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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

Old 11-06-19, 02:35 PM
  #51  
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Welp, by this point, it is clear that I cannot convince you that that the obstacles are surmountable, and you cannot convince me that they are not (what is that, like a quintuple negative?)

I already, very early on in this thread, backed off my 5 year prediction to level 4 (which is a pretty safe prediction, given that we're at level 4 now). I think level 5 will be technologically sound in like 10 years.

I am even more certain that, 10 years from now when I say 'look, here we are at level 5', you will say 'Muddy waters! That's not level 5! Your so-called level 5 car once pulled off the road in a construction zone engulfed in a blizzard!'

In the meantime, stay away from those bus shelters. Kill zones, all of them. The robocars are comin!
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Old 11-06-19, 02:37 PM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
How do you propose the testing be done? Just start making level 5 cars with no steering wheels or brakes and hope for the best?
Testing Level 4 vehicles is not offering Level 5 vehicles, nor is it any guarantee that it will bring forth the much desired goal of solving the difficult conditions of true Level 5 capability.

Volvo's assumption of liability no doubt will be accompanied with the provisio that the driver responds appropriately and quickly to the warnings produced by the Level 4 warning devices. Driver better not nap or read a book while operating this baby, just like any other Level 4 vehicle, see Uber - Level 4 -Tempe - pedestrian - inattentive driver - 2018.
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Old 11-06-19, 02:46 PM
  #53  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
ps I-Like-To-Bike, you seem angry that some of us are optimistic about automated cars. Why is that?
As far as I can tell, he's always angry about everything.
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Old 11-06-19, 03:06 PM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
As far as I can tell, he's always angry about everything.
OK, Happy Warrior, make an on topic prediction based on some evidence other than ad hominem arguments (your forte), your wishful thinking or the rehashing of promoters' hype about working on the problems of the "difficult conditions" found beyond the boundaries of Chandler, AZ. that human drivers of currently produced vehicles seem able to handle.
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Old 11-06-19, 03:13 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Testing Level 4 vehicles is not offering Level 5 vehicles, nor is it any guarantee that it will bring forth the much desired goal of solving the difficult conditions of true Level 5 capability.
It is a necessary milestone on the way to Level 5, to field Level 4 cars that can be put into a prototype Level 5 mode. And so what if Volvo requires driver attentiveness. That's part of the gig of testing prototypes

Volvo's assumption of liability no doubt will be accompanied with the provisio that the driver responds appropriately and quickly to the warnings produced by the Level 4 warning devices. Driver better not nap or read a book while operating this baby, just like any other Level 4 vehicle,

So what? They are not fielding Level 5 cars, they are fielding Prototype Level 5 cars. You expect them to promise "OK here's a car with a Level 5 system we know is not perfect, but after that Level 5 button is pushed, you go right ahead and take a nap, if it senses a problem, tries and fails to wake you up, and ends up crashing, that's ok, we got you covered"

And that article doesn't go into detail about the specifics of their claim to accept liability; presumably the 100 prototype drivers will have a contract that spells things out. Maybe even they do claim that, after the level 5 mode is activated, they guarantee they will drive safely or sense problems and stop safely. I don't know. (And you don't know)

see Uber - Level 4 -Tempe - pedestrian - inattentive driver - 2018.

Yup, Level 4. Or is it prototype level 5 (what's the difference?) 'Accept liability' includes 'take on the legal burden of proving it's somebody else's fault'. In that situation, Uber bears some responsibility for dialing down the lidar alert system that would have sensed the pedestrian and stopped (because it had been giving too many false alarms), the 'driver' bears more responsibility (assuming she had signed some sort of agreement that she would remain vigilant), and I place the majority of the blame on the woman who walked across the street at night away from intersections and streetlights and crosswalks into the path of a moving car.

I've seen the video, I'm not convinced I could have avoided crashing into her.

Last edited by RubeRad; 11-06-19 at 03:16 PM.
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Old 11-06-19, 07:50 PM
  #56  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
It is a necessary milestone on the way to Level 5, to field Level 4 cars that can be put into a prototype Level 5 mode. And so what if Volvo requires driver attentiveness. That's part of the gig of testing prototypes


So what? They are not fielding Level 5 cars, they are fielding Prototype Level 5 cars. You expect them to promise "OK here's a car with a Level 5 system we know is not perfect, but after that Level 5 button is pushed, you go right ahead and take a nap, if it senses a problem, tries and fails to wake you up, and ends up crashing, that's ok, we got you covered"

And that article doesn't go into detail about the specifics of their claim to accept liability; presumably the 100 prototype drivers will have a contract that spells things out. Maybe even they do claim that, after the level 5 mode is activated, they guarantee they will drive safely or sense problems and stop safely. I don't know. (And you don't know)


Yup, Level 4. Or is it prototype level 5 (what's the difference?) 'Accept liability' includes 'take on the legal burden of proving it's somebody else's fault'. In that situation, Uber bears some responsibility for dialing down the lidar alert system that would have sensed the pedestrian and stopped (because it had been giving too many false alarms), the 'driver' bears more responsibility (assuming she had signed some sort of agreement that she would remain vigilant), and I place the majority of the blame on the woman who walked across the street at night away from intersections and streetlights and crosswalks into the path of a moving car.

