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Some say the end is near

Old 11-10-20, 06:12 PM
  #51  
Chinghis
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What makes me wonder about this vaccine is that they have never found a vaccine for any of the coronaviruses. OK, so for sars-cov-1 they may have been successful eventually, but they pretty much quit working on it when it subsided. I'm gonna have to look and see what allowed them to make this breakthrough. Remember that line in original Star Trek - they still don't have a cure for the common cold (a coronavirus) in the 23rd century.

Next question is, how lucky do you feel? 90% is pretty good, right? But I've played a lot of board games, and when you don't want to roll a certain percentage, you usually do. I have a feeling that if/when I get vaccinated and start going to crowded areas, I'm still going to wear a face mask. Ten percent is not an insignificant percentage chance. I also heard something to the effect that this vaccine apparently "prevents symptomatic cases" 90% of the time. So, in that case, people will still be carrying it and spreading it, just not getting sick, correct?

I dunno, I refuse to get my hopes up. I'm pretty much reconciled to the idea of wearing a mask for the rest of my life.
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Old 11-10-20, 09:00 PM
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I believe we can slow viruses and diseases down. But nature is cruel and there will always be something nasty and insidious trying to do us all in. We all have an expiration date .....
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Old 11-11-20, 05:59 AM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
I believe we can slow viruses and diseases down. But nature is cruel and there will always be something nasty and insidious trying to do us all in. We all have an expiration date .....

True, but the real issue with this virus is that the surge of infections can be so big that it overwhelms the entire medical system so that the fatality rates of all sorts of nasty things skyrocket.

The infection is a minor health event for the large majority of people who contract it, this could end with herd immunity through vaccination and/or treatment modalities that prevent it from being life threatening.

I agree we will continue to be mortals, I just want to be a mortal who doesn't have to consider eating at a restaurant a round of Russian roulette.
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Old 11-11-20, 11:42 AM
  #54  
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Texas has a major spike especially in El Paso. Time to take this serious again after being distracted by the election. Long bike ride this afternoon to clear my mind will be good medicine.
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Old 11-11-20, 01:21 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by Chinghis View Post
What makes me wonder about this vaccine is that they have never found a vaccine for any of the coronaviruses. OK, so for sars-cov-1 they may have been successful eventually, but they pretty much quit working on it when it subsided. I'm gonna have to look and see what allowed them to make this breakthrough. Remember that line in original Star Trek - they still don't have a cure for the common cold (a coronavirus) in the 23rd century.

Next question is, how lucky do you feel? 90% is pretty good, right? But I've played a lot of board games, and when you don't want to roll a certain percentage, you usually do. I have a feeling that if/when I get vaccinated and start going to crowded areas, I'm still going to wear a face mask. Ten percent is not an insignificant percentage chance. I also heard something to the effect that this vaccine apparently "prevents symptomatic cases" 90% of the time. So, in that case, people will still be carrying it and spreading it, just not getting sick, correct?

I dunno, I refuse to get my hopes up. I'm pretty much reconciled to the idea of wearing a mask for the rest of my life.
OK, in answer to my own question ... It is a new technology that's being used in this virus, at least on humans:
BioNTech used a technology that had never been approved for use in people. It takes genetic material called messenger RNA and injects it into muscle cells, which treat it like instructions for building a protein — a protein found on the surface of the coronavirus. The proteins then stimulate the immune system and are believed to result in long-lasting protection against the virus.
(NYTimes, 11/9/20, if you can get there.)

So, that at least makes me feel better about how they've been able to develop this so quickly, when we've tried things for years with no results.
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Old 11-11-20, 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Chinghis View Post
OK, in answer to my own question ... It is a new technology that's being used in this virus, at least on humans:
(NYTimes, 11/9/20, if you can get there.)

So, that at least makes me feel better about how they've been able to develop this so quickly, when we've tried things for years with no results.
Why do people keep saying there has never been a vaccine against a coronavirus? There are vaccines against animal coronaviruses. A vaccine was developed against SARS, but the disease was suppressed and disappeared before the vaccine was fully tested. I don't know if it was tested in humans, I read some accounts that say yes it was tested for safety in China, others say it was only tested in animals. I can't be bothered to track it down further.
I don't know if anybody has ever tried to develop a vaccine against any of the corona viruses that cause the common cold. I suspect not as it wouldn't be worth the enormous cost.

