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COVID-19 in 2021?

Old 07-10-20, 05:37 PM
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COVID-19 in 2021?

All concerts rescheduled to 2021 I opted to keep the tickets. Iím just wondering if this nasty virus will be under control or at least minimized by Summer/Fall 2021. Everything has shifted to 2021 but I wonder if I should be looking at 2022. Take about devolution....
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Old 07-10-20, 05:42 PM
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This is only getting started.
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Old 07-10-20, 05:46 PM
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We have lost contrrol and the genie isn't going back in the bottle unless there is a vaccine or unless there is a nationwide effort to go back to quarantines and/or total mask compliance. As the latter does not seem to be on the table, it's going to be about the vaccine.
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Old 07-10-20, 05:49 PM
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Yup, it looks that way. But I really don’t know. I can only read and try to make my own analysis. Good thing I can ride my bike in the boonies or I would go insane. At some point I won’t give a F if I catch it or not. Hopefully I will never reach that point. I guess we will see what happens.
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Old 07-10-20, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
All concerts rescheduled to 2021 I opted to keep the tickets. Iím just wondering if this nasty virus will be under control or at least minimized by Summer/Fall 2021. Everything has shifted to 2021 but I wonder if I should be looking at 2022. Take about devolution....
Not "everything". Beachboys are still touring:
https://www.thebeachboys.com/tour

Chicago Live in Concert is sill doing some venues:
https://www.livenation.com/artist/K8...chicago-events

But those are sheer madness and stupidity. TBH.
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Old 07-10-20, 06:13 PM
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Smothered in an arena with thousands of people doesn’t sound appealing right now.
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Old 07-10-20, 06:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti View Post
Not "everything". Beachboys are still touring:
https://www.thebeachboys.com/tour

Chicago Live in Concert is sill doing some venues:
https://www.livenation.com/artist/K8...chicago-events

But those are sheer madness and stupidity. TBH.
But they have very young fans who aren't that susceptible....

oh, wait...
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Old 07-10-20, 06:24 PM
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I don't see myself going to a concert like event until a proven vaccine or instant accurate testing at the door. Maybe by late 2021.
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Old 07-10-20, 06:37 PM
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I think there is a good chance we will have a vaccine by Christmas of this year, and we'll see cases start dropping. But, if not out by spring, it may be delayed until next fall.

Some communities like New York/New Jersey may be able to get the virus under control, in part because of the huge percentage of the population that have already been infected. Other states like Texas, Florida, and California may well get to a level of "herd immunity" by next summer if there is no vaccine.

And there will be an overall benefit to neighboring states if those that have that have the virus out of control now eventually get it under control, and less chanceof exporting cases.

Still, as others have said, if we don't get a vaccine, we'll be in this for quite some time. Summer 2022?
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Old 07-10-20, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post

Some communities like New York/New Jersey may be able to get the virus under control, in part because of the huge percentage of the population that have already been infected. Other states like Texas, Florida, and California may well get to a level of "herd immunity" by next summer if there is no vaccine.
Very speculative. We don't know where herd immunity is (70%?) and we don't really know how many people have immunity or how long it lasts. And it will be hard to inhibit interstate travel.

People overvalue herd immunity. It basically means that if most everybody has had it, we aren't much at risk, assuming they don't get it again. It's akin to moving on with life after full apocalypse.
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Old 07-10-20, 06:43 PM
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I don’t want to be out the cash if these rescheduled concerts in 2021 go on even with significant risk. So opting not to get a refund is taking a chance. There is always resale....
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Old 07-10-20, 07:30 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan View Post
Very speculative. We don't know where herd immunity is (70%?) and we don't really know how many people have immunity or how long it lasts. And it will be hard to inhibit interstate travel.

People overvalue herd immunity. It basically means that if most everybody has had it, we aren't much at risk, assuming they don't get it again. It's akin to moving on with life after full apocalypse.
It also presumes that herd immunity will even be a thing for this specific virus; it also presumes that mutations won't happen. Both of which are very rash assumptions.

