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New bikes, and the creeping cost of entry to our favorite sport

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Old 04-01-21, 01:48 PM
  #51  
MRT2
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Originally Posted by cbrstar
If we put the $490 (2015) into the US Inflation Calculator it comes to $543.75. If the the new bike is $699 the difference is only $155.25 which I don't think you could buy the brakes and all the other upgrades for. And the thing is people want disk brakes so it's a selling feature.
Well, they certainly look cool, but as you pointed out, that should still not account for all the price increases, even with inflation.
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Old 04-01-21, 03:38 PM
  #52  
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Just looking at my bike, a 2019 Domane SL5, the 2021 version with identical components (as far as I can tell) has increased in price from $2700 to $3200. The frame is the same material but updated slightly. That's an 18.5% increase in two years.
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Old 04-01-21, 03:55 PM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by MRT2
You can do your own inflation math. And if you want to look up the links to 2020 models, you can do that yourself, too. (and you can stop moving the goal posts). It really doesn't matter what the prices were in 2020, since we are now living in the post COVID world. If the price increases are solely due to supply chain issues, well, I guess we can look forward to the big bike companies lowering their prices next year.
I guess I missed that memo. When did COVID end?
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Old 04-01-21, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Phil_gretz
I started riding 10-speed bikes sometime in the early 1970s. I was a high school freshman in 1974. If I were to buy a Fuji S-10S entry level Japanese bike in that era, it would have been ~$165 or so. The equivalent (but lesser) Motobecane or Peugeot would have been $140 or so. I don't remember what I paid for my Mercier, but I'm thinking $135-ish. But that was a while ago.

Fast forward to 2021. The cumulative inflation rate between 1974 and today is 464%. So, my $135 Mercier (with its steel crank and steel rims) would cost ~$760. Looking on bikes direct, you can get an aluminum bike with STIs, semi-aero rims and a carbon fork for $700.


8-speed Claris group, FSA crank, cartridge bb, dual pivot brakes. I'd say things are better today than they were when I started out.
Where did you purchase your bicycle & did you have to do the assembling? The online company does not have a showroom, retail clerks to coerce your purchase, & doesn't have the 7:20AM coffee ready for a 1:00pm walkin customer.

As with most price hikes, it'll be very unlikely for the current prices to comeback down to 1st quarter 2019 prices. If the current prices stay stable or by chance drop 10%, count your blessings.


If anyone is on the proverbial fence about buying a bicycle at this point in time, I'd pull the trigger now & sit tight waiting for the extended delivery schedule.
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Old 04-01-21, 03:57 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by tomato coupe
I guess I missed that memo. When did COVID end?
Did you check your spam folder?
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Old 04-01-21, 03:59 PM
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A few days ago I pulled into my driveway following a morning ride. A lady was walking her dog and asked to speak to me for a moment. Long story short she was looking for some advice on purchasing a good bike with the $400 CDN she had saved up.

I told her about the LBS where I had purchased mine, she said she had been there but they were too expensive. Somewhat embarrassed all I could suggest was purchasing something used and expect a tune up.

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Old 04-01-21, 04:03 PM
  #57  
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Originally Posted by Troul
Did you check your spam folder?
You're right, I found it. Apparently COVID ended last Wednesday, around 3:15p EDT. The same email informed me that the warranty on my car is about to expire.
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Old 04-01-21, 04:06 PM
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When people go to a bike store and see the prices. I am sure it turns many people off.
If you where not in the hobby an walked into a store an saw the prices. What would be your view. All hobbies are expensive. For sure I would alway suggest a used or vintage bike for a beginner not a new bike. So the access to try out the hobby is available.
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Old 04-01-21, 04:31 PM
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when the access to an entry level bicycle approaches the beater car price tag or one of the E-skeeters, the decision to go with what takes the least effort trumps all. So that kid or adult that might have been the next TdF icon, has been snuffed out by the price tag of an entry level bicycle.
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Old 04-01-21, 04:35 PM
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The bicycle industry is not different than the car, computer or cellphone industry.

Try to get a car with crank windows, manual HVAC controls and steel wheels. There's maybe a handfull of cars you can get for under $20,000 these days.

