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Death rate in the USA

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Death rate in the USA

Old 07-06-20, 11:06 AM
  #26  
vespasianus
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Originally Posted by jet sanchEz View Post
Deaths lag cases by about 2 weeks so expect to see some very bad numbers soon

And, related, Florida just hit 200K cases.

It took 114 days for Florida to reach it's first 100K cases

It took 13 days to reach it's next 100K cases

That is very bad
Right now, deaths are lagging about 3 weeks post diagnosis, and this recent spike in cases should result in 1000-4000 deaths per day in about 2-3 weeks. This virus (I am a virologist) is odd in some ways. Other coronaviruses tend to disappear (not really but their incidence drops really low) in the summer months. Not this. Most zoonotic viruses also tend to attenuate in time as they travel through people. Not this. Most coronaviruses will infect 100% of people given the opportunity. Maybe not this? Most coronaviruses tend to increase in incidence 10-100X in the fall/winter months as people come together indoors and become more susceptible to mucosal viruses. Hopefully not this!
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Old 07-06-20, 11:37 AM
  #27  
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Fenriz and Nocturnal Culto knew this was going to happen.
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Old 07-06-20, 12:30 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by vespasianus View Post
Right now, deaths are lagging about 3 weeks post diagnosis, and this recent spike in cases should result in 1000-4000 deaths per day in about 2-3 weeks. This virus (I am a virologist) is odd in some ways. Other coronaviruses tend to disappear (not really but their incidence drops really low) in the summer months. Not this. Most zoonotic viruses also tend to attenuate in time as they travel through people. Not this. Most coronaviruses will infect 100% of people given the opportunity. Maybe not this? Most coronaviruses tend to increase in incidence 10-100X in the fall/winter months as people come together indoors and become more susceptible to mucosal viruses. Hopefully not this!
I am surprised at how efficiently this virus seems to be continuing to spread during the summer months. Although, I have wondered if the problems in the southern USA have to do with the use of Air Conditioning, with everyone huddling inside during the summer in the south like people would do in the winter in the north.

I do expect some resurgence in the fall that will be difficult to control, especially if we resume somewhat normal school routines.

One thing to note is that there seems to be essentially zero immunity to COVID 19. So, pick up enough virus particles, and you get the disease.

On the other hand, there would be moderate immunity to influenza, rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, and other coronaviruses in our population. That would reduce the ability of the virus to transmit in sub-optimal conditions. Whereas more people susceptible, and perhaps requiring fewer viral particles to infect, and it is easier for COVID to spread in adverse conditions.

I'm also coming to the conclusion that COVID is also spreading in aerosols and smaller droplet sizes than we were initially led to believe. One thinks of a disease spreading through a cough, but asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread seems to indicate it is spreading through simply breathing, speaking, and singing, and likely with very small droplet sizes.
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Old 07-06-20, 01:08 PM
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I’m in the AC until this evening but I’m isolated. Makes sense people concentrated in AC buildings with poor ventilation. I have taken to riding my bike at night then I’m outside until 2-3 am. Luckily I can accommodate a schedule like that. After the initial scare people here were doing the recommended things to keep this virus from going crazy. Then it became lalakalalalalala and I was thinking that isn’t going to turn out well. Now Texas is one of the epicenters thanks Bubba and Bubbette you showed the infectious disease experts how smart you are. My cats and dogs and all the outside creatures like deer and all the other animals sleep or get in the shade during 100+ and then come out at night. Only the humans will bake in the direct sunlight.
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Old 07-06-20, 01:57 PM
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One thing that A/C does is dries out the air, which results in reducing the ability of your nasal passages to protect you due to the membranes drying out. Costa Rica doesn't use much A/C - and we get a lot of sun
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Old 07-06-20, 04:08 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
Originally Posted by jet sanchEz View Post
Deaths lag cases by about 2 weeks so expect to see some very bad numbers soon

And, related, Florida just hit 200K cases.

It took 114 days for Florida to reach it's first 100K cases

It took 13 days to reach it's next 100K cases

That is very bad
In before anyone claims more testing causes more cases. Florida is actually testing less during this increase than they were a month ago.
There is likely an element that the cold and flu has masked cases. So, this time of year, anybody that is still sick gets tested, so it may throw around testing ratios a bit.

Using the 1% death rate, the USA has probably had around 13 Million cases of COVID, with only about 3 million being reported.

Florida isn't bad with potentially close to 400,000 cases, and 200,000 reported. We are seeing deaths slowly climbing in Florida and Texas, so it may be putting us back to the undocumented case levels back in April and May.

Overall, the US deaths are way down, but that is likely due to changes in New York and New Jersey and a few other hard hit states.

With about 1000 deaths a day in April, New York State was likely experiencing close to 100,000 new cases a day. At that time, New York was contributing to about half of the daily deaths in the USA, and represents more daily deaths than the whole country has today.

Mortality rate in Texas and Florida is slowly creeping back up to baseline April/May, so there may well be a huge testing bias. Nonetheless, it is a disturbing trend with no end in sight, and fortells a rough future.
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Old 07-06-20, 05:17 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
The true case mortality rate for this disease is difficult to pin down. Like you said, it involves ages of the people. Nursing Homes? Health, etc. A good estimate seems to be around 1% of the cases are fatal.
Did you mean 10%? In CA it seems to be more than 25% fatality for the 80+ demographic.
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Old 07-06-20, 06:06 PM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Did you mean 10%? In CA it seems to be more than 25% fatality for the 80+ demographic.
The death rate is difficult to pin down.

Places that have done the most testing seem to get a mortality rate close to 1%. It would be worthwhile to look at the USA mortality in June/July as testing became more widespread, although increasing infection numbers also toss that around until they level off some.

Yes, mortality rate is bad for the elderly, but there are also fewer of them around, either because many have already kicked the bucket, or through population growth.



It seems as if around here, many of the elderly outside of nursing homes are going to great efforts to avoid the illness.

The younger generation may well be significantly under counted.

The USA has had an issue of nursing homes, and in particular hospitals which discharged sick patients into nursing homes. New York and New Jersey, of course, had the entire medical system stressed to the max, but still, they made some stupid choices of infecting nursing homes.

Locally, we've had several nursing homes that have managed to keep infections limited, but also some that failed miserably.
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Old 07-06-20, 06:13 PM
  #34  
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The first problem in pinning down the rate of death is having accurate information about the number of deaths. Deaths in Florida may be twice the reported number.
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Old 07-06-20, 06:15 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
The death rate is difficult to pin down.

Places that have done the most testing seem to get a mortality rate close to 1%. It would be worthwhile to look at the USA mortality in June/July as testing became more widespread, although increasing infection numbers also toss that around until they level off some.
Especially if it is considered as just 1 rate for the whole population, since it is so different for different ages

Yes, mortality rate is bad for the elderly, but there are also fewer of them around, either because many have already kicked the bucket, or through population growth.
in CA 80+ is like 7% of the cases (a small number which would be explained by 'fewer of them around'), but that 7% of the cases accounts for 45% of the deaths, which means the death rate for the elderly is astronomical, probably close to 30%. Conversely, 18-34 has like 27% of the cases (and is probably significantly undercounted, as you note), but just 4% of the deaths, for a tiny mortality rate (0.16% based on those numbers, but somewhat lower due to case undercounting)
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Old 07-06-20, 07:12 PM
  #36  
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Maricopa County, AZ has a new dashboard. Looks like the LTCF are a smaller percentage of deaths now.
https://phdata.maricopa.gov/Dashboar...se&vo=viewonly


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Old 07-07-20, 03:45 AM
  #37  
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CR death rate had climbed to 5.0 per million so whoever pointed out the dilution due to new casas was right. But new cases are starting to drop even though testing is continuing. People are using masks and self isolating if their is any doubt.
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