All around...hoping for herd immunity is great; but it is akin to holding your hands together and wishing for a problem to go away.
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Old 07-10-20, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
I don't see myself going to a concert like event until a proven vaccine or instant accurate testing at the door. Maybe by late 2021.
I've been working in the entertainment biz for years...and this is the straw that makes me really want out. Even chopping venue capacities by 75% ain't enough to make me feel safe with my health to go back to work. And I'm relatively young and healthy.
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Old 07-11-20, 04:04 PM
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The expectation of herd immunity did not work well for Sweden and has backfired to the point that Swedes are restricted from entering other nearby countries.

Last edited by berner; 07-12-20 at 07:52 AM. Reason: spelling
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Old 07-11-20, 06:11 PM
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I would have taken the refunds.
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Old 07-11-20, 08:17 PM
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Yup I’m thinking I should have opted for the refunds then see what happens. I might get refunds on rest of the concerts when it becomes available.
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Old 07-12-20, 04:38 AM
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The 1918 flu pandemic lasted a few years before it was considered over. Depending on mutations, vaccines, effective acute illness treatments, etc., realistically we're looking at another 2-3 years before COVID-19 is "finished."

Judging from the data, healthy kids and young adults are at pretty low risk. They could resume normal life now... if not for the contact spreading to older and more vulnerable people. Grandparents. Patients of younger nurses and doctors.

I've already seen skepticism and denialism among nurses and doctors who believe it's a hoax or exaggerated, or that it can be treated with some voodoo potion and lectures about religion, patriotism and saving the economy. One of my friends who works in health care (with very vulnerable kids) breathlessly share the latest videos and blogs from these politicized denialist doctors. One would be bad enough but apparently there are dozens, perhaps hundreds, of doctors and nurses who don't take the pandemic seriously.

That's going to be the main risk to the vulnerable and elderly population. Even if they self isolate and ride this out, they'd still be at risk from younger medical practitioners who don't take it seriously enough.

If you're over age 60 or have comorbidities -- primarily obesity, diabetes, heart or lung disease -- you're pretty much on your own. The US will resume normal activities by early 2021, and probably sooner. The vulnerable demographic will be sacrificed through neglect to salvage the economy. As the economy collapses medical care for most COVID-19 patients over age 60 will be reduced to palliative care, not efforts at cures.
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Old 07-12-20, 05:52 AM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
The 1918 flu pandemic lasted a few years before it was considered over. Depending on mutations, vaccines, effective acute illness treatments, etc., realistically we're looking at another 2-3 years before COVID-19 is "finished."

Judging from the data, healthy kids and young adults are at pretty low risk. They could resume normal life now... if not for the contact spreading to older and more vulnerable people. Grandparents. Patients of younger nurses and doctors.

I've already seen skepticism and denialism among nurses and doctors who believe it's a hoax or exaggerated, or that it can be treated with some voodoo potion and lectures about religion, patriotism and saving the economy. One of my friends who works in health care (with very vulnerable kids) breathlessly share the latest videos and blogs from these politicized denialist doctors. One would be bad enough but apparently there are dozens, perhaps hundreds, of doctors and nurses who don't take the pandemic seriously.

That's going to be the main risk to the vulnerable and elderly population. Even if they self isolate and ride this out, they'd still be at risk from younger medical practitioners who don't take it seriously enough.

If you're over age 60 or have comorbidities -- primarily obesity, diabetes, heart or lung disease -- you're pretty much on your own. The US will resume normal activities by early 2021, and probably sooner. The vulnerable demographic will be sacrificed through neglect to salvage the economy. As the economy collapses medical care for most COVID-19 patients over age 60 will be reduced to palliative care, not efforts at cures.
Issues are:

A) Those comorbidities cover a ton of people of all ranges. Heart disease alone is 20 million people 20 or older; top cause of death in the USA normally.. diabetes, about 30%...obesity 40+% among adults alone? 40 million adults still smoke; and no one knows about "vaping" and this disease (it ofc isn't a good idea)....yea there's some overlap among those populations....Recent research suggest asthma doesn't increase COVID-19 risk; which is good because there are a **** ton of people in the USA with asthma.
B) Healthy kids and adults...there aren't alot of those. See the comorbidity numbers above.
C) Then you have the anvti-vaccine brigade
D) You have the older demographic who are at the "oh screw it" stage of life and don't mask up because they either don't care about themselves or are back to being "invincible"...NVM that the point of a mask isn't about personal protection of themselves; but societal protection from the infected person.
E) You have the legion of covidiots in the USA.
F) Rural America--where there are not doctors or hospitals to even diagnose these things. Here in Nebraska there are several entire counties with only a very-lonely R.N. for an entire county, if that.

