Captain_Canada

TL/DR: want new bike, don't want to miss a big change like new gearing

I bought my 10 speed bike right before everything switched to 11 speed (2014, 105 components). I'd be bummed if I missed it by a year again. Is 12 speed shimano right around the corner? I've been noticing that high end bikes seem to be spec'd with SRAM-tinfoil hat says thoughts make me think that bike manufacturers don't want to be stuck with outdated inventory when 12 speed shimano drops.

I'm looking to buy my first really nice bike (my current bike is great, a well maintained aluminum framed 105 bike from 2014-but didn't break the wallet). I like to keep my things for a long time and take care of them.

Thanks!

noodle soup

Yes.

WhyFi

Probably, but it would likely be DA Di2 first and then trickle down later. Are you in the market for the tippy-top groupset? If not, you're probably a couple years away from seeing it in more affordable groups.

noodle soup

+1

I suspect we'll see some photos of it on some bikes during the Grand Tours(if they happen), and it will be released in the Spring of 2021.

I'd bet it's Dura-Ace Di2(no mechanical offered) and disc brake only.

GrainBrain

I want an 11-34 12 speed so bad. Want that 14t cog. Want.

BluFalconActual

Any guesses on the gearing strategy? Something more traditional like Campy or something different like SRAM?

WhyFi

Hoo, boy - that would get some folks heated. I wouldn't put it past 'em, but I don't know if Shimano's ready to make that stand just yet.

noodle soup

11-34 in central Iowa. Why?

Are you riding 1x with a 50t chainring?

noodle soup

Oh yeah. I hope that's how they do it.

GrainBrain

Gravel, windy gravel - and a gearing fetish.

Racing Dan

Im betting they will use the micro spline free hub and a 10t small cog on all the 12s road cassettes. Then they need smaller chain rings to not waste the additional gear. Btw, im still on 10s and see no benefit moving to 11s, Not from a strictly gearing perspective at least. My 10s 12-28 cassette is exactly the same a 11s 11-28, sans the 11t that I dont need anyway. And much cheaper too.

Cant imagine it will take long for shimano to move to 12s road. Even budget Deore, mtb, is now available in 12s. Next gen DA, Ultegra and 105 will be 12s, im sure.

blazin

It seems like everyone expects Shimano to announce a 12 speed DA system soon. I recall reading a rumor somewhere that it would be partially wireless as well (witless shifters with FD and RD still wired to battery?), but can’t find it now.

The better question is how long between the announcement and when you can actually get it. I remember when the current generation DA was announced (2017?), it took something like 6 months for me to get ahold of a bike equipped with it. There is some speculation that Shimano’s original plan might have been to announce this summer, but due to corona and related manufacturing delays they will wait till next year.

Ilbiker

If you really want/need 12s then wait until it eventually comes out and at the group level and on the bike you’re wanting. Honestly, this didn’t factor into my new purchase. I was ready to buy now and ride now. So, 11s it is. If 12s was on the bike, then 12s it would have been. When 12s comes out, it’s not like 11s all of a sudden becomes irrelevant. You’ve seen this with your 10s group.

datlas 

Very likely. Probably Dura-Ace coming out next year, then Ultegra in 2022 and 105 in 2023.

A related question. Wireless Di2? Probably not but it's possible. Anyone know??

sced

Just get Campagnolo 12 - very affordable in Chorus. If you are an informed, careful shopper you can put together a great bike for less than buying from a shop.

AdkMtnMonster

Wireless is a bad idea when the Italian riders hack into your BikeLAN and drop you into the 52/10 in the middle of the climb.

ljsense

"Everybody cheats. I just didn't know." -- Dave Stoller

Fox Farm

Campy Chorus 12

guadzilla

Weird- was my post on 12 speed deleted?

guadzilla

Had posted this earlier but cant find that post anywhere - but reading between the lines of what a fairly reliable source hinted to me, the new Di2 is going to be atleast partially wireless My conjecture is that FD and RD are connected by a battery. Shifters are wireless.

Same source also said not to expect anything till 2021 at the earliest, and that appears to be coming true, so i suspect that at the very least, the new Di2 is going to be different from the current one in terms of system architecture.

WhyFi

The forum software knows who the trouble-makers are.

datlas 

Thanks. I hope that might be true. I have an older groupset on my Ti frame and it’s not set up for internal cables. I know Di2 can be run externally but it’s fugly. So my plan is to either stick with cable shifting or find a wireless option. Etap is on the list but quite pricey.

Sy Reene

Bets on whether any 11s wheels will continue to work when it does come out?

AdkMtnMonster

Ill take that bet. $599. My 11speed wheels will continue to work just fine.

ridethecliche

I only moved to 11 speed because I sold my DA7800 equipped caad9 and bought a used bike that was Shimano 105 5800. I had a frame I wanted to build up so that frame is currently getting the 5800 and my main frame is getting new Shimano 105 R7000.

Don't see any reason to not stick with this setup for the next few years even if something else new comes out.