.
I don't think that is the case at all.

Which is why I think we are unlikely to get to herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 unless it kills off three hundred million people.
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Old 07-06-20, 07:14 PM
  #111  
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This just in from our correspondent in Spain:

Spain's coronavirus antibodies study adds evidence against herd immunity

Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus....

"The relatively low seroprevalence observed in the context of an intense epidemic in Spain might serve as a reference to other countries. At present, herd immunity is difficult to achieve without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening of health systems," the report reads....

Spain has been one of the countries in Europe hit hardest by the coronavirus, with more than 28,000 deaths and 250,000 cases.
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Old 07-06-20, 07:50 PM
  #112  
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
Spain has been one of the countries in Europe hit hardest by the coronavirus, with more than 28,000 deaths and 250,000 cases.

Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus....


Back to the 1% rule... 28,388 dead implies about 2.8 million infected out of about a 47 million population.

And that gives one about 6% of the population has been infected.

Very close to what the study has found.

And, yes, a long ways to get to say 30% to 50% infected, or more, with huge carnage.

Sweden is officially at 73,061 cases and 5,433 dead (or with 1%, one gets about 1/2 million cases). 10 million population, and they're also likely getting close to 5% infected.

One might note, however, that the infections won't be uniform across the nation. Just like a HUGE number in New York and New Jersey were infected in March/April/May, that is likely true in Italy, Spain, and elsewhere.
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Old 07-06-20, 08:08 PM
  #113  
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This is from early May (and probably an April study), so still quite a few more cases, but the infection rate was already falling in NY

New York releases preliminary coronavirus antibody test results



12.3% of NY State positive for COVID Antibodies.
19.9% of NYC positive for COVID Antibodies
27.6% of Bronx positive for COVID Antibodies.
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Old 07-06-20, 09:04 PM
  #114  
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

~ Mike Tyson
That is what is what is happening here right now. My characters Bubba and Bubbette got kicked in the mouth and now reality set in.
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Old 07-07-20, 06:09 PM
  #115  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
While nobody really wants to get sick, they may be better off allowing the disease to burn through the rest of the "healthy" population.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/b...gtype=Homepage
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Old 07-07-20, 06:46 PM
  #116  
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Again,

Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
We are unlikely to get to herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 unless it kills off three hundred million people world-wide.
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Old 07-12-20, 08:14 PM
  #117  
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Even that may be optimistic:

Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection


Preprint, but wife says these folks are outstanding.

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Old 07-12-20, 09:37 PM
  #118  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Even that may be optimistic:

Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection


Preprint, but wife says these folks are outstanding.

No way can I read that after doing a hard afternoon of climbing! Is there a plain English summary?
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Old 07-12-20, 10:07 PM
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Immunity may be transient, which if true means we could keep getting sick with COVID-19 every few months, and a good vaccine might be hard to produce.
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Old 07-13-20, 12:15 AM
  #120  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Again,

We are unlikely to get to herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 unless it kills off three hundred million people world-wide.
...there is this wonderful fire department maxim, that is usually trotted out just after the roof caves in and it looks like all you will save is the foundation. It's often said in a disgusted tone by one of the senior members present at the fire:

Originally Posted by Fire Marshall Bill
The fire always goes out.
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Old 07-13-20, 03:40 AM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by 50PlusCycling View Post
We already have. The fatality rates in much of the world are now at pre-COVID levels, despite the fact that cases continue to rise.
Ding Ding!

Winner winner chicken dinner!

You're far more likely to die with covid, then from it.





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Old 07-13-20, 03:58 AM
  #122  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
Ding Ding!

Winner winner chicken dinner!

You're far more likely to die with covid, then from it.





You still being an Egyptian?
When you are dead, you are... dead.
And a lot of extra people are dead. I know facts are difficult to weave into your narrative, but here they are in graphical form: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm
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Old 07-13-20, 04:30 AM
  #123  
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I'm not dead yet, it would appear that many are officially brain dead. (especially if you consider the CDC data to be the whole truth and nothing but the truth)


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Old 07-13-20, 04:39 AM
  #124  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
I'm not dead yet, it would appear that many are officially brain dead. (especially if you consider the CDC data to be the whole truth and nothing but the truth)


Full aquatic Egyptian.
So how do you calculate excess deaths?, Do you have a direct line to crematorium gas suppliers?. Some kind of mysterious calculation involving a secret formula and plywood manufacturers enabling a rough estimate of coffin numbers?
Ah, that's right. It's all a hoax, there are no excess deaths. New York hospitals just wanted those cooler trucks to store all the extra beer they bought with the money they conned out of the gullible public. Pretty smart to wrap it up in body shaped packages so nobody would suspect. And nobody could see the party clothes under those coveralls.
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Old 07-13-20, 06:44 AM
  #125  
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.
Originally Posted by idiocratic bible : Revelations 2
...and the memes shall inherit the earth.
...
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