Here in Nebraska, just yesterday there was the Shrine-Bowl H.S. full-contact football game. No masks among the parents in the crowd--at all. No masks among the refs. No masks on the players on the sidelines. Full-contact football. Hugging/chest-bumps all the stuff you associate with a football game. I expect in 2 weeks we'll be hearing about that being a spreading event.

A few weeks ago, my genius niece thought it would be great to go to Estes Park on a road Trip with friends. Then came back in town to meet up with sorority sisters, again friends-in-a-car road-trip style. Guess what? She got back home and one of her friends was infected.
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Old 07-12-20, 07:49 AM
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They haven't developed vaccines for AIDS, SARS, MERS yet, assuming one will be developed for a COVID 19 is a huge test of faith. Especially when people remember the problems associated with the Hong King Flu and Swine Flu vaccines.
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Old 07-12-20, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti View Post
I've been working in the entertainment biz for years...and this is the straw that makes me really want out. Even chopping venue capacities by 75% ain't enough to make me feel safe with my health to go back to work. And I'm relatively young and healthy.
I hear ya! I'm an aging musician who's decided to drop out of the music scene due to Covid-19 while the rest of the guys in the band (all older as well) have proceeded to march forward into this madness without me. While I love playing music - been doing it for well over 50 years - being in crowded venues of any kind just doesn't sound appealing at all these days.
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Old 07-12-20, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post

Judging from the data, healthy kids and young adults are at pretty low risk.
That the official stance of the government in my state. But these are folks whose judgement and veracity has been suspect in the past. It is true the we see thus far they are at low risk of death. But there may be other negative long term outcomes where the risk to youth is greater. We're told it's a good thing that the majority of hospitalizations are now people under 35, but that does mean these younger folks are being impacted severely enough to require hospitalization. And some medical professionals are quite fearful that they are seeing indications of long term lung damage. So I'm not sure we really have the data to reach the conclusion that the risk is low.
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Old 07-13-20, 05:39 PM
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Yeah, I'm thinking 2021 will be a different flavor of the same old pandemic. I'm 62, BMI of 22, road cyclist since the 1970's, & in excellent health. I've adjusted my expectations in regard to travel and recreation. No cycling trips to Colorado or Italy this year and probably next. No indoor music. I don't think I'd do much different if I were 35.

More outdoor recreation, more gardening. Important for everyone to take care of themselves and their loved ones, both physically and mentally. This is going to be a marathon, not a sprint.

Stay well.
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Old 07-16-20, 02:29 AM
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I’m just sick of those psychic vampires always trying to steal energy. I find cranking up Slayer to high decibels disrupts their place in space and time and they become very angry. They do the typical poltergeist antics like throwing items around basically throwing a supernatural tantrum. The aggressive angry music waves transcends the inter dimensional realms. The negative entities can’t handle it. Works every time a ghost comes around looking for mischief.
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Old 07-16-20, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
Iím just sick of those psychic vampires always trying to steal energy. I find cranking up Slayer to high decibels disrupts their place in space and time and they become very angry. They do the typical poltergeist antics like throwing items around basically throwing a supernatural tantrum. The aggressive angry music waves transcends the inter dimensional realms. The negative entities canít handle it. Works every time a ghost comes around looking for mischief.

Weird. Up until this post I was certain that itís IMPOSSIBLE to get wrecked on Coors Light.
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Old 07-16-20, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
Yup, it looks that way. But I really donít know. I can only read and try to make my own analysis. Good thing I can ride my bike in the boonies or I would go insane. At some point I wonít give a F if I catch it or not. Hopefully I will never reach that point. I guess we will see what happens.
Same here.
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