Try to get a cell phone that just makes calls and doesn't have internet or a camera in it.
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Old 04-01-21, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Troul
Where did you purchase your bicycle & did you have to do the assembling?
It was the bike boom. You could buy a 10-speed just about anywhere. I think I bought the Mercier at an Army surplus store. I was already wrenching at 15 years old...
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Old 04-01-21, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by MRT2
This is all true. But again, I am not comparing what you get now with what you got in 1978, inflation adjusted, but rather, what you get now compared to what you got 5 years ago. Inflation has not been much of a factor, income is not a factor, but something is going on.
On the other hand, that Schwinn Paramount that sold for around $800 to $900 in the late 1970s was selling for $175 in my hometown bike shop a year after I got my first high-end racing bike, around 1965. Effectively the same bike.

[Edit] And that $800 to $900 pricing was after Nixon's wage/price freeze (remember that?) and Ford's "Whip Inflation Now!" campaign (remember that?).

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Old 04-01-21, 05:54 PM
  #63  
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I have a 1963 Schwinn cruiser with 1 speed, that would be $343 in today's dollars. The Schwinn Huron 1 is practically the same bike for $279. There's a 3-speed version that compares to the 2-speed version of my cruiser, with a similar story about price. The Paramount road racer would be $1500 in today's dollars, and today's $1500 bike would have aluminum rims and crank, and much more snappy drivetrain and brakes.

https://www.schwinnbikes.com/collect...oducts/huron-1

Don't get me wrong, I do see the price of bikes as being off-putting to people, but it's also hard to choose a modest priced bike, or a used bike, if you don't know what you need or what's good.

In my view, the big problem is that we don't have a cycling culture. If this were a country where everybody rides a bike, a person would be able to shop for a bike with much greater confidence in terms of getting what they want, discerning quality, and so forth. They would also be able to locate and evaluate a used bike, and probably tune it up themselves.

Ignorance costs money. This is called an "information arbitrage." The less you know, the more you have to spend for the assurance that you're getting something good.
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Old 04-01-21, 06:53 PM
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most folks dont know much about vehicles & rely on "what they said" for the purchase. Does it get x mileage before needing to stop, does it have android auto, does it have back up beeping cam, does it do that thingy that does the one whizbang woo ahhh, bluetooth yes yes, hdmi is a plus, can I text muah bae thru the ever so distracting infotainment system... SOLD!

Mean while, the fine print states you must bring it in to a certified dealer for all services or the warranty is void. dun dun dunnnnn. OOPS! I no sees that when I was in awestruck from the gizmos... :sadface:
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Old 04-01-21, 07:57 PM
  #65  
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I fully understand the realites of the market and the many factors which influence both cost and pricing.

Even though I understand everything, it totally sucks and is really tough to accept.
That seems to be missing from some in this thread- its like they are analytical only and have no opinion on the reality that prices have increased significantly over the last 5 years.

Prices have outpaced inflation- zero debate.
I am not claiming its corporate greed from the brands. There are too many levels within the supply chain to simply blame the brand for being greedy. Pricing is way more complex.

At the mid-level for road bikes, and Ultegra drivetrain carbon frame road bike with stock wheels is significantly more expensive than the same bike 5 years ago. The tech is different- disc brakes and hydraulic braking being the main two differences, but its tough to say those differences have transformed cycling for most people. Yes yes, the changes are better for some in some situations.

I think part of the disconnect is that it's so difficult to compare road bikes from 5 years ago to now. Rim brakes are largely gone now so that change can make it murky and largely hide the chante in costs thru justifying 'well its hydraulic disc brakes'.


As a general comment, a Sora drivetrain aluminum frame carbon fork road bike shouldn't exceed $1200. It's not justifiable. It's a 5 year old drivetrain, wont use any innovative frame performance design, and there is nothing different except cable disc replaced caliper brakes which isn't an upgrade and doesn't cost more.
Meanwhile a Trek Domane Sora costs $1350.
A 2016 Trek 1.2 with Sora shifting cost $900. It had an fsa crank instead of Sora so that'd what...$930 if a Sora crank had been spec'd? That's $1020 in today's money when adjusted for inflation.
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Old 04-01-21, 08:19 PM
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what's slowly putting the nails in the bicycle industry's coffin, are the wild west of not setting hard standards for subassemblies of the main components. Too busy trying to 1upping one another that it's costing the consumer in the end,
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Old 04-01-21, 09:34 PM
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Originally Posted by MRT2
I agree, and yet, Trek, Specialized, Giant, all sell 7 speed bikes.
Yes they do, it is common in the industry to sell bikes at different price points. Just as it is for companies to make those components at different price points. It is just the facts of the biz. They know someone will buy the low end so they will make stuff for that, they will also make super expensive bikes that will belong to Doctors and Lawyers and Business Executives (and there all made out of ticky tacky and they all look just the same).
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Old 04-02-21, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr
I fully understand the realites of the market and the many factors which influence both cost and pricing.