As far as I understand this vaccine, it aims to develop antibodies against the spike protein of the coronavirus. Apparently all of the vaccines in development are targeting the spike protein, the difference is they are using different methods to achieve this. So the expectation is that most of them will probably work to some extent, as they are all targetting the same thing.
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Old 11-16-20, 06:46 AM
  #57  
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Early Data Show Moderna’s Coronavirus Vaccine Is 94.5% Effective

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/h...a-vaccine.html
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Old 11-17-20, 12:23 AM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by Chinghis View Post
OK, in answer to my own question ... It is a new technology that's being used in this virus, at least on humans:
(NYTimes, 11/9/20, if you can get there.)

So, that at least makes me feel better about how they've been able to develop this so quickly, when we've tried things for years with no results.
I don't think anybody has been trying to make a vaccine for the common cold for years.
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Old 11-17-20, 06:59 PM
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Here is an article on a potential common cold vaccine, from 2017.
https://www.sciencealert.com/a-scien...n-cold-vaccine
Vaccines target a specific virus or pathogen. One difficulty with developing a vaccine for the common cold is there are at least 200 different viruses that can cause cold symptoms, including rhinovirus, coronavirus, adenoviruses, and parainfluenza.1
Rhinovirus makes up about 75% of colds. Still, there are more than 150 strains of it circulating at the same time.

At this time, there is currently no way for one vaccine to protect against all possible strains that can cause the common cold.
https://www.verywellhealth.com/why-t...on-cold-770451
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Old 11-17-20, 09:22 PM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post

The video the world has longed to see... Covid vaccines rolling off the Pfizer production line in thousands of tiny bottles as professor claims Oxford-Astra Zeneca shot will be rolled out by DECEMBER

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tion-line.html
I'm hoping that it will be a nationwide success without reporting any side-effetcs. Please let me be right.
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Old 11-18-20, 10:43 AM
  #61  
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An interesting article on the bigger picture of vaccine and other drug development and incentives for Big Pharma. Well worth reading.It had this to say about the SARS vaccine:
Coming back to Owen Jones’s article, it’s worth noting what I think is a factual error. It’s a minor one, but I think it’s instructive. He says that vaccine companies “abandoned” research into a vaccine for Sars in 2003 because it was not “immediately profitable”. But as I understand it, the reason that the pharma industry stopped work on a Sars vaccine was because Sars (somewhat mysteriously) disappeared. If people weren’t getting infected, then you couldn’t tell if your vaccine stopped infections. In fact, Mike Osterholm, the US epidemiologist, says that the pharma industry invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Sars vaccine research, and then when it went away, the US government and philanthropic agencies left them “holding the bag”, and wary about future investments.
Unherd
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Old 11-18-20, 12:52 PM
  #62  
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Pfizer will seek FDA approval for COVID-19 vaccine in DAYS as final trial analysis shows it is 95% effective... days after Moderna's breakthrough

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...orization.html
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Old 11-18-20, 01:09 PM
  #63  
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My concern (prediction?) about the Pfizer vaccine is the cold storage and handling issue. Can we both get massive numbers of doses out over the entire country and keep it all below -112F. That is a lot to ask. I see the Moderna vaccine as a far more viable solution. 4F colder than my freezer sounds real world doable.

That said, we will need both in huge quantities. I just see a fair number of vaccinated people getting sick because the Pfizer vaccine saw too high a temperature. It is a given that many of those vaccinated are going to behave like they are immune and will scream when they get sick (or others will scream for them). This isn't going to be a cakewalk. We will get to see humanity at its worst.
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Old 11-19-20, 09:57 PM
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BREAKING NEWS: Pfizer will file for emergency FDA approval of its 95% effective vaccine TOMORROW - but Dr. Fauci warns Americans to keep wearing masks and says: 'If the cavalry is on the way, you don't stop shooting'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...n-vaccine.html
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Old 11-21-20, 10:29 AM
  #65  
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I read somewhere that emergency approval will take at least three weeks.
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Old 11-21-20, 02:53 PM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
You were accused of "making stuff up.". It's very clear that's what you did. And it's a very stupid thing to do. You made up the possibility of clouds of virus blowing from town to town.
Again, false.