I've seen the video, I'm not convinced I could have avoided crashing into her.
The difference is that "level 4 vehicles that are prototype level 5" is a construct/figment of your imagination, level 4 vehicles are level 4 vehicles, period.

The video you presumably saw was from a cheap crap dash camera and no way represented what a human driver would have seen at the time, nor did accurately represent what or when the Uber sensors actually detected before it struck the woman.

No doubt the publicity hacks for Uber are pleased that they have been successful in convincing the gullible to be satisfied with blaming the victim of Uber's corporate negligence and the AZ government's deliberate decision to provide no oversight of the Uber experiments on its streets, as well as official whitewashing by the local police chief of the fatality by rushing to blame the victim.

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Old 11-07-19, 04:46 AM
  #57  
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Yeah, ILTB is right... heck I doubt even a Level 5 self driving car 10 years from now will swerve to avoid a falling plane...

Thursday night, Randy Byrd was driving to physical therapy, down a street he’d traveled on hundreds of times.

“Out of the corner of my eye, I see something large coming towards me. I don’t even think I processed that it was a plane,” Byrd said.

Byrd only had seconds to react.

“I just hit the gas as hard as I could. I think that saved my life because that gave me
three or four extra feet,” Byrd said.
https://www.wdtn.com/news/local-news...-in-disbelief/

I'll be satisfied however, if I can just get an occasional low speed, short distance lift from time to time. Or maybe make a long distance highway drive with out becoming mind numbingly tired.

I really don't expect too many planes falling from the sky.

Last edited by genec; 11-07-19 at 05:14 AM.
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Old 11-07-19, 07:22 AM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
I'll be satisfied however, if I can just get an occasional low speed, short distance lift from time to time. Or maybe make a long distance highway drive with out becoming mind numbingly tired.
No human driven taxis in San Diego?

Did you ever try listening to audiobooks or podcasts, you might find it will stir up your numbness?

or
Try long distance buses, trains or planes that connect with San Diego, or find a friend or companion to share long distance drives.
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Old 11-07-19, 08:43 AM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
No human driven taxis in San Diego?

Did you ever try listening to audiobooks or podcasts, you might find it will stir up your numbness?

or
Try long distance buses, trains or planes that connect with San Diego, or find a friend or companion to share long distance drives.
Nice try, the answer is audio books do not relieve the concentration (in fact, distract from it) to be a good driver. And busses, taxis and planes are rarely available on my schedule.

I have actually arrived at airports, called local taxi companies and have been told... "not at this hour." Yup, strange as it seems...

And the issue is not San Diego, but where I connect.

Are taxis available out in your neck of the woods at all hours? How about buses, planes.

In San Diego, planes don't fly in or out after 11:00PM at night.
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Old 11-07-19, 10:07 AM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
OK, Happy Warrior, make an on topic prediction based on some evidence other than ad hominem arguments (your forte), your wishful thinking or the rehashing of promoters' hype about working on the problems of the "difficult conditions" found beyond the boundaries of Chandler, AZ. that human drivers of currently produced vehicles seem able to handle.
In 10 years there will be robo-cars that will be able to handle any conditions a human driven vehicle can handle.
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Old 11-07-19, 11:20 AM
  #61  
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All right, that settles it.

Thanks Tyrion
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Old 11-07-19, 11:30 AM
  #62  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
In 10 years there will be robo-cars that will be able to handle any conditions a human driven vehicle can handle.
Actually, I was hoping for better...
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Old 11-07-19, 11:34 AM
  #63  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
As far as I can tell, he's always angry about everything.
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
OK, Happy Warrior, make an on topic prediction based on some evidence other than ad hominem arguments (your forte), your wishful thinking or the rehashing of promoters' hype about working on the problems of the "difficult conditions" found beyond the boundaries of Chandler, AZ. that human drivers of currently produced vehicles seem able to handle.
You're proving me right.

I wish you weren't constantly attacking people every time you posted.

Hugs.
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Old 11-07-19, 11:35 AM
  #64  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Actually, I was hoping for better...
Self driving cars will be better than people at driving like computers are better than people at remembering.
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Old 11-07-19, 11:40 AM
  #65  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Actually, I was hoping for better...
In 10 years robo-cars will certainly be better in terms of safety and efficiency.
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Old 11-07-19, 11:40 AM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
All right, that settles it.

Thanks Tyrion
You're welcome. We can close the thread now.
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Old 11-07-19, 12:07 PM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Nice try, the answer is audio books do not relieve the concentration (in fact, distract from it) to be a good driver. And busses, taxis and planes are rarely available on my schedule.

I have actually arrived at airports, called local taxi companies and have been told... "not at this hour." Yup, strange as it seems...

And the issue is not San Diego, but where I connect.

Are taxis available out in your neck of the woods at all hours? How about buses, planes.