Even though I understand everything, it totally sucks and is really tough to accept.
That seems to be missing from some in this thread- its like they are analytical only and have no opinion on the reality that prices have increased significantly over the last 5 years.
I think the OP drove many of those responses through his insistence (without much apparent understanding of the market realities) that entry-level bikes should cost less. It's pretty understandable that some posters offered analytical and empirical responses.

Not to dismay you by offering yet another analytical point, but I think the new bike market is reasonably competitive and efficient in an economic sense -- which means that most or all profitable market segments are probably being addressed at the lowest sustainable prices. In other words, if even entry-level bikes have things like disc brakes, that is likely because their consumers want them and are willing to pay for them. After all, the big companies (Trek, Spesh, etc) do market research, and they're not in the business of selling things that people don't want.
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Old 04-02-21, 08:07 AM
  #69  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr
I fully understand the realites of the market and the many factors which influence both cost and pricing.

Even though I understand everything, it totally sucks and is really tough to accept.
That seems to be missing from some in this thread- its like they are analytical only and have no opinion on the reality that prices have increased significantly over the last 5 years.

Prices have outpaced inflation- zero debate.
I am not claiming its corporate greed from the brands. There are too many levels within the supply chain to simply blame the brand for being greedy. Pricing is way more complex.

At the mid-level for road bikes, and Ultegra drivetrain carbon frame road bike with stock wheels is significantly more expensive than the same bike 5 years ago. The tech is different- disc brakes and hydraulic braking being the main two differences, but its tough to say those differences have transformed cycling for most people. Yes yes, the changes are better for some in some situations.

I think part of the disconnect is that it's so difficult to compare road bikes from 5 years ago to now. Rim brakes are largely gone now so that change can make it murky and largely hide the chante in costs thru justifying 'well its hydraulic disc brakes'.


As a general comment, a Sora drivetrain aluminum frame carbon fork road bike shouldn't exceed $1200. It's not justifiable. It's a 5 year old drivetrain, wont use any innovative frame performance design, and there is nothing different except cable disc replaced caliper brakes which isn't an upgrade and doesn't cost more.
Meanwhile a Trek Domane Sora costs $1350.
A 2016 Trek 1.2 with Sora shifting cost $900. It had an fsa crank instead of Sora so that'd what...$930 if a Sora crank had been spec'd? That's $1020 in today's money when adjusted for inflation.
And, for a time it seemed like better technology was trickling down to lower price points, even with inflation. I bought my Salsa Casserol with 9 speed Tiagra for $1,200 in 2012. Two years later, when I bought my wife a new bike, you could get a steel frame with carbon fork and 9 speed drivetrain for a little over $900. Yes, it was called Sora but for all intents and purposes, it was an upgrade over what I bought just a few years earlier at a 25% price reduction. These days, no more, unless you want to go with something like Bikes Direct and assemble the bike yourself sight unseen.
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Old 04-02-21, 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Gresp15C
I have a 1963 Schwinn cruiser with 1 speed, that would be $343 in today's dollars. The Schwinn Huron 1 is practically the same bike for $279. There's a 3-speed version that compares to the 2-speed version of my cruiser, with a similar story about price. The Paramount road racer would be $1500 in today's dollars, and today's $1500 bike would have aluminum rims and crank, and much more snappy drivetrain and brakes.

https://www.schwinnbikes.com/collect...oducts/huron-1

Don't get me wrong, I do see the price of bikes as being off-putting to people, but it's also hard to choose a modest priced bike, or a used bike, if you don't know what you need or what's good.

In my view, the big problem is that we don't have a cycling culture. If this were a country where everybody rides a bike, a person would be able to shop for a bike with much greater confidence in terms of getting what they want, discerning quality, and so forth. They would also be able to locate and evaluate a used bike, and probably tune it up themselves.