Didn't make up a thing. Didn't propose a thing. Didn't claim anything was happening, or that any claim out there was what I was passing along.

Simply questioned how little is known about the survivability of this thing out in the wild. To my knowledge, there has been no clear indication of how far far enough away is. To the point we're getting edicts on not being outside at all, not being allowed by our governments to exercise, etc. Point being, they've no clue; they're grasping at straws, hoping it'll be enough. Based on not knowing.

As for survivability, just the other day there was a news short on the radio about viruses and bacteria that are found in the atmosphere, far above cities, in locales where such stuff clearly had traveled great distances. Hitching a ride with the water vapor/droplets in the atmosphere, on other particles, or seemingly unattached to anything else. No knowing how protected the covid thing might be, in such an environment, when other viruses and bacteria have been found to survive up there after floating along for however long.

Again, point being, that it is unclear just how survivable little critters such as covid can be, or how far they might be capable of going before expiring. It's far to novel to know.

I simply wondered out loud about how long something could survive in the wild, blown about. (Referenced the particles from Asia to the Americas as an example of how stuff can flow with the winds; not as a claim this could do the same thing for such distances.)

Surmising <> claiming.
Surmising = wondering, when so little is actually known for a fact about this thing.

Mischaracterizing it doesn't make it something it wasn't.

Unless wondering out loud is to be verboten and taboo on the forum. If you want that, ask management.
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Old 11-21-20, 04:08 PM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
Again, false.

Didn't make up a thing. Didn't propose a thing. Didn't claim anything was happening, or that any claim out there was what I was passing along.

Simply questioned how little is known about the survivability of this thing out in the wild. To my knowledge, there has been no clear indication of how far far enough away is. To the point we're getting edicts on not being outside at all, not being allowed by our governments to exercise, etc. Point being, they've no clue; they're grasping at straws, hoping it'll be enough. Based on not knowing.

As for survivability, just the other day there was a news short on the radio about viruses and bacteria that are found in the atmosphere, far above cities, in locales where such stuff clearly had traveled great distances. Hitching a ride with the water vapor/droplets in the atmosphere, on other particles, or seemingly unattached to anything else. No knowing how protected the covid thing might be, in such an environment, when other viruses and bacteria have been found to survive up there after floating along for however long.

Again, point being, that it is unclear just how survivable little critters such as covid can be, or how far they might be capable of going before expiring. It's far to novel to know.

I simply wondered out loud about how long something could survive in the wild, blown about. (Referenced the particles from Asia to the Americas as an example of how stuff can flow with the winds; not as a claim this could do the same thing for such distances.)

Surmising <> claiming.
Surmising = wondering, when so little is actually known for a fact about this thing.

Mischaracterizing it doesn't make it something it wasn't.

Unless wondering out loud is to be verboten and taboo on the forum. If you want that, ask management.

Sorry, but that's just stupid. Enough is known about this virus to say to an absolute certainty clouds of COVID aren't raining down from the sky.
​​​​
If you engage in stupid speculation in public, expect to have it criticized. That also is not verboten. If you want that to be forbidden, ask the management.
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Old 11-21-20, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
Again, false.
Think out loud all you want, follow forum guidelines. I suspect there is vastly more known by the scientific/medical community working around the clock fighting this pandemic than your short news clips might reveal, but you have to trust them. I truly wish you well.
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Old 11-23-20, 02:25 AM
  #69  
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Oxford and AstraZeneca announce their vaccine is up to 90% effective and can be stored in a normal fridge - in boost for the government which has ordered 100million doses

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...effective.html
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Old 11-23-20, 03:44 AM
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Is there any information about the long-term antibody titers of the various vaccines? I think most of them have been in testing for 3 or 4 months, and should be long enough to observe the changes in the titers over time.
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Old 11-23-20, 08:59 AM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post

Oxford and AstraZeneca announce their vaccine is up to 90% effective and can be stored in a normal fridge - in boost for the government which has ordered 100million doses

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...effective.html
This one is interesting in that they had two dosing regimes and the lower dose regime had greater efficacy.