In San Diego, planes don't fly in or out after 11:00PM at night.
I can see now that life must be a living hell whenever a traveler has a yen to travel at any time day or night and isn't in the mood to drive his/her own vehicle or a rental vehicle. Taxi/public transportation may not available for such a spontaneous traveler's beck and call at a moment's notice whenever/wherever the traveler happens to be. Yes, it must be very difficult for a traveler who has made no arrangement for transportation or even thought about transportation options prior to departing or arriving on long distance trips.

Yes, now I understand the impetus for investors to throw billions of dollars at self driving vehicle projects trying to fill a travel need not being currently filled by current options. And all along I thought is was just to enable taxi companies like Uber, Lyft, et al. to eliminate drivers and somehow (usually by ignoring absorbing the expenses of owning and operating the vehicles) to get out of the red ink they are drowning in.
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Old 11-07-19, 12:19 PM
  #68  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Self driving cars will be better than people at driving like computers are better than people at remembering.
You can count on Google et al. to remember forever everywhere you go and everything you do in their self driving vehicles, and sell whatever personal data it collects to any organization that may be interested and willing to pay.
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Old 11-07-19, 01:01 PM
  #69  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
In 10 years there will be robo-cars that will be able to handle any conditions a human driven vehicle can handle.
Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
In 10 years robo-cars will certainly be better in terms of safety and efficiency.

Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
You're welcome. We can close the thread now.
I agree, your predictions have furnished just about all the definitive "evidence" and "facts" that are likely to appear on this thread that would indicate just how soon one or a million driver less [Level 5] vehicles will be available for the general public to summon/hail or buy.
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Old 11-07-19, 01:13 PM
  #70  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
I agree, your predictions have furnished just about all the definitive "evidence" and "facts" that are likely to appear on this thread that would indicate just how soon one or a million driver less [Level 5] vehicles will be available for the general public to summon/hail or buy.
This subject seems to get you worked up.
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Old 11-07-19, 01:15 PM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
You can count on Google et al. to remember forever everywhere you go and everything you do in their self driving vehicles, and sell whatever personal data it collects to any organization that may be interested and willing to pay.
Actually, I think maybe (spurred by facebook publicity issues) the public might be waking up about the value of personal data, and we might be on the verge of a revolution in terms of user control and monetization of their own personal data.

Let's fight about it! I say in 5 years everybody's personal data will be 100% secure, and every individual will be completely able to expose personal data at whatever granularity they are comfortable with, receiving money for it on a fair and transparent open market for data

OK I-Like-To-Bike, your turn to be grumpy
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Old 11-07-19, 01:21 PM
  #72  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
I can see now that life must be a living hell whenever a traveler has a yen to travel at any time day or night and isn't in the mood to drive his/her own vehicle or a rental vehicle. Taxi/public transportation may not available for such a spontaneous traveler's beck and call at a moment's notice whenever/wherever the traveler happens to be. Yes, it must be very difficult for a traveler who has made no arrangement for transportation or even thought about transportation options prior to departing or arriving on long distance trips.

Yes, now I understand the impetus for investors to throw billions of dollars at self driving vehicle projects trying to fill a travel need not being currently filled by current options. And all along I thought is was just to enable taxi companies like Uber, Lyft, et al. to eliminate drivers and somehow (usually by ignoring absorbing the expenses of owning and operating the vehicles) to get out of the red ink they are drowning in.
Yup, just like all those investors that threw millions of dollars into systems so they could have instant light... rather than stumble in the dark, knock over the oil lamps and curse the darkness...

OMG, electricity!

Stick to your candles ludite.
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Old 11-07-19, 01:24 PM
  #73  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
You can count on Google et al. to remember forever everywhere you go and everything you do in their self driving vehicles, and sell whatever personal data it collects to any organization that may be interested and willing to pay.
Why does that bother YOU so? Are you afraid someday your horse will report your buggy location?
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Old 11-07-19, 02:02 PM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Actually, I think maybe (spurred by facebook publicity issues) the public might be waking up about the value of personal data, and we might be on the verge of a revolution in terms of user control and monetization of their own personal data.
Not everyone is that aware, or concerned about the issue involved , see https://www.bikeforums.net/21198957-post74.html. As long as it is shiny and full of promises latest thing, they are all in.

Facebook is hardly the only privacy pirate, though it may be the most successful in monetizing their user database booty. For more on how a company like Uber uses its user database as a weapon and tool for harassment against its employees, customers, critics or competitors, as well as perverse and kinky spying on same, read Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber, by Mike Issac https://www.amazon.com/Super-Pumped-Battle-Mike-Isaac
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Old 11-07-19, 02:02 PM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Actually, I think maybe (spurred by facebook publicity issues) the public might be waking up about the value of personal data, and we might be on the verge of a revolution in terms of user control and monetization of their own personal data.

Let's fight about it! I say in 5 years everybody's personal data will be 100% secure, and every individual will be completely able to expose personal data at whatever granularity they are comfortable with, receiving money for it on a fair and transparent open market for data

OK I-Like-To-Bike, your turn to be grumpy
Are you joking? No way will we have that much control over our data in 5 years.

(My turn to be grumpy.)
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