Ignorance costs money. This is called an "information arbitrage." The less you know, the more you have to spend for the assurance that you're getting something good.
Indeed this is true, and a useful retort to those who say newcomers can just go buy a used bike. I can go buy a used bike and have an idea if I am getting a good deal. Someone who knows nothing about bikes is taking a chance, or at least needs to go do some research.
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Old 04-02-21, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by MRT2
Indeed this is true, and a useful retort to those who say newcomers can just go buy a used bike. I can go buy a used bike and have an idea if I am getting a good deal. Someone who knows nothing about bikes is taking a chance, or at least needs to go do some research.
Okay, I guess I just can't quit this thread.

I do agree totally with this. I always have the same reaction to the routine recommendation for newbies to "just buy used bikes." People who want to get into the sport, and are buying nice bikes for the first time, benefit the most from a good shop's expertise in getting the right bike, right fit, right accessories (helmets, shoes, pedals, tail lights, whatever). I mean, shoot, since the pandemic started, there have been many threads started by people who bought (or were about to buy) used bikes that were obviously poor choices. A decent shop will steer a customer to the right bike, right off the bat.
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Old 04-02-21, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted by MRT2
If you believe we are living in the best of all possible worlds.
An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds.

A pessimist fears that this is true.

(There is also the option of purchasing second-hand.)
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Old 04-02-21, 08:49 AM
  #73  
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This seems like a weird thread for this point in time. Shops are trying to figure out where to get bikes and parts. Bike companies are trying to figure out how to make bikes. They are going to do some things that would seem incongruous to people that are stuck in a 2019 mindset, where the bike industry was suffering from oversupply and weak demand.

If you thought that prices were high before, this is not the time to go price shopping. Prices are going to be going up, as much as 25%, maybe more. It's pretty clear that the bike companies are scrambling to get parts, and that generally means they will have to cut corners and pay extra. So the retail prices are going up as a result. If anyone was around for the '70s bike boom, this is reminiscent of those times, with some shops selling at above retail and finding customers to buy. And the quality of some of those bikes was quite poor as compared to the same models before the boom.
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Old 04-02-21, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Koyote
Okay, I guess I just can't quit this thread.

I do agree totally with this. I always have the same reaction to the routine recommendation for newbies to "just buy used bikes." People who want to get into the sport, and are buying nice bikes for the first time, benefit the most from a good shop's expertise in getting the right bike, right fit, right accessories (helmets, shoes, pedals, tail lights, whatever). I mean, shoot, since the pandemic started, there have been many threads started by people who bought (or were about to buy) used bikes that were obviously poor choices. A decent shop will steer a customer to the right bike, right off the bat.
Finally something we agree on. Exactly a year ago, I steered an friend to a bike that was hanging in her mother's garage as a way to get out and ride during the early part of the pandemic, when gyms were closed down. She reached out to me because she knew I was a bike enthusiast, and was hoping to get new bikes for herself and her husband.

I walked her through the reality of what a quality bike would cost, and she quickly and selflessly decided she would get a new bike for her husband, and find something used for herself. About a week later, she told me she had not one, but two candidates for herself. One was a bike someone had dropped off that turned out to be a department store bike, and the other was an older bike her mom had from the 90s that turned out to be a Trek 820 or 830. I told her to give back the department store bike and fix up the Trek, which she did. But without me, she likely would have wasted time trying to fix up a department store bike.
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Old 04-02-21, 08:58 AM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by unterhausen
This seems like a weird thread for this point in time. Shops are trying to figure out where to get bikes and parts. Bike companies are trying to figure out how to make bikes. They are going to do some things that would seem incongruous to people that are stuck in a 2019 mindset, where the bike industry was suffering from oversupply and weak demand.

If you thought that prices were high before, this is not the time to go price shopping. Prices are going to be going up, as much as 25%, maybe more. It's pretty clear that the bike companies are scrambling to get parts, and that generally means they will have to cut corners and pay extra. So the retail prices are going up as a result. If anyone was around for the '70s bike boom, this is reminiscent of those times, with some shops selling at above retail and finding customers to buy. And the quality of some of those bikes was quite poor as compared to the same models before the boom.
Didn't the 70s bike boom turn into the bike bust a few years later?
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