What was announced today is that they have quite different results for two different dosing regimens. This interim analysis was run when 131 cases had been accrued across trials in the UK, Brazil, and South Africa across about 24,000 trial participants (treatment and control groups). In the treatment group, 8,895 participants received two full doses of the vaccine, spaced one month apart, and 2,741 patients got a half dose at first, followed by a full dose a month later. And the efficacy rates for these two dosing regimes were very different: 62% for the two-full-dose group and 90% for the half/full group. I do not see a breakdown of how those 131 cases partitioned across the two groups, but the overall N has to be higher for the first, doesn’t it? I’d like to know what the statistics are for the 90% efficacy number, for sure.
62% would have seemed good two weeks ago, but now we are expecting 90% efficacy.

Derek Lowe speculates on the discrepancy

Why might there be such a significant split in efficacy? My own wild guess is that perhaps the two-full-dose protocol raised too many antibodies to the adenovirus vector itself, and made the second dose less effective. This has always been a concern with the viral-vector idea. It is, in fact, why this effort is using a chimpanzee adenovirus – because humans haven’t been exposed to it yet. Earlier work in this field kicked off with more common human-infective adenoviruses (particularly Ad5), but there are significant numbers of people in most global populations who have already had that viral infection and have immune memory for it. Dosing people with an Ad5 vector would then run into patients whose immune systems slap down the vaccine before it has a chance to work. That’s not the case for a chimpanzee-infecting form, naturally (few if any people have ever been exposed to that one!) but the two-dose regime may have run into just that problem. Immunology being what it is, though, there are surely other explanations, but that’s the one that occurs to me. Update: there’s always the outside nasty chance that the smaller N in the 90% group is giving a number that won’t hold up. I would hope this isn’t the case, but without a better look at the statistics, it’s not possible to rule that out.
So still good news, but like so many things in life, more data makes things more confusing.


In the Pipeline
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Old 11-23-20, 06:16 PM
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More comment on the AstraZeneca vax:
If a final analysis, conducted after the inclusion of additional data, concludes the vaccine’s actual efficacy is around 70%, that could be a problem.

“If it’s 70%, then we’ve got a dilemma,” said Fauci. “Because what are you going to do with the 70% when you’ve got two [vaccines] that are 95%? Who are you going to give a vaccine like that to?”

The problem was also flagged in an analysis by Geoffrey Porges of the investment bank Leerink. “We believe that this product will never be licensed in the US,” Porges wrote.
Stat news
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Old 11-24-20, 12:53 AM
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Dosing ERROR by researchers in the AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine trial boosted its success rate to 90%, firm’s vice-president reveals

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...cess-rate.html
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Old 11-24-20, 04:07 AM
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Moderna's chief medical officer says that vaccine trial results only show that they prevent people from getting severely sick — not necessarily that recipients won't still be able to transmit the virus

https://www.businessinsider.com/mode...erview-2020-11
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Old 11-24-20, 01:23 PM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Sorry, but that's just stupid. Enough is known about this virus to say to an absolute certainty clouds of COVID aren't raining down from the sky.
Didn't say "clouds" of anything were raining down from the sky.

Just pointed out the simple fact that live viruses and bacteria have indeed been found in the air column great distances beyond apparent sources. And that bioaerosols have contained infectious agents for hours (ie, with measles) in air.

As for the stupidity or intelligence of the questions that exist, it's still quite open as to how long this specific thing lasts, how far it can travel, what the viral load needs to be in order to risk transmission. Stupidly or intelligently, some of the top scientists in the world are examining exactly these questions.

Last month (Aug. 26-27, 2020), for example, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine held a workshop to discuss much of the latest research and results known to-date on SARS-CoV-2. They've published the proceedings, along with a Proceedings in Brief for general release: click.

In short, according to them: To-date, at least as of the end of October of this year, it's still unknown how long this thing can survive in bioaerosols, and still unknown how far it can travel while still remaining viable and infectious. (Though, clearly, distance and a number of other variables can greatly impact it.)

All I suggested was exactly that. That it's simply unknown, even with as much study as SARS-CoV-2 has gotten in the past year.

One can believe it's all stupidity to continue such questions in a situation where what's known is still open, not fully understood (by their own admission), and being evaluated. The scientists in the field are continuing to explore and question, for all of those reasons, as evidenced above, for whatever that's worth. Which people can accept or disregard.

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