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Corona and Cavalier Behavior

Old 03-30-20, 07:44 AM
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berner
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Corona and Cavalier Behavior

I've been noticing the last week or so that many people don't take the corona virus pandemic very seriously. This is obvious when seeing two people chatting in fairly close proximity. One infected person can infect a number of others so that the rate of infection is exponential. This leads me to conclude that the situation, which includes employment, public services such s police and health, as well as banking, and more ordinary services such as vehicle repair, is going to get much worst before it gets better. The question that arises for me is how far to take precautions to minimize my likelihood of infecting others and minimizing my own chances of being infected. I would imaging that at this moment there are seriously ill people facing possible death who are asking themselves what they could have done differently. I would say that the time for that question is before becoming infected.

I've been practicing social distancing but it does not seem possible to avoid the human race completely. The dilemma is how far to go with precautions. I wash my hands obsesively but also wash car keys. I bought a bunch of grapes today and though they were in a plastic bag, I did not merely rinse but washed them in soap and water. We can influence the odds of infection so in the near future I'll be reviewing my behavior and precautions.

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Old 03-30-20, 08:20 AM
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Consider wearing a 😷 mask. But leave the N95 masks for the professionals who need the maximum protection. https://apple.news/AD4MTqbuvTAeiWSccI0HjZg

Despite its population density, Japan’s rise in the number of Covid cases has been slow. I suspect this is partially due to the frequency of mask use in that country.
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Old 03-30-20, 08:31 AM
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True story - I live near a cemetery where I go for walks to get some exercise. I ran into the guy who manages the grounds and we talked (at a distance of about 15 feet) about current events. We are under a stay-at-home order and to minimize person-to-person contact. He described a funeral from a few days earlier in which more than 20 people came to the graveside and at the end, all of them began hugging each other. The funeral director got hugged once, but looked like she was going to throw up when it occurred. The cemetery manager was present, at a distance as usual, and one mourner was heading towards him to give him a hug. He declined, backing away, but had the thought that he'll be seeing some of these folks again real soon.
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Old 03-30-20, 09:33 AM
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Originally Posted by berner View Post
I've been noticing the last week or so that many people don't take the corona virus pandemic very seriously. This is obvious when seeing two people chatting in fairly close proximity. One infected person can infect a number of others so that the rate of infection is exponential. This leads me to conclude that the situation, which includes employment, public services such s police and health, as well as banking, and more ordinary services such as vehicle repair, is going to get much worst before it gets better. The question that arises for me is how far to take precautions to minimize my likelihood of infecting others and minimizing my own chances of being infected. I would imaging that at this moment there are seriously ill people facing possible death who are asking themselves what they could have done differently. I would say that the time for that question is before becoming infected.

I've been practicing social distancing but it does not seem possible to avoid the human race completely. The dilemma is how far to go with precautions. I wash my hands obsively but also wash car keys. I bought a bunch of grapes today and though they were in a plastic bag, I did not merely rinse but washed them in soap and water. We can influence the odds of infection so in the near future I'll be reviewing my behavior and precautions.
I am actually seeing substantial compliance. In my hood, people are maintaining safe distances for the most part. Remember too that some of those people who are close together are may be part of the same household. At least, they know each other and know that the other person is unlikely to be a carrier.

It is important to remember that the symptomatic infections and deaths we are seeing now are the result of exposures that happened a couple of weeks or more ago, when utter strangers were congregating in restaurants and bars. Those cases will continue for the next couple of weeks or so, and the social distancing will see cases drop off. I guess what I am saying is that staying 10M away from people now is not going to make up for being within 1 foot of them in a crowded restaurant two weeks ago.
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Old 03-30-20, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
I guess what I am saying is that staying 10M away from people now is not going to make up for being within 1 foot of them in a crowded restaurant two weeks ago.
Well, if you think about it in terms of exponential spreading, it can do more to save lives now.
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Old 03-30-20, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Well, if you think about it in terms of exponential spreading, it can do more to save lives now.
Not unless there is evidence to support that claim.
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Old 03-30-20, 09:55 AM
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we had a family gathering 15-20 ppl for my Mom's 90th B-day 3/7/20. so far so good (no one sick). I thought we should have canceled it, but no one was on board with that. if it were now, we'd have no trouble canceling it!
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Old 03-30-20, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by rumrunn6 View Post
we had a family gathering 15-20 ppl for my Mom's 90th B-day 3/7/20. so far so good (no one sick). I thought we should have canceled it, but no one was on board with that. if it were now, we'd have no trouble canceling it!
Similar stuff with me. It's hard to get up the nerve to even suggest cancelling an event like that, because everyone would have thought you crazy to do so.
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Old 03-30-20, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Not unless there is evidence to support that claim.
The claim that the virus spreads exponentially? I present .... the world:

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

(I'm hoping we are just misunderstanding one another.)
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Old 03-30-20, 10:24 AM
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We went for a drive yesterday, to see how crowded the local, concrete, MUP (the Louisville Loop). Lots of people, dog walkers, and bicyclists on it. It isn't of any great width, and people had to pass close to each other as they passed. Definitely too many walkers and walkers with dogs on it for cyclists to also be on it (at least the park we drove thru-there are several). Some cyclists took to the road (was the best option), but still saw many on the paved path. The local news showed a gathering of people watching cars and motorcycles street racing. Also of groups playing basketball, as well as golfers who were not practicing social distancing. Guess some won't take the warnings seriously until they get sick or find out they have infected someone--damn shame!
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Old 03-30-20, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
The claim that the virus spreads exponentially? I present .... the world:

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

(I'm hoping we are just misunderstanding one another.)
This was my statement.

"I guess what I am saying is that staying 10M away from people now is not going to make up for being within 1 foot of them in a crowded restaurant two weeks ago."

In other words, over-reaction today does not make up for an under reaction two weeks ago. Kind of like making up for running out of gas last week by overfilling the gas tank today. All of the social distancing measures have their cost and consequences too, and if they're to be employed, it should be supported by science and the numbers with the effectiveness balanced by the social cost.
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Old 03-30-20, 10:27 AM
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Yep.... my normal trail to ride is now crowded. And of course there are people doing stupid things. Probably most caught in a moment of not thinking. Which happens to me too.

But I really can't get over the group of thee people stopped in the middle of the trail with about five dogs total and one kneeling down letting the another's dog put it's paws all over them and lick their face.

Maybe they are relying on earlier info that said pets didn't get affected. But that doesn't tell me they can't pass it.
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Old 03-30-20, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
This was my statement.

"I guess what I am saying is that staying 10M away from people now is not going to make up for being within 1 foot of them in a crowded restaurant two weeks ago."

In other words, over-reaction today does not make up for an under reaction two weeks ago. Kind of like making up for running out of gas last week by overfilling the gas tank today. All of the social distancing measures have their cost and consequences too, and if they're to be employed, it should be supported by science and the numbers with the effectiveness balanced by the social cost.
It won't make up for it, but the virus will only stop spreading exponentially when the average ratio of transmission drops to 1:1 or lower, which means strict social isolation to compensate for all of the high ratio of transmission contacts in ICUs, ERs, etc. that cannot be avoided. Birx is now saying 100,000 deaths in the United States is a best-case scenario.
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Old 03-30-20, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
It won't make up for it, but the virus will only stop spreading exponentially when the average ratio of transmission drops to 1:1 or lower, which means strict social isolation to compensate for all of the high ratio of transmission contacts in ICUs, ERs, etc. that cannot be avoided. Birx is now saying 100,000 deaths in the United States is a best-case scenario.
"It won't make up for it, but the virus will only stop spreading exponentially when the average ratio of transmission drops to 1:1 or lower." No argument there.

"strict social isolation to compensate for all of the high ratio of transmission contacts in ICUs, ERs, etc. that cannot be avoided" It depends on what you mean by "strict." Again, what is required should be based on the numbers. Yes, we want an Ro less than one.

"Birx is now saying 100,000 deaths in the United States is a best-case scenario." Yes, that is a lot and it is horrible. But putting it into context, 2,800,000 Americans lost their lives in 2017.

We are going to live or die by following the numbers ... what the epidemiologists tell us to do based upon the best scientific knowledge we have.

Here is an early epidemiological study of the virus in Wuhan. A very interesting read about what the Ro was in the beginning, at the end, and how many were infected. It concludes that the IFR is 0.12% ... something closer to that of an ordinary flu. When it is all said and done, we may well find out that the antigen is far more contagious than thought, but far less deadly.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....12.20022434v2

All I am saying is that we should do what makes sense and what is supported by science ... no more and no less.
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Old 03-30-20, 10:51 AM
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The fact is coronavirus is only infectious for two weeks, give or take. Thus, if everyone who could (not first responders, for example) practiced social distancing for two weeks, the matter would be largely resolved. In practice, though, a large percentage of Americans either don't believe what's being said or don't care. As a result, we'll be hunkered down for months instead of weeks.
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Old 03-30-20, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
The fact is coronavirus is only infectious for two weeks, give or take.
I'm worrying about this assumption. It certainly isn't an established "fact." One of the problems is that viral shedding peaks at 14 days, in the case of SARS-CoV-1 (which is probably a good approximation).

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...3604162557.pdf

Then there is this:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive
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Old 03-30-20, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
"It won't make up for it, but the virus will only stop spreading exponentially when the average ratio of transmission drops to 1:1 or lower." No argument there.

"strict social isolation to compensate for all of the high ratio of transmission contacts in ICUs, ERs, etc. that cannot be avoided" It depends on what you mean by "strict." Again, what is required should be based on the numbers. Yes, we want an Ro less than one.

"Birx is now saying 100,000 deaths in the United States is a best-case scenario." Yes, that is a lot and it is horrible. But putting it into context, 2,800,000 Americans lost their lives in 2017.

We are going to live or die by following the numbers ... what the epidemiologists tell us to do based upon the best scientific knowledge we have.

Here is an early epidemiological study of the virus in Wuhan. A very interesting read about what the Ro was in the beginning, at the end, and how many were infected. It concludes that the IFR is 0.12% ... something closer to that of an ordinary flu. When it is all said and done, we may well find out that the antigen is far more contagious than thought, but far less deadly.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....12.20022434v2

All I am saying is that we should do what makes sense and what is supported by science ... no more and no less.
One of the problems is how the caseload is counted. According to the NPR article I just posted above, the Chinese don't include asymptomatic positive tests in their statistics.
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Old 03-30-20, 11:16 AM
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I've concluded that there is a direct relationship between the distance people maintain from each other and their intelligence.
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Old 03-30-20, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
One of the problems is how the caseload is counted. According to the NPR article I just posted above, the Chinese don't include asymptomatic positive tests in their statistics.
Yep. And a lot of symptomatic people are not tested. And there are a lot of people with COVID who were asymptomatic, were never tested, and recovered. Lots of unknowns at this point, including how reliable the tests were with both false positives and false negatives.
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Old 03-30-20, 11:28 AM
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The death toll is one statistic that is rather robust.
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Old 03-30-20, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
I'm worrying about this assumption. It certainly isn't an established "fact." One of the problems is that viral shedding peaks at 14 days, in the case of SARS-CoV-1 (which is probably a good approximation).

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...3604162557.pdf

Then there is this:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive
Sorry, wgscott. I agree with you that I took some liberties and my exact statement was faulty and off the mark although my point was still correct, so I'll be precise. It is accepted (based on MERS-CoV viruses) that COVID-19 symptoms occur within 14 days or less. Thus, if everyone followed 14 days of social distancing and those who were sick self quarantined, this would be over in short order. The problem is that a substantial portion of us are choosing not to do so.
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Old 03-30-20, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
The death toll is one statistic that is rather robust.
Robust but also should be put into context as well. As I mentioned, although they are currently predicting 81,000 COVID related deaths by July in the US, we typically lose almost 3M a year from other causes. And some of those that are dying would likely have died of other causes this year or the next anyway. When the dust settles, I think they may well measure the impact of the disease by reduction in life expectancy by those affected.
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Old 03-30-20, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
"Birx is now saying 100,000 deaths in the United States is a best-case scenario." Yes, that is a lot and it is horrible. But putting it into context, 2,800,000 Americans lost their lives in 2017..
Put in a different context, the Viet Nam War lasted around 20 years and killed 55,000 Americans. That was enough that virtually everybody I've talked with has a friend or relative who was a casualty. 100,000 would be a tragic number.
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Old 03-30-20, 01:11 PM
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Iím right in NYC and itís crazy to think that just 3 weeks ago, we were all on top of each other jammed into the subway, elevators, and our offices.

The toll here is huge but, whatís odd is that anecdotally, of the many dozens or hundreds of people I know, no one has covid and only 2 have said that they even know someone who has it. And I have been asking grocery store owners etc as well.

Now, itís very possible that I (and many of us) had it already and never even knew. I donít recall any symptoms or even feeling ďoffĒ but who knows.

People I see in Brooklyn, where I live, are very seriousl about distancing. I live near the very popular Prospect Park bike loop and itís been very busy. Iíll see people riding in pairs and sometimes see some people in small groups but they seem to be keeping their distance.

Hoping that the past 2 weeks and next 2 we will see the worst of it. Bracing for what that will look like but hoping for the best.

Meantime, keeping distance and washing my hands and everything else. I even wash my daily apple with dish soap before I eat it!

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Old 03-30-20, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Robust but also should be put into context as well. As I mentioned, although they are currently predicting 81,000 COVID related deaths by July in the US, we typically lose almost 3M a year from other causes. And some of those that are dying would likely have died of other causes this year or the next anyway. When the dust settles, I think they may well measure the impact of the disease by reduction in life expectancy by those affected.
When the dust settles, 1 out of 50 cyclists who become ill may die from coronavirus. But, as you said,

And some of those that are dying would likely have died of other causes this year or the next anyway.

Last edited by Tony P.; 03-30-20 at 02:46 